U.S. adds most private-sector jobs in almost 2 years, says ADP

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: MarketWatch

U.S. adds most private-sector jobs in almost 2 years, says ADP

Published: Jan 3, 2019 9:07 a.m. ET

271,000 private-sector jobs added, most since February 2017

By GREG ROBB
SENIOR ECONOMICS REPORTER

The numbers: Private-sector employment jumped in December, as employers added 271,000 jobs, Automatic Data Processing reported Thursday. That gain was well above forecasts from economists who expected a gain of 175,000. It is the most job gains since February 2017. (1)

What happened: Details of ADP’s report showed that small firms added 89,000 jobs in December, medium-size businesses added 129,000 to large companies added 54,000.

(1) https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2018/December/NER/NER-December-2018.aspx

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-adds-most-private-sector-jobs-in-almost-two-years-adp-2019-01-03

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https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2018/December/NER/NER-December-2018.aspx

ADP National Employment Report
December 2018
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 271,000 Jobs in December

Private-sector employment increased by 271,000 from November to December, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 271,000 Jobs in December

ROSELAND, N.J. – January 3, 2019 – Private sector employment increased by 271,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
....

Total Employment
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment



[CHART] Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

Historical Trend
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment



[CHART] Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

[karynnj]

1. Looking at the top chart, this is likely compensating for a low November

If you add the two and get the average, you would have a number that is very close to the average of the months since March. For Republicans who blamed the November number on fear of the Democrats controlling the House -- this high month explodes that narritive. It will take more data to show if there was any real change in trend.

[beachbum bob]

2. more jobs, tighter job market and yet no financial benefit to workers out of it

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. Other than having a job.... NT

[Farmer-Rick]

15. A job that takes up your time but doesn't even cover the cost to be alive.

I wonder....does the this agency report on wages?

[LanternWaste]

17. Your naivete that one job is sufficient is simply adorable. NT, Part II

[progree]

3. Reuters on how the ADP is particularly unreliable in December

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-133458609.html

The ADP report has a spotty record predicting the private-payrolls component of the government's employment report and last month's jump probably exaggerates the strength of the labor market.

"The December ADP data have been especially unreliable because of the challenge of adjusting for 'purging' effects," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York.

"December is typically when employers drop from their listings all individuals who have left their firms permanently," he said. "Such workers are dropped from the government data when they are no longer being paid, but some employers keep former employees on their lists for ADP until year-end tax documents have been filed."

In the article they also reported that November was revised downward from 179,000 to 157,000.

As for what is expected for tomorrow's BLS jobs report:

According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 177,000 jobs last month after rising 155,000 in November.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

6. About those jobless claims:

https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20190008.pdf

News Release
Connect with DOL at https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL 8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, January 3, 2019

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending December 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 216,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,250 from 218,000 to 219,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending December 22, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 22 was 1,740,000, an increase of 32,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 7,000 from 1,701,000 to 1,708,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,703,500, an increase of 26,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,750 from 1,675,750 to 1,677,500.
....

Weekly Claims Archives
Weekly Claims Data

U.S. Department of Labor news materials are accessible at http://www.dol.gov. The Departments Reasonable Accommodation Resource Center converts Departmental information and documents into alternative formats, which include Braille and large print. For alternative format requests, please contact the Department at [phone] (voice) or [phone] (federal relay).

U.S. Department of Labor
Employment and Training Administration
Washington, D.C. 20210
Release Number: USDL 19-8-NAT

Program Contacts:
Tony Sznoluch: [phone]
Kevin Stapleton: [phone]
Media Contact: [phone]

[olegramps]

5. What is the effect on temp employment for holidays? Will it drop in January?

[progree]

7. Both the ADP and tomorrow's BLS jobs report are seasonally adjusted numbers

so if the seasonal adjustments are done right and fit the usual seasonal pattern, then it shouldn't drop in January, at least from seasonal effects.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

8. DOL (and thus BLS) received funding, so the report will come out on time. NT

[olegramps]

16. Thanks for the information.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

9. Links to earlier reports:

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 155,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2018:

U.S. adds 179,000 private-sector jobs in November: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2018:

The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October, unemployment stays at 3.7 percent

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 227,000 Jobs in October 2018:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2018:

Unemployment rate declines to 3.7% in September; payroll employment increases by 134,000

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2018:

U.S. adds 230,000 private-sector jobs in September: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Added 201,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Firms in August Added Fewest Workers in 10 Months, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 157,000 in July; unemployment rate edges down to 3.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2018:

U.S. Added 213,000 Jobs in June; Unemployment Ticks Up to 4%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2018:

U.S. economy extends its hiring spree, with a better than expected 223,000 new jobs in May

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2018:

U.S. adds 204,000 private-sector jobs in April, ADP report shows

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2018:

Payroll employment edges up by 103,000 in March; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2018:

Manufacturing Industry Has Strongest Jobs Increase in Three Years

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 313,000 in February; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 235,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 200,000 in January; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2018:

U.S. Private Sector Added 234,000 Jobs in January

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 148,000 in December; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2017:

U.S. private sector adds 250,000 jobs in December, biggest rise since March

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 228,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

[Pobeka]

10. I wish they'd show us the avg pay of those new jobs.

I'll bet most are at or near minimum wage.

I'll bet a large percentage are second jobs too.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

11. ADP breaks down the information by sector.

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2018/December/NER/NER-December-2018.aspx

If I try to copy the page, the numbers will get jumbled.

[Pobeka]

12. Thx, but no data for for my two questions... n/t

[mahatmakanejeeves]

13. There's an Excel chart too, but it also does not get that granular.

Sorry. Maybe they release other data during the month that will show that.

Thanks for writing. Happy New Year.

[progree]

14. BLS report has hourly earnings -- but doesn't break it out as old vs. new jobs

This is from the BLS. Tomorrow's jobs report will update these numbers through December

Hourly Earnings Of Production And Nonsupervisory Employees
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000008
$22.95 in November (was $22.23 a year ago, and $21.72 two years ago)

Inflation adjusted version of the above, using the CPI-U
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
$9.29 in 1982-1984 dollars. (was $9.20 a year ago, and $9.20 two years ago too)

On total and part-time workers, in November:

# Total Employed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
156,795,000


# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194
4,802,000

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000
27,039,000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000
129,755,000

So they say.

DOW down 549 points at 11:03 AM ET