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thereismore

(13,326 posts)
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 06:12 PM Apr 2016

A tough road ahead in NY.


Dear Berners, I am looking at the demos from WI.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/05/us/elections/wisconsin-democratic-primary-exit-polls.html?_r=0

Our good Senator tied Clinton among Democrats 50-50, and won the State with a help of indies 71-28.

NY state has closed primaries with closed registration. I heard there were 500,000 new registrations this cycle, which is great.
However, NY has a much larger fraction of black voters than WI, and Bernie lost them 29-71 in WI.

I think we are realistically looking at a loss in NY unless Bernie pulls off a miracle. I hope HillBill goes full negative on Bernie as she is tone deaf and New Yorkers aren't. This could help Bernie. Also, the debate in NY can only help Bernie as she has nowhere to go but down. I wonder if the Panama trade deal will have an effect.

Bernie being an actual Brooklyn native as opposed to carpetbagger could help.

538 says Bernie needs to win NY with 54%. I think he would do wonderfully great with a 50.01% win, but I don't know how realistic that is. Someone talk me out of this please. With facts.

65 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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A tough road ahead in NY. (Original Post) thereismore Apr 2016 OP
She's basically screaming that "full negative" is up next. dchill Apr 2016 #1
I really hope she does that. If she kept her cool, she would win NY. If she freaks out, she can lose thereismore Apr 2016 #2
Shhh! dchill Apr 2016 #3
This Clinton 'negativity' should be part of Bernie's strategy Lodestar Apr 2016 #23
that is a great idea! hopemountain Apr 2016 #64
Bernie is the true New Yorker. RoccoR5955 Apr 2016 #4
Oh thank you for the soothing words!!! thereismore Apr 2016 #6
Message auto-removed Name removed Apr 2016 #32
I disagree with is the 29-71 black vote split in WI Red Oak Apr 2016 #5
Oh I see... really good to know! nt thereismore Apr 2016 #7
he won the american indian vote in WI Viva_La_Revolution Apr 2016 #8
He seems to do well beltanefauve Apr 2016 #19
It will be tough DeeDeeNY Apr 2016 #9
It will be very tough. Pick up the phone every day next week and phonebank. jillan Apr 2016 #10
I am starting to look into something here that others might want to investigate BernieforPres2016 Apr 2016 #11
Excellent post, please re-post separately as an OP. From recent events it seems that Hillary is thereismore Apr 2016 #13
This is a big topic. I need to think about how to organize it. BernieforPres2016 Apr 2016 #14
I am thinking he has a chance in NY, after all this. Go Bernie go! nt thereismore Apr 2016 #15
Thank you for your posts on Teachout. KoKo Apr 2016 #30
I like Teachout. She attended a small anti-fracking rally LiberalElite Apr 2016 #16
I wonder why she hasn't endorsed Bernie? dorkzilla Apr 2016 #18
She has! No link but it was on HuffPo. nt thereismore Apr 2016 #26
She did endorse Bernie, in a 2015 HuffPo column BernieforPres2016 Apr 2016 #31
NY stater here- Karma13612 Apr 2016 #24
Same here... (eom) mak3cats Apr 2016 #25
woohoo for teachout/wu! eom Karma13612 Apr 2016 #37
It will be closer than you think Rosa Luxemburg Apr 2016 #12
If you are in NY, please find your local office and help!!! riderinthestorm Apr 2016 #17
NY has more blacks than Wisconsin, but a fair amount less than Milwaukee, which Bernie almost won jfern Apr 2016 #20
Good point! Thank you. nt thereismore Apr 2016 #27
Some more reasons to be optimistic paulthompson Apr 2016 #21
This is truly awesome! Thank you for a detailed response thereismore Apr 2016 #28
The WI youth vote was hampered by the GOP's voter id laws bigbrother05 Apr 2016 #29
Thanks, Paul. Re: Early Voting... KoKo Apr 2016 #34
Indeed! paulthompson Apr 2016 #53
I would love to see numerous spontaneous 'flash mobs' all around the city, Lodestar Apr 2016 #22
NYC has over 1.3 million college students and the state overall magical thyme Apr 2016 #33
I hope that students registered in significant numbers. And who would register if not enthusiastic thereismore Apr 2016 #35
Cut and pasted from my OP of March 29... mak3cats Apr 2016 #36
And remember...NYC was where the HUGE anti-war protests took place Lodestar Apr 2016 #38
And the birth of Occupy! nt thereismore Apr 2016 #41
Yes yes!!! Lodestar Apr 2016 #42
We know Bernie was born and raised in Brooklyn as he mentioned this morning appalachiablue Apr 2016 #39
Yep, it'll all come out. there is time. Plus, Bernie pals around with the freaking Pope. That's BFD. thereismore Apr 2016 #40
Didn't know that! I wonder if there is a source link that could be Lodestar Apr 2016 #43
There are a couple (older) profile/bio pieces on Jane if you scroll through the BSG links. appalachiablue Apr 2016 #44
From a quick google search just now- with many more links/articles on Jane than when appalachiablue Apr 2016 #45
Hope you don't mind, I posted this info in GD-P with a link to your OP Lodestar Apr 2016 #46
That's fine, esp. since the nasty attacks started which I didn't realize until appalachiablue Apr 2016 #47
You know that shit breaks my heart werknotgoin2takeit Apr 2016 #50
NYS has a lot of fractivists. They will be voting for Bernie. Agony Apr 2016 #48
Something is bad in Hillary's internal polling. noamnety Apr 2016 #49
Oh, NICE! Yes I am sure she is watching that delegate lead shrink with some anxiety! I just heard thereismore Apr 2016 #51
Maybe her vote counters realized Bernie has a path to prevent her winning via elected delegates HereSince1628 Apr 2016 #65
My guess, based only on what I see here or out in the media, SheilaT Apr 2016 #52
Thank you, I think they are in an active defense mode. thereismore Apr 2016 #54
What exactly did she do for them when she SheilaT Apr 2016 #56
I think they told her they wanted to build something and she got excited and supported that. thereismore Apr 2016 #58
Almost paulthompson Apr 2016 #55
One more thing paulthompson Apr 2016 #57
I agree about Silver. He's pretty much irrelevant i a dynamically changing election. thereismore Apr 2016 #60
Yes, even a just barely loss would mean a lot of delegates for him, SheilaT Apr 2016 #59
Mostly agree paulthompson Apr 2016 #61
If he only gets 50 percent of the delegates going forward SheilaT Apr 2016 #62
Yep paulthompson Apr 2016 #63

