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Fri Jun 1, 2018, 08:42 AM

U.S. economy extends its hiring spree, with a better than expected 223,000 new jobs in May

Last edited Fri Jun 1, 2018, 10:11 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: Washington Post

U.S. companies continued their hiring spree during May, with a higher than expected 223,000 job gains in the Labor Department's monthly jobs report Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent.

In a highly unusual move, President Trump tweeted Friday morning that he is "looking forward to seeing the employment numbers." Trump's tweet made many on Wall Street wonder if the number would be far higher than predicted.

The U.S. unemployment rate has not been this low since 2000. Many economists predict it will fall even further this year, potentially dropping to 3.5 percent, which would be the lowest rate since 1969. Wage growth ticked up slightly to 2.7 percent over the past year.

Presidents have typically received an advance look at the jobs report on Thursday evening, but they refrain from commenting on it until after it releases because they don't want to be seen as influencing the markets. A long-standing federal rule forbids government employees from commenting on the jobs numbers until an hour after the release, but Trump has ignored that rule before.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/01/u-s-economy-continues-its-hiring-spree-and-is-projected-to-add-200000-jobs-in-may/?utm_term=.cf1db2bb5dec



Waiting for my buddy's info to add in a post here!

Edit to add info from post #14 -

Payroll employment increases by 223,000 in May; unemployment rate edges down to 3.8%

Economic News Release USDL-18-0916

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, June 1, 2018

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MAY 2018


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in May, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several industries, including retail trade, health care, and construction.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent in May, and the number of unemployed persons declined to 6.1 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate was down by 0.5 percentage point, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 772,000. (See table A-1.)
....

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in May, compared with an average monthly gain of 191,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in several industries, including retail trade, health care, and construction. (See table B-1.)
....

Manufacturing employment continued to expand over the month (+18,000). Durable goods accounted for most of the change, including an increase of 6,000 jobs in machinery. Manufacturing employment has risen by 259,000 over the year, with about three-fourths of the growth in durable goods industries.

Mining added 6,000 jobs in May. Since a recent low point in October 2016, employment in mining has grown by 91,000, with support activities for mining accounting for nearly all of the increase.
....

In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $26.92. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 71 cents, or 2.7 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 7 cents to $22.59 in May. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised up from +135,000 to +155,000, and the change for April was revised down from +164,000 to +159,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 15,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 179,000 over the last 3 months.

_____________
The Employment Situation for June is scheduled to be released on Friday, July 6, 2018, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).


May ADP -

May 2018: ADP Employment Reports

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 178,000 Jobs in May

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Reply U.S. economy extends its hiring spree, with a better than expected 223,000 new jobs in May (Original post)
BumRushDaShow Jun 1 OP
OliverQ Jun 1 #1
BumRushDaShow Jun 1 #2
pangaia Jun 1 #12
Calista241 Jun 13 #50
louis c Jun 1 #4
OliverQ Jun 1 #7
Hoyt Jun 1 #26
Cha Jun 13 #59
Drunken Irishman Jun 1 #23
progree Jun 1 #24
Drunken Irishman Jun 1 #25
louis c Jun 1 #31
Drunken Irishman Jun 2 #33
louis c Jun 3 #34
Drunken Irishman Jun 3 #35
louis c Jun 3 #36
Drunken Irishman Jun 4 #37
louis c Jun 4 #39
Drunken Irishman Jun 4 #41
louis c Jun 4 #44
Drunken Irishman Jun 5 #47
louis c Jun 5 #48
Drunken Irishman Jun 13 #49
louis c Jun 13 #54
Drunken Irishman Jun 13 #55
louis c Jun 13 #57
Drunken Irishman Jun 14 #62
louis c Jun 14 #63
progree Jun 14 #66
louis c Jun 14 #67
progree Jun 14 #68
louis c Jun 14 #70
Drunken Irishman Jun 15 #71
Cha Jun 13 #60
xor Jun 13 #58
workinclasszero Jun 14 #64
Achilleaze Jun 1 #3
pangaia Jun 1 #5
Yavin4 Jun 1 #6
Rebl2 Jun 1 #8
Delphinus Jun 1 #10
progree Jun 1 #11
TexasBushwhacker Jun 1 #9
Bernardo de La Paz Jun 1 #13
BumRushDaShow Jun 1 #17
mahatmakanejeeves Jun 1 #14
BumRushDaShow Jun 1 #16
progree Jun 1 #18
mahatmakanejeeves Jun 1 #19
progree Jun 1 #15
BumRushDaShow Jun 1 #20
TomCADem Jun 1 #21
pstokely Jun 4 #38
TomCADem Jun 4 #40
pstokely Jun 4 #42
TomCADem Jun 4 #45
pstokely Jun 5 #46
Jimbo S Jun 14 #65
workinclasszero Jun 1 #22
Gamecock Lefty Jun 1 #27
Bengus81 Jun 1 #29
Bengus81 Jun 1 #28
former9thward Jun 4 #43
YOHABLO Jun 1 #30
KY_EnviroGuy Jun 1 #32
secondwind Jun 13 #51
BumRushDaShow Jun 13 #52
progree Jun 13 #53
Maxheader Jun 13 #56
Cha Jun 13 #61
TheFrenchRazor Jun 14 #69

Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 08:43 AM

1. Things like this are going to continue to keep his approval high

which will prevent Congress from ever turning on him. I actually view this as bad news.

