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Sun Nov 4, 2018, 01:41 PM

NV-SEN: Jon Ralston predicts visctory for Jacky Rosen

The Democratic machine had built up a seemingly insurmountable lead in early votes, amassing a 71,000-ballot edge in Clark County and 50,000 statewide.

When it came time for me to pen my biennial election predictions column, the decision should have been simple. But something told me Heller would survive, that his relentless pummeling of then-Rep. Shelley Berkley for a House Ethics probe and then a brutal coup de grace distortion about a family trip she took to Italy, would be just enough to save him.

I foretold that he would win by 1 point despite the big Democratic wins on Election Day, and he did.

Not this time.

Heller, who has never lost a race, is almost as much of a political survivor as Harry Reid, the man who built the machine that failed to defeat Nevada’s senior senator six years ago but should succeed on Tuesday. Heller has done everything he can to lose the race — most notably, his multifarious positions on repealing Obamacare leading to the devastating “Senator Spineless” meme. Yet he has a chance to hold on.

Even though the Democratic machine has not built as big of a firewall as in 2012 – 47,000 in Clark County and 23,000 statewide – this is a midterm, and it will be enough. I think.

This has been a strange fortnight of early voting, with turnout much higher than usual for a non-presidential year and with momentum seeming to build for the Democrats and culminating with a Friday wave of votes. (You can read all of the dynamics here on my blog.)

But what’s clear is that younger people are voting in higher numbers, that while the president has animated the right as no other Republican can, Trump Fatigue is beginning to settle in the saner corners of the political universe and anger is rising. What’s also quite evident is that Washoe County, which saved Heller in 2012 when he won by 20,000 votes, has changed a lot. Democrats lead there after early voting by almost 2,000 votes. Heller may win Washoe, where Hillary Clinton also won, but not by a lot more than she did (3,000 votes).

Rep. Jacky Rosen is not a better candidate than Shelley Berkley. Indeed, she may be as nondescript a contender as you can imagine, on the verge of ascending to the Club of 100 when no one knew who she was three years ago before Reid plucked her from obscurity.

But Rosen is real and comes across that way. She is not Wacky Jacky; she is Regular Rosen. And this year, that should be enough.



https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/predictions-for-tuesday

7 replies, 1019 views

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Reply NV-SEN: Jon Ralston predicts visctory for Jacky Rosen (Original post)
RandySF Nov 4 OP
nycbos Nov 4 #1
Blue_true Nov 4 #3
RandySF Nov 4 #4
nycbos Nov 4 #6
Bleacher Creature Nov 4 #2
Awsi Dooger Nov 4 #7
Wellstone ruled Nov 4 #5

Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 01:51 PM

1. Take nothing for granted.

GOTV GOTV

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Response to nycbos (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 02:15 PM

3. EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!! Sprint through the tape. nt

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Response to nycbos (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 02:46 PM

4. Trust me.

I've neglected my family over two weeks of GOTV and hiding the bank statements from my wife because of all the donations I made right up through yesterday.

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Response to RandySF (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:00 PM

6. Haha

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 02:07 PM

2. Wow! I don't think there's a pundit out there who knows a state better than Ralston knows NV.

Hope he's right!

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Response to Bleacher Creature (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:02 PM

7. Nevada is fairly easy to forecast

Only a handful of key variables -- Clark County, Washoe County and the so-called Cow Counties.

When I lived in Las Vegas and was following every day it was simple to evaluate the statewide races.

The only change now is the continuing departure of white males. We continue to lose an additional percent or two, so you can't merely assign the traditional numbers and be confident it will hold up. That's why Ralston is hedging a little bit. I think he was a bit shocked that Hillary's lead in Nevada shrunk so much on election day, far below what he expected based on early voting. If that trend happens again it would probably be even more pronounced in a midterm.

Independents need to bail us out. Rosen has not enjoyed as much of an edge among independents in polling as other Democratic candidates across the country. I'm hoping the recent developments have shoved independents further away from Trump and that is decisive in tight races like this one.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 02:55 PM

5. We call it flooding the zone.

Understand the Straight Ticket voting was and is the flavor of the day.

Heller was appointed by the Casino Owners when Ensign had to resign. And many of us do have memories as to how this Guy Survived. Yes it was Berkley's to have,but she decided to go stupid and let her ego cost her the Senate seat. And she was not the first and will not be the last.

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