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Amimnoch

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Breaux Bridge, Louisiana
Home country: United States
Current location: Houston, TX
Member since: Tue Jul 3, 2007, 07:34 AM
Number of posts: 4,051

Journal Archives

State of the battleground!

My stated support from the beginning was for the candidate that I believe to be most likely to win in 2020. I also state regularly that I'm putting no stock in national matchups since it's painfully obvious we cannot count on these as they reflect the popular vote more than the Electoral college vote. Below is a look at each of the battleground states, and how the most recent matchup polls in those states are looking.

The below is ordered by the number of EC votes given.

Florida - 29 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from June 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2629
Biden: +9 win
Warren: +4 win
Sanders: +6 win

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from July 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/oh/oh07252019_omwb36.pdf/
Biden: +8 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -1 loss

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019
https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win

The above are all of the most recent polls, that covered matchups between all 3 candidates and Trump at the RCP site.

Below is what the matchup results above would look like on the 270 to win map. If within the margin of error, color remains battleground, if a narrow win light blue, if a solid win (6 points or more) dark blue.

Joe Biden map



Elizabeth Warren map



Bernie Sanders map


Very pleased that when it does come down to the critical states (as of latest matchup polls) all 3 of our front running candidates have the ability to take on Cheetolini!

The PABUS

ROFL, goodbye "cheetolini" and hello "PABUS" - Pussy Ass Bitch of the United States.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/chrissy-teigen-donald-trump-president-pab_n_5d77023de4b0752102319b1e

President Donald Trumpís Sunday night attack on John Legend and Chrissy Teigen backfired when it led to an insulting new nickname for the president.
But there was just one problem with the scathing presidential put-down cooked up by Teigen: Itís likely too dirty for Twitter trends ― so the presidentís critics had to devise another way to get it onto the list.

Trump attacked Legend on Sunday night after the musician appeared on an MSNBC special about criminal justice reform. He also insulted model and cookbook author Teigen but without mentioning her name.

Instead, the president referred to her only as Legendís ďfilthy mouthed wife.Ē

Trump tagged Legend and NBCís Lester Holt, but not Teigen ― and she fired back by taunting him with a new nickname:


https://twitter.com/chrissyteigen/status/1170914148919590914

Much more good reading at the Huffpo link.

Never thought I'd be reduced to using a word like that on any president (or anyone for that matter).. even Republican ones. I don't think I've used that descriptor for anyone since high school, if then, but with all the foul things he and his surrogates throw at us, and since this is something that elicits reaction from them.. I'm okay.

Moscow Mitch calling a special session of the Senate.

Philosophical hypothetical question 1:

You are an elected representative for your congressional district. Before you is a bill to vote on. You know that passing this bill would not be in the best interests or benefit of your own constituency, but it is also would be widely popular in your district.

Voting yes on this bill would benefit you in getting re-elected, and make those who elected you happy, but you know it will impact them negatively.

Voting no on this bill may jeopardize your chances at reelection, and you know it's going to make for some very unpleasant town hall meetings, but you do know it's what's best for your district and the people you represent.

How do you vote?

Pray for Trump, Psalm 109:8 - Lord hear our prayer!

"May his days be few; may another take his place of leadership"- Psalm 109:8



(For disclosure, I saw this as a meme on Facebook this morning, and found it too funny not to share)

Fox News, Ann Coulter, and Karl Rove.. oh my.



So, all of a sudden, Fox has gone all in on BS. Coulter is okay with BS, and ole Rove is shilling for him as well.

I guess medicare for all is now on the tRumpublicon platform? Democratic Socialism is just fiiiiine. They can all get behind BS!!!


You want to know why they are all in for BS?

https://www.openprimaries.org/primaries_by_state
See all those orange states? Those are the states that have open primary elections. Most of which none of the voters even have to do party registration.

Cheetolini isn't going to have any serious primary challenge. This frees them up to select the candidate that they think they can do their best with and load the deck.

So you can either believe that Fox News really did have interest in giving Bernie a great platform, and a "fair and balanced" coverage from it, and that Ann Coulter "really" believes that Bernie wouldn't be that bad, and Karl Rove really thinks that Bernie is going to be the hard one to beat because he has such great position.. OR

They are giving their nod to their voters that can vote in Democratic Party Primaries on just which candidate they should be going and vote for on those primary dates.



Has everyone lost their collective minds??

1. Sexual harrassment did not happen by any definition.
2. Sexual assault did not happen by any definition.
3. Biden does have a well recorded history of being a contact person. This does not equate to either of the conditions laid out in 1 or 2, but it is an opening for persons receiving said affection to be uncomfortable, and the person whose personal space is invaded does have the right to be or not be uncomfortable as a result.
4. Anyone who has been through any kind of LCEC, or workplace harassment course can tell you, there are behaviors that are not acceptable period (wanton staring/leering, groping, cornering in a threatening manner, conditioning career advancement in return for personal attentions) which does not warrant response to be in violation.
5. there are conditions where it is incumbent upon the person who is made uncomfortable to make an oral declaration of discomfort, such as complimenting ones attire, placing hands upon a person in any way that is not overtly sexual in nature, or making a verbal or non-verbal request of an intimate nature (such as asking to go out for drinks, or dinner).
6. Biden made the PERFECT response of acknowledging the complaint against him, validating the feelings of the person making the complaint, and issuing heartfelt remorse that any behavior of his may have made a person feel discomfort.
7. It does NOT matter that the person stating feelings of violation has a history of wearing any kind of clothing, or appearance. He/she/they give NO consent to ANY behavior based on their dress, appearance, or history.
8. It does NOT matter if the person stating the feelings of violation has a history of accepting the contact or discourse with others. He/she/they have stated an issue of feeling violation for this incident. It matters. It deserves to be addressed.