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Response to OliverQ (Reply #1)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 08:59 AM

2. Getting hit in the pocketbook with any trade war will outweigh this. nt

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #2)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:39 AM

12. I would bet those types would believe what they read over what they are told

rather than what they experience.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #2)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 06:41 AM

50. The trade war is about blue collar workers in the Midwest.

He’s trying to permanently flip the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and maybe Minnesota.

If he can raise his votes among those workers, and limit the effect of the trade war on the overall economy, he wins.

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Response to OliverQ (Reply #1)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:06 AM

4. The GDP was revised downward to 2.2%

And Obama took office with a minus 9% GDP and an 11% unemployment number.

Trump took over on the one yard line and wants to get credit for the touchdown after Obama took the team 99 yards to the one.

Trump doubled the deficit to a $trillion to goose an already strong economy.

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Response to louis c (Reply #4)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:12 AM

7. I agree. Sadly people don't pay attention to that.

They see the stupid CNN or Fox breaking news headline about good jobs numbers and just assume trump was responsible. It's so frustrating how many people lack critical thinking and the media isn't helping.


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Response to OliverQ (Reply #7)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 12:27 PM

26. That's the problem. People will just say things have gotten better under trump. Trying to explain

the course/trend was set by Obama will only appeal to those who are Democrats, or lean that way.

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Response to louis c (Reply #4)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 05:14 PM

59. Barbra Streisand agrees..

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Response to OliverQ (Reply #1)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 11:39 AM

23. Yup. This is why I think Trump will be reelected...

The economy is not going to collapse and if it continues to expand, people will overlook everything he's done and support him because, "none of it matters.".

Trump is a near lock for reelection if the economy continues to grow at this rate.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #23)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 12:00 PM

24. With a veteran deal-maker at the helm, things might be different this time

(sarcasm)

but it seems like every time since the 1960's that the unemployment rate dips below 4%, it's only a matter of months before the economy blows up. I certainly don't wish that to happen given the harm it will cause so many people.

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Response to progree (Reply #24)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 12:24 PM

25. We're definitely due for a recession - or at least a massive correction.

I believe this is actually the longest period of growth we've experienced without a recession in a long, long, long time.

It'll happen regardless. It's pretty inevitable to be honest. The question is whether it'll happen this year, 2019, 2020 or Trump lucks out and it happens at the start of his second term.

I think Trump is toxic but nothing makes people forget quite like economic expansion. To be honest, had the economy slowed significantly under Clinton in the late 90s like it eventually did in Bush's first two years, I'm not sure he survives the whole Lewinsky affair - and he certainly wouldn't have survived it if the bottom fell out like it did at the end of the Bush presidency. But the growth was significant enough that people turned a blind eye to it.

Trump won't sail to reelection but if the economy is still as good as it is today, he'll be very hard to beat because Americans will by in large ignore it if their 401K is performing well enough. The fact is, I've heard it. I've heard it from people who don't like Trump at all - who find him a disgusting human being. These are people who will openly tell you they don't trust him, like him or respect him.

But their qualifier is always, "still...if my 401K continues to perform this well, he can do whatever he wants!"

That'll be what Democrats will be facing in 2020 if the economy remains strong.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #23)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 07:14 PM

31. You're 100% wrong

Trump's popularity is at 40% in Gallup's latest poll.

Every pundit agrees that with an economy like this a normal President would be at least 57% and maybe above 60%.

The deficit is at $1Trilluion a year, gas prices are $3.00 a gallon and rising, wages are stagnant, the GDP is nowhere near the 3 1/2% promised, and the new jobs being created are at the bottom of the economic ladder.

and that's not counting the indictments that are coming.

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Response to louis c (Reply #31)

Sat Jun 2, 2018, 12:24 AM

33. Trump's approval is higher now than it was when he won in 2016.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #33)

Sun Jun 3, 2018, 07:45 AM

34. If 40% is greater than 46%, I'd say you're correct

Where are you getting your facts? From Fox News?

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Response to louis c (Reply #34)

Sun Jun 3, 2018, 04:40 PM

35. I said approval - not the percentage of votes he received.

They're not one in the same. Obama's disapproval rating on the eve of the election according to Gallup in 2012 was 43% - and yet 47% of Americans voted against him (a difference of four points). Moreover, that's just one poll. According to the average of polls (RCP), Trump's approval rating is 44.4%. That includes Gallup, among other polls.

In November, 2016, his approval rating was 39.5% favorable, 57% unfavorable on the eve of the election.

His current disapproval rating 53% - four points better than it was when he won in 2016. Despite only 39.5% of people finding him favorable in 2016, he still managed to win 46% of the vote. That's the scary thing. If he sees a similar jump between favorable/approval ratings and actual votes, (39.5 to 46 - a 6.5 increase) as his current number, he'd go from 44.4% to 50.9% - high enough to win reelection.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #35)

Sun Jun 3, 2018, 05:59 PM

36. I just have a great deal of trouble...

...trying to parrot right wing talking points.

