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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 01:43 PM
Number of posts: 610

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Biden to participate in ABC town hall Oct. 15 in lieu of Trump debate

Source: The Hill

Democratic nominee Joe Biden will take part in a town hall forum hosted by ABC News next Thursday on the night of what was supposed to be the second presidential debate.

The former vice president will instead participate in an event in Philadelphia moderated by ABC anchor George Stephanopoulos.

The announcement indicates that the second presidential debate will no longer take place as planned Oct. 15 after President Trump balked at the decision to make it a virtual event for safety reasons.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/520244-biden-to-participate-in-abc-town-hall-oct-15-in-lieu-of-trump-debate

Donald Trump just got another excuse if he loses the 2020 election

I'm not much of a Chris Cillizza fan, although he does occasionally has pretty good analysis of political happenings. And today is one such day. Chrissy boy thinks Trump is looking for every excuse he can throw out there on why his very likely landslide happened. The excuse Cillizza thinks Trump is building in his mind right now is that the first debate was a dominating victory over Biden and moving the 2nd debate to a virtual format is part of a plot to undermine Trump. All obvious horseshit but I think Chris Cillizza is onto something here.

Remember that Trump views himself as a perpetual winner at life. He is incapable of admitting defeat or failure -- his multiple bankruptcies were all strategic successes, any deal that went south was because he decided it was a bad deal etc. -- and, therefore, when a loss looks likely Trump naturally looks for reason as to why he was somehow cheated, for example:

His fact-free assertion that 3 to 5 million people cast illegal votes in the 2016 election to explain why Hillary Clinton beat him by nearly 3 million in the popular vote. His blaming of Republicans who refused to run on his record (false!) for GOP losses in the midterms. His ongoing attempts to suggest that everyone involved with the FBI counterintelligence probe, which found that Russia sought to actively interfere in the 2016 election to help him and hurt Clinton, should be jailed. And of course, Trump's repeated -- and repeatedly false -- claims that the increase in mail-in-balloting in the 2020 election (due to concerns about Covid-19) will lead to a fraudulent election.

Trump's refusal to participate in a virtual second debate fits directly into that pattern of thinking: They changed the rules on me! Joe Biden couldn't survive another in-person debate with me! This is all rigged!


I think Trump is terrified and in denial

When Trump decided to leave Walter Reed, there were lots of theories as to what his motivation is. Some people say it's to pretend covid is no big deal to help his reelection, others that he is high on meds, and still others say he's too dumb to understand what's happening. Yes to all of those, to some degree, but I think in reality Trump knows exactly how this is likely going to end, he is terrified, and is now in severe denial. Even someone as dense and disinterested as Trump would eventually learn what the typical course of severe covid looks like. He's probably had hundreds of meetings and briefings about covid. Surely some info got through. So it's very possible Trump remembers that for some people the severe symptoms don't come on until the 2nd or 3rd week and he has already had pretty bad symptoms. Maybe he is terrified that in a few days, shit's likely to hit him very hard but maybe if he just takes these pills that make him feel better and he doesn't step foot back in the hospital that he will get through it....somehow.

I do think Trump is all sorts of fucked up on drugs right now but I don't think he really thinks he has beat anything and that he is absolutely terrified right now.

Biden's net favorability jumps to +17 with likely voters

I saw Harry Enten wrote about this on Twitter. I haven't found an actual article about it but this is from Fox's polling numbers released this evening. Bidens net favorability rating has jumped to +17. He's become a very popular politican. He had been at something like -2 before so this is a massive jump, it seems.


Edit: Better link


The Final Message of a Dying Campaign

For the last four years, Trump’s supporters and detractors have retconned his 2016 victory, arguing that, having won an improbable election, the president must be a political genius. In this school of thought, Trump’s psychotic tweets and staggering incompetence are rendered into perverse strengths: We are playing checkers; he is playing chess. This narrative deserved to die an agonizing death years ago and should now be cast aside forever. Trailing in the polls with only 30 days left before the 2020 election, the president has embraced a reelection strategy that is, even for him, profoundly stupid.

When Trump was initially diagnosed with Covid-19, there was some speculation that this could actually be good for him. The president’s haphazard pandemic response has received abysmal marks: Here was an opportunity to change the narrative. There could, some added, be a “rally round the bedside” effect, similar to what happened following U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s hospitalization for Covid-19 in the spring. “This moment is an opportunity for Trump to hit reset on his tone-deaf message on COVID that we are always on the cusp of seeing the definitive end of the virus,” wrote the editors of The National Review. “His lack of realism during the pandemic is one reason his ratings on handling it are so low.” Get the message right, this line of thinking goes, and Trump can save his campaign.