dchill

(38,315 posts)
1. She's basically screaming that "full negative" is up next.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 06:16 PM
Apr 2016

I'm glad. This will be her undoing, not his. I believe they're truly desperate, especially considering what I'm seeing around here (DU.)

thereismore

(13,326 posts)
2. I really hope she does that. If she kept her cool, she would win NY. If she freaks out, she can lose
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 06:17 PM
Apr 2016

Lodestar

(2,388 posts)
23. This Clinton 'negativity' should be part of Bernie's strategy
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 04:05 AM
Apr 2016

His followers need to counteract it with 'joyful' events...flash mobs that pop up
everywhere (singing, dancing, etc.) that deliver the magic of that infamous
bird moment at Bernie's speech. People are more attracted to and motivated by fun,
positive, hopeful, inclusive, playful, humorous situations. Bernie needs to shine his light on
the darkness that reflects the kind of world they want to live in.
That's what people desperately need.

hopemountain

(3,919 posts)
64. that is a great idea!
Sat Apr 9, 2016, 03:40 AM
Apr 2016

here, in oregon, the sanders campaign is opening 3 offices for the primary and the general in portland, eugene, and medord. there were rallies today and scheduled for tomorrow.

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
4. Bernie is the true New Yorker.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 06:22 PM
Apr 2016

His accent, his mannerisms, his pragmatism are all traits of a New Yorker.
New Yorkers know this.
People in the eastern part of the state from about 60 miles north of NYC all the way up to Canada have heard of him. He has been on the Albany NPR affiliate on their local program were they interview local politicians every week. We have heard him for quite some time.

Personally, I have seen hundreds of Bernie bumper stickers, buttons, and yard signs. To date I have only seen one Clinton yard sign, and one Clinton bumper sticker. If this is any indication of what we have here in the Hudson Valley, we shall see Bernie win this one hands down.

I do understand from friends that there is a following in all of the larger cities like Rochester, Buffalo, Albany, Poughkeepsie, Kingston, Newburgh, Beacon, and NYC. It is essential that we get these Democrats out to vote.

I believe, from what I have seen, and what I have heard from others, that Bernie shall win NY, by a 10 to 20 points.

Nearly everyone I speak to, black, white, latino, asian, and others, of all ages, who have heard of Bernie, are for him. Yes, there are several Clinton supporters. Most of Clinton's support are from elected officials, and older folks who want a woman for president.

New Yorkers shall not be fooled into voting for a candidate who changes views, depending on her audience.

New Yorkers FEEL THE BERN!

Response to RoccoR5955 (Reply #4)

Red Oak

(697 posts)
5. I disagree with is the 29-71 black vote split in WI
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 06:23 PM
Apr 2016

Looking at the county of Milwaukee, the exit polls had a 29-71 split Bernie/Hillary for the black vote (and only the black vote, general POC were not polled), but those percentages, along with the demographics from the census, don't add up to Bernie's 48% of the vote in that county.

Either Bernie did much better than the exit polls indicate with the black vote in Milwaukee County or he did much, much better with other POC that were not polled or he really blew away Hillary with the white vote in Milwaukee County (over 62%) and that doesn't seem likely.

Something doesn't add up.

beltanefauve

(1,784 posts)
19. He seems to do well
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 11:54 PM
Apr 2016

In states with large Native American populations such as Oklahoma, Alaska and Minnesota.

jillan

(39,451 posts)
10. It will be very tough. Pick up the phone every day next week and phonebank.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 06:43 PM
Apr 2016

Even if you can only do one hour per day, do it.

Schedule it.

If we don't get behind Bernie, he will lose & the calls for him to drop out will be deafening.

If we help him and he wins, she will become Marco Rubio losing Florida.

Commit to help

BernieforPres2016

(3,017 posts)
11. I am starting to look into something here that others might want to investigate
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 07:09 PM
Apr 2016

There is a very accomplished law professor named Zephyr Teachout, a progressive whose central issue is getting the money out of politics. She has written a book on the history of money in politics in the U.S. that I just ordered. The title is "Corruption in America: From Benjamin Franklin's Snuff Box to Citizen's United.

