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bluewater

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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 4,982

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Vote for a candidate you are confidant can beat Trump.

Many people have said they want our nominee to be the person who has the "best" chance of beating Trump.

What polls will we use to determine who can "best" beat Trump?

The Emerson Poll of June 25th shows Sanders and Biden have identical chances of beating Trump:

Sanders 55, Trump 45
Biden 55, Trump 45

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/national_general_election/

So if the only criteria is who can "best" defeat Trump, Sanders should be given equal consideration to Biden. Good luck trying to sell that argument here on DU

That poll, and others, also show other candidates beating Trump.

6 Democrats would beat Trump if the election were held today, according to a new national poll
https://www.businessinsider.com/six-democrats-beat-trump-if-election-held-today-new-poll-2019-6

But do these polls tell us who can "best" defeat Trump? And aren't polls jumping all over the place?

I have already seen a few DU-ers saying the it doesn't matter who the National Polls show can best defeat trump, we need to look at polls only in swing states. And then the discussion starts about which states are swing states and which candidates can bring other states into play.

So, my personal approach is not to quibble over which candidate can "best" defeat Trump

I will vote for the candidate that I am confidant can beat Trump and whose positions most agree with my values.

Sorry all, I misread and posted incorrectly about a poll

Earlier today I posted an op "asking" if the latest ABCNews/WashPost was ratf*cked by Republican responders.

By "asking" I mean jumping up and down insisting it was.

Well I was wrong. So. Wrong. Flat out wrong.

I misread the Methodology section, and yeah the line break messed with my poor eyesight, but I rushed to post what I mistakenly thought was the poll being 37% Republican Independent responders.

Again, that was just flat out wrong.

Thanks to all of the people that replied, very politely, and pointed out my mistake. To be honest, you all were nicer to me when correcting my mistake than I have been to other people at times. I will work on that.

Which pairings would you like to see in the 2nd debate?

I would really like to see Joe Biden on stage with Elizabeth Warren and Bill De Blasio.

Some perspective on early leads in the polls

From the 2007 Democratic Primary campaigns:

Rasmussen Reports Poll
June 2528, 2007

Hillary Clinton 39%, Barack Obama 26%, John Edwards 13%, Bill Richardson 5%, Joe Biden 3%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Chris Dodd 1%, Mike Gravel 0%, Undecided 9%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries


President Obama did not lead in any national poll until Feb 1-3 2008.

To date, in 2019 no candidate has broken away from the field. The 2020 nomination remains wide open.
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