HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » grantcart » Journal
Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 27 Next »

grantcart

Profile Information

Member since: Sat Jan 5, 2008, 08:45 PM
Number of posts: 45,427

Journal Archives

This is really about Trump pardoning Kim as a foreshadowing for Trump pardoning Trump

No regime has reduced its entire population to cannon fodder more effectively than North Korea. Tyranny, oppression, fear and mass starvation.

Of course any advancement that brings them out of isolation is a good thing. Just as it is with Cuba and Iran.

The real message that Trump is selling us however is not 'practical engagement', it is "sure they have murdered and oppressed their people but lets give them a new page, forget the past and move forward".

Effectively all of the crimes will be erased and a new bright future with bright tall buildings and openings for American businesses will be embraced.

We are about to see Donald Trump engage in a "forgiveness regime".

Forgiveness in the morning, afternoon and evening.

Embrace terrible dictators and release grandmothers in jail.

We are going to see months and months of acts of "pardoning and forgiveness".

All as a part of conditioning to that point he will forgive himself on behalf of the American people, it will sound something like this.



"I was never aware of all of the various meetings that were held with the Russians or all of the things that the Russians did to interfere with the elections. We cannot proceed any further by arguing about things that are over and no longer have any meaning anyway. In that spirit I will pardon all of the people involved in these acts so we can move forward. While I was not aware or active in any of these contacts I am going to include my name among the others so we can have a clear separation and move to a future where Americans will establish peace among all nations, like I did with North Korea."

Cliffordu is resting in ICU. Will move when he can use temporary ventilator.



Tuesday update: He has gone in for a Tracheal tube so that he can get a respirator and a feeding tube which are aimed at giving him stability in the upcoming months. The surgery isn't that difficult or dangerous but Clifford has lost so much muscle that he is on reserves and any little complication could be life threatening.

Two good things are he is getting great care at the VA in Portland and he is a fighter.

Don't expect any news until tomorrow morning.




Original OP


Cliffordu and I struck up one of those unlikely off line DU relationships as we seemingly had radically different sensibilities, Cliffordu had a titanic struggle with addiction and I was pretty close to a teetotaller. Cliffordu had hilarious stories about smoking weed in the army in Vietnam and I had hilarious stories living in Thailand but still haven't had my first cannabis in either smoke or brownie form.

I had lost my phone three months ago along with his phone number and got it back when Mopinko posted this thread updating on his condition:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10181087603

We kept up a weekly phone routine and over the years I had a lot of strange phone conversations with Clliffordu when he had fallen off the wagon and was going back and forth into rehab. It was as bad as it can get without dying from it. His divorce seemed to have a long lasting destabilizing effect on him. I found it hard to relate and just would listen. He had multiple trips to the emergency room, detox and rehab and it seemed to be locked into a fatal cycle.

Over the last 3 years it changed as he found a new lease by really committing to AA with multiple groups. He got full time employment in a home that was part of the complex rehab/legal system. He was working on his poetry and his music but he more importantly he had balance, perspective and humor that we missed. In the strange ways that these relationships go through he was now helping me stay motivated through business challenges and loss of friends and relatives.

Cliffordu found his place and was making a contribution.

Tomorrow Cliffordu will be having surgery that will help with his breathing as he combats a very aggressive ALS.

I am not really sure what the surgery does because his speech has become labored and monosyllabic as he grasps for air. The advance of this ALS has been stunning. Cliffordu advises he has lost 35 lbs of muscle in the last three months and is down to 135. His voice is a whisper of the loud and gregarious spirit that I was used to and each conversation was weaker than before.

This disease gave Cliffordu one gift, it gave all of the people that he touched a chance to check in with him and informing him of how they felt. A couple of days ago he talked about all of the visitors that were trekking to see him. I told him he was a seed generator, that all of these AA meetings (many times two a day for months at a time) he was throwing out seeds and he would never know how many people he touched.

Beside his family there were dozens of people that came by to see Cliffordu and tell him what he had done for them. "it was just like those seeds. Lots of people I only met a few times came to tell me my words had changed their life and gave them tools and hope. It has blown me away."

He told me this surgery will help him with the breathing and then he will rest and move to his final hospice.

I asked him if there was anything I could do from where I was, was he missing anything.