Teachout ran against NY incumbent governor Andrew Cuomo in in the Democratic primary in 2014 with a tiny amount of money. Cuomo would not even acknowledge her as a challenger, but she won 36% of the vote in the primary. She won a number of counties in upstate NY and 42% of the vote in Manhattan. It was viewed as a humiliation to Cuomo that may have ruined his ambition for higher office. Cuomo is apparently very unpopular with progressives and Teachout tapped into that. Here's an article from John Cassidy in the New Yorker on that campaign, titled "The Meaning of Andrew Cuomo's Embarrassment".

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/cuomos-embarrassment

<The strong showing by Teachout and Wu was a victory for progressive voters who warmed to their message about tackling rising inequality, political corruption, and corporate abuses. It was also a rejection of Cuomo’s economic philosophy, which led him to introduce a series of tax cuts for the rich, at the same time that he cut the state budgets for education and social services. I’d be willing to wager that most Democrats who voted against Cuomo objected more to his policies than to his personality.

Teachout and Wu’s insurgent campaigns gave voice to this sentiment. Eschewing the etiquette of internal party discourse, Teachout accused Cuomo of governing as a Republican, acting as a shill for the big banks and other campaign contributors, and being part of a “corrupt old boys’ club” in Albany. Making full use of social media and appearances in more traditional media, she demonstrated that, even in this day and age, a candidate with a real message doesn’t necessarily need the support of the party apparatus, or the financial backing of big donors, to have an impact.

Cuomo wasn’t the only one to whom the rise of Teachout and Wu came as a surprise. Their insurgent campaigns also shocked what might be called the official progressive wing of the New York Democratic Party. The Working Families Party, an important player in liberal politics, had endorsed Cuomo. So had Mayor Bill de Blasio and Melissa Mark-Viverito, the City Council Speaker. Six days before the election, when it looked like Wu, a Columbia law professor (who has contributed articles to this site), had a chance of winning the race for lieutenant governor, de Blasio and Mark-Viverito both declared their backing for his opponent, Hochul.

Setting aside the conservative stances that Hochul—a former U.S. congresswoman representing Buffalo and Niagara Falls—has taken on Obamacare, gun control, and the treatment of undocumented aliens, de Blasio appeared with her outside City Hall and declared her “a true progressive.” He did radio ads and made robo-calls on Hochul’s behalf. And, according to some accounts, he went further than that. “Gov. Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio used threats and intimidation in recent days to block prominent Democrats from backing” Teachout and Wu, Fred Dicker, the New York Post ‘s veteran Albany columnist, reported. City Council members and state legislators were warned that, if they publicly endorsed Teachout and Wu, projects they support could be endangered, Dicker wrote.>

<The Democratic Party establishment survived. But Teachout and Wu both achieved more than seemed possible a couple of months ago. By thoroughly embarrassing Cuomo, New York Democrats didn’t merely deliver a blow to whatever national aspirations he may have. They signalled to other Democrats, Hillary Clinton included, that the political center of gravity has shifted, and that a significant segment of Democratic voters won’t suffer gladly a return to the timid, pro-corporate policies of the Clinton years, which Cuomo represents.>

So I am hoping that Bernie has the opportunity to tap into a movement like his that has already been going on in New York within the Democratic Party, similar to how the Scott Walker recall efforts had energized progressives in Wisconsin.

Zephyr Teachout is from Vermont, a summa cum laude graduate of Duke Law School who has clerked for a Court of Appeals judge. I figured she had to be in Bernie's camp and found via a quick search that she wrote a column endorsing him late last year. She actually met Bernie for the first time at a lunch in 1993 where Bernie talked about how damaging he thought NAFTA would prove to be. Here is a link to the column she wrote on why she was supporting Bernie:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zephyr-teachout/bernie-sanders-for-presid_b_8752058.html

And here is a link to a 1 hour 25 minute video of an interview with Teachout. I have only just started listening to it, but in the first couple of minutes she said that her primary audience for the book she wrote was Supreme Court Justices Anthony Kennedy and Antonin Scalia. She says her book laid out where she thinks they went wrong about money in politics from a legal reasoning standpoint.

&ebc=ANyPxKpxqIoaLvnXdensggcY9u_mPLHltmEy3FjukNnOHpirlxjJRPK2XYpMxZnW5LuvXXfh3AQ9si3sg5-V_J8dFwL4fO5JWg&nohtml5=False

One other thing to recall with regard to New York is the Occupy Wall Street movement. Bernie's April 13 rally is in Washington Square Park, where the Occupy movement started.

So Bernie isn't starting from scratch in New York. No wonder Hillary's campaign is going to DefCon 5. They're well aware of the humiliation of her unpopular pal Andrew Cuomo.

thereismore

(13,326 posts)
13. Excellent post, please re-post separately as an OP. From recent events it seems that Hillary is
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 08:03 PM
Apr 2016

willingly associating herself with Cuomo, which is a good thing for us! I heard about Teachout as a statistic but now I know her better as a person. I think the country is coming to a nexus where we claw back our government. Bernie is a product of that sentiment. The right leader for the right time! I hope he can pull off a 50.01% win. I'd pray if I weren't atheist.

On edit: Wu and Teachout were the Occupy of democratic politics. I think it is all culminating now in Sanders.

