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NickB79

(19,236 posts)

9. That's not a downward revision, it's an upward revision

Reply to logme (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2020, 09:18 PM

Apr 2020

The 93,000 dead are for the FIRST wave, projected to go into early summer. The second wave is expected to hit in the fall into the winter.

The 100,000-240,000 estimate is for the next 12 months, until we get a vaccine rolled out. If they're now saying 93,000 in the first wave, that blows the lower estimate out of the water.

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18 replies

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White House advisor says another coronavirus epidemic like NYC could change US mortality rate [View all] logme Apr 2020 OP

Trump wants the estimates high so that he can "win" when actual results come in lower. nature-lover Apr 2020 #1

+1 n/t Pobeka Apr 2020 #3

This message was self-deleted by its author elocs Apr 2020 #4

A month and a half ago he said it would be 15 and soon zero. n/t OnlinePoker Apr 2020 #8

I don't believe a word she says bucolic_frolic Apr 2020 #2

Most intelligent people don't either DENVERPOPS Apr 2020 #10

I have a post I wrote in my DU Journal March 27 reporting projections of 40 to 160 K. So I don't see Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #5

It did in 1918-1920. roamer65 Apr 2020 #6

That Chicago and Los Angeles haven't tipped toward NYC number is, I think, a good sign greenjar_01 Apr 2020 #7

Just hang tight DENVERPOPS Apr 2020 #11

Florida should be a good state to study, to predict ... JustABozoOnThisBus Apr 2020 #13

if it dies back in the heat we will know something scarytomcat Apr 2020 #15

That's not a downward revision, it's an upward revision NickB79 Apr 2020 #9

That's total deaths DeminPennswoods Apr 2020 #12

We don't even see zero deaths with flu in the summer NickB79 Apr 2020 #16

BS "Model" modrepub Apr 2020 #14

Agree with your point about the lack of transparency DeminPennswoods Apr 2020 #17

White House/DC are not sources I trust Marthe48 Apr 2020 #18