You can split hairs all you want, but the ferocity of Trump's disapproval numbers compared to his approval numbers (very unfavorable to very favorable) are about a negative 20 points in every poll.

Those are the numbers that really count and translate to a "shellacking" in a mid-term or general election.

But, again, if I wanted a Trump spin on any numbers, I'd watch Fox News, not wait for a Duer to tell me.

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Response to louis c (Reply #36)

Mon Jun 4, 2018, 02:25 AM

37. It's not right-wing talking points. It's reality.

Trump won despite having historically awful numbers in 2016. His numbers are literally better today than they were in Nov. 2016 when he won. You can continue to bury your head in the sand but don't be surprised if you wake up in Nov. 2020 to find out Trump has won reelection. That's not parroting anything - it's pointing out a fact. If historically low approval numbers were a deterrent to him winning, he wouldn't be in office right now.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #37)

Mon Jun 4, 2018, 08:46 AM

39. You will be proven correct in your RW analysis...

...if in 2020 the Russians get to hack the Dems emails again, send out ads targeting the losing Dem candidates as being "cheated", some part-time, stupid Dems vote for Jill Stein and the FBI sends out a memo 11 days before the election saying (incorrectly) that our candidate is under investigation, and, as a result, the votes fall in such a way that a 2% popular vote victory, nationwide, turns into narrow state victories for Trump to give him the electoral college.

But, to say that Trump is more "popular" today than he was on election day 2016 is Fox News Talking points that have been disproven in every special and scheduled election in 2017 and 2018. The people who hated Trump in 2016 will not stay home or throw their votes away again in 2018 or 2020.

You are just 100% wrong and you are absolutely espousing Fox News Right Wing Talking Points.

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Response to louis c (Reply #39)

Mon Jun 4, 2018, 12:14 PM

41. lol

I've backed everything I said up with facts. You haven't. You sound exactly like the RWers you're trying to tie me to. Trump's overall popularity is bad - but it's still higher than it was right before the election. That is 100% fact. You can't deny it unless you deny reality. Which I'm starting to think you do - which I understand. Every day since November, 2016, I've contemplated denying reality but I have the get out in the real world and actually do things. Maybe you're afforded the luxury of holing yourself up in the world where your reality is only DU and everything else you create. I am not that lucky. I am out in the real world every single day talking to non-liberals and non-Democrats and I see the realness of the current situation.

People like you spent all of 2016 telling us there was no way Trump could win. He won.
Now you're telling us there's no way he can win in 2020.

Good luck with that. Frankly, I'm not going to pretend it's not possible.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #41)

Mon Jun 4, 2018, 02:27 PM

44. You think Trump is more popular today than on election day

And you think you help our cause?

The only other place I hear that is right wing talking points.

And that's a fact.

LOL

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Response to louis c (Reply #44)

Tue Jun 5, 2018, 01:57 PM

47. Stating fact is not a right-wing talking point lol

C'mon, are you trolling me right now? You can't be serious, right? I provided evidence Trump has more support today than he did on election day. It's possible he wins in 2020. If you want to deny, deny, deny then that's on you. But as someone who was utterly devastated by the surprise results of 2016, I am not going to be fooled again. Unlike you, I am not burying my head in the sand convinced Trump can't win in 2020. I am going to enter this upcoming election learning from history and doing everything in my power to make sure he doesn't win - but also knowing it's a real possibility because, unlike you, I learn from the errors of my way.

So, keep living in denial. Trust me. I spent most the Bush years there. But I've been jaded enough to realize half America doesn't think like I do and because of that, there's always a really good chance something like 2016 happens all over again.

But whatever. I'm sure you were convinced Bush couldn't win in 2000 and then there was no chance he'd win in 2004 and absolutely zero chance Trump would win in 2016.

Except, you know...

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #47)

Tue Jun 5, 2018, 02:40 PM

48. Trump is less popular today than on election day. The people who hate him today...

...hate him with a more burning passion than they did on election day, and that includes me.

54% of Americans voted for someone other than Trump in 2016. Many threw their votes away because of over confidence.

They are coming out of the wood work in the specials and nobody who hates this President will ever stay home or throw their vote away in 2018 or 2020.

200,000 American citizens have left Puerto Rico to resettle in the states, mostly in the Electoral College Vote rich state of Florida, every one of them anxious to cast a vote against the piece of shit who condemned their island to hell after Maria.

Millions of young people who were ineligible because of their age in 2016 (as young as 14 years) will be voting in 2020 and are inclined to hate Trump, and millions of old fucking morons (a strong Trump demographic) who supported Trump in 2016 will be passing away before the 2020 general election.

Trump is not growing his base and it is shrinking. How many people have you run into who say "You know something, I didn't vote for Trump in 2016, but he's won me over. He's doing a hell of a job."?

In 2010, Barack Obama had a positive job approval and the Dems and Reps were within a point or 2 of each other in the generic ballot. But the Republicans held a 17 point advantage in enthusiasm and won back 63 seats.. The latest NBC poll has that same enthusiasm advantage going Democratic.

What happened in 2016 will never happen again. Everyone associated with Trump will be disgraced in one way or another, just as people associated with Nixon were 45 years ago.