BernieforPres2016

(3,017 posts)
14. This is a big topic. I need to think about how to organize it.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 08:33 PM
Apr 2016

I have listened to about 50 minutes of the video of Teachout, which started with her doing a talk on her book and then became Q&A. A few takeaways that have stuck with me so far:

- Teachout's 2 issues that drive her in terms of politics are public financing of campaigns and breaking up large companies
- She talks a lot about the transactional nature of politics; she said after she had been running against Cuomo for a while (and as the article by Cassidy noted, he wouldn't acknowledge her existence publicly), Cuomo called a friend of hers and asked "What does she want?" He didn't seem to grasp the concept of somebody running out of something other than ambition and self interest.
- The guy facilitating the discussion said something (he used to work for Senator Bill Bradley) about Cuomo being socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Teachout said she didn't think Cuomo really had any political ideology. (Sounds like Hillary, strictly transactional.)
- Teachout says that there will be a Democratic state Senate in NY in 2016. She spoke of public financing of elections in NY as an inevitability given where voters are now, and that it could go from there to the rest of the country.

I share the concerns in your post about New York being a closed primary, but after thinking about the Occupy movement originating in NY and this information on the Teachout-Cuomo contest in 2014, I am encouraged that there is already a huge movement in NY that Bernie should tap into. The enthusiasm at the rally in the South Bronx suggested that as well.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
30. Thank you for your posts on Teachout.
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 10:02 AM
Apr 2016

I had been wondering about how the strong support that Teachout had in NY and the Occupy Movement's support might help Bernie in NY. I wasn't sure if Teachout had run as an Independent and therefore her supporters would be registered as such. But, that she ran as Dem challenger against Cuomo in the Primary is good news. The cut off date in October to register and that independents can't crossover made me think that it would be hard for Bernie to top Hillary. So, this is encouraging.

Hopefully she will appear with Bernie at some of the rallies he will be having.

LiberalElite

(14,691 posts)
16. I like Teachout. She attended a small anti-fracking rally
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 08:38 PM
Apr 2016

in NYC across from a hotel where Andy was speaking. She was the only pol there.

BernieforPres2016

(3,017 posts)
31. She did endorse Bernie, in a 2015 HuffPo column
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 10:06 AM
Apr 2016

There is a link to it in the long post of mine that also included the link to a video.

Karma13612

(4,527 posts)
24. NY stater here-
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 06:37 AM
Apr 2016

I was one of those who voted "Teachout/Wu".

It felt great and I was happily shocked that they did as well as they did.

Too bad I'm not in her congressional district otherwise I would be voting for her again this year.

 

riderinthestorm

(23,272 posts)
17. If you are in NY, please find your local office and help!!!
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 09:01 PM
Apr 2016

If you're shy, offer to data input from the canvassers. Or offer to be the driver for a canvassing team and the other person is the runner (door knocker ).

Bring food and snacks!

Deliver yard signs.

Help clean the office.

NOW is the time to ger involved! !!!

NY needs you! Bernie needs you!

jfern

(5,204 posts)
20. NY has more blacks than Wisconsin, but a fair amount less than Milwaukee, which Bernie almost won
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 11:58 PM
Apr 2016

A lot of the nonwhites in NY are Asians and Hispanics, which aren't too bad for him. He should win upstate by a fair amount, so he can win the state while losing downstate. The real question is how he does in NYC.

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
21. Some more reasons to be optimistic
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 03:47 AM
Apr 2016

1) New York is a closed primary, yes. Advantage Clinton. But a factor people don't usually realize is that it also doesn't allow early voting, and that's an advantage for Sanders. Basically, in state after state, people who voted early voted overwhelming for Clinton (sometimes 4 to 1 or more), because a) lots of senior citizens vote early and b) people are more pro-Clinton if they haven't heard much about Sanders yet with his big rallies and advertisements and so on.

So, for instance, in Florida, Clinton won by 36 points by those who made up their minds one week or more prior to election day, whereas Clinton only won by 13 points among those who made up their minds in the final week. But the problem was, over 80% voted early in Florida, so by the time he started campaigning there, with only one week to go, he was basically doomed. He knew that, so he didn't spend much time or money there.

Personally, I think that cancels out Clinton's closed primary advantge. Also, nearly all primaries have had early voting so far, but four out of five the next week don't have it either.

2) Sanders is doing a lot better lately with registered Democrats, and not just independents. To get 50% of Democrats in Wisconsin was very unusual for him. But it seems to be a national trend lately. There was a rolling poll trend today which showed him tied with Democrats for the first time.

3) There was another new poll today that had Sanders up two points nationwide. That poll also had him winning Hispanics by almost 2 to 1, which is really surprising. I don't think he's doing nearly as badly with Hispanics as people think. For instance, in Illinois, he got 50% of the Latino vote. The reason he lost Arizona was because of overwhelming early voting (over 80%) and voter suppression of election day voting. He actually won election day voting 60% to 40%, which means he won over a lot of Latinos once he got to campaign for a week there.

And everyone talks about the Black population in New York, but there's a big Hispanic population too, esp. Puerto Ricans. He could do well with them. About 16% of New Yorkers are Black and 15% Latino. If he's wins the Latino vote (still a big if) that could cancel out his losses with the Black vote.

