As the Republican hold on Congress becomes more tenuous every day, some within the Republican Party, and the media (either in Politico or Slate) are running with the narrative of 'Remember 1998!'
On the surface it may seem apt; a sitting president under fire, the public is not overly thrilled with the man sitting in the White House, impeachment, those who liked the president could not be swayed and those that did not like the president, likewise, could not be swayed and a solid economy. And that ladies and gentlemen is where the comparisons begin and end.
The reasons why are numerous. But, I'm going to stick with what I believe are the four strongest reasons why the comparison falls flat.
1. The President. In 1998 the President, Bill Clinton, kept a fairly low profile. President Clinton was completing his 6th year as president. People had seen what he was capable of, what his strengths and weaknesses were. Clinton had handled the economy, several homegrown terrorist issues, natural disasters that hit different regions of the country, etc. People had pretty much adjusted to what he was like, his strengths, his weaknesses, etc. Clinton was, for all intents and purposes winding down his presidency.
Trump is finishing off his 2nd year as president. People have kind of seen what he is capable of as president. People who like him, love him and people who don't like him, hate him. People have only seen a few things that Trump has done in a crisis. His handling of the economy, terrorist issues, mass shootings, etc. There is no full body of work to latch onto yet.
Unlike Clinton, Trump has politicized everything that has happened. There is not one event of prominence that has gone on in this country that Trump has not turned into being about him and his policies. If a non-white, immigrant commits a crime it happened because there's no wall and people need to built his high, beautiful wall. Wildfires in California, no aid or minimal aid only to the regions he won. Trump is unable (not unwilling) to see the 'Us'. It is all HIM and his followers.
Trump, unlike Clinton in '98, is able to run for another four year term.
2. The Economy. Good, solid economy. Low unemployment. What could possibly be the problem?
Two things:
A. When Clinton took office, almost everyone realized the economy sucked. When Trump took office, the economy had been improving for a few years. It wasn't the greatest economy in history, but it was getting better. So, Trump inherited an improving economy. Also, in his first year, he inherited a budget that was still much an Obama Budget, not a Trump Budget.
The best way to describe it is this, 'Tomorrow Bill Belichik dies and I am named the new head coach of the New England Patriots. I inherited the team and players with which he built the Patriots. The only thing I could do in the first year, barring a serious slate of injuries, was ruin the team. I still have Belichiks economy: Tom Brady, Gronkowski, his coaching staff, etc
People seem to understand this. Which is why Trump is not getting the credit he feels he deserves
B. By November of 1998, Clinton had been in office for 6 years. So, we had five years of Clinton's economy. Most people knew and accepted that even if they were only voting for the Democrats because they were pissed at the Republicans, they would keep the five years of economy that Clinton had helped build. So, in effect, they were steering the ship straight into Clinton, as opposed to away from him.
By voting Democrat in 2018, they are steering away from Trump.
3. We Now Live in Year Zero. A term from when Pol Pot took power in Cambodia. When Pol Pot seized control he announced that a new era had begun, there was no past, only the present and future. Trump has sort of done the same thing. All the good that has happened only happened after he was sworn in. He has left little wiggle room for the Republicans running for Congress to claim that things were pretty good when Obama was president because it will likely rile Trump and he'll turn to Twitter and hammer them.
Clinton, on the other hand, was more than willing to share success with the Democrats in Congress, so the Democrats were able to claim credit for some of the successes of the economy.
According to Trump, before he was inaugurated the country was a vast, impoverished wasteland, ruled over by Obama... oh... and Congress just happened to be run by the Republicans that are running re-election now. So why would I vote for a Republican who incompetently mismanaged all those years from 2010 until 2017?
4. Fatigue. This ties in with all three previous. Say what you want about Obama, or Clinton, or either Bush or even Reagan, like 'em or hate 'em, we were not inundated day-after-day-after-day with a narcissistic screed about something or the other that the President of the US feels the need to whine, complain or whatever about. The other five were not obnoxious, psychopathic, fabulists who couldn't stand not being seen, spoken to , or spoken about every damned day. We were not 'blessed' with the relentless daily lies, whining, complaining that we are subject to now.
The public tires of it after awhile, because most people don't feel they have to know what the president, any president, thinks about everything that happens every day. Presidents go on vacation and relax. Unless there is a crisis, they're pretty much invisible to the public eye. Not Trump.
I don't care who the president is, I live in Korea, the President here is Moon Jae-in, my favorite President. But, I don't want to hear from him every day on every issue just because he has some insecurity that the world might turn without his say (or twitting) something that has no reflection on his duties or because his feelings are hurt.
These are four reasons why I feel 1998 is not a strong comparison to 2018. There are others, I know.
The Blue Wave may not come, but I suspect it will because Trump is a serious millstone
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