His answer was in a surprisingly strong voice filled with gratitude for what this last inning gave him in letting him know that he had delivered hope to a bunch that really needed it. His answer captured the clever, smart and very funny Cliffordu:

"The VA has been fantastic, as soon as they confirmed the diagnosis they arranged the best care. My disability was bumped up to $ 3,000. I have doctors, nurses, physical therapists. I have a private room and its like a clown car opens up and people have been streaming in. I have everything I need, everything is great I have no complaints, you know except for the whole dying part".

Cliffordu has been, is now and will always remain one of my heroes.

He will have a chance to read your comments when he wakes up from surgery tomorrow evening.

The real Democrats were at Valley Forge

They are the real Democrats because they were sacrificing to build a new country and knew that they had very little chance of ever personally benefitting from what they were risking their lives for.

When we think about the inconvenience of another robocall, or another candidate forum, or going down to make some calls we should remember that this is still the country that elected President Obama twice.

It isn't about us anymore, its about the generations down the road that will either be participating in a democratically led republic or wondering what happened that allowed mentally unstable people to reach a fulcrum of power that triggered massive round up of "illegal" residents, aggressive military interventions, tactical use of nuclear arms and disconnecting American industry from a global trading system that it dominated based on a primal tribal jingoism of America being first (all the while going to religious institutions that regularly taught that the "first will be last".)

One out of every four soldiers never made it through Valley Forge. They sacrificed their lives for a dream that they had little chance of seeing but out of the hope that they could pass a better life to the next generation.

We have that dream, as imperfect as it is, and the question is can we be patient, mature, disciplined and make a modest sacrifice to save the dream and pass it on to the next generation.



+++ The Continental Army that marched into Valley Forge consisted of about 12,000 people—soldiers, artificers, women, and children. Throughout the winter, patriot commanders and legislators faced the challenge of supplying a population the size of a colonial city.

+++ Scabies broke out due to the filthy conditions within the encampment, as did other, deadlier ailments. The army had a limited water supply for cooking, washing, and bathing. Dead horse remains often lay unburied, and Washington found the smell of some places intolerable.[33][34] Neither plumbing nor a standardized system of trash collection existed.

+++ At Valley Forge, the Continentals struggled to manage a disastrous supply crisis while retraining and reorganizing their units. About 1,700 to 2,000 soldiers died due to disease, possibly exacerbated by malnutrition.

+++ Subsequently, outbreaks of typhoid and dysentery spread through contaminated food and water. Soldiers contracted influenza and pneumonia, while still others succumbed to typhus, caused by body lice.

+++ Contrary to popular perceptions, Valley Forge had a high percentage of racial and ethnic diversity, since Washington’s army comprised individuals from all thirteen states. About thirty percent of Continental soldiers at Valley Forge did not speak English as their first language.

+++ By January 1778, nearly ten percent of Washington’s effective force consisted of African American troops.

+++ By Spring 1778, Wappinger warriors, a delegation of the Oneida and Tuscarora, and Colonel Joseph Louis Cook of the St. Regis Mohawk had all joined the troops at Valley Forge. Most served as scouts against British raiding parties in the area, and in May 1778, they fought under Lafayette at the Battle of Barren Hill. In oral histories, however, a prominent Oneida woman named Polly Cooper also brought “hundreds of bushels of white corn” to hungry troops, teaching them how to process it for safe consumption



How about this: We don't post how many irritating robocalls we get, or how many commercials we have to tolerate but post how many candidate forums you have gone to, how fun it was to join and knock and doors and the wonderfully sweet people who answered the phone when you were phoning for Democratic candidates and told you that they couldn't wait to vote for a Democrat.

It is 5 months and 4 days, a total of 157 days before the United States makes a U turn and heads away from the abyss of Trump and back towards the hope of Obama. Lets forget all of the inconvenience, negativity, doubt and despair and stay focus on the prize remembering the sacrifice at Valley Forge.

Three things from President Truman that every American should be reminded of every day under Trump

1) When Trump cries about all of the hell that is coming down on him from Avenatti, Mueller and Federal Law Enforcement Officers the American people should remember what Truman said when the Republicans cried that "he was giving them hell":






“I never did give them hell. I just told the truth, and they thought it was hell.”