4) There's a sizable Asian American vote too, about 7%, and Sanders does really well with them. So far, there haven't been exit polls to really measure that, but he won Hawaii 2 to 1, and only about 25% of people there are White and nearly all the rest are Asian American. (Native Hawaiians, which one might consider Asian American, don't actually number that much in Hawaii - it's mostly people descended from the Philippines and Japan).

Also, a recent California poll had Sanders actually do slightly better with the non-White vote than the White vote! That seems really surprising, exept that California has lots of Asian Americans and Latinos, but not many Blacks (only 7%). So that further suggests he's doing well with those two groups.

5) There are lots of Jews in New York state, about 7% also, and he does very well with them. Again, there's no real polling of this, but Sanders is Jewish, and the vast majority of Jews in the US are actually very liberal and not fans of Netanyahu and Israel's right wing policies. I'm sure he'll get a clear majority vote of the Jewish vote there.

The big scary factor for Sanders in NY supposedly is the large Black population, but the Jews plus Asian Americans equals 14%, and that's almost the same as the 16% of Blacks.

The more I think about it, the more I think he could actually win the state. The demographics actually favor him more compared to other big East Coast states that have cities with large Black populations, because New York City is almost uniquely diverse and has those Asian American and Jewish populations, much more than Philadelphia, Boston, Baltimore, and so on.

A key question is if New Yorkers feel any special affinity towards Clinton because she was a senator there. My guess is not so much, since she was a carpetbagger and didn't really put down roots. And Sanders also has a New York edge, with his accent and demeanor. His entire persona screams "New Yorker" in a way Clinton's doesn't.

One more thing. If we look at the exit polls in Wisconsin, he did better than ever before with women (actually beating Clinton by 1%) and older people (still losing,but nearly as much as usual). The problem there was that not many young people showed up to vote (and I don't know why), so he didn't crush her there. If young people vote in New York in big numbers, he could actually win by a good margin!

bigbrother05

(5,995 posts)
29. The WI youth vote was hampered by the GOP's voter id laws
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 09:41 AM
Apr 2016

Requiring special IDs and proof of college registration cut into his totals.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
34. Thanks, Paul. Re: Early Voting...
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 10:22 AM
Apr 2016

As you say:

) New York is a closed primary, yes. Advantage Clinton. But a factor people don't usually realize is that it also doesn't allow early voting, and that's an advantage for Sanders. Basically, in state after state, people who voted early voted overwhelming for Clinton (sometimes 4 to 1 or more), because a) lots of senior citizens vote early and b) people are more pro-Clinton if they haven't heard much about Sanders yet with his big rallies and advertisements and so on.

So, for instance, in Florida, Clinton won by 36 points by those who made up their minds one week or more prior to election day, whereas Clinton only won by 13 points among those who made up their minds in the final week. But the problem was, over 80% voted early in Florida, so by the time he started campaigning there, with only one week to go, he was basically doomed. He knew that, so he didn't spend much time or money there.


The two-week Early Voting hurt Bernie in NC because he was just catching on. Bernie did far better in NC than with any of the Southern Block voting states that Hillary won. If he'd just had that extra two weeks my sense was that he could have been closer. The two rallies he did in NC were after Early Voting had begun.


http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

Winner H. Clinton 54.6% 616,383 67
B. Sanders 40.8% 460,316 46
No Preference 3.3% 37,185
M. O'Malley 1.1% 12,007
R. De La Fuente 0.3% 3,350

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
53. Indeed!
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 10:42 PM
Apr 2016

I didn't mention North Carolina, but Sanders actually WON the state with election day voting. I think it was 52% to 48% or thereabouts. If there had been no early voting he still would have lost, because there are lots of senior citizens who vote early and most of them go for Clinton. regardless (Why?! I don't understand that), and he only had one week to campaign there. But still, the margin of victory would have been smaller.

The problem with the South is that Sanders didn't get a chance to seriously campaign there, due to a lack of time and money. Look at the results on the border between Texas and Oklahoma. I don't think there's any difference between someone living just across that line. But Sanders won EVERY COUNTY on the Oklahoma side and lost EVERY COUNTY on the Texas side! The difference is that he did make a serious effort in Oklahoma and he effectively made no effort at all in Texas (he spent a grand total of $30,000 there).

So I feel Sanders can win most anywhere if he can simply get his message out.

Lodestar

(2,388 posts)
22. I would love to see numerous spontaneous 'flash mobs' all around the city,
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 03:54 AM
Apr 2016

Last edited Thu Apr 7, 2016, 04:44 AM - Edit history (1)

for Bernie.

Breaking out in song, dance, cheers, quotes, etc. I would like to lift the mood
and encourage young people and old alike to want to be a part of this revolution.
It would also stand out as a big positive to Clinton's negative hammering on
Bernie and reveal a joyfulness such as the infamous bird delivered at his speech.



 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
33. NYC has over 1.3 million college students and the state overall
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 10:20 AM
Apr 2016

is loaded with them. SUNY has about half a million students not including continuing ed (which is another 1.1 million), CUNY has a half a million (including continuing ed).

NY is 2nd only to CA in number of degree-granting institutions, with 307 of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_New_York

Of course, a significant number of these students aren't US citizens, but I'll be the majority are.

