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Member since: Tue Feb 27, 2018, 10:32 PM
Number of posts: 15,213

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Total Early Votes: 74,066,939 Mail Ballots: 48,607,931 In-Person Votes: 25,459,008


Trump tweet this morning


new polling technique asks how person thinks their social circle will vote

Why your friends could help predict the election
In addition to asking how panelists will vote, the Daybreak poll does something more. It also asks panelists to predict how their friends, family, and colleagues will vote.

This is a new method in public opinion polling that has yielded promising results. During the 2016 U.S. and 2017 French elections, the technique came closer to predicting the popular vote than traditional surveys which only asked respondents about themselves.

One reason for this survey’s success has to do with sample size. By asking about a voter’s social circle, researchers implicitly gain information on a larger, more diverse group of people, according to Mirta Galesic and Henrik Olsson from the Santa Fe Institute.

Thus far, the Daybreak social survey predicts a slightly closer race than the overall poll, though Biden still holds the lead.


Experts who study this method have also attributed its efficacy to the fact that respondents sometimes feel more comfortable speaking truthfully about others than they do about their own private opinions.

The "Shy Voter" theory holds that some Trump supporters might fear harassment or feel embarrassed about publicly declaring their voting intentions.

This survey method also reveals how many American social circles have sorted into opposing political camps. Democrats and Republicans alike predict their social circles will vote for each party’s nominee. "Perhaps more surprising," wrote Galesic and Olsson, "is that both Democrats and Republicans seem to know that they are surrounded by like-minded people."

Trailing in the polls, Trump is saying whatever he thinks might help him win reelection

Trailing in the polls, Trump is saying whatever he thinks might help him win reelection


So it’s pretty rich that Trump now claims that the media coverage about the worsening coronavirus outbreak in the United States is actually a “Fake News Media Conspiracy” — a.k.a. a hoax — and “the topic will totally change” after the election.

Not that it needs to be said, but the record-breaking number of new cases, with a current seven-day daily average of nearly 70,000, is not a fabrication. Nor is it, as Trump tweeted Monday, because “we TEST, TEST, TEST.” Public health officials say the rate of positive tests and hospitalizations are both increasing in many states.

But since he’s trailing in the polls to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, Trump is saying whatever he thinks might help him get reelected. That apparently includes minimizing a deadly virus that’s already killed more than 226,000 Americans and could claim another 200,000 lives before an effective vaccine is widely available.


If this seems like an odd strategy in the waning days of a campaign that has become a referendum on the Trump administration’s handling of the virus, it is. Instead of downplaying the pandemic, why not — I’m just spitballing here — try to reassure people who, like me, alternate between worried and panic-stricken. A little leadership would go a long way.

Then again, there’s little about the last days of Trump’s reelection campaign that feels rational. I mean, the guy who was hospitalized with COVID-19 is telling us it’s no big deal. And what about that bizarre campaign event he held at the White House on Monday night with newly confirmed Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett. What was that? How many of the 12 million unemployed Americans struggling to pay their rent or mortgage watched that and thought: “Never mind another stimulus check, thank goodness we have a ninth justice.”


Total Early Votes: 70,032,485 Mail Ballots: 46,874,461 In-Person Votes: 23,158,024


trump - we ALL prepay taxes. Difference is that you get all yours back sans $750


NYC Strand bookstore pleads for help - gets huge response. website crashes with orders

New Yorkers and book lovers around the country rushed to the rescue after the owner of the city's beloved Strand bookstore warned that it was facing the toughest times in its 93-year history. Owner Nancy Bass Wyden—granddaughter of the store's founder—tweeted Friday that sales were down 70% year-on-year and the business, the last survivor from the 48 original bookstores on Manhattan's "Book Row," was becoming "unsustainable," the Guardian reports.

"We need to mobilize the community to buy from us so we can keep our doors open until there is a vaccine," she wrote. Over the next two days, there were lineups stretching around the block and the store received so many online orders that its website crashed. One customer bought 197 books.

Wyden tells the Washington Post that the store received 25,000 online orders over the weekend. The normal total would have been around 600. "How can I not love my book community for helping like this?" she says. "I really don’t think that we’re just a bookstore. I think we’re a place of discovery and a community center. When I ask for help and they respond this fast, it’s so heartwarming." The American Booksellers Association says that with events like book signings canceled during the pandemic, independent bookstores are closing at the rate of more than one a week.

Strand customer Dan Bressner tells the New York Times that he decided to show up and support the store despite recent labor disputes. It's "an institution," he says. "My parents shopped here."


Total Early Votes: 69,257,810 Mail Ballots: 46,195,743 In-Person Votes: 23,062,067

Trump has victory ad ready to air.. a taunting one

Though Election Day is a week away, President Donald Trump’s campaign appears to have a victory ad ready to go on Facebook.

A video in the ad shows the president’s face superimposed on a sun, with a voiceover pulled from various sources. “It’s morning in America. Donald J. Trump is still president of the United States,” the video says. Flowers rise from the ground and open to faces, who scream, “NOOOO!” as the smiling president, now also a hummingbird, flits around.



Police brace for potential Election Day unrest in a year when 'everything is uncertain'

Police brace for potential Election Day unrest in a year when ‘everything is uncertain’

As campaign season heads into its fraught, final days, police departments across the country are bracing for Election Day, mobilizing officers as they prepare for the possibility of voter intimidation, unrest or violence.

These preparations include extensive planning exercises, efforts to monitor early-voting sites and concerns about how long any unrest could last if the election results are not immediately known or challenged in court.

While law enforcement agencies routinely plan for elections, officials say this year’s preparations are unusually extensive because of the sheer levels of anxiety and toxicity across the country — with fears that a modern American election could give way to potential violence.

“I don’t think we’ve seen ­anything like this in modern times,” said Andrew Walsh, a deputy chief with the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department.

Shouting matches, partisan rallies, guns at polling places: Tensions high at early-voting sites

“When you look at previous elections, there’s always been the concern when you have large crowds . . . we know [that] can be a target for someone who has an agenda,” Walsh, who runs the Las Vegas police’s homeland security division, said in an interview. The difference, he said, is the “magnitude” of the election and the weight people are attaching to it.


“We just don’t know how long this is going to take, or what this is going to look like, once this is over . . . and no matter who wins, somebody’s not going to be happy,” Walsh said.

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