― Harry Truman



2) Stop blaming President Obama, Secretary Clinton, Senator McCain, Republican Senators, Democratic Senators and professional football players, this trade war, this mess with Russia, increased violence against people of color, all of the bad things that are happening have a single source:




The buck stops here





3) When the war effort got underway and there was a big increase in military spending, Senator Truman who was a relatively unknown first term Senator didn't hold show hearings he got in his car and went to military bases where he saw both waste and profiteering. He didn't hide it, he brought a spotlight to it which could have embarrassed the Democratic President. President Roosevelt didn't try to out manoeuvre it or cover it up. He cooperated with it, enlarged it and eventually made Truman his Vice President.

Democrats don't investigate Republicans, they investigate problems. They seek the truth and want to build policy on what the facts are. If you want to find out what is really going on put the Democrats in charge




?

In late 1940, Truman traveled to various military bases. The waste and profiteering he saw led him to use his subcommittee chairmanship in the Committee on Military Affairs to start investigations into abuses while the nation prepared for war. A new special committee was set up under Truman to conduct a formal investigation; the Roosevelt administration supported this plan


The Children aren't "missing". They and their families are in hiding.

Edited to change the title and add this summation:

The news media is conflating two separate events. One is the disposition of 57,000 undocumented minors that came to the US to join their families that had legal Temporary Protection Status. Those 320,000 families are now living in hiding and aren't going to immigration court so the undocumented minors are listed as "missing" because they missed a court date. What makes it confusing is that Trump is now separating "accompanied" minors from their mothers to create a horror scenario so that they are too afraid to come.

Back to the original OP


I) A new policy by Trump has been implemented to create a draconian situation so that mothers coming with their children are separated from their children creating a frightening situation to deter mothers from coming up with their children.

This is a new and intolerable change from the past.

II) Over the past several years, mostly under the Obama administration, nearly 50,000 children were brought to the border and handed to Border Patrol Agents (they weren't caught but literally handed to the Agents) who were processed as Unaccompanied Minors. In 90% of the cases these children were "paroled" to relatives in the US who promised to bring the children to an immigration hearing.

These children were largely from Honduras and El Salvador and had relatives in the United States since about 1990s who along with migrants from Haiti were granted Temporary Protected Status (TPS). They were allowed to get Social Security cards and work legally in the United States. DHS law enforcement officers could not take action against people with TPS. I know this because my son in law had one and we breezed through Border Patrol Check Points without incident under President Obama.

Under President Obama the relatives would show up when they were supposed to for processing because they had a path to at least a temporary legal status.

Trump has (see below) ripped up the TSP of 320,000 who, in most cases, had lived here for 15-20 years and for the last 8 years had been allowed to stay here legally. If they left the US (as one unfortunate friend of mine did to go to Canada) they could not return. If they broke a law they could not stay. My son-in-law would not, for example, cross a deserted street at midnight if the light flashed "do not walk" even if all of the rest of the group had crossed and were waiting at the other side.

Trump has destroyed the lives of 320,000 families who had an even stronger claim than the DACA students.

Obviously with this level of fear many of the family members who became foster sponsors for the undocumented children are too frightened to go to an immigration court where not only the child will be seized but the rest of the family.

The Senate has now become aware that about 1500 undocumented minors (not the recent accompanied children who have been ripped from their families) who in 90% of the cases were living with relatives have not showed up for their court appointed hearing. Out of the base 7000 remaining cases there probably a few dozen runaways or others that have unfortunate ends like trafficking (and I have in laws in Thailand who were subjected to that fait so I don't discount it) BUT that is not the real story here.

The real story is that hundred of thousands of people from Haiti, Honduras and El Salvador who did everything the government asked are now losing their legal status and are living a life that is full of fear. Every siren, every uniform now causes the same fear as the Jews in the early 30's in Germany who were being rounded up and had to report their status and show their papers.

It is this fear over a much larger group that is causing relatives to "hide" these UM. Unfortunately the two stories are being conflated and the real story is not being understood even by reliable news agencies.

Here are some of the facts:

This is about Stephen Miller's policies but its not about unaccompanied minors not showing up its about 320,000 families losing their legal status and now they are afraid to come to immigration hearings.