Between 2008 and 2012 there were 13 million people eligible to vote in NYS. A couple million students = a significant percentage.
http://reinventalbany.org/2014/11/exactly-how-low-was-nys-voter-turnout/

And we know Bernie beats Hill by landslides with young people. If we GOTV, we can win it!

thereismore

(13,326 posts)
35. I hope that students registered in significant numbers. And who would register if not enthusiastic
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 11:24 AM
Apr 2016

Bernie supporters, right? I feel much better about NY after reading all these well reasoned responses.

mak3cats

(1,573 posts)
36. Cut and pasted from my OP of March 29...
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 11:48 AM
Apr 2016
...FWIW. My county committee endorsement meeting was last week (I'm a non-participating member currently - got burned out). From what I heard from an attendee, the "Party" says HRC "will" be the candidate, so she was endorsed. That's no big deal. The big deal is that my contact has been in the party leadership for over 15 years, and she supports Bernie. As do lots of other committee members, even if privately. The consensus is that HRC is bought and paid for, and/or a war monger. Neither trait gets any admiration around this part of the state except from the R's.

And I understand there isn't anyone on the county committee that's "in charge" of any campaign activities for HRC. It seems that her supporters are either just taking it for granted that she'll win or not willing to put any effort into getting her elected. But considering I have yet to see a single Hillary bumper sticker (except for one that said "Hillary for Prison 2016&quot or lawn sign, but there are lots of Bernie ones, thereismore could very well be right in saying that Hillary could be in for a nasty surprise in this state.


Add another: my niece is a senior in high school (but 18 already and registered to vote in the primary) and the majority of her classmates come from some of the wealthier areas of WNY. Other than a couple of Trump supporters, she said everyone she knows is supporting Bernie, and that politics is a constant topic of conversation.

Lodestar

(2,388 posts)
38. And remember...NYC was where the HUGE anti-war protests took place
Thu Apr 7, 2016, 07:26 PM
Apr 2016

during G. Bush's reign against the war with Iraq. Bernie needs to remind
those people of that.

appalachiablue

(41,047 posts)
39. We know Bernie was born and raised in Brooklyn as he mentioned this morning
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 12:34 PM
Apr 2016

during the NYC Town Hall on NBC with Matt Lauer. etc. Jane was in the enthused audience outside. I've wondered, esp. with the important upcoming NY Primary why it hasn't been mentioned more that JANE was also raised in Brooklyn. Or what am I missing? Every bit counts. She went south to college in TN I believe, and lived elsewhere when young but so did Bernie like his time in college in Chicago.

Just curious because Jane's roots are also in NY, Irish Catholic family raised in Brooklyn (minus an accent which is ok).

Lodestar

(2,388 posts)
43. Didn't know that! I wonder if there is a source link that could be
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 02:13 PM
Apr 2016

posted about this in the GD Primary forum? I'd like to learn more.

appalachiablue

(41,047 posts)
44. There are a couple (older) profile/bio pieces on Jane if you scroll through the BSG links.
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 02:23 PM
Apr 2016

I posted one a while ago, and will try to reply here when I have more time.

appalachiablue

(41,047 posts)
45. From a quick google search just now- with many more links/articles on Jane than when
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 02:39 PM
Apr 2016

I researched last summer and fall. Keep in mind that The Hill is an establishment DC paper pretty much, but the piece is fairly good. Re family members, many including the Clintons I believe work on candidate's campaigns and other projects.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/256523-jane-omeara-sanders-future-first-lady

An earlier OP found through the internal DU search bar that I posted May 26, 2015.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12808814

Lodestar

(2,388 posts)
46. Hope you don't mind, I posted this info in GD-P with a link to your OP
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 06:09 PM
Apr 2016

It seems the timing was good for that post. Another poster reported that there was
a big twitter campaign to disparage Jane. Geeesh!

Here's my post -
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511683890

appalachiablue

(41,047 posts)
47. That's fine, esp. since the nasty attacks started which I didn't realize until
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 06:37 PM
Apr 2016

a caller to Thom Hartmann mentioned it rising on twitter today. What ugly smear merchants...

werknotgoin2takeit

(172 posts)
50. You know that shit breaks my heart
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 07:51 PM
Apr 2016

Here is this decent, extraordinary woman in normal person disguise being abused so shamefully. I can see her keeping a brave face but that must hurt her very much. It's disgraceful.

Agony

(2,605 posts)
48. NYS has a lot of fractivists. They will be voting for Bernie.
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 06:40 PM
Apr 2016

on fracking…

Bernie - NO!!!
Hillary - We'll do it "safely"

 

noamnety

(20,234 posts)
49. Something is bad in Hillary's internal polling.
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 07:21 PM
Apr 2016

On MSNBC, I saw one of her defenders saying "no matter what happens in NY, Hillary's still winning."

thereismore

(13,326 posts)
51. Oh, NICE! Yes I am sure she is watching that delegate lead shrink with some anxiety! I just heard
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 08:37 PM
Apr 2016

on NPR that CA polling shows her with just a 6% lead. It was 11% a month ago. She is going to lose.

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
65. Maybe her vote counters realized Bernie has a path to prevent her winning via elected delegates
Sat Apr 9, 2016, 08:34 AM
Apr 2016

That was almost not discussed at all until after WI. Now it's a dark cloud rising on the horizon.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
52. My guess, based only on what I see here or out in the media,
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 10:26 PM
Apr 2016

is that Bernie is already polling quite well in NY, well enough that the Hillary campaign is in a complete and utter turmoil. If she really were headed to a win, even if only 50.1% of the vote, that would still pretty much cut off any realistic chance of him going into the convention with enough votes to challenge her.