This argument assumed that Trump could adopt humility and use his physical weakness as a political strength—that he could even admit fault, recognizing his own failures and the importance of frontline workers and first responders. Voters didn’t think Trump was taking Covid-19 seriously; here was an opportunity to show them just how seriously he was taking the virus.


Biden Widens Lead to 21 Points After Trump's Coronavirus Diagnosis: Poll

Source: Newsweek

Dramatically fewer voters said they intend to cast ballots for President Donald Trump after he was diagnosed with COVID-19, according to a new poll.

A poll released Tuesday by Franklin Pierce University and The Boston Herald shows Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's lead grew from 5 percent before the positive test result to 21 percent after Trump's diagnosis was announced.

Biden was supported by 46 percent of likely voters compared to 41 percent for Trump during the two days before his infection was revealed, while 55 percent said they would vote for Biden and only 34 percent stuck with Trump in the three days after the diagnosis.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/biden-widens-lead-21-points-after-trumps-coronavirus-diagnosis-poll-1536917

Voting for Biden was very cathartic

This was probably the most upbeat and satisfied I have felt voting since at least 2008. I think I checked my ballot at least 15 times to make 100% sure that I picked Biden but after I turned it in, felt a sense of relief hit. I think we are finally reaching the end of this shit show. I felt especially good by the turnout I saw. I live in a Democratic dominated small city and the place was very busy even though in personal early voting started a week ago.

Overall I feel pretty good right now. Time to kick Trump orange, wheezing ass to the curb and bring in someone who is actually qualified.

CNN Poll: Only 1% of likely voters are still undecided

This is based on the CNN poll from today showing Biden with a 16 point lead. Chris Cillizza (I know, ewww) has an article out looking at two key numbers from that poll.

1. Only 1% of likely voters are still undecided on whether to back Trump or Biden. Over 90% of likely voters are absolutely locked into their choice.

2. 8% of voters say they are still open to changing their mind on who they are voting for. Not likely to but are still at least open to seeing how things play out. Sounds like a lot and a very, very small hope for Trump to close the gap, even a little. However, most of those 8% of voters who are open to changing their minds are Trump supporters, not people backing Biden.

So the number of true undecideds are as close to 0 as you can get, while people open to changing their mind are mostly soft Trump supporters, which of course means, at best Trump can hold on to his current supporters which puts him down by 16 points. However, some are willing to abandon him. Biden doesn't have that problem.


Americans are tired of the chaos

I know, I know we aren't allowed to talk about how Trump is virtually guaranteed to lose in a massive landslide because then we won't vote or something. Fine, yes, vote, pretend it's a tie, don't get complacent, all that good stuff.

But let's take a step back for a second, assume this one post won't cost Biden the election, take away all of the emotion, and look at things objectively. The Republicans are heading for an electoral bloodbath in a few weeks and Trump, assuming he even survives his steroid induced manic coronavirus episode, is going to go down in flames as well. Throughout the spring, summer, and even up until this weekend, part of me took seriously the idea that Trump is electorally invincible. It wasn't a big part, mind you. I was about 90% certain that the US had not lost all sanity and that Trump was a temporary aberration. 2016 was a perfect storm of fucked up events that landed a dangerously unqualified man in the White House. He stumbled into the presidency on dumb luck alone.

But still, part of me wondered. He did win in 2016, even though some people said he couldn't. I wasn't one of those people but still, many did underestimate him. Maybe his supporters were right. Maybe polls aren't capturing a huge groundswell of support. Maybe Trump's stupid "law and order" message would resonate with voters. Maybe coronavirus would peter out and the economy would come roaring back. Maybe Trump would crush Biden in the debate. A small part of me wondered. Maybe I'm the one out of touch and the MAGA crowd was more in touch with what Americans want than I am.

But alas that part of me died over the past few days. Everything from the last week has made me realize that the red hats are indeed delusional, their confidence in Trump is horribly misplaced, and the results of this election have been a foregone conclusion for a longtime now.

I've heard predictions from them for months that coronavirus would just disappear and that most Americans just want to go back to normal, virus be damned. None of that was true. I heard predictions that Trump's "law and order", pro-confederate campaign would appeal to Americans real interests. No, not even close. I heard about how the Republican Convention was going to fire up conservatives and independents, make people excited about Trump again. Nope. I heard predictions that the debate would be a disaster for Biden. Joe is too feeble and Trump is too dominating and strong. Then people would see. It was a disaster alright but definitely not for Biden. And this weekend I heard that Trump becoming severely ill and his entire administration and campaign being out of commission for the next month, at