I've seen this movie before and I know you're squeamish, but you will be shocked, in a positive way, at how this all turns out.

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Response to louis c (Reply #48)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 12:48 AM

49. Your first point is patently false.

Trump's favorability rating today is 41%.

On election day, it was 57%.

Trump is absolutely more popular today than he was when he won in 2016. Despite everything that has happened - more Americans find Trump favorable today than they did in 2016. If he could win with a 57% unfavorable rating - he can certainly win with a 53% one.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #49)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 09:08 AM

54. Ya, it shows in the specials

The whole point of my OP is enthusiasm trumps the passive numbers.

Trump will not win, unless we can depress our own turnout with the negative stuff you post.

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Response to louis c (Reply #54)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 11:29 AM

55. Trump will win if we take the approach that there's no chance of him winning.

Frankly, I'm not stupid enough to think Democrats are unbeatable. Especially with a growing economy. Trump isn't seeing the approval of a president with this low of an unemployment rate but it's been enough to lighten a great deal of the worst about his presidency to many, many Americans and why, even today, his numbers are stronger than they should be all things considered.

Bottom line: Trump very well could win in 2020. Democrats would be absolute fools to pretend otherwise.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #55)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 01:00 PM

57. Encouraging people to vote takes optimism

not pessimism.

After 2016, there is no chance that anybody on our side will ever be over confident. So, showing the realistic polls which demonstrate overwhelming enthusiasm on our side is a positive motivator.

Saying that Trump is more popular now than when he won gives the impression that we have no chance. That attitude does the work for the other side.

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Response to louis c (Reply #57)

Thu Jun 14, 2018, 01:49 PM

62. Pushing the narrative Trump can't win is exactly how he won...

Democrats, and a lot of liberals, took that to heart and sat the election out or voted third party because they felt safe. It's why states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which a week before the election looked likely to go Clinton, all trended toward Trump and by the time the Clinton campaign realized this, it was too late.

There's being optimistic and then there's being naive.

It's naive to suggest Trump can't win. I've outlined why he's more popular today than he was in Nov. 2016 and Trump has something going for him that he didn't have back then - incumbency. Add a surging economy and it'll be a challenge for Democrats to beat him. Frankly, I'm not optimistic because I see how the real world is working and no president, under this cloud of investigation, should even be remotely as high in approval as Trump is. His approval rating today is 43%. At this point four years ago. Obama only had a three-point advantage on Trump in approval/disapproval.

Now I get a lot of Trump's approval is inflated by the economy. But that's my point. It's strong enough to hold him at Obama-levels a year and a half into his presidency. It doesn't bode well for November for him but it can bode well for 2020 IF the economy continues to expand.

The problem Democrats are running into, which is exactly the same problem they ran into on the campaign trail in 2016, is that there's just so much breaking all the time in regards to Trump that the American people become so overwhelmed by it that they start tuning that shit out. It's just a constant stream of crazy and it overwhelms to the point that the American people don't have time to process the latest episode before they're being inundated with another tweet or scandal.

Trump should have better approval than he has right now all things considered. However, the economy has given him just enough of a lifeline that I don't feel comfortable predicting a Democrat win. If he's at 43% approval in 2020, I think he'll be very difficult to beat.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #62)

Thu Jun 14, 2018, 07:11 PM

63. You sure you're on the correct political web site

When Rasmussen puts Trump at 49% approval, it's highlighted in Red on Drudge and runs on the fox banner all day long.

Good poll numbers are helpful to Trump.

I'm sure they'll be thrilled to read your posts.

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Response to louis c (Reply #63)

Thu Jun 14, 2018, 08:35 PM

66. Yes. I'm not a big fan of the ostrich brigrade.

You sure you're on the correct political web site


Yes, I think Drunken Irishman and I are on the correct website. I dunno about you.

I'm sick and I'm tired of "progressives" telling us we must stick our heads in the sand. I'm sick and I'm tired of people telling us that posting any polls that indicate we're not at least 5% ahead is an act of disloyalty. It's the ostrich brigade that is disloyal, or at best innocently stupid and harmful. And yes, I believe, as D.I. believes, that thinking we had it in the bag in 2016 hurt our turnout. And that the insistence of many in DU that we post only good news before the election hurt us.

I'm an engineer, and I firmly believe in examining all the evidence, and working with the facts and living with the truth. Wishful thinking in contradiciton to the evidence leads to disaster.





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Response to progree (Reply #66)

Thu Jun 14, 2018, 08:59 PM

67. You seem to miss my original point in your effort to discourage Democratic voters

I am not concerned with the "soft" numbers in the approval and disapproval of Adolf Trump. Those will fluctuate.

He won in 2016 because of the huge enthusiasm gap in his favor between his supporters and ours (I'm assuming you're on our side, so I use the word ours).

The enthusiasm now has swung wildly to our side. In most polls the very favorable is 20 points behind the very unfavorable. That is why we are winning election after election since the November 2016 election of Donald Trump. Virginia, New Jersey, Alabama, Pennsylvania. In district after district. In state after state. Small races and large, the Democrats are running 10, 15 and 20 points ahead of Trump supported candidates, as compared to the Trump margin in 2016.