But they are totally freaking out over everything, including his going to the Vatican in a week or so. And given how he has consistently outperformed his polling in almost every single state, and most noticeably in the last few weeks, he stands an excellent chance of winning decisively in NY.

If nothing else, once you get north of Westchester County, the state is very, very different. I know. I was born in Utica, lived there and then in a small town a bit north until I was 14. That was a very long time ago, and of course many things are changed after all these years, but what's probably not very changed is that the city and the rest of the state are very, very different from each other.

Bernie will resonate with a lot of people in the city because he is, after all, one of them. And he'll do well outside the city because of his message.

thereismore

(13,326 posts)
54. Thank you, I think they are in an active defense mode.
Fri Apr 8, 2016, 11:03 PM
Apr 2016

They know how long 10 days are. The Vatican announcement has them fuming at the mouth. Knowing full well she has nowhere to go but down, they are getting desperate.

I heard on NPR today how she visited Buffalo today to remind everybody (party officials mostly) how much she has done for them as Senator. Something about some research park or something. She is calling in all favors.

Now I think she is going to lose 52-48. That's my prediction.

thereismore

(13,326 posts)
58. I think they told her they wanted to build something and she got excited and supported that.
Sat Apr 9, 2016, 01:22 AM
Apr 2016

With money, I guess.

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
55. Almost
Sat Apr 9, 2016, 12:45 AM
Apr 2016

SheilaT,

I disagree with this part:

If she really were headed to a win, even if only 50.1% of the vote, that would still pretty much cut off any realistic chance of him going into the convention with enough votes to challenge her.


Not true. If you look at the guesstimates from the number-crunchers of how much Sanders needs to get from each state in order to get enough pledged delegates to win, they usually assume Sanders will lose New York by a bit. Something like 47% of the vote for him is typical. It's also assumed he loses a couple other states by larger amounts, like Maryland. But the thinking is that he makes up for it by bigger amounts elsewhere.

So really, 47% or better would be a "win" for Sanders according to a lot of people, when it comes to the delegate math. But I think he can win the state outright, if only by a little. Since New York has 247 delegates, the difference of a couple of points in the results could mean a lot of delegates.

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
57. One more thing
Sat Apr 9, 2016, 01:08 AM
Apr 2016

The OP is incorrect, Nate Silver doesn't say Sanders needs to win 54% of the vote in New York. Instead, he says Sanders needs to get 125 of NY's 247 delegates, which would mean around 50.5% of the vote.

See here:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

But here's where Silver is wrong about that and the rest of his guesstimates. He thinks that Sanders has it really tough in California, so he expects Sanders to get just 239 of 475 delegates in California. That's almost exactly 50% of the vote.

I think that's dead wrong. California is one of Sanders' best states coming up. For crying out loud, he's only down 47 to 41 in the latest poll, and he's got two full months to improve on that. The demographics there actually favor him a lot. Few Black voters (7% of the population) and lots of Asian American voters who like Sanders a lot (15%). True, there's lots of Latinos (30%), but the latest national poll with ethnic data says Sanders is winning Latinos two to one!

Because California is such a big state, if Sanders gets a 60 to 40 win there, or even in the high 50s, that suddenly makes the delegates he needs in all the other states much more reasonable, including New York. He could get a 100 delegate gain just from California! That's why other people say Sanders would still be okay with about 47% in New York.

Nate Silver doesn't know what he's talking about. But then again he's proven that over and over again this election.

thereismore

(13,326 posts)
60. I agree about Silver. He's pretty much irrelevant i a dynamically changing election.
Sat Apr 9, 2016, 01:26 AM
Apr 2016

You are right about the other numbers too.

CA may be a great state for Bernie.
 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
59. Yes, even a just barely loss would mean a lot of delegates for him,
Sat Apr 9, 2016, 01:22 AM
Apr 2016

but he's still some 200 delegates behind her. And break even in NY doesn't help him. So if he does not go into the convention with a simple majority of the pledged delegates, it will be extremely hard, that is to say impossible, to get the nomination. Flip it around. If you were a Hillary supporter, and Bernie caught up almost to you, but you still had a simple majority of the pledged delegates, wouldn't you think your candidate should be the nominee?

Sanders needs to win about 56% of the delegates from here on out. It is math, as the Hillary people keep on reminding us. And they are right; where they're wrong is in their assumption that he cannot possibly make up the current delegate deficit.

Tomorrow is the Wyoming caucus. There's been little or no polling there. I was able to find something on line that had Bernie up by all of 2 points. However, given how he's been consistently doing far better than his polling, I'm going to predict he'll do as well as he did in Wisconsin. Unfortunately, Wyoming has a whopping 18 delegates at stake. Even if he were to win them all, he's still behind close to 200 points.

New York is the second largest prize. He MUST do a lot better than break even. He needs to win, and win decisively. I suspect, given the recent hysteria from the Clinton campaign, he's already polling with her, or maybe even slightly ahead. If he wins NY strongly, with at least 55% -- still a bit less than he needs to catch up with her in the delegate count -- he's showing huge strength. More to the point, if she loses NY, especially if she loses it that decisively, she's toast. Her campaign is essentially over, even though I fully expect her to stay in through June 7. Which I'd want were I a Hillary supporter.

