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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:10 PM

At this point, If North Carolina is no longer a battle-ground state, than neither is Ohio.

Where can we find some objectivity?

If you look at the polls of Ohio over the last 2 weeks and match them up with North Carolina, they are nearly identical.


First North Carolina. (October polls based on RCP)

Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 500 LV 4.5 52 46 Romney +6

PPP (D) 10/12 - 10/14 1084 LV 3.0 49 47 Romney +2

Rasmussen Reports 10/9 - 10/9 500 LV 4.5 51 48 Romney +3

Gravis Marketing 10/6 - 10/8 1325 LV 2.9 50 41 Romney +9

Rasmussen Reports 10/2 - 10/2 500 LV 4.5 51 47 Romney +4

SurveyUSA 9/29 - 10/1 573 LV 4.2 47 49 Obama +2


And now Ohio. (October polls based on RCP)

Rasmussen Reports 10/23 - 10/23 750 LV 4.0 48 48 Tie

Time 10/22 - 10/23 783 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5

SurveyUSA 10/20 - 10/22 609 LV 4.1 47 44 Obama +3

Suffolk 10/18 - 10/21 600 LV 4.0 47 47 Tie

PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/20 532 LV 4.3 49 48 Obama +1

CBS News/Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/20 1548 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5

Gravis Marketing 10/18 - 10/19 1943 LV 2.2 47 47 Tie

FOX News 10/17 - 10/18 1131 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3

Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 750 LV 4.0 49 48 Obama +1

SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/15 613 LV 4.0 45 42 Obama +3

PPP (D) 10/12 - 10/13 880 LV 3.3 51 46 Obama +5

Rasmussen Reports 10/10 - 10/10 750 LV 4.0 48 47 Obama +1

Gravis Marketing 10/6 - 10/10 1313 LV 2.7 45 46 Romney +1

NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/7 - 10/9 994 LV 3.1 51 45 Obama +6

ARG 10/5 - 10/8 600 LV 4.0 47 48 Romney +1

CNN/Opinion Research 10/5 - 10/8 722 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4

SurveyUSA 10/5 - 10/8 808 LV 3.5 45 44 Obama +1

WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 46 47 Romney +1

Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 50 49 Obama +1

NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 931 LV 3.2 51 43 Obama +8



2 out of the last 5 polls in Ohio have Obama leading by 5! If North Carolina is no longer a battleground state, shouldn't Ohio be at least a "strong lean" to Obama and not a true tossup? The polling is nearly identical. And in Ohio we have strong early voting which makes Obama's numbers actually even better than any hypothetical Romney numbers in NC.

Is this because if the mainstream media reported on Ohio the same way they did North Carolina, they would be telling the public the election is basically over?

BTW, I checked 538 and Romney has an 86% chance of winning NC. Obama has a 70% chance of winning OH. But this is before today's update which given the polls will very likely lift Obama's odds in OH higher.

The reality is both states are in the exact same place with regards to this race. And Romney winning Ohio is about just as probable as Obama winning North Carolina.

But watching the MSM, only political nerds like me seem to realize this.

The media (and GOP) can't have it both ways? Can they?

If we had this much information for any state NOT CALLED OHIO, we would have no problem comfortably moving the state to the Obama column and moving on to true tossup states.


My rant is now over.

Thank you.

31 replies, 2820 views

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Arrow 31 replies Author Time Post
Reply At this point, If North Carolina is no longer a battle-ground state, than neither is Ohio. (Original post)
aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 OP
erik satie Oct 2012 #1
Coyotl Oct 2012 #21
MFM008 Oct 2012 #2
AndyTiedye Oct 2012 #8
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #3
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #4
AJH032 Oct 2012 #5
ffr Oct 2012 #6
Tx4obama Oct 2012 #12
graham4anything Oct 2012 #7
ffr Oct 2012 #9
ItsTheMediaStupid Oct 2012 #10
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #14
obamanut2012 Oct 2012 #19
SoCalMusicLover Oct 2012 #11
kansasobama Oct 2012 #13
onenote Oct 2012 #15
smorkingapple Oct 2012 #16
unc70 Oct 2012 #23
Amphigouri Oct 2012 #17
unc70 Oct 2012 #24
-LOKI -BAD FOR YA Oct 2012 #29
RosedaleGuy Oct 2012 #30
obamanut2012 Oct 2012 #18
RomneyLies Oct 2012 #20
Jennicut Oct 2012 #22
amborin Oct 2012 #25
LisaL Oct 2012 #26
GetTheRightVote Oct 2012 #27
naviman Oct 2012 #28
Lex Oct 2012 #31

Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:12 PM

1. all battleground states are in play for Obama

and if there's a blowout, states like Arizona and Missouri might come in play as well.

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Response to erik satie (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:58 PM

21. Obama should best his 2008 total

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:12 PM

2. thank you

Im watching this clown on CNN give NC to Romney. Ohio has been steady for Obama and new poll has him 4 or 5 ahead but they dont even LEAN it to Obama. Anyone who says the media isnt manipulating this thing is asleep in front of the TV.

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Response to MFM008 (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:21 PM

8. MOE is +0%, -10% for Romney

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:13 PM

3. Gravis is an outliar, too. I also think that Ras' 6-point lead is too optimistic as well.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:16 PM

4. NC will be as close as it was last time. Who the hell is CNN that they decide what is close.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:19 PM

5. But then this race wouldn't be tight

and we can't allow that, now can we?

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:20 PM

6. Any Secretary of State Early Voter stats there?

Some states have links showing total votes and party stats. That's far more interesting than any poll, in my estimation.

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Response to ffr (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:27 PM

12. Check out the link below there are some early voting stats there

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:20 PM

7. We won. The media is like the Knights who say Ni-they just don't know it yet

 

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:22 PM

9. No we have not won. If we stopped EV today we'd lose.

So stop saying that. We need everyone to turn out, otherwise all our labors will be for nothing and we'd have to endure 4 years of Romney Ryan HELL!

GOTV or bust!

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:23 PM

10. North Carolina is a Battleground State - Early Voting Leads

Add this to GOTV for election day and lots of new Democrats registered, Obama has a much better chance than 20% in NC.

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Response to ItsTheMediaStupid (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:01 PM

14. Same day registration and voting in the early voting period

favors Dems as well. We're working hard here in NC and I think it's a true toss-up.

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Response to ItsTheMediaStupid (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:45 PM

19. And same-day registrations don't show up in the early voting tallies

ie daily counts, or so the woman at the BoE told me. And, same-day regs are HEAVILY the youth vote (ie college kids) here.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:26 PM

11. Keeping It Close To STEAL It

Everyone continues to say that Ohio is a "must win" state for RMoney.

By keeping it in play, they make it more justifiable if/when they attempt to steal it on Election Day.

If the media determined and stated that Ohio was clearly going Obama's way, any theft in 2 weeks would look much more suspicious.

Just my take on things. Keep in mind that I'm into conspiracies, and I am almost 100% certain the 2004 election was stolen via electronic voting.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:28 PM

13. NC is in play

Remember, EV is critical. Also, if they keep calling game over in NC, Republicans may show less enthusiasm. You never know.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)


Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:08 PM

16. Not every 5 point lead is equal. There's a reason Nate Silver has Romney with a 85% chance

of taking NC while Obama has a 70% chance of taking OH with the same vote. He calls it state fundamentals. Check his site for what those mean.

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Response to smorkingapple (Reply #16)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:18 PM

23. Nate is limited by the lack of polling in NC

I think he is overly generous on NC fundamentals. For now, the only polls that matter in NC are the early voting ones.

I think Ohio will change status on 538 with the addition of a few more polls favoring Obama, possibly even with those released today.

With the bad data aging out at Gallup from its really bad polling days last week, the resulting "surge" by Obama in its tracking poll should push Romney into a panic.

