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aaaaaa5a's JournalNew Poll NH: PPP O-49 R-47
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49/47 in New Hampshire, a 3 point improvement from our poll last week when he was down 49/48.
http://twitter.com/ppppolls
Meet The Press.... props up 49-49 Ohio Poll... ignores more recently polling showing Obama ahead.
I was watching Meet The Press. And good old Chuck Todd was at his wall. He and David Gregory were touting the "so called" latest poll showing Ohio tied 49-49. Of course there was no mention of that fact that the poll was a week old. And that most of it was done before the 3rd debate. And of course they ignored the more recent polls out of Ohio showing the President ahead from 3-4 points.
AMAZING PROPAGANDA!
Obama lead in Virginia up to 5 points
Source: Public Policy Polling
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama expanding his lead in the aftermath of his debate victory Monday night. He now has 51% to 46% for Mitt Romney, up from a 49/47 advantage last weekend.
Obama’s seen a 7 point net improvement in his favorability rating among Virginia voters from a -3 spread last week (48/51) to now +4 at 51/47. Romney’s numbers have headed in the other direction. He’s dropped 7 points from a +2 spread on our last poll (49/47) to now -5 at 46/51.
Read more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/
The National Memo: "Is The Race In Ohio Already Over?"
As both presidential campaigns ratchet up their efforts to capture Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, recent polling suggests the race might already be over—for Mitt Romney.
Certain key data from the latest polls suggest that President Obama’s victory in the Buckeye State could be a foregone conclusion — because each survey suggests that President Obama holds a double digit lead among those who have already voted.
SNIP
Another important indicator that bodes well for Obama can be found in the registration numbers. According to a memo released by the Obama campaign, four in five in Ohioans who have registered to vote this cycle are either female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino, which are all demographics that lean strongly Democratic. Additionally, almost two-thirds of Ohioans who registered to vote live in counties where Obama won in 2008.
Other favorable statistics for Obama can be found in the early voting data. Specifically, 55 percent of the early-vote ballots requested in 2012 come from women, which is 3 percentage points greater than in 2008.
Full article: (Its not very long)
http://www.nationalmemo.com/is-the-race-in-ohio-already-over/
At this point, If North Carolina is no longer a battle-ground state, than neither is Ohio.
Where can we find some objectivity?
If you look at the polls of Ohio over the last 2 weeks and match them up with North Carolina, they are nearly identical.
First North Carolina. (October polls based on RCP)
Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 500 LV 4.5 52 46 Romney +6
PPP (D) 10/12 - 10/14 1084 LV 3.0 49 47 Romney +2
Rasmussen Reports 10/9 - 10/9 500 LV 4.5 51 48 Romney +3
Gravis Marketing 10/6 - 10/8 1325 LV 2.9 50 41 Romney +9
Rasmussen Reports 10/2 - 10/2 500 LV 4.5 51 47 Romney +4
SurveyUSA 9/29 - 10/1 573 LV 4.2 47 49 Obama +2
And now Ohio. (October polls based on RCP)
Rasmussen Reports 10/23 - 10/23 750 LV 4.0 48 48 Tie
Time 10/22 - 10/23 783 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
SurveyUSA 10/20 - 10/22 609 LV 4.1 47 44 Obama +3
Suffolk 10/18 - 10/21 600 LV 4.0 47 47 Tie
PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/20 532 LV 4.3 49 48 Obama +1
CBS News/Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/20 1548 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gravis Marketing 10/18 - 10/19 1943 LV 2.2 47 47 Tie
FOX News 10/17 - 10/18 1131 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3
Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 750 LV 4.0 49 48 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/15 613 LV 4.0 45 42 Obama +3
PPP (D) 10/12 - 10/13 880 LV 3.3 51 46 Obama +5
Rasmussen Reports 10/10 - 10/10 750 LV 4.0 48 47 Obama +1
Gravis Marketing 10/6 - 10/10 1313 LV 2.7 45 46 Romney +1
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/7 - 10/9 994 LV 3.1 51 45 Obama +6
ARG 10/5 - 10/8 600 LV 4.0 47 48 Romney +1
CNN/Opinion Research 10/5 - 10/8 722 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/5 - 10/8 808 LV 3.5 45 44 Obama +1
WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 46 47 Romney +1
Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 50 49 Obama +1
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 931 LV 3.2 51 43 Obama +8
2 out of the last 5 polls in Ohio have Obama leading by 5! If North Carolina is no longer a battleground state, shouldn't Ohio be at least a "strong lean" to Obama and not a true tossup? The polling is nearly identical. And in Ohio we have strong early voting which makes Obama's numbers actually even better than any hypothetical Romney numbers in NC.
Is this because if the mainstream media reported on Ohio the same way they did North Carolina, they would be telling the public the election is basically over?
BTW, I checked 538 and Romney has an 86% chance of winning NC. Obama has a 70% chance of winning OH. But this is before today's update which given the polls will very likely lift Obama's odds in OH higher.
The reality is both states are in the exact same place with regards to this race. And Romney winning Ohio is about just as probable as Obama winning North Carolina.
But watching the MSM, only political nerds like me seem to realize this.
The media (and GOP) can't have it both ways? Can they?
If we had this much information for any state NOT CALLED OHIO, we would have no problem comfortably moving the state to the Obama column and moving on to true tossup states.
My rant is now over.