But if he wins NY, and wins it strongly, he finishes up the primary season moving ahead in every single race. By June 7, with California the huge prize, he'll do incredibly well there, if I'm right. And he will have a majority of the pledged delegates.

There have already been two or three of the supers who've switched from Hillary to Bernie. Most of her supposed huge lead in the supers comes from the fact that quite a few of them endorsed her back when no one thought Bernie would be any more than a footnote in this race. But their endorsements can always be changed. So far, in the somewhat brief history of super delegates, going back all the way to 1984, they have always gone (or most of them have) with the candidate with the most pledged delegates.

Here is something else we all must keep strongly in mind: It is highly unlikely, even in a tight two-candidate race, that somehow neither one will end up with a simple majority of pledged delegates. And that's the ball game.

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
61. Mostly agree
Sat Apr 9, 2016, 02:16 AM
Apr 2016

I agree with most of that, SheilaT.

But I disagree with this part: "He MUST do a lot better than break even."

You even contradict yourself about it later. Maybe what you mean is, "It will be GREAT if he doest a lot better than break even." If he does that, then everything changes and he's the odds on favorite to win, IMHO.

If he just squeaks out a win, that'll be huge too, in terms of publicity and momentum.

As far as superdelegates go, even Nate Silver (who in my opinion clearly favors Clinton - he's said in the past that he leans politically conservative) has said that if Sanders wins a majority of the pledged delegates, the superdelegates will follow. Why? Because in order to win, he'll have to win nearly all of the remaining states and by good margins. He'll have much momentum, and he'll be doing so much better against whoever the Repulican is (due to his great popularity with independent voters), that it would be crazy to back Clinton at that point.

Also, a big question nobody is talking about is what about the 200 or so superdelegates who haven't committed yet? Maybe I'm hopefully optimistic, but I'd like to think that most of those will go for Sanders, because if they were pro-Clinton, why wouldn't they have committed yet? If that's the case, Clinton would go into the convention with 500 and Sanders with 200. He then would need to get 150 to switch to make it even (350 to 350). Then he'd win since he'd have more pledged delegates in this scenario.

I think getting 150 out of 500 to switch due to him being the pledged delegate winner isn't that hard. Heck, even Bill Clinton has said he'd vote Sanders if Sanders is the pledged delegate winner. Even if more of the currently uncommitted ones go for Clinton, that's still doable. People talk like he has to get all the superdelegates to switch.

100 supers switched from Clinton to Obama in 2008, and more would have done so except Clinton threw in the towel, so there was no need for them to turn "traitor" and piss Clinton off. (Everyone knows she's vindictive and keeps an enemies list.)

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
62. If he only gets 50 percent of the delegates going forward
Sat Apr 9, 2016, 02:31 AM
Apr 2016

he'll go into the convention some 200 or so votes behind Hillary. Which means she'll get the nomination, as she should, quite frankly. Bernie needs to go into the nomination with more than 50% of the pledged delegates. That's the ONLY way the Super Delegates will start switching to him.

New York State really is the make it or break it point, even though the Hillarybots here have been saying since Iowa that each next primary or caucus (whether he won or lost) meant it was time for him to drop out.

I know that if he only wins NY by the narrowest of margins it will show her vulnerability, but he'll still be some 200 hundred delegates behind, and his path to overcoming that number gets narrower.

On the other hand, if he wins decisively, by which I'm somewhat arbitrarily setting at 55% to 45%, it will show she's simply no longer viable, and his wins will only gain strength as the rest of the primary season progresses.

And no matter how he performs in NY, Pennsylvania is the next crucial point. Already he is ahead of her in the polling, I believe. If he wins in NY, even by a small margin, it will make a difference. And if he has the kind of win I think will happen, he'll roar into PA, as well as CT, MD, RI, and DE, all of which also hold primaries that day.

The uncommitted Super Delegates absolutely matter. Especially if they start breaking to Bernie. I was reading something earlier today, sorry can't properly reference it, that talked about the 2008 campaign, in which Hillary likewise started out with a SD majority, but as time went on and as Obama kept on winning, starting shifting to him. Likewise, if Bernie starts winning, and winning decisively is the important thing, the SDs will flip to him. But if he doesn't move at least even to her in the pledged delegates, it won't matter.

I am cautiously optimistic that Bernie will pull it off.

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
63. Yep
Sat Apr 9, 2016, 03:06 AM
Apr 2016

Of course if he goes into the convention 200 pledged delegates behind or something like that, he's doomed. He really needs a lead in the pledged delegates to win the nomination.

I still disagree he has to win NY to win the pledged delegate race. Sure, that would be huge psychologically. But with a narrow loss, he's still very much in it. But if he loses NY by more than, say, 5%, then things look grim. In that case, only a major development, like a big break in the Clinton e-mail scandal, could help him.

And by the way, I'm working on a big timeline about that scandal right now. See here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280158157

I would safely say I know more about that than just about any private citizen right now, since my timeline is 45,000 words long and growing! And there are so many different ways to prosecute Clinton that one can hardly count them all.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Bernie Sanders»A tough road ahead in NY.