BTW There were a couple of extended threads earlier today regarding NC. It will be very close here.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:34 PM

17. The rules are different for a challenger

While a challenger can lead a state, and expect to win it with a lead in the polls under 50%, an incumbent needs to have needs 50% +1 for a true lead. Traditionally, undecided voters break 2 to 1 for the challenger at this point in an election. Also, commitments to an incumbent are traditionally softer than commitments to a challenger. Romney has over 50% in NC in most polls, and Obama only won there by less than 1% last time. I don't see it going our way, and frankly don't like to see us doggedly spending resources in a state that doesn't really matter in the long run. So take the resources we would use in NC and defend OH. Everybody knows that is where this thing is won or lost anyway. This is also why Florida and Virginia don't look good. It doesn't matter if we lose FL, NC, CO, even NH; take OH, WI and MI. Focus resources there, and this thing is over.

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Response to Amphigouri (Reply #17)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:35 PM

24. Strongly disagree on nearly every point. NC very much in play

There are several very detailed discussions today regarding NC with real data and good insight. You really should read them.

Your statement about incumbent vs challenger polling, lead required, and behavior of undecided is way too simplistic. The Obama GOTV ground game in NC, Ohio, and elsewhere isn't about some nebulous group of undecided voters; it is micro focused to individual potential voters. I discuss this in one of those threads.

NC is going to be very close either way. Turnout is the key. With it we win here like in 2008. The polls were wrong then, too.

Ohio is probably Obama by 4-5% is there is not some huge, obvious problem. Part of the Obama plan is to have so much of a lead during early voting and combined by multiple polls during early voting serving as "exit polls". By widely reporting our growing advantage during early voting will make it much more difficult to "steal" on election day in Ohio.

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Response to Amphigouri (Reply #17)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 11:10 AM

29. its called the fifty state state strategy

i disagree we sure not give up if we have a chance of winning ,robme has to defend every state,he can not move resources around,i like our chances . do not concede the battle went you are ahead.

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Response to Amphigouri (Reply #17)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 11:56 AM

30. I agree NC is highly unlikely

NC is a red state that turned blue in 2008. Animosity for the GOP was very high and Hope and Change looked really good in 2008. Yet NC was still one by a razor thin margin. It's just hard to imagine doing better in 2012 than we did in 2008. I would love to be wrong.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:43 PM

18. Romney isn't going to win NC by that much

I will even say Obama has a good chance of winning by 1-3%. I say it's too close to call.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:55 PM

20. AND THEY'RE OFF

 

Coming around the first bend it's OBAMA BY A NOSE!

OBAMA takes an early lead and moves two lengths ahead.

BUT HERE COMES ROMNEY ON THE OUTSIDE MOVING UP!

OBAMA STILL LEADS BY HALF A LENGTH BUT ROMNEY'S COMING ON STRONG!!!

OH NO, OBAMA GETS BUMPED AND NOW IT'S ROMNEY BY A NOSE!!!

ROMNEY LEADS OUT TO A QUARTER LENGTH WITH OBAMA CLOSE BEHIND!

ROMNEY STILL LEADS BUT OBAMA IS NOW COMING UP ON THE INSIDE!!!

IT'S NECK AND NECK IN THE FINAL TURN!!!

ROMNEY LEADS!!!

OBAMA LEADS!!!

ROMNEY TAKES THE LEAD AGAIN!!!!

NOW OBAMA!!!!

AND THE WINNER IS ___________ BY A NOSE!!!!

Hold on, it's a photo finish. Here comes the hand counters......

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:03 PM

22. NC is close.

It is less close then either VA or FL per the polling but still winnable. But it would be like icing on the cake. Not really needed.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:37 PM

25. NO! Complacency about any "leaning" state or the race, more generally, is BAD n/t

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:45 PM

26. NC is a battle-ground state.

Early voting turnout is up.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:08 PM

27. This is great news...

Go Obama Go!!!

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:16 PM

28. Rasmussen and Gravis? LOL

PPP is releasing poll of NC tomorrow, let's see what happens. Early vote stats look very good.

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Response to naviman (Reply #28)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:52 PM

31. When does PPP usually release on state polls?

In the evening, if I recall correctly.

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