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Sat Sep 19, 2020, 01:26 AM

Lots of focus on abortion (and rightfully so) but the ACA is all but dead at this point...

If a conservative justice gets put on the bench in time for oral arguments on the ACA lawsuit (which will be 11/10), it's all but gone. It barely withstood the courts back in 2012 and that was with Roberts siding with the liberal wing. At this point, even if Roberts votes similarly, it's doubtful any other conservative justice will and there won't be enough liberals to save it.

That's if the nominee is confirmed in the next few weeks.

IF it goes to a lame duck session, that nominee won't be approved, likely, before oral arguments begin and then they can't vote (I believe). That means the court remains at 4-4 potentially if Roberts sides with the liberal-wing, therefore there is no ruling. It defaults to the lower court ruling - which overturns it.

So, the ACA is all but gone.

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Arrow 15 replies Author Time Post
Reply Lots of focus on abortion (and rightfully so) but the ACA is all but dead at this point... (Original post)
Drunken Irishman Sep 19 OP
BigmanPigman Sep 19 #1
Cha Sep 19 #4
BigmanPigman Sep 19 #5
emmaverybo Sep 19 #11
dalton99a Sep 19 #2
brush Sep 19 #3
Qutzupalotl Sep 19 #6
regnaD kciN Sep 19 #12
Awsi Dooger Sep 19 #7
PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 19 #8
dchill Sep 19 #9
PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 19 #13
qazplm135 Sep 19 #10
PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 19 #14
qazplm135 Sep 19 #15

Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 01:29 AM

1. The Dems better make this a BIG issue and NOW!

These should be the first words out of every Dem's mouth! ACA is what got us a Blue Wave in 2018. This is bigger than abortion right now.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 01:42 AM

4. The Dems made ACA/Health Care a Big Issue in

2o18 as per advice from Nancy & we had a Democratic House Victory. I think you meant "2018", right?

I imagine our Dems will Make this a Bigger Issue NOW.

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Response to Cha (Reply #4)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 01:48 AM

5. Yes, 2018.

Duh on me! I fixed it (thanks!). The ACA is THE ISSUE. Bernie suggested Biden should go with this big time recently and he is right on this one. The ACA, then jobs (especially now with Covid).

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #5)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 02:53 AM

11. ACA, jobs, Social Security!

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 01:29 AM

2. And it will stay dead if the GOP majority on the court is left unchecked


Which is why the court MUST be expanded


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Response to dalton99a (Reply #2)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 01:38 AM

3. If Joe wins and we take the Senate, everything changes. Biden will reinstate the ACA...

with the public option as he has mentioned. The court has no immediate say over what laws are passed by the House and Senate.

The repugs could try to take something through courts but the ACA with the public option might he so popular, they wouldn't dare.

Let's see how this plays out. The polls are holding steady for Biden and if he wins we have a good chance of taking the Senate, especially now with repugs senators with toughr races being put in a position of denying Obama but giving trump a vote on a SCOTUS justice. They don't want to lose their seat.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 01:52 AM

6. Conservative justices are not always rubber stamps for Republican presidents.

I will grant that some are. But for the most part, conservative justices try to interpret the law as written and take a dim view on giving expansive power to any one branch, including the courts. Liberal justices tend to give people the benefit of the doubt, and favor more expansive individual rights. So itís not a direct parallel to Republicans and Democrats. Justices have to seek a justification for their rulings either in the law or in their reasoning. Ideologues will have a harder time justifying their positions if they are not based in law.

So I donít know that itís a foregone conclusion that ACA is dead. It all comes down to the arguments, how they are presented, and how the law is written. I think overturning a duly passed law is a high bar, and even conservative justices are reluctant to go that far. Letís see what happens when itís argued.

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Response to Qutzupalotl (Reply #6)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 03:05 AM

12. As the OP points out...

...even if no replacement justice is confirmed, it will still go before an 8-vote Court, 4 of whom already voted to overturn it in 2012 (I'm counting on Kavanaugh and Gorsuch to vote the same as Kennedy and Scalia). Meaning that the best we can hope for is a 4-4 split, in which case the lower-circuit Court of Appeals decision overturning it is upheld.

So, it's "heads, they win - tails, we lose."

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 02:00 AM

7. That the first thing I thought about when I learned of Ginsberg's death

The immediate impact is the Affordable Care Act, not Roe v. Wade

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 02:14 AM

8. Abortion. If you don't believe in abortion, then don't have one.

And explain to me why it is a Good Thing that people don't have some kind of basic health care coverage?

Okay, I understand you and I are on the same side here, but this is what I want asked of the anti-choice, anti- health care people every single day.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #8)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 02:25 AM

9. Self-described Christians are cruel?

That's been my experience.

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Response to dchill (Reply #9)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 03:37 AM

13. Yep.

For one thing, they usually deny the humanity of those who don't subscribe to their narrow set of beliefs. And they assume they can tell everyone else how to behave or what to believe, as if any other belief or ethical systems don't exist.

In reality, non believers tend to behave far more morally than self-described Christians or any other faiths. Which is among the reasons I totally despise most religious people. They have a fundamental lack of understanding that anything outside their own narrow beliefs can possibly be valid or worthwhile.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 02:47 AM

10. Medicare for all isn't happening anytime soon either

The folks who didn't vote for Hillary because she wasn't pure enough are about to choke on that decision with the rest of us.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #10)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 03:45 AM

14. I gather that Biden is not in favor of Medicare for All.

I'm not sure why. But we will get to that at some point.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #14)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 09:54 AM

15. Doesn't matter...

A 6-3 court would overturn it.

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