I really wish more would respect the person(Ďs) making complaints, because not doing so now distinctly sends the message that it isnít okay to come forward with more serious infractions, and I also wish that more would recognize that this isnít the same level of infraction, the accused has made a statement that completely respects the accusors, and promises atonement, which is standard and generally accepted recompense for the level of infraction that was committed.

GET A GRIP PEOPLE!!!

Beto Kick off rally today 11:30 central time

Watching the crowds right now on the live stream:

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/03/29/beto-orourke-el-paso-texas-watch-live-here/

The Liberal case against Bernie

The Liberal case against Bernie

https://www.thenation.com/article/bernie-sanders-electability-eric-alterman/

Senator Bernie Sandersís presidential candidacy poses a conundrum for progressives. Not since 1936, when Franklin Roosevelt said that he ďwelcomedĒ the hatred of corporate interests, has a serious presidential candidate offered so aggressive a challenge to the conservative powers that be. At the same time, however, a dangerous lunatic is president of the United States, and Sanders, of all the major Democratic contenders, is the one who will make Donald Trumpís reelection most likely. Eight years of a Trump presidency could mean the end of meaningful democracy in the United States, along with many of the rights that women, minorities, immigrants, LGBTQ people, and others now take for granted.

Let me clarify: Iíve been a fan and supporter of Sanders ever since he was elected mayor of Burlington, Vermont, in 1981. I was honored to be asked to testify before him in Congress years ago, and I voted for him in the New York presidential primary in 2016. I did so, however, not because I imagined he might win the nomination, but because I hoped that a strong showing by Sanders would help wake up Hillary Clinton to the importance of addressing economic inequality, and also to honor his brave criticism of Israelís occupation of the West Bank.

I was wrong. Sanders turned so negative toward Clinton that it hurt her in the general election. Even though he campaigned for her after he lost the nomination, roughly 12 percent of Sandersís supporters switched to Trump, and enough of the rest supported Jill Steinís kamikaze candidacy that it helped tip key states to Trump.


My sentiments exactly. He was a toxic variable that played a crucial part in Cheetoliniís rise to power, and I suspected from beginning of this season, and completely reinforced with all of the attacks we are seeing from his surrogates that a repeat is in play.

This election is too important for his purity games.

Beto, Social Security, lies and smears.

So, let's address this latest desperate lie, slander, smear, and old dug up crap by our independent "allies".

1. Beto is rated 100% by the Alliance for Retired Americans. That doesn't come from someone who is for raising the age of SS, or increasing the cost.

2. Beto opposed the Republican led call for converting SS into personal retirement accounts, and privatizing.

2. Pretty telling that one camp has to dig back 7 years to an obscure campaign speech, that was given to address specific concerns of a small constituency, and is NOT at all reflective of what a Senator Beto, and especially a President Beto would look like.

3. Do not be fooled by this crap. A President Beto, or President Biden, or President Warren, or President Harris, or President Buttigieg, or President Inslee, or President Klobacher, or President Hickenlooper, etc.. NONE of them, as a Democratic Party President of the US is going to refuse to sign, or refuse to support ANY Democratic Party Senate or House legislation that pushes to protect Social Security, or expand Social Security. Any of our candidates as POTUS would likewise VETO any Republican congress bill that does weaken our Social Security system.. period. anyone who thinks otherwise is a damn fool. There is NO Democratic Party version of a potential congress that will pass any bill that raises the retirement age, or increases costs of SS (other than possibly raising the tax cap)

They gave you 7 years old information as a representative of a pretty red district, Here's 4 months ago from a red-going purple state:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=beto+o%27rourke+on+social+security&&view=detail&mid=AC23A092193BCA01FFA9AC23A092193BCA01FFA9&&FORM=VRDGAR

And coming up, I don't have a doubt in my mind, that as a national candidate, his stance and support will likewise be reinforced to support the needs and desires of a national, and not just Texas audience.

Beto has not had the benefit of being a muppet, up in the balcony section, watching and heckling all the real players, while being shored up from a small, homogenous, fully sympathetic constituency. So yes, some of his stances while running as a Representative of El Passo Texas house 76 disctrict aren't going to mesh well with a national message.

But, what's been implied from that 7 year old video.. that he won't support Social Security expansion and protections should we be lucky enough to get a full congress that will pass it, and put that bill on his desk?? Bullshit.. pure, unadulterated, and shameful bullshit.
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