At this point, If North Carolina is no longer a battle-ground state, than neither is Ohio.

Where can we find some objectivity?

If you look at the polls of Ohio over the last 2 weeks and match them up with North Carolina, they are nearly identical.


First North Carolina. (October polls based on RCP)

Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 500 LV 4.5 52 46 Romney +6

PPP (D) 10/12 - 10/14 1084 LV 3.0 49 47 Romney +2

Rasmussen Reports 10/9 - 10/9 500 LV 4.5 51 48 Romney +3

Gravis Marketing 10/6 - 10/8 1325 LV 2.9 50 41 Romney +9

Rasmussen Reports 10/2 - 10/2 500 LV 4.5 51 47 Romney +4

SurveyUSA 9/29 - 10/1 573 LV 4.2 47 49 Obama +2


And now Ohio. (October polls based on RCP)

Rasmussen Reports 10/23 - 10/23 750 LV 4.0 48 48 Tie

Time 10/22 - 10/23 783 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5

SurveyUSA 10/20 - 10/22 609 LV 4.1 47 44 Obama +3

Suffolk 10/18 - 10/21 600 LV 4.0 47 47 Tie

PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/20 532 LV 4.3 49 48 Obama +1

CBS News/Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/20 1548 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5

Gravis Marketing 10/18 - 10/19 1943 LV 2.2 47 47 Tie

FOX News 10/17 - 10/18 1131 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3

Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 750 LV 4.0 49 48 Obama +1

SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/15 613 LV 4.0 45 42 Obama +3

PPP (D) 10/12 - 10/13 880 LV 3.3 51 46 Obama +5

Rasmussen Reports 10/10 - 10/10 750 LV 4.0 48 47 Obama +1

Gravis Marketing 10/6 - 10/10 1313 LV 2.7 45 46 Romney +1

NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/7 - 10/9 994 LV 3.1 51 45 Obama +6

ARG 10/5 - 10/8 600 LV 4.0 47 48 Romney +1

CNN/Opinion Research 10/5 - 10/8 722 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4

SurveyUSA 10/5 - 10/8 808 LV 3.5 45 44 Obama +1

WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 46 47 Romney +1

Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 50 49 Obama +1

NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 931 LV 3.2 51 43 Obama +8



2 out of the last 5 polls in Ohio have Obama leading by 5! If North Carolina is no longer a battleground state, shouldn't Ohio be at least a "strong lean" to Obama and not a true tossup? The polling is nearly identical. And in Ohio we have strong early voting which makes Obama's numbers actually even better than any hypothetical Romney numbers in NC.

Is this because if the mainstream media reported on Ohio the same way they did North Carolina, they would be telling the public the election is basically over?

BTW, I checked 538 and Romney has an 86% chance of winning NC. Obama has a 70% chance of winning OH. But this is before today's update which given the polls will very likely lift Obama's odds in OH higher.

The reality is both states are in the exact same place with regards to this race. And Romney winning Ohio is about just as probable as Obama winning North Carolina.

But watching the MSM, only political nerds like me seem to realize this.

The media (and GOP) can't have it both ways? Can they?

If we had this much information for any state NOT CALLED OHIO, we would have no problem comfortably moving the state to the Obama column and moving on to true tossup states.


My rant is now over.

Thank you.