Factual talking points on the economy (UPDATED)

[progree]

73. EF 0. Economy facts - tons of numbers to refer to in message board wars. With official sources

The complete set of topics below is at http://www.democraticunderground.com/111622439

Almost all sections have where to find the official numbers, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Treasury.gov, or widely trusted non-partisan sources.

{#} EF 1. Job Loss and Creation - Payroll Jobs. At the bottom all post-WWII presidents with completed terms are compared

{#} EF 2. Unemployment Rate, Labor Force Participation Rate, Unemployment Insurance Claims

{#} EF 3. Recessions and Expansions - Official (NBER.org). Also GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

{#} EF 4. U.S. Stock Market as measured by the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Avg

{#} EF 5. National Debt. Budget Deficits and Surpluses

{#} EF 6. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Oil Prices

I use facts from these in mixed message boards and in comments on news articles such as at news.yahoo.com. Be aware that I have included a few statistics that are not so pleasant as far as Obama's record, ones that anyone debating with others should be aware of (forewarned is forearmed).

I am including EF 1. below as a sample. But please realize that the other sections -- EF 2 through EF 6 are at http://www.democraticunderground.com/111622439

{#}EF 1. Job Loss and Creation - Payroll Jobs At the bottom all post-WWII presidents with completed terms are compared

Factoids (official source follows):

# Under Obama there have been 30 straight months of private sector job growth (since February 2010), totaling 4.6 million jobs (thru August 2012 with July & August preliminary). Total job growth during this period is 4.1 million jobs ( 0.5 million government jobs were lost ).

# The economy Bush handed to Obama lost 4.3 million jobs during the last 10 months of the Bush administration. Furthermore, at the end of the Bush administration the rate of job losses was accelerating -- losing 2.28 million jobs just in his last 3 months -- an average of 760,000 lost jobs a month (the average of the last 3 months of the Bush presidency).

# 2.8 million payroll jobs have been created under Obama since June 2009 (that's when the recession ended according to the NBER (nber.org, the official arbiter of when the economic turning points occur), and only 5 months since Obama took office) (thru August 2012 with July & August preliminary) . Bush only created 1.1 million payroll jobs in his entire 8 year presidency

# 3.5 million private sector jobs were created under Obama since June 2009 (thru August 2012 with July & August preliminary) (contrast that to Bush destroying 0.7 million private sector jobs during his presidency)

# Bush's record: created 1.1 million payroll jobs - by creating 1.8 million government jobs and destroying 0.7 million private sector jobs. ( the actual numbers are, in thousands: 1,080, 1,753, 673 ). Yes, it is ironic that a supposed "small government conservative" ended up creating government jobs and destroying private sector jobs.

If someone says it is cherry-picking to compare Obama's last 30 months to Bush's entire presidency, then here are 3 comparable comparisons:

(1.) Comparing the last 30 months of Bush and Obama (so far, thru August 2012): Bush lost 2.6 million jobs, while Obama gained 4.1 million jobs.

(2.) Comparing the comparable 30 months of Bush and Obama's first term (3/1/02 thru 8/31/04 for Bush, 3/1/10 thru 8/31/12 for Obama): Bush gained 1.2 million jobs, while Obama gained 4.1 million jobs.

(3.) Comparing the first 43 months of Bush and Obama (from the beginning of each's first term through August 2004 (for Bush) and through August 2012 (for Obama)): Bush lost 856,000 jobs, while Obama lost 261,000 jobs.

(#.) And then there is this - Romney justifying his poor job creation record at the 3 1/2 year point of his administration as Massachusetts Governor -- by blaming the economy he inherited from his predecessor for the fact that his (Romney's) job numbers kept falling during the first 11 months of his administration -- and touting the number of jobs created (50,000) after his job numbers finally stopped falling -- http://www.democraticunderground.com/125198174

However, that 50,000 post-turnaround job creation record was a poor showing on a per-capita basis compared to the national average at the same time period, or the Obama record during the similar post-turnaround job-recovering period of the Obama administration. And consider that during Romney's entire 4-year term as governor, Massachusetts was 47th in job creation (in percentage increase terms) -- yes, only 3 states had a worse job-creation record.

.-------------------------------------------.

# The Clinton economy created 22.7 million payroll jobs of which 20.8 million were in the private sector

# If some rightie claims that Obama increased the federal workforce (as if that was bad), well that is true: Obama increased the federal workforce by 143,000, or 5.1%. But note that Romney as governor increased the number of Massachusetts state employees by 5.5%. Source: "Government Job Loss: President Obama’s Catch 22", ABC News, 6/6/12 http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/government-jobs-loss-president-obamas-catch-22/

Job Creation of record of post-WWII Presidents With Completed Terms, Average Annual % Increases :

(Sorted from best to worst by average annual percentage increase in jobs. Republicans in red, Democrats in blue. Notice that -- with the tiny exception (0.02% difference) of Nixon to Kennedy -- the worst Democrat has a better record than the best Republican)

[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color= ] Average Average [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color= ] number of Jobs at Annual [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color= ] Jobs start of Percentage[/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color= ] Created Term Increase [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color= ] President Per Month Millions In Jobs [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color= ] ========= ========= ======== ======= [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color=blue] Johnson 196,500 57.3 4.12% [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color=blue] Carter 215,396 80.7 3.20% [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color=blue] Truman 93,570 41.4 2.71% [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color=blue] Clinton 236,875 109.7 2.59% [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color=red ] Nixon 137,030 69.4 2.37% [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color=blue] Kennedy 105,059 53.7 2.35% [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color=red ] Reagan 167,729 91.0 2.21% [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color=red ] Ford 71,483 78.6 1.09% [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color=red ] Eisenhower 36,854 50.1 0.88% [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color=red ] G.H. Bush 54,021 107.1 0.61% [/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"][font color=red ] G.W. Bush 11,406 132.5 0.10% [/font]


Official sources of information for the above:

# Payroll Jobs: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
# Monthly change of above: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
# . . Hint: to see both of the above two together on the same page, go to http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001 and click on the "More Formatting Options" link in the upper right and check the "Original Data Value" and the "1-Month Net Change" checkboxes and click the "Retrieve Data" button halfway down the page on the left
# Private Sector Payroll Employment: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
# Monthly change of above: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
# . . Hint: to see both of the above two together on the same page, go to http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
and click on the "More Formatting Options" link in the upper right and check the "Original Data Value" and the "1-Month Net Change" checkboxes and click the "Retrieve Data" button halfway down the page on the left

This one compares all post-WWII presidents on a term by term basis, with and without a 8 month lag:

"The monthly statistics are quoted from January, as U.S. presidents take office at the end of that month, and from September (bold), as this is the last month of the federal fiscal year."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_created_during_U.S._presidential_terms

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[font color=blue]For topics EF 2 through EF 6 please see: http://www.democraticunderground.com/111622439[/font]