You keep reciting the "soft" numbers on Trump's approval rating (just like Hannity). The key number for an election is the enthusiasm gap. The hard numbers inside the poll. Compare the very favorable (love Trump) to the very unfavorable (hate Trump) and then you can see what I'm talking about and why the real elections prove my point.

To further prove my point, here is the most recent YouGov poll only 2 days old. Although there is only a gap of 6 points overall, the intensity number is 16 points. Elections are won and lost on that number.

Strongly approve 22%
Somewhat approve 20%
Somewhat disapprove 10%
Strongly disapprove 38%

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Response to louis c (Reply #67)

Thu Jun 14, 2018, 09:30 PM

68. No, I'm not discouraging Dem voters but encouraging them. Not sure about you, however

You seem to miss my original point in your effort to discourage Democratic voters


Quite the opposite... we have to work very hard to turn this around. You, on the other hand, seem to be saying it's all flowing our way, so relax. To me, it's you who are discouraging Democrats from making the Herculian extra efforts required to take back at least one of the houses of Congress in 2018.

You keep reciting the "soft" numbers on Trump's approval rating (just like Hannity).


I didn't. But I supported D.I. who probably did recite all kinds of numbers... Anyway, I'm hoping, like you, for the hard numbers to mean a big turnout in favor of Democratic candidates.

By the way, it's Hannity who wants Democrats to think things are just fine, so relax.

The key number for an election is the enthusiasm gap. The hard numbers inside the poll. Compare the very favorable (love Trump) to the very unfavorable (hate Trump) and then you can see what I'm talking about and why the real elections prove my point.


I'll have to look at that some more and compare it to ... But I certainly think that motivation is everything. On the other hand, with the House gerrymandered the way it is, I read that it will take a blue wave tsumani well exceeding that of 2006 to give us a majority. And the Senate, where we are at about a 3:1 disadvantage as far as seats we are defending. So it's going to be very tough. Telling us that we shouldn't be concerned is not helpful in the least.




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Response to progree (Reply #68)

Thu Jun 14, 2018, 11:06 PM

70. All I do is encourage voters

I am an AFL-CIO COPE committee member. I organize canvassing, speak to groups and at union meetings. I am a Dem. Committee Chairman, belong to Union PACS. I am a paid full time union employee whose primary job is to encourage voters to vote for Democrats.

I deal with many who attempt to discourage voters. Gerrymandering, by the way, will work to our advantage this year, because the suburban, white college educated Republicans the other side took for granted in 2010 are anti-Trump and motivated. You have seen that play out in many special elections.

There will be a Blue Wave and we need to keep our side united and interested.

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Response to louis c (Reply #63)

Fri Jun 15, 2018, 04:17 PM

71. I've been on DU since I saw this website on a banner during Bush's first inauguration.

I signed up for my first account in January, 2001. Don't tell me I am on the wrong website.

I've been on this website long enough, seen enough, to know exactly how a good section of the liberal electorate operates.

If you knew me, instead of pretending to know my motives, you'd see I have been consistent throughout - going all the way back to the 2004 presidential election.

I still trust the polls. I trusted the polls in '04 when they showed Kerry had an uphill battle to win the WH, and many DUers were proclaiming that Bush was going down because, gosh, Bush's approval was, on the whole, below 50% and incumbents just didn't win with sub-50% polling figures. I remember how shook everyone was on election night when the polls proved right and Bush won Florida and Ohio - as the polls said he would. I trusted the polls in '08 when those same posters were getting cold feet about the election of Obama and wondering if McCain would surge in the last days of the race. I trusted the polls in '12, even broke down the polls, in a series of posts, saying Obama was out-performing where he needed to be to win. I even trusted the polls in '16, and there was something about those polls that always kept me up at night dreading the possibility that Clinton could lose. I made a post after the Comey Letter dropped saying this would be a significant point in the campaign and that Clinton very well could be in trouble. I was ridiculed for it - but I knew the margins were so small that anything could tip the campaign away from her.

Guess what? It did. The polls were right in 2016 - or at least, as right as they were in 2012. The difference? The momentum went the other way. In 2012, Obama broke open a very close race late and ended winning by a larger than expected margin in both the popular vote and electoral college. Four years later, the race shifted Trump VERY late and it was enough to barely flip Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin - three states that Trump won by only a marginal amount.

But the constant from me, since the 2004 election, is that I never, ever focus on just one poll. Ever. All my data is pulled from an average of polls, which is far more accurate than one poll. This is why, in 2004, I didn't feel comfortable with Kerry winning and said as much. Sure, the Pollyannas on the left would cherry pick polls to fit their narrative - Kerry is winning in Ohio according to Zogby! Forget that out of eight polls, Kerry only led in one, tied in the other and was behind in six others. It had to be true! It wasn't.

Likewise, in 2008 and 2012, I pointed to the average of polls when liberals were freaking out about Obama's chances. The average has him UP in Ohio, guys. He's okay.

In 2016, I'll admit the polls were a bit off at the state level ... but off only because states were under-polled and didn't account for the late shift toward Trump.

