A tough road ahead in NY.

[paulthompson]

61. Mostly agree

I agree with most of that, SheilaT.

But I disagree with this part: "He MUST do a lot better than break even."

You even contradict yourself about it later. Maybe what you mean is, "It will be GREAT if he doest a lot better than break even." If he does that, then everything changes and he's the odds on favorite to win, IMHO.

If he just squeaks out a win, that'll be huge too, in terms of publicity and momentum.

As far as superdelegates go, even Nate Silver (who in my opinion clearly favors Clinton - he's said in the past that he leans politically conservative) has said that if Sanders wins a majority of the pledged delegates, the superdelegates will follow. Why? Because in order to win, he'll have to win nearly all of the remaining states and by good margins. He'll have much momentum, and he'll be doing so much better against whoever the Repulican is (due to his great popularity with independent voters), that it would be crazy to back Clinton at that point.

Also, a big question nobody is talking about is what about the 200 or so superdelegates who haven't committed yet? Maybe I'm hopefully optimistic, but I'd like to think that most of those will go for Sanders, because if they were pro-Clinton, why wouldn't they have committed yet? If that's the case, Clinton would go into the convention with 500 and Sanders with 200. He then would need to get 150 to switch to make it even (350 to 350). Then he'd win since he'd have more pledged delegates in this scenario.

I think getting 150 out of 500 to switch due to him being the pledged delegate winner isn't that hard. Heck, even Bill Clinton has said he'd vote Sanders if Sanders is the pledged delegate winner. Even if more of the currently uncommitted ones go for Clinton, that's still doable. People talk like he has to get all the superdelegates to switch.

100 supers switched from Clinton to Obama in 2008, and more would have done so except Clinton threw in the towel, so there was no need for them to turn "traitor" and piss Clinton off. (Everyone knows she's vindictive and keeps an enemies list.)