To begin with the wave of tens of thousands of undocumented minors started under Obama and not Trump.
Most of the undocumented minors arrived under Obama not Trump and the procedures developed from that.

President Obama issued Temporary Protection Status for 320,000 individuals from Haiti, El Salvador and Honduras who arrived in the US about 20 years ago fleeing hurricane, earthquake and other natural disasters. The TPS allowed them to live here legally. Until Trump made this an issue the issue of these people staying here had broad bipartisan support.

In 5 years 47,000 undocumented minors were brought into the US



https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/07/02/the-surge-in-unaccompanied-children-from-central-america-a-humanitarian-crisis-at-our-border/

The difference lies in the number of children making their way from Central America to cross the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas. According to the Border Patrol, apprehension of unaccompanied children increased from 16,067 in FY 2011 to 24,481 in FY 2012 and 38,833 in FY 2013. During the first eight months of FY 2014, 47,017 children were apprehended, most of them from Honduras.



What do you do with 47,000 children? Try and reunite them with their family. So in the policy known as "catch and release" these children were sent to live with their relatives in 90% of the time. When no relative is available they are sent to live with licensed foster care parents.



The reality is that insufficient space exists to house the large number of apprehended children and the Immigration Courts are seriously overwhelmed by the number of removal proceedings. Consequently children wait on average 578 days before a Hearing. During that time, the child is placed with a parent or family member who must vouch that the child will appear in Court. The Migration Policy Institute anticipates that approximately 85-90 percent of children are placed with a parent or close relative.



When they say that they are "Missing" what they are really saying is that the children don't appear in court. They have no way to determine if the children are really "missing" as we understand it or with their relatives who don't want to go to an immigration court that could harm not only the minor but all of the relatives.



https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/hhs-official-says-agency-lost-track-of-nearly-1500-unaccompanied-minors/

Between October 2016 and December 2017, he said, the agency was unable to locate almost 1,500 out of the 7,635 minors that it attempted to reach — or about 19 percent. Over two dozen had run away, according to Wagner, who said the agency did not have the capacity to track them down.

. . .

Sponsors are meant to ensure that minors show up at their immigration hearings. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) pressed Wagner on why more than half of unaccompanied minors in 2017 did not show up to their immigration hearings.



Its the same employees and the same placement policies between the Obama and Trump administration. The only thing that has changed is the fear in these immigrant communities which creates a disincentive for people to come into the system.

The real issue is not that the children are missing but that entire communities are being pushed under ground because of fear that even though they are here legally that the Trump administration is going to break the word of the US government and take people who are here legally one day and illegal the next.

You will note that the Brookings Institute stated that most of the undocumented children were from Honduras.

There are about 60,000 people from Honduras who came here illegally but gained temporary protective status under Executive Order from President Obama. Tens of thousands from Haiti and El Salvador (including my son-in-law) also were given this legal umbrella to live and work here legally. Most of them have been here about 20 years.

Trump has ripped the legal basis for these people to be here and that is the reason that the children are not showing up for their hearings. Their parents (or other close relatives that are taking care of them) have lost their legal status and are afraid to go to an immigration court for the child. In any case the child is not going to get a permanent legal status to live here so there is little reason to go to an immigration court until there is a new President.

While losing 1500 children would be a great tragedy, that's not what is happening. What is really happening is that 320,000 law abiding families have lost their legal status and are now living underground and avoiding contact with immigration authorities.

Here is Trump taking away TPS (Temporary Protection Status) from various non white populations which is the real strategy of Miller:


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44013763

The Trump administration has announced the end of temporary protections for thousands of Honduran immigrants.

Up to 57,000 people could be forced to leave the US by 5 January 2020, when their temporary protected status (TPS) will be revoked.

Hondurans were granted this status after Hurricane Mitch hit the Central American country in 1998.





https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/08/us/salvadorans-tps-end.html

LOS ANGELES — Nearly 200,000 people from El Salvador who have been allowed to live in the United States for more than a decade must leave the country, government officials announced Monday. It is the Trump administration’s latest reversal of years of immigration policies and one of the most consequential to date.