The last thing the left should become is poll truthers. There was a Romney supporter who ran a website that supposedly de-liberal'd the sample to PROVE Romney was winning in a landslide. Dick Morris, who was a regular on FOX News prior to the 2012 election (and has been since relegated to twitter troll) did the exact same thing.

Polls are still generally accurate. No, they can't account for late shifts but they can tell you the mood of the country. In 2012, it was clear Obama had a lot playing in his favor. If the economy continues to grow at the rate it has been the last three years, Trump absolutely will have a huge advantage in that regard. Will it be enough to win him the White House? I'd like to think not but I'm not convinced he'll lose.

When I say he absolutely is more popular today than in Nov., 2016, it's a fact. It's not just quoting the Rasmussen poll, either. And it's not just liberals depressing things - it's a reality.

Trump is not popular. I'll readily concede that. Overall, his approval is lower today than it was when he took office - but that's to be expected. Every modern president exceeds their overall vote total percentage at the start of their term (Obama started his presidency with a 70% approval despite only garnering 53% of the vote). It has declined from that point - but again, it's common for that to occur - as nearly every president, outside Bush (due to 9/11) see a decline in their overall high on inauguration day.

Facts:

Trump is still an unpopular president. His approval average is 42% - that's six-points worse than Obama at this point in Obama's first term (however, Obama's approval by the end of June, 2010, would be 46% - only four-percent better than Trump's currently).

For having such a booming economy, Trump should have a much higher approval than he does. In 2010, Obama was fighting back near-10% unemployment, which played a huge role in why his approval rating was so low. He also was in the midst of a healthcare battle that strained that approval. So, I'll readily concede not everything is the same here.

Trump is still more popular today than he was in Nov. 2016. It doesn't matter how many times you dismiss this - it's true. Trump is more popular, and more accepted, today than he was when he won. Being elected legitimatized him a bit, rightfully or not, and his approval has shown it.

Trump's overall approval is on the rise. It's not a significant rise - but it is a rise. Despite all the threats of Mueller, and everything that has bogged down his WH this year, including an inhumane immigration policy, Trump's approval rating right now (42%) is higher than it was on Jan. 1st (38%) - these numbers are according to 538.

In fact, Trump's disapproval is the lowest it's been since March 21st, 2017. That's another problem - while Trump's approval hasn't significantly improved over the course of a year, his disapproval has actually gone down. On Jan. 1st, 2018, his disapproval was at 56.2% - it's now at 51.8%. Five points doesn't seem like a lot but an additional five points off that and Trump's disapproval would be at 46% and his approval, even if it remains at its current level, would only be four points off that. Slowly - and I mean slowly - Trump is getting closer and closer to level in his approval/disapproval. This is mostly a result of the economy. It's inflated his numbers and as the economy continues to grow, people continue to look the other way at all his indiscretions.

And this isn't just one poll - it's taken straight from 538.

More concerning is Trump's disapproval in some states he won in 2016.

In Pennsylvania and Ohio - his approval is 46%, with only 50% disapproval.
In Wisconsin, he's a bit more under the water, with an approval of just 42%.
In Michigan, it's 43%.

Those aren't reelection-level numbers, to be sure, but they're good enough to put him in striking distance. And that's the concern.

Because remember, approval/disapproval doesn't equate votes.

Trump isn't a slam dunk pick for reelection. He might not even be the favorite when it's all said and done. But depending on who the Democrats nominate, he absolutely has a legitimate shot at winning reelection ... unless there's something more to the Mueller probe that really does bring him down. But right now, despite everything that has happened, Trump is still popular enough in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan to be considered a legitimate threat in 2020.

IF the economy continues to expand even more, the Democrats are going to face an uphill battle.

With that said, if the economy dips - especially if it goes into a recession - Trump is cooked. His only hope for being reelected is the type of economy he has right now ... but I guess the question we have to ask ourselves is if it'll slow down between now and 2020? I'm not so sure.

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Response to louis c (Reply #31)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 05:16 PM

60. I hope you're right!

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Response to OliverQ (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 01:01 PM

58. You shouldn't view it as bad news.

This is good news for those who are finding employment. I also hope that Trump doesn't negate this with silly trade wars.

Anyway, I think hoping for bad news for other Americans just 'cause Trump is president doesn't seem like a good place to be in. I hated that shit when republicans/conservatives did that with Obama. I hope anyone who considers themselves a democrat or liberal doesn't go down that same low path. Reminds me a lot of "burning the village down to save it" sort of mindset.

Seems like a better path would be to see if this economy growth is a continuation of Obama's growing of the economy, and that it's continuing to grow in spite of Trump. I am not economically savvy to feel confident in making and defending those claims, but there are plenty of folks who actively track trends and understand the economy in depth.

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Response to OliverQ (Reply #1)

Thu Jun 14, 2018, 07:32 PM

64. Wait till Dotards trade wars sends inflation

spiraling out of control.

5 dollar a gallon gas, no more cheap stuff at Walmart, no health care ins, no pre existing conditions coverage, cost of food exploding, farmers driven out of business when China, Canada, Mexico and the EU retaliate against Trump tariffs, GOP attacks against Social Security, medicare and food assistance, the GOP takedown of CHIP, try all that on 12 bucks an hour, or less.

This is the height of President Obama's economic plans. Shitler had squat to do with it.

