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Showing Original Post only (View all)Charlie Cook: Question seems to be whether we'll see a "skinny" Biden win or a landslide [View all]
Link to tweet
Don't expect a contested election
The cone of uncertainty has narrowed considerably. Now, the question seems to be whether we'll see a "skinny" Biden win or a landslide.
Joe Bidens path to 270 electoral votes seems pretty straightforward: Hold all 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that Hillary Clinton carried four years ago, which total 232 electoral votes, just 38 short of the majority threshold of 270. Then win each of the three states that Clinton lost by eight-tenths of a point or less: Michigan (0.2 percentage points) Pennsylvania (0.7), and Wisconsin (0.8). That gives him 278 electoral votes, eight more than needed. Biden will likely also carry two congressional districts that eluded Clinton in 2016, Nebraskas 2nd District and Maines 2nd, giving him 280 electoral votes. That would represent a skinny Biden win.
A big Biden win would bring in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, and might also include one or two states from the next tier, mostly likely Georgia or Iowa, although dont count out Ohio or Texas. Generally speaking, Trump is underperforming his 2016 pace by 3 to 8 points, depending upon the state or district.
The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Bidens lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But thats a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.
I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Centers mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago.
read more: https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/711037?unlock=SRT6SBVCJHPBFJTS
Charlie's still a DUer: https://upload.democraticunderground.com/?com=profile&uid=347244
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Charlie Cook: Question seems to be whether we'll see a "skinny" Biden win or a landslide [View all]
bigtree
Oct 2020
OP
Me too! This is a great read from a trustworthy source, and very reassuring. nt
crickets
Oct 2020
#14
I like the poll aggregator for the Economist, but Charlie Cook is the best!!
Thekaspervote
Oct 2020
#12
he popped in on a Malaise thread in 2018 asking about his significant weight loss
bigtree
Oct 2020
#20
This is True, It's Right in Front of Our Noses So We're Really Not Seeing It but
Skraxx
Oct 2020
#21
Fantastic! I don't ever recall such certainty in a projection except perhaps 72 or 84
Fiendish Thingy
Oct 2020
#22