Lots of focus on abortion (and rightfully so) but the ACA is all but dead at this point... [View all]

[Drunken Irishman]

If a conservative justice gets put on the bench in time for oral arguments on the ACA lawsuit (which will be 11/10), it's all but gone. It barely withstood the courts back in 2012 and that was with Roberts siding with the liberal wing. At this point, even if Roberts votes similarly, it's doubtful any other conservative justice will and there won't be enough liberals to save it.

That's if the nominee is confirmed in the next few weeks.

IF it goes to a lame duck session, that nominee won't be approved, likely, before oral arguments begin and then they can't vote (I believe). That means the court remains at 4-4 potentially if Roberts sides with the liberal-wing, therefore there is no ruling. It defaults to the lower court ruling - which overturns it.

So, the ACA is all but gone.