His damn greasy fingerprints will be all over the downfall of it.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:06 AM

3. Thanks Obama!

I see the KGOP repubes are still coasting on all your brilliant work.

Too bad the repubes have pissed on all the good you established, and started a freaking Trade War, and jacked up gas prices. Stupid. Sad. republican.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:07 AM

5. All is never as it seems.

And that is not just some 'blind democrat refusing to see the truth.'


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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:11 AM

6. This is the results of low interest rates for 10+ years

It was 0 for most of those years, and it's still is a stimulative rate.

--On Edit--

To give you a comparison, when the UE rate was under 4%, Greenspan started hiking rates like crazy to 6%. Today, UE is 3.8, but interest rates are 1.75!!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:18 AM

8. Bet it will

Be revised down, but we’ll never hear about it. Also remember, it’s possible the numbers are up because of summer time temporary hiring. April numbers were below what they expected.

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Response to Rebl2 (Reply #8)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:22 AM

10. What jobs

are created that would make it go up?

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Response to Rebl2 (Reply #8)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:30 AM

11. The numbers are seasonally adjusted

Also, the revisions to the payroll job numbers are always given in the BLS report in their summary, but whether the media mentions that in its reporting is a sometimes thing.

From page 3 of http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised up from +135,000 to +155,000,
and the change for April was revised down from +164,000 to +159,000. With these revisions,
employment gains in March and April combined were 15,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly
revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last
published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have
averaged 179,000 over the last 3 months.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:21 AM

9. I don't see wages going up though

I'm looking for a fulltime bookkeeping job. I just saw a job listing where they wanted to pay $30K. My last full time position was $50K in 2016. I even made $42K in 2003. I realize this is just anecdotal, but still.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:42 AM

13. Trump breaks protocol, sends markets a clear signal on jobs report before numbers are released

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Response to Bernardo de La Paz (Reply #13)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 10:08 AM

17. Yup. Every day becomes one outrage after another.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:43 AM

14. Thanks. I just got to work about ten minutes ago.

I thought the numbers weren't coming out until next Friday.

I guess I should add a link to BLS.

Payroll employment increases by 223,000 in May; unemployment rate edges down to 3.8%

Economic News Release USDL-18-0916

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, June 1, 2018

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MAY 2018


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in May, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several industries, including retail trade, health care, and construction.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent in May, and the number of unemployed persons declined to 6.1 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate was down by 0.5 percentage point, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 772,000. (See table A-1.)
....

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in May, compared with an average monthly gain of 191,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in several industries, including retail trade, health care, and construction. (See table B-1.)
....

Manufacturing employment continued to expand over the month (+18,000). Durable goods accounted for most of the change, including an increase of 6,000 jobs in machinery. Manufacturing employment has risen by 259,000 over the year, with about three-fourths of the growth in durable goods industries.

Mining added 6,000 jobs in May. Since a recent low point in October 2016, employment in mining has grown by 91,000, with support activities for mining accounting for nearly all of the increase.
....

In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $26.92. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 71 cents, or 2.7 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 7 cents to $22.59 in May. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised up from +135,000 to +155,000, and the change for April was revised down from +164,000 to +159,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 15,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 179,000 over the last 3 months.

_____________
The Employment Situation for June is scheduled to be released on Friday, July 6, 2018, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

Did ADP release its figures on Wednesday? Well, I missed that too. I'm off to a really great start this week.

May 2018: ADP Employment Reports

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 178,000 Jobs in May

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #14)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 10:06 AM

16. There you guys are!



TGIF!

And I thought the same about the decision to release today since the 1st did fall on a Friday AND this week was a short week due to the holiday this past Monday.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #14)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 10:10 AM

18. I found this schedule of BLS's Employment Situation releases (aka "the jobs reports")

When job reports come out: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm

2018: 3/9, 4/6, 5/4, 6/1, 7/6, 8/3, 9/7, 10/5, 11/2, 12/7

Welcome back! I was about to file a missing persons report

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Response to progree (Reply #18)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 10:13 AM

19. I should have read this:

Payroll employment increases by 164,000 in April; unemployment rate edges down to 3.9%

{snippety-dippety}

_____________
The Employment Situation for May is scheduled to be released on Friday, June 1, 2018, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 09:54 AM

15. Unemployment rate is actually 42%...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210153676

(according to Dottie during the campaign, but you don't hear that anymore from Dottie) (Dottie the Dotard)

And no, the unemployment rate isn't 42%, nor was it during the campaign -- I explain that in my post in that thread.

But remember when Dottie talked about 94 million jobless Americans (citing the NILF -- Not In The Labor Force numbers)?

Well it's now 95,915,000, which is up 170,000 in the past month and up 877,000 in the past 12 months, and up 1,551,000 since the inaugural month of January 2017 (when it was 94,364,000). Tell that to some fucking greed-banger rightie. (1.5 million more "jobless Americans" since Trump became president!!!!!!! Makes Hoover look Great Again!)

