August 16, 2019

Dance Battle continues!

Mass. Sen. Elizabeth Warren: 'I don't march in the Boston Pride Parade. I dance'

August 16, 2019

Andrew Yang busts a move.

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1162142420647272452

Dance battle! Oh... it's on!

August 16, 2019

Where all the 2020 candidates have lived

Where all the 2020 presidential candidates have lived — and where none have
By Bonnie Berkowitz and Lauren Tierney

More than 110 U.S. towns and cities can claim that a 2020 presidential candidate has put down roots — or at least a security deposit — within its borders, according to Washington Post research and (most of) their campaigns.

Where the candidates have lived

Number of candidates: 1 --> 2-5 --> 6-14


On average, the 24 Democratic candidates and two Republicans, including President Trump, have lived in four states each (including the District). But there are 20 states that not one candidate has called home.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/29/where-all-presidential-candidates-have-lived-where-none-have/

August 15, 2019

So much cash on hand!

Five candidates have over $10 million cash on hand, three of those have over ~$20 million.

"Totals from official FEC reports Data is current as of 07/15/2019"

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/president/democratic-primary/candidates/fundraising-and-campaign-finance-tracker/

All of these campaigns are investing heavily on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire. Looking at these numbers, I can't help but feel Pete Buttigieg is going to do very well in both states, despite being relatively quiet in the polls recently.

Has there ever been this many candidates with this much money competing in a primary before?

August 15, 2019

YouGov Poll: Democratic Candidates Considered

The Economist/YouGov Poll
August 10 - 13, 2019 - 1500 US Adult citizens

Number of respondents 1500
1127 (Registered voters)
Margin of error ± 2.6% (adjusted for weighting)
± 3% (Registered voters)

19. Democratic candidates considered
Which candidate or candidates are you considering voting for in the Democratic Presidential primary or caucus in your state in 2020? (Select all that apply)
Asked of those who say they will vote in the Democratic Presidential primary or caucus in 2020


Elizabeth Warren 50%

Joe Biden 47%

Kamala Harris 39%

Bernie Sanders 38%

Pete Buttigieg 31%

Cory Booker 23%

Beto O’Rourke 21%

Julian Castro 14%

Amy Klobuchar 12%

Andrew Yang 12%

Kirsten Gillibrand 9%

Tulsi Gabbard 8%

Tom Steyer 5%

Steve Bullock 4%

Marianne Williamson 4%

Steve Bullock 4%

Jay Inslee 4%

https://today.yougov.com/topics/economist/survey-results

The usual disclaimer: This poll is more than 6 months from the start of actual voting. The results of any single poll should not be overemphasized.

Cory Booker and Beto O'Rourke came in a very strong 6th and 7th, respectively. Perhaps out performing the conventional wisdom?

Lot's of food for thought for potential General Election ticket pairings in these results, perhaps?

August 14, 2019

YouGov Poll: Disappointed if Democratic Nominee

The Economist/YouGov Poll
August 10 - 13, 2019 - 1500 US Adult citizens

Number of respondents 1500
1127 (Registered voters)
Margin of error ± 2.6% (adjusted for weighting)
± 3% (Registered voters)


21. Disappointed if Democratic nominee
Are there any presidential candidates that you would be disappointed if they became the Democratic nominee?

Joe Biden 22%

Bernie Sanders 20%

Tulsi Gabbard 20%

Tom Steyer 18%

Amy Klobuchar 14%

Kamala Harris 14%

Andrew Yang 13%

Cory Booker 13%

Beto O’Rourke 12%

Julian Castro 12%

Pete Buttigieg 11%

Elizabeth Warren 9%

https://today.yougov.com/topics/economist/survey-results

The usual disclaimer: This poll is more than 6 months from the start of actual voting. The results of any single poll should not be overemphasized.

Actually, Warren would disappoint the LEAST respondents out of ALL the 24 Democratic candidates in the poll.

That's starting to sound like she might just be the consensus candidate that can bring all factions of the Democratic base together.

August 14, 2019

538 CORN POLL LIE EXPOSED !!!!1!1!!!

Previously 538 posted:

0 percent

At the Iowa State Fair, they administer a decidedly nonscientific poll whereby fair goers drop a corn kernel into a jar corresponding to their preferred presidential candidate. In this decidedly nonscientific poll, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio registered 0 percent. For whatever it’s worth, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg led the way with 24, 16 and 16 percent of the corn, respectively.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/significant-digits-for-wednesday-aug-14-2019/

BUT IT'S ALL A LIE!!!!

Here is the PHOTOGRAPHIC PROOF:



https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/c30585d2d450b6bc4747000531483ac9?width=1024

Clearly DeBlasio HAS KERNELS in his JAR.

Oh, sure, being statisticians, 538 will probably try to cover this up claiming it's all due to some sort of STATITISICAL ROUNDING thing. Right. Sure. Like WE are all too DUMB to handle decimal fractions!
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August 14, 2019

16 HarrisX Polls released for August... so far.

16 HarrisX Polls conducted at least in part in August have been released so far this month.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

Seriously. Talk about Poll fatigue.

Hmmmm. Is such frequent polling by an online poll being conducted to push a desired narrative?

August 14, 2019

0%

0 percent

At the Iowa State Fair, they administer a decidedly nonscientific poll whereby fairgoers drop a corn kernel into a jar corresponding to their preferred presidential candidate. In this decidedly nonscientific poll, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio registered 0 percent. For whatever it’s worth, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg led the way with 24, 16 and 16 percent of the corn, respectively.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/significant-digits-for-wednesday-aug-14-2019/

August 13, 2019

The Republicans are scum, that includes Mark Sanford

Former Governor and Congressman Mark Sanford is mulling a challenge to President Trump next year for the Republican nomination.

But he also says that in a potential matchup between former Vice President Joe Biden and Trump, he’d pick Trump.

https://www.msnbc.com/hardball/watch/possible-trump-challenger-mark-sanford-would-vote-for-trump-over-biden-65958981923

Don't believe anyone that thinks Trump is some sort of anomaly in the Republican party.

Republican support for Trump rises after racially charged tweets: Reuters/Ipsos poll

The national survey, conducted on Monday and Tuesday after Trump told the lawmakers they should “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came,” showed his net approval among members of his Republican Party rose by 5 percentage points to 72%, compared with a similar poll that ran last week.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-poll/republican-support-for-trump-rises-after-racially-charged-tweets-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1UB2UD