Homeland security officials said that they were ending a humanitarian program, known as Temporary Protected Status, for Salvadorans who have been allowed to live and work legally in the United States since a pair of devastating earthquakes struck their country in 2001.






https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/20/us/haitians-temporary-status.html

The Trump administration is ending a humanitarian program that has allowed some 59,000 Haitians to live and work in the United States since an earthquake ravaged their country in 2010, Homeland Security officials said on Monday.

Haitians with what is known as Temporary Protected Status will be expected to leave the United States by July 2019 or face deportation.

The decision set off immediate dismay among Haitian communities in South Florida, New York and beyond, and was a signal to other foreigners with temporary protections that they, too, could soon be asked to leave.




This isn't about 1500 children that have "slipped through the cracks" its really about hundreds of thousands of families who came here decades ago and have established themselves as productive citizens and had legal protection. Trump has ripped that away and these families are living in fear and are too afraid to go to immigration court and risk losing their minor children being ripped from them.

The Trump administration has gone to war on 320,000 families from Honduras, El Salvador, and Haiti who were here legally and making a contribution to the country. Now entire communities have to take maximum evasive measures to avoid detection. It isn't a mystery what happened to the 1500 children who are almost entirely living with relatives, its a mystery why any of them show up to an Immigration Court at all.

Paul Ryan is the worst Speaker in history, worse than the child molester.

Subjugating a constitutional republic is not a one man show. There is a cast of dozens and Mueller will document dozens, many who will be going to jail.

One of the main actors is going to walk away without facing any legal recourse.

Paul Davis Ryan Jr. will likely escape any criminal prosecution because his crime is not a crime of commission but one of omission.

Trump is able to act today without impunity because Paul Ryan has surrendered one of the main functions of the House of Representatives; serving as a check to excesses of the executive branch. The Senate serves as a check on the excesses of the people's House but it is the House of Representatives that is to serve as the first and most important check against a lawless executive.

We are in a constitutional Twilight Zone because the only real hope (until elections bring in a new House of Representatives) of Trump being held accountable is by an independent investigation by his own Executive Branch. By definition it is going to exist on the edge of a precipice as the law breaker is the head executive of the branch that is investigating him.

That's not the way that the Founding Fathers envisioned taking on an executive who embraced emoluments and partied with sedition and treason to benefit personally from being President.

The position of Special Prosecutor isn't in the Constitution, the Speaker of the House is.

Ryan's failure to act against Nunes and the co-opted Republican leadership on the House Intelligence Committee as was well documented this week shows what happened when a carefully balanced system of checks and balances operates when one key part of the checks and balances opts to not do its job.

The criminal activity of Trump belongs to Trump and his crime family. This constitutional crises belongs solely to Paul Ryan who has brought more shame to the Speaker's office than Dennis Hastert's crimes because the entire country will have to suffer the results of his dereliction

That Republicans would consider making Speaker Pelosi's return to the Speaker an issue after the incumbency of Hastert (The criminal molester), Boehner (the alcoholic obstructionist and now a paid spokesman for the pot industry), and Ryan who actively destroyed the fabric of our Constitutional tapestry only shows they have gone from a regular diet of Kool Aid to mainlining it with a constant drip.

When faced with the a choice of continuing with corruption, Malaysia took the Mandela option.

Good update on the situation in Malaysia here:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-politics-anwar-malaysia/exclusive-malaysias-anwar-says-shattered-najib-called-him-twice-on-election-night-idUSKCN1II1U2

When faced with a fork in the road between continuing with a very corrupted status quo or taking a radical risk with a man who sat in a prison cell unjustly accused, Malaysia chose Mandela. I say that because the only parallel I can think of going from prison to Prime Minister by a demand of the people is Mandela. It is also a fundamental political change in the structure of the country.

This is not simply a change of party or coalition but a fundamental opening of the system. Following independence the Malays found themselves a minority of the population and owning only 20% of the assets of their own country. In order to secure their position in their own homeland they expelled Singapore from the Malay federation which enabled them create UMNO and a paternal state that brought in favourable conditions for the Malays to bring parity against the Chinese and Indian populations that dominated the cities.

This election shows that the Malays no longer feel pressured to follow an ethnically balkanized Malaysia but now are pursuing typical middle class values of fairness, anti corruption and transparency in government. It is the most astonishing political development in Asia in 3 decades.