Thank you.
"The Daily Rundown with Chuck Todd" Why Obama is winning AND will win this race.
Here is some video of today's "The Daily Rundown with Chuck Todd."
Day after day there has been analysis of a "Romney surge" and President back on his heels against a Romney campaign in full command of the election.
But notice what happens when the political pundits sit down and calmly asses how each candidate is fairing in the battleground states and the race to 270. As you watch this, remember there are only 2 weeks left, and the early voting in many of these states is looking great for the President.
Question?
How is Romney in the lead with regard to anything associated with 270?
NPR:Making Sense of Presidential Polls-listen here
On Friday Nate Silver did an interview for NPR discussing the science of polls and this years Presidential race.
I think this is a must listen to for many posters here.
The audio should be be available at the link below.
http://www.npr.org/2012/10/19/163245520/making-sense-of-presidential-polls
The segment runs 17 minutes and is very informative. Please note the Presidential forecasts of the guests of the show.
New Ohio Poll PPP: Obama 49% Romney 48%
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Obama is up 66/34 with early voters in Ohio (21% of electorate) but down 52/44 with those yet to vote
Expand
53s PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Our new Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-48, down from 51-46 last week
Expand
http://twitter.com/ppppolls
How does the GOP do such a good job of framing the state of the race?
I find the RCP average of polls to be a very accurate indicator of where a race is.
In 2008 it predicted all but one of the states correctly. The RCP average of polls really only missed twice. It had McCain beating Obama in Indiana. (Although the margins were absurdly close so I actually give them a pass here.) And it had Obama winning by a narrow margin in Nevada. And it ended up being an Obama blowout.
So overall the RCP average of polls has a good track record.
Therefore I don’t understand is how the GOP controls the storyline based on these numbers.
For instance…
As of Saturday 10/20/12 at 10:30AM here is the RCP average for Florida
Romney +2.1
And here is the average for Virginia
Tie 48/48 (Does NOT include the PPP poll which would give Obama an edge.)
Now here is the RCP average for Ohio.
Obama +2.6
Here is the average for Iowa.
Obama + 2.4
And here is the average for Wisconsin
Obama +2.8
Question?
How come the storyline of the last few days is that Florida (Romney+2.1) and Virginia (Even/Obama actually ahead with PPP number out today) are barely even considered battleground states by the media?
But Ohio (Obama+2.6), Wisconsin (Obama+2.8) and Iowa (Obama+2.4) are considered hotly contested “down to the wire” tossups?
Just based on the numbers, Obama is more likely to win Florida and Virginia than Romney is Ohio, Wisconsin and/or Iowa. There hasn’t been a credible poll showing Romney ahead in Ohio in weeks. Two very credible pollsters (Survey USA/PPP) are showing Obama winning Virginia and Florida AS OF THIS MORNING!
It just never ceases to amaze me how much better the GOP is at messaging than we are.
Just to round of my rant. Based on the RCP average, here are two more “for sure/ no doubt about it” Romney states:
Colorado (Romney +0.2)
New Hampshire (Romney +1)
And 1 more “battle-ground/anything can happen tossup” state for Obama
Nevada (Obama +3)
I won’t even go into the fact that Obama only needs roughly 3 of these states. And Romney will need all but 1 or 2 to win.
Yup… it looks like Romney is in perfect position!
I wish Chuck Todd could explain this to me.
Too many Mitts: Obama has earned another term
Source: The Salt Lake Tribune
Nowhere has Mitt Romney’s pursuit of the presidency been more warmly welcomed or closely followed than here in Utah. The Republican nominee’s political and religious pedigrees, his adeptly bipartisan governorship of a Democratic state, and his head for business and the bottom line all inspire admiration and hope in our largely Mormon, Republican, business-friendly state.
But it was Romney’s singular role in rescuing Utah’s organization of the 2002 Olympics from a cesspool of scandal, and his oversight of the most successful Winter Games on record, that make him the Beehive State’s favorite adopted son. After all, Romney managed to save the state from ignominy, turning the extravaganza into a showcase for the matchless landscapes, volunteerism and efficiency that told the world what is best and most beautiful about Utah and its people.
In short, this is the Mitt Romney we knew, or thought we knew, as one of us.
Sadly, it is not the only Romney, as his campaign for the White House has made abundantly clear, first in his servile courtship of the tea party in order to win the nomination, and now as the party’s shape-shifting nominee. From his embrace of the party’s radical right wing, to subsequent portrayals of himself as a moderate champion of the middle class, Romney has raised the most frequently asked question of the campaign: "Who is this guy, really, and what in the world does he truly believe?
In considering which candidate to endorse, The Salt Lake Tribune editorial board had hoped that Romney would exhibit the same talents for organization, pragmatic problem-solving and inspired leadership that he displayed here more than a decade ago. Instead, we have watched him morph into a friend of the far right, then tack toward the center with breathtaking aplomb. Through a pair of presidential debates, Romney’s domestic agenda remains bereft of detail and worthy of mistrust.
Therefore, our endorsement must go to the incumbent, a competent leader who, against tough odds, has guided the country through catastrophe and set a course that, while rocky, is pointing toward a brighter day. The president has earned a second term. Romney, in whatever guise, does not deserve a first.
Read more: http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/opinion/55019844-82/romney-obama-state-president.html.csp
This is a very good article. Please click the link and read it.
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