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Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:04 PM

Charlie Cook: Question seems to be whether we'll see a "skinny" Biden win or a landslide




Don't expect a contested election
The cone of uncertainty has narrowed considerably. Now, the question seems to be whether we'll see a "skinny" Biden win or a landslide.

Joe Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes seems pretty straightforward: Hold all 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that Hillary Clinton carried four years ago, which total 232 electoral votes, just 38 short of the majority threshold of 270. Then win each of the three states that Clinton lost by eight-tenths of a point or less: Michigan (0.2 percentage points) Pennsylvania (0.7), and Wisconsin (0.8). That gives him 278 electoral votes, eight more than needed. Biden will likely also carry two congressional districts that eluded Clinton in 2016, Nebraska’s 2nd District and Maine’s 2nd, giving him 280 electoral votes. That would represent a “skinny” Biden win.

A big Biden win would bring in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, and might also include one or two states from the next tier, mostly likely Georgia or Iowa, although don’t count out Ohio or Texas. Generally speaking, Trump is underperforming his 2016 pace by 3 to 8 points, depending upon the state or district.

The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Biden’s lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But that’s a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.

I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Center’s mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago.

read more: https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/711037?unlock=SRT6SBVCJHPBFJTS




Charlie's still a DUer: https://upload.democraticunderground.com/?com=profile&uid=347244

29 replies, 3988 views

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Arrow 29 replies Author Time Post
Reply Charlie Cook: Question seems to be whether we'll see a "skinny" Biden win or a landslide (Original post)
bigtree Oct 29 OP
Dem2 Oct 29 #1
underpants Oct 29 #5
crickets Oct 29 #14
MustLoveBeagles Oct 29 #2
jimlup Oct 29 #3
bigtree Oct 29 #4
jimlup Oct 29 #7
certainot Oct 29 #23
elleng Oct 29 #6
Jamesyu Oct 29 #8
NewsCenter28 Oct 29 #9
Dem2 Oct 29 #10
AmericanCanuck Oct 29 #11
Thekaspervote Oct 29 #12
blue neen Oct 29 #13
JoeOtterbein Oct 29 #15
FakeNoose Oct 29 #16
mahina Oct 29 #18
Nevilledog Oct 29 #19
BlueWavePsych Oct 30 #28
mahina Oct 29 #17
bigtree Oct 29 #20
BannonsLiver Oct 29 #26
Skraxx Oct 29 #21
Fiendish Thingy Oct 29 #22
BadgerMom Oct 29 #24
BadgerMom Oct 29 #25
Alhena Oct 29 #27
bigtree Oct 30 #29

Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:09 PM

1. :)

I enjoyed reading a positive post in a sea of negativity.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:12 PM

5. Yes this is by far the most optimistic thing I've read in a while.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:35 PM

14. Me too! This is a great read from a trustworthy source, and very reassuring. nt

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:10 PM

2. K&R

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:11 PM

3. Don't let our guard down

If it is a skinny result tRump will try to steal it.

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Response to jimlup (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:12 PM

4. no shit.

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Response to bigtree (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:13 PM

7. Good work Sherlock /nt

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Response to jimlup (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:26 PM

23. democrat's guard is ALWAYS down. ignoring talk radio is the biggest

political mistake in history

it is just really stupid that city dwellers have no clue they're getting their asses kicked by a well-coordinated propaganda op like Voice of America turned back on us - Voice of Putin now...

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:13 PM

6. THANKS!

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:27 PM

8. RCP highly rates Talfagar group and Rasmussen

Too highly in their averages to rig it for Trump.

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Response to Jamesyu (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:29 PM

9. Charlie on DU!

Awesome to see. He's a true gem.

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Response to Jamesyu (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:29 PM

10. Republican Compilation Polling

Rates right-leaning pollsters highly.

So shocking.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:30 PM

11. It is going to be a blowout

No namby pamby skinny win.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:35 PM

12. I like the poll aggregator for the Economist, but Charlie Cook is the best!!

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:35 PM

13. Thank you for this.

Sick of the naysayers.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 10:01 PM

15. K n R ! Thanks for posting! nt

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 10:03 PM

16. I just want to see the Senate turn BLUE

... is that too greedy of me?

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Response to FakeNoose (Reply #16)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 10:12 PM

18. Not for one second. After the crap we've put up with?

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Response to FakeNoose (Reply #16)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 10:14 PM

19. That's so cute......stealing!

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Response to FakeNoose (Reply #16)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 12:07 AM

28. +1

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 10:11 PM

17. Whoa! Did nit know Charlie was here.

Ho ly cow.

Good article too and a welcome perspective.

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Response to mahina (Reply #17)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 10:18 PM

20. he popped in on a Malaise thread in 2018 asking about his significant weight loss

...wondering if he was okay (he was).

Is Charlie Cook ill?
That is some serious weight loss

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100210321711#post6

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Response to bigtree (Reply #20)


Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 10:20 PM

21. This is True, It's Right in Front of Our Noses So We're Really Not Seeing It but

The conventional wisdom is "Will Biden's win be big enough to overcome Trump's cheating/whining/tyranny". And that's a good thing.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:04 PM

22. Fantastic! I don't ever recall such certainty in a projection except perhaps 72 or 84

I also think Cook May be crafting a pre-emptive narrative to get in ahead of Trump/Fox trying to capitalize on a potential “red mirage” Election Night.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:29 PM

24. K & R

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:29 PM

25. K & R

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:42 PM

27. After reading that, I am really optimistic. Still gonna vote tho obviously. :)

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 07:50 AM

29. kick

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