Here are statements from Anwar in the article that also echo some of the tempering that you could hear in Mandela as a result of the suffering he had in prison.



UMNO’s race-based politics and patronage system has been slammed by its critics and blamed for the bulging civil service and weak institutions like the judiciary. “Probably he seems to be the right man...I am a bit more moderate and have a softer image,” Anwar said.

“Because of how I suffered, I always think how any decision would cause sufferings to those affected. So I’m a bit more considerate...and that may not be good in these times when we have to make sure the elements of the old regime do not resurface.”

. . .

“I have given that message. We don’t want UMNO 2.0.”



A great beginning to the Malaysian Ramadan Season.

Exclusive: Malaysia's Anwar says 'shattered' Najib called him twice on election night

Source: Reuters

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia’s ousted former premier Najib Razak was “totally shattered” the night he lost the general election and called his jailed rival Anwar Ibrahim twice for advice on what he should do, Anwar said on Thursday.

Najib was handed a shocking election loss last week which ended the dominance of the Barisan Nasional coalition that has ruled Malaysia for more than six decades.

BN’s defeat in the May 9 polls was attributed to rising anger over corruption and an unlikely alliance struck between 92-year-old Mahathir Mohamad and his former rival, Anwar, who got together to oust the scandal-tainted Najib.

Anwar, who was pardoned and released from his five-year jail term for sodomy on Wednesday, said he had received two calls from Najib.

“When he called on the night of the election, I advised him as a friend to concede and move on,” Anwar told Reuters in an interview at his home on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur.

Anwar said he asked Najib to come out with a statement quickly rather than delay and be perceived as trying to scuttle the process


Read more: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-politics-anwar-malaysia/exclusive-malaysias-anwar-says-shattered-najib-called-him-twice-on-election-night-idUSKCN1II1U2



The only parallel I can think of going from prison to Prime Minister by a demand of the people is Mandela.

This is not simply a change of party or coalition but a fundamental opening of the system. Following independence the Malays found themselves a minority of the population and owning only 20% of the assets of their own country. In order to secure their position in their own homeland they expelled Singapore from the Malay federation which enabled them create UMNO and a paternal state that brought in favourable conditions for the Malays to bring parity against the Chinese and Indian populations that dominated the cities.

This election shows that the Malays no longer feel pressured to follow an ethnically balkanized Malaysia but now are pursuing typical middle class values of fairness, anti corruption and transparency in government. It is the most astonishing political development in Asia in 3 decades.

Here are statements from Anwar in the article that also echo some of the tempering that you could hear in Mandela as a result of the suffering he had in prison.



UMNO’s race-based politics and patronage system has been slammed by its critics and blamed for the bulging civil service and weak institutions like the judiciary. “Probably he seems to be the right man...I am a bit more moderate and have a softer image,” Anwar said.

“Because of how I suffered, I always think how any decision would cause sufferings to those affected. So I’m a bit more considerate...and that may not be good in these times when we have to make sure the elements of the old regime do not resurface.”

. . .

“I have given that message. We don’t want UMNO 2.0.”

Happy Mother's Day for all mothers, including those lost and found whose


children are still on the other side of civility or maturity and were too self absorbed to make a call.

You may think that people don't know of your sacrifice but people do see it but out of deference to your privacy and dignity would prefer to not speak of it explicitly.

Thanks to the mothers who bring the neighborhood cast inside for some cookies or along for a trip.

Thanks to the women who are in blended families and extend their care to all.

Thanks to some of the greatest moms who happened to be men raising kids by themselves.

Thanks to the mom of us all, Mitochondrial Eve our first common ancestor, the woman whose DNA ever single one of us share and lived about 130,000 years ago.

Pull out of TPP and watch the jobs go overseas: First up Harley Davidson

In this timely thread Union Leaders complain about jobs moving from the US to Thailand.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210610419

Sounds like just another company moving to cut costs, but it isn't. It is an American company desperately trying to maintain its market now that the US will be out of the TPP.

Before leaving the TPP it was expected that the US factories would be able to compete and export HD bikes to Asia, now they will be made in Asia. Guess what? Even IF the Idiot in Chief does to back to TPP and even IF they let the US back in, those HD jobs will not be returning, they are gone and gone forever, the TPP was the last chance to save those kinds of jobs.

