Democratic Primaries

thesquanderer

(11,986 posts)

39. Three things...

Sun Feb 16, 2020, 04:56 PM

Feb 2020

1) a "hard cap of 25%" is unlikely to stay that way if it were to come down to two people (say, Sanders and Bloomberg)... that cap exists at least in part because of the sheer number of alternatives who can each peel off slightly different chunks of support.

2) Even 25% gets you 100% of the delegates if no one else hits 15%, so it's not necessarily a delegate-weak position

3) I would still expect him to get near total support from Dems if he were the one facing Trump oin November.

Sanders is not my first choice, but I would be completely comfortable with him as our nominee.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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45 replies

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No, radical policies won't drive election-winning turnout [View all] Gothmog Feb 2020 OP

But, we were told there'd be a revolution left-of-center2012 Feb 2020 #1

Again, Sanders is not far left. He is center left. Gravitycollapse Feb 2020 #2

Part of that is his fault. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #9

He isn't running in any other part of the world gollygee Feb 2020 #11

Could you explain how sanders magical voter revolution works in the real world? Gothmog Feb 2020 #13

Anyone who calls himself a Socialist is going to get labeled far left. It's not amazing how far UniteFightBack Feb 2020 #20

No, it is amazing. This country is a joke. John Fante Feb 2020 #27

If you're explaining you're losing.. Callado119 Feb 2020 #21

+1 that allows that fascist pig to control the narrative. Thomas Hurt Feb 2020 #29

Democratic socialist who praises communist Russia is ... ***NOT*** ... moderate in the USA uponit7771 Feb 2020 #42

The Iowa grass roots movement netted 1.8 voters per volunteer. George II Feb 2020 #3

And how does that compare to everyone else? Gravitycollapse Feb 2020 #4

Don't know, no other candidate boasts of their massive ground game. George II Feb 2020 #6

Maybe because it's worse? I think the stat is pretty meaningless Gravitycollapse Feb 2020 #8

Numbers empedocles Feb 2020 #5

It's an interesting perspective, that a Sanders candidacy could increase turnout for Trump... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #7

I disagree. Eko Feb 2020 #12

Look at 1972 Gothmog Feb 2020 #14

In 1972, Nixon's approval rating was 50-62% and he was not widely seen as... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #17

Nixon did not have as much great oppo on McGovern as trump has on a weak candidate like sanders Gothmog Feb 2020 #23

We've talked before how most of the Clinton oppo won't help Trump... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #24

I have seen a ton of videos on twitter that would be easy to turn into attack ads Gothmog Feb 2020 #25

Yes, that's come up before as well, and again my answer is... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #26

Sanders would kill down ballot candidates Gothmog Feb 2020 #30

Again, Florida, which I've already said I don't expect to win... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #32

So it is okay to lose Democratic House seats in Florida due to sanders? Gothmog Feb 2020 #33

Yes, because I think there's a good chance we'd lose them anyway... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #37

We will keep these seats if Biden or Bloomberg is the nominee in the real world Gothmog Feb 2020 #40

Biden and Bloomberg are not polling so much better than Sanders in Florida... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #45

No candidate in a swing district ran on sanders' platform Gothmog Feb 2020 #43

sanders appears to have a hard cap of 25% of the Democratic electorate Gothmog Feb 2020 #36

Three things... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #39

kr! Cha Feb 2020 #10

New Hampshire Turnout Wasn't Driven By Bernie's Base Gothmog Feb 2020 #15

It is beyond scary that anyone needs to be told this Awsi Dooger Feb 2020 #16

This message was self-deleted by its author Fresh_Start Feb 2020 #18

highly ideological candidates increase opposition turnout 3-8% more than their parties turnout Fresh_Start Feb 2020 #19

But here is the difference...The non Sanders supporters are not Nobody but Bernies but I feel at UniteFightBack Feb 2020 #22

Sigh John Fante Feb 2020 #28

Sanders would kill down ballot candidates Gothmog Feb 2020 #31

+1. Republicans will hang "socialism" around the neck of every Democrat. dalton99a Feb 2020 #34

Ruy Teixeira from Center for American Progress. DanTex Feb 2020 #35

Ruy Teixeira vs. Rachel Bitecofe is a landslide mismatch Awsi Dooger Feb 2020 #38

There will be no magical voter revolution Gothmog Feb 2020 #41

Whee is sanders' voter revolution?? Gothmog Feb 2020 #44