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Wed Jan 31, 2018, 10:22 AM

U.S. Private Sector Added 234,000 Jobs in January

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

U.S. Private Sector Added 234,000 Jobs in January

Economists had expected the addition of 193,000 jobs

By Austen Hufford
Jan. 31, 2018 8:41 a.m. ET

Hiring at private U.S. employers grew more than expected in January, according to a report.

Firms across the country added 234,000 workers in January, according to payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. and forecasting firm Moody’s Analytics.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected the addition of 193,000 jobs.

{Snip. Subscription required.}

Read more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-private-sector-adds-234-000-jobs-in-january-1517406115



I thought they'd wait until tomorrow.

10 replies, 1174 views

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Reply U.S. Private Sector Added 234,000 Jobs in January (Original post)
mahatmakanejeeves Jan 2018 OP
Drunken Irishman Jan 2018 #1
IronLionZion Jan 2018 #6
Drunken Irishman Jan 2018 #8
IronLionZion Jan 2018 #9
Drunken Irishman Jan 2018 #10
yallerdawg Jan 2018 #2
mahatmakanejeeves Jan 2018 #3
yallerdawg Jan 2018 #4
mahatmakanejeeves Jan 2018 #5
SunSeeker Jan 2018 #7

Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Jan 31, 2018, 10:28 AM

1. These are estimates of the government numbers not the actual government numbers.

ADP always releases their estimates earlier in the week - the government theirs on Friday.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 31, 2018, 10:53 AM

6. ADP processes payroll, their numbers could be argued as more accurate

About the Report
The ADP National Employment Report® is published monthly by the ADP Research Institute® in close collaboration with Moody’s Analytics and its experienced team of labor market researchers. The ADP National Employment Report provides a monthly snapshot of U.S. nonfarm private sector employment based on actual transactional payroll data.


summary of their methodology: https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/common-legacy/docs/ADP-NER-Methodology-Exec-Summary.pdf

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #6)

Wed Jan 31, 2018, 04:04 PM

8. Government numbers are official. These are not.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #8)

Wed Jan 31, 2018, 04:13 PM

9. The government numbers are based on a survey

https://www.bls.gov/ces/

Each month, CES surveys approximately 147,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 634,000 individual worksites.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #9)

Wed Jan 31, 2018, 08:47 PM

10. The government numbers are official. These are not.

This isn't a debate. The government numbers are the official totals. These numbers are not used in any official capacity.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Jan 31, 2018, 10:30 AM

2. Who owns the 'Wall Street Journal' and...

why would they want to 'pump' the stock market today?

And for some reason, these numbers never match the DOL job numbers!

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Response to yallerdawg (Reply #2)

Wed Jan 31, 2018, 10:35 AM

3. Sometimes they're close; sometimes not. I'll get some charts from the ADP report.

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 234,000 Jobs in January

Private-sector employment increased by 234,000 from December to January, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Total Employment

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment



{CHART} Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

Historical Trend

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment



{CHART} Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

That second chart makes ADP and BLS look mighty close, but note that the divisions on the y-axis are 200,000 jobs apart. If you were to zoom in to a closer view, the disagreements would become easier to spot.

I'll post my list of previous reports in another post.

And good morning.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 31, 2018, 10:43 AM

4. Dow up 200 points.

Pump it today, then the real figures come out.

Same thing every month.

Although 'in the ball park' seems to satisfy 'the investor class' today.

Why not? They've never had so many 'chips' to play with. More coming in February!

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Jan 31, 2018, 10:47 AM

5. Previous ADP and BLS employment reports.

From Payroll employment increases by 148,000 in December; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

Links to earlier reports

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2017:

U.S. private sector adds 250,000 jobs in December, biggest rise since March

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 228,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2017:

I didn't get around to it.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 261,000 in October; unemployment rate edges down to 4.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2017:

ADP says 235,000 private-sector jobs added in October

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2017:

Unemployment rate falls to 4.2% in September; payroll employment changes little (-33,000)

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2017:

Companies Add Fewest U.S. Workers in Nearly a Year, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 156,000 in August; unemployment rate changes little (4.4%)

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2017:

Private-sector job growth surges in August with a little Amazon assist, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 209,000 in July; unemployment rate changes little at 4.3%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2017:

U.S. private sector adds 178,000 jobs in July: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 222,000 in June; unemployment rate changes little at 4.4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2017:

ADP Data on Private Hiring Suggest U.S. Job Market Is Moderating

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 138,000 in May; unemployment rate changes little (4.3%)

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2017:

U.S. companies add 253,000 jobs in May: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 211,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little at 4.4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2017:

Private-sector hiring slowest in four months, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2017:

Unemployment rate declines to 4.5 percent in March; payroll employment edges up by 98,000

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2017:

Private sector adds 263,000 jobs in March: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 235,000 in February; unemployment rate changes little at 4.7%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2017:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 298,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 227,000 in January; unemployment rate changes little (4.8%)

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2017:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 246,000 Jobs in January

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2016:

Payroll employment rises by 156,000 in December; unemployment rate changes little (4.7%)

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2016:

Private hiring slows in December, jobs market still solid

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2016:

Unemployment rate declines to 4.6% in November; payroll employment increases by 178,000

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Jan 31, 2018, 01:44 PM

7. After calling jobs numbers fake, Trump suddenly embraces them.

But we're still working under the Obama budget, so Trump has no basis to take credit.

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