The best peer review article on the TPP estimated that by the year 2030 the TPP would add about $ 140 billion to American incomes. The reason is simple: we exchange better penetration of US jobs that are based on higher capital, higher skill, higher tech and less fungible to give TPP countries better access to the US for jobs that are lower capital, lower skill, lower tech and highly fungible. That study below but first what happened to Harley Davidson:



https://rideapart.com/articles/harleys-thailand-factory-result-pulling-tpp

Of course, selling American bikes in the APAC market—more specifically in Southeast Asia—comes with what Levatich has described as “unbelievable trade and tariff barriers". Because of the fee tacked on for importing a motorcycle from the US, it is cheaper for Harley to setup a factory in Thailand and build bikes there rather than build them here and send them there.

“We would rather not make the investment in that facility (Thailand), but that’s what’s necessary to access a very important market,” says Levatich. “It is a direct example of how trade policies could help this company, but we have to get on with our work to grow the business by any means possible, and that’s what we’re doing.”




On a macro scale the impact of TPP would have been significant to the US who would have been the biggest beneficiary:




https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/economic-effects-trans-pacific-partnership-new-estimates

The new estimates suggest that the TPP will increase annual real incomes in the United States by $131 billion, or 0.5 percent of GDP, and annual exports by $357 billion, or 9.1 percent of exports, over baseline projections by 2030, when the agreement is nearly fully implemented. Annual income gains by 2030 will be $492 billion for the world. While the United States will be the largest beneficiary of the TPP in absolute terms, the agreement will generate substantial gains for Japan, Malaysia, and Vietnam as well, and solid benefits for other members. The agreement will raise US wages but is not projected to change US employment levels; it will slightly increase "job churn" (movements of jobs between firms) and impose adjustment costs on some workers.



International trade is a highly complex organism and a lot of it is not ideological. The greatest sin of the populist nationalist, in this case Idiot in Chief, is to implement policies that fit on a bumper sticker but actually will have a counter affect to its intention.

US tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum were made with the enthusiastic embrace of steel and aluminum manufacturers and their unions and it made for one of Trump's best photo ops. Last time we tried this it cost us a net loss of over 100,000 jobs and that is why Cohen left as economic advisor. The premise that China is a major disrupter in steel and aluminum is not only not true its laughable.

The major exporter of steel and aluminum to the US is Canada which has higher structural costs (like taxes) than the US.



http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-canada-trump-tariffs-20180303-story.html

Canadians reacted with a mixture of anger, confusion and resignation this week to President Trump's promise to hit U.S. imports of steel and aluminum with hefty tariffs, upending decades of economic cooperation and integration.

"We're pretty consistently flabbergasted that Canada is at the top of the hit parade of trade villains" in Trump's eyes, said Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal.

Under the Trump policies announced Thursday, steel imported into the United States would be slapped with a 25% tariff and aluminum with a 10% tariff. The announcement sent shudders through world markets and prompted a global outcry, with European allies and others threatening retaliation.

Trump often has accused China of forcing U.S. steel and aluminum companies to fold by inundating the market with cheaper materials. But Canada is the largest exporter of steel and aluminum to the United States, supplying $7.2 billion of aluminum and $4.3 billion of steel to the United States last year.





Compare the announcement of the Idiot in Chief and the bad effects of leaving the TPP with the following article which is based on the US being in the TPP and having a really smart guy as President






https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietjet-boeing/vietnams-vietjet-to-buy-100-boeing-planes-for-11-3-billion-idUSKCN0YE0C1
The deal, signed during U.S. president Barack Obama’s visit to Vietnam, represents a coup for Boeing, as VietJet has only operated its European rival Airbus’ A320 airplanes since it began operations in December 2011.

The airline also signed a $3.04-billion deal for engines made by Pratt & Whitney, a unit of United Technologies, for the 63 Airbus planes of the 99 it ordered and 7 hired since 2013.



This is the difference between an intelligent leader and an idiot, the difference between long term policy and a bumper sticker slogan.

For every year Trump is in office it will take five years to recover, and that is based on the assumption that the American people want to change and do the work of reading, understanding and discussing actual policies.
Go to Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 27 Next »