NV-SEN: Jon Ralston predicts visctory for Jacky Rosen

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Nevada is fairly easy to forecast

Only a handful of key variables -- Clark County, Washoe County and the so-called Cow Counties.

When I lived in Las Vegas and was following every day it was simple to evaluate the statewide races.

The only change now is the continuing departure of white males. We continue to lose an additional percent or two, so you can't merely assign the traditional numbers and be confident it will hold up. That's why Ralston is hedging a little bit. I think he was a bit shocked that Hillary's lead in Nevada shrunk so much on election day, far below what he expected based on early voting. If that trend happens again it would probably be even more pronounced in a midterm.

Independents need to bail us out. Rosen has not enjoyed as much of an edge among independents in polling as other Democratic candidates across the country. I'm hoping the recent developments have shoved independents further away from Trump and that is decisive in tight races like this one.