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Sat Apr 4, 2020, 06:08 PM

White House advisor says another coronavirus epidemic like NYC could change US mortality rate

Source: cnbc

Another big coronavirus outbreak like the one New York City is bracing for could “dramatically change” the death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S., White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said Friday.

White House officials earlier this week projected between 100,000 and 240,000 people will die from the coronavirus in the U.S. Birx said the mortality models are updated every night to take into account new data, which generally include how the disease is progressing in other countries, social distancing restrictions imposed by states and the rise in new infections.

The estimates currently project between 40,000 and 178,000 deaths, according to the data cited by Birx, who added that the average number of deaths is expected to be around 93,000.

“All of that can be changed by our behaviors, and all of that can be changed in a different way if we don’t follow those behaviors,” Birx said.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/white-house-advisor-says-another-coronavirus-epidemic-like-nyc-could-change-us-mortality-rate.html



That is the second downward revision I heard about about, over the last couple of day ( along with the IHME at University of Washington numbers ). I am wondering what kind of data are fueling those more optimistic projections.

Nb: IHME model for the total death toll has been rather accurate for the first days of April : https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections it projects a total of 93000 death during this first wave.

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Reply White House advisor says another coronavirus epidemic like NYC could change US mortality rate (Original post)
logme Apr 4 OP
nature-lover Apr 4 #1
Pobeka Apr 4 #3
elocs Apr 4 #4
OnlinePoker Apr 4 #8
bucolic_frolic Apr 4 #2
DENVERPOPS Apr 5 #10
Bernardo de La Paz Apr 4 #5
roamer65 Apr 4 #6
greenjar_01 Apr 4 #7
DENVERPOPS Apr 5 #11
JustABozoOnThisBus Apr 5 #13
scarytomcat Apr 5 #15
NickB79 Apr 4 #9
DeminPennswoods Apr 5 #12
NickB79 Apr 5 #16
modrepub Apr 5 #14
DeminPennswoods Apr 5 #17
Marthe48 Apr 5 #18

Response to logme (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2020, 06:14 PM

1. Trump wants the estimates high so that he can "win" when actual results come in lower.

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Response to nature-lover (Reply #1)

Sat Apr 4, 2020, 06:29 PM

3. +1 n/t

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Response to nature-lover (Reply #1)


Response to elocs (Reply #4)

Sat Apr 4, 2020, 09:12 PM

8. A month and a half ago he said it would be 15 and soon zero. n/t

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Response to logme (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2020, 06:19 PM

2. I don't believe a word she says

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #2)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 04:39 AM

10. Most intelligent people don't either

She wants the notoriety of being on that stage for the worshiping she gets from all her evangelical crowd.

She knows the only way to stay on that stage is to be in lockstep with lardass's ever changing bullshit claims......so, she will do anything and say anything to remain in his good graces. She must have something he desperately wants, otherwise he would replace her with a twenty something with a major in plastic surgery.....

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Response to logme (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2020, 06:39 PM

5. I have a post I wrote in my DU Journal March 27 reporting projections of 40 to 160 K. So I don't see


So I don't see this as a lot of revisionism. I think it is more a case of tuning.

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Response to logme (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2020, 09:05 PM

6. It did in 1918-1920.

Much lower.

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Response to logme (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2020, 09:11 PM

7. That Chicago and Los Angeles haven't tipped toward NYC number is, I think, a good sign

Relatively early shut downs with relatively compliant populations.

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Response to greenjar_01 (Reply #7)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 04:41 AM

11. Just hang tight

for Florida. That is the state the qualified scientists are looking at, more than any other......

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Response to DENVERPOPS (Reply #11)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 05:51 AM

13. Florida should be a good state to study, to predict ...

... how the virus will spread as the weather warms in the rest of the country.

The warm weather may attack the virus. And, the warm weather may cause more people to get out of the house and mingle.

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Response to JustABozoOnThisBus (Reply #13)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 09:54 AM

15. if it dies back in the heat we will know something

but when was it cold, it is never really gets cold in Fl. I see no slow down yet.

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Response to logme (Original post)

Sat Apr 4, 2020, 09:18 PM

9. That's not a downward revision, it's an upward revision

The 93,000 dead are for the FIRST wave, projected to go into early summer. The second wave is expected to hit in the fall into the winter.

The 100,000-240,000 estimate is for the next 12 months, until we get a vaccine rolled out. If they're now saying 93,000 in the first wave, that blows the lower estimate out of the water.

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Response to NickB79 (Reply #9)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 05:25 AM

12. That's total deaths

The model linked in the OP is at 0 by July.

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Response to DeminPennswoods (Reply #12)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 11:05 AM

16. We don't even see zero deaths with flu in the summer

The Chinese, with months of additional infections and a massive nationwide lockdown, still aren't at zero deaths.

No one in their right mind would assume that a novel disease with no vaccine available could be brought to a zero death toll so quickly. It has become endemic, like a cold or flu. It will smolder for the summer, killing a few here and there, and become resurgent in the fall. Our hope is that testing and treatment options have improved by then.

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Response to logme (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 08:13 AM

14. BS "Model"

No one seems to know the assumptions and workings of whatever the white house is using to generate the death projections. Acknowledging and legitimizing any numbers from the white house without them revealing how they came up with the numbers is only feeding into their hype. NO ONE KNOWS WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW THIS IS GOING TO END!


From: https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2020/04/03/experts-and-trumps-own-advisers-doubt-white-houses-coronavirus-death-estimate-of-up-to-240000/


...[T]he experts said they don't challenge the numbers' validity but said they don't know how the White House arrived at them....

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Response to modrepub (Reply #14)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 11:54 AM

17. Agree with your point about the lack of transparency

of data inputs on most, if not all, of the models.

But, iirc, the 250,000 deaths number came from a study by the Imperial College of London that was out a few weeks ago. Again, I seem to recall the study's authors amended that number downward given the social distancing initiative after the initial projection.

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Response to logme (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:00 PM

18. White House/DC are not sources I trust

traitor's people are too busy making pap for the cult to swallow.

I go to WHO for updates.

I am personally terribly worried that the virus won't slow down or stop any time soon. I am on the phone talking to my friends and relatives. There is a lot of concern. Not surprisingly, it is concern for the already high death toll, the loss of jobs, the people who are going to work at essential jobs, the unsung heroes. There is outright grief for our country, the ideal. My daughter broke down when I mentioned jihad jarod commandeering supplies meant for certain states, or other countries. She said we are not like that.



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