March 2, 2016

538 Delegate Targets (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

Clinton is now at 113% of her target (while Trump is at 112% of his), and a current delegate count of 596 total.

What made me smile is that, if you look ahead to March fifth, Clinton would be ahead of her target at the end of the day if she didn't receive a single delegate during those contests.

She would still be even with her target if she didn't receive a single delegate on March 6th, although she'd fall behind on March 8th.

Clinton must be feeling very, very positive this morning. She's actually picked up a four state all-delegate advantage. Smaller states, admittedly, but still.

March 1, 2016

OK Exit Polls (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/oklahoma/exit/

It's quite early, and exit polls always stink (remember Nevada?) but these are looking very good for Clinton!

At best, it's an interesting and possibly useful data point. I wouldn't make too much hay of it just yet.

March 1, 2016

American Samoa Up First! (Hillary Clinton Group)

American Samoa's caucus will be held at 2 PM Eastern time and will award 6 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

The caucus is quite small (AS only has about 55,000 residents), low key, held at a single hotel, and should report in fairly quickly. Expect results by 4 to 5 PM.

Hillary Clinton won the AS caucus in 2008, 57 to 43. There were 285 caucus-goers in 2008 (this is not a misprint).

February 29, 2016

Kos on Wrapping It Up (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/29/1492734/-Democrats-South-Carolina-and-wrapping-up-our-primary-season

This is a wonderful, if sometimes rather harsh on Sanders, evaluation on the way things look right now. His fair cop is a maximum of five states won by Sanders tomorrow. Maximum.

February 29, 2016

Suffolk Poll, MA, Clinton +8 (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/02/28/clinton-leads-sanders-massachusetts/81078554/

As noted, the poll ended Saturday and does not account for any post SC bounce. MOE is 4.4, so the spread is outside that, but with an MOE of that size the poll is of modest reliability only.

Still, Sanders' Tuesday night may be even rougher than we think. Even the smallest win in MA destroys his New England firewall.

February 25, 2016

First Rhode Island poll! Clinton +9 (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://wpri.com/2016/02/25/poll-clinton-trump-on-top-in-ri-primary-races/

Clinton leads 49-40 in the first Rhode Island poll I've seen in a while.

Uh, so about that New England firewall that Sanders has? Um...we may need to discuss that.

February 25, 2016

Monmouth Poll: Clinton +34 Texas (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/fd1752af-cc7a-4b4c-9125-1d26f351cc4a.pdf

I don't think this has been posted yet--admins, please feel free to delete if I missed it in the mass of polls today!

Mrs. Clinton leads the Lone Star state by +34 (64-30), consistent with other current polls.

The fun takeaway here is that 24% of Clinton's voters have already early voted, 18% of Sanders' voters have early voted.

So, where's that lack of motivation among Clinton supporters again? I'm not seeing it in Texas, that's for sure.

February 25, 2016

Austin American-Statesman +40 Clinton (Clinton Group)

http://projects.statesman.com/news/texas-pulse-statesman-poll/

Select the Democratic numbers to view those.

In this poll, probably a slight outlier, Clinton leads 66 to 26, a +40 lead.

February 24, 2016

Kos Straw Poll (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/23/1489795/-Daily-Kos-Democratic-Primary-Straw-Poll-2-23-16

Let's start out by stating, definitively, that straw polls mean diddly squat nothing null zero jack.

Just to be quite emphatic about that.

However, it's interesting to note the erosion in Sanders' numbers even on a sister site that's notoriously liberal. Just working from the very end of last year (when the Sanders campaign really got rolling):

12/29/15: Sanders 73, Clinton 26
1/13/16: Sanders 65 (-8), Clinton 32 (+8)
1/26/16: Sanders 61 (-4, -12 overall), Clinton 35 (+3, +11 overall)
2/23/16: Sanders 53 (-8, -20 overall), Clinton 44 (+9, +20 overall)
(the last entry can be found at the current poll at the bottom of the page)

Again, this means nothing, but I found the trend line interesting. From a very strong +47 dominance, Sanders has fallen to a scant +7 lead in what should be a bastion of very strong support for him.

February 21, 2016

Early SC guesses? (Hillary Clinton Group)

Now that Nevada's behind us and we're doing some well-deserved celebrating, anybody care to guess about SC next Saturday?

I'll put mine in on Clinton +22.