Not in Labor Force, Age 16+ https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

Not in Labor Force, say they want a job, Age 16+ https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

(The latter, at 5,183,000, is up 68,000 over the past month, but down 536,000 from the inaugural month of January 2017)

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Response to progree (Reply #15)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 10:17 AM

20. Thanks for the link to that thread.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 10:59 AM

21. Bulls$&t With Ford and Nissan Announcing...

....major reductions due to reduced auto sales. Car sales do not go down during an economic expansion.

Trump’s unemployment numbers are like his EPA pronouncements on climate change.

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Response to TomCADem (Reply #21)

Mon Jun 4, 2018, 03:33 AM

38. people are keeping cars longer

cars last longer than they used to, people replace their phones more often than their cars

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Response to pstokely (Reply #38)

Mon Jun 4, 2018, 11:55 AM

40. Exactly. During recessions, people don't replace stuff

That is my point. Trump’s unemployment numbers are like his Puerto Rico casualty counts or his Stormy Daniels excuses.

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Response to TomCADem (Reply #40)

Mon Jun 4, 2018, 12:36 PM

42. some people don't even replace things during prosperous times, cars last longer than they used to

if your 5 year Honda works, why replace it? and Ford doesn't make anything people want besides gas hog trucks and SUVs

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Response to pstokely (Reply #42)

Mon Jun 4, 2018, 03:52 PM

45. Are You Saying That Card In Past 10 Years Last Longer?

Any evidence of that? If anything, I would think that with newer tech cars might break down more often or people would want to simply upgrade. Any evidence that on average cars last longer in just the past 10 years because they are built better?

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Response to TomCADem (Reply #45)

Tue Jun 5, 2018, 01:19 AM

46. it might be because people are avoiding "domestic" Ford, GM, and Chrysler cars

Last edited Wed Jun 6, 2018, 12:21 AM - Edit history (2)

Toyota and Honda have a bigger share the market than they did 30 years ago, but even "domestic" cars of today last longer, also millennialsview cars as just basic transportation appliances like a refrigerator or microwave if they even own a car

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Response to TomCADem (Reply #45)

Thu Jun 14, 2018, 07:43 PM

65. As a quality engineer in the automotive industry

going on 25 years, OEM's quality expectations have definitely risen the last few years.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 11:07 AM

22. Walmart is hiring

Yay?

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 12:38 PM

27. What I don't understand . . .

When the unemployment rate was steadily going down under Obama, conservatives were screaming, “yea, but what are the REAL unemployment numbers, what are the numbers of those who have stopped looking?” Remember that?

They have been strangely silent since Bone Spurs took office.

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Response to Gamecock Lefty (Reply #27)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 01:16 PM

29. Hell the worst using that BS was TRUMP on Twitter. He would ADD 6% to any Obama unemployment number.

Claimed it was for the zillions who had just given up on finding a job. Now....CRICKETS.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 01:15 PM

28. And yet I STILL go to a big box store,super market and there is NO ONE waiting on customers......

There might be five or TEN check out counters and maybe one or two people working while the line backs up. Just saw a sign at the Micky D's down the street needing help--for all of 8.00 per hour. Where's a tight job market when they can get people at those wages??

When Clinton was Pres and the economy was truly exploding we had MD's here paying and BEGGING for help at a starting wage of 7.00 per hour,that was about double of minimum wage in 97/98.

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Response to Bengus81 (Reply #28)

Mon Jun 4, 2018, 02:12 PM

43. Not everyone can work at every job.

People may not be working at the box stores because they are working elsewhere at jobs with better benefits and pay. Box stores can only have their labor costs go up so much because they are competing with the internet which does not have to pay infrastructure costs.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 05:08 PM

30. No doubt the Trump administration will take credit. The buffoons in this country will vote for him.

Case closed. Dems will have a hard time rationalizing to the public the fact that the previous administration had a huge impact on what we are currently experiencing. In 2008 we could only sink just a bit further into a devastating depression. The only way was up ... or so it seems.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jun 1, 2018, 07:25 PM

32. One thing I'm trying to wrap my thinking around is...

how does the immigration crackdown affect recent job reports? In the past, and to a degree now, we know many companies hired undocumented workers in dozens of industries and service type jobs. I've never understood how they covered this on their books. For many years, I witnessed many of those workers on industrial jobs, and locally doing lawn care, roofing, hotel and food industry jobs.

One question then is who are the people that are replacing those workers, OR are they still hiring the undocumented workers and just doing more to conceal the fact? And, we've heard many stories about some sectors not being able to find workers, such as sea food workers, people to pick crops, etc. So, has that in effect reduced the number of American jobs?

I'm very suspicious about tRump's cabal of crooks creating an unemployment report because we know they will cook it make it look good for this administration.

...... ........

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 06:47 AM

51. Jobs numbers are always good in the summer months when young people get summer jobs.

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Response to secondwind (Reply #51)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 06:59 AM

52. That stat might not show up until maybe July/August though....

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Response to secondwind (Reply #51)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 07:42 AM

53. The job numbers are seasonally adjusted n/t

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 11:45 AM

56. Great! Obama's economic strategy's at work...

And supporting americuns.

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Response to Maxheader (Reply #56)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 05:17 PM

61. Exactly!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Thu Jun 14, 2018, 10:03 PM

69. yeah, only the jobs suck and pay poverty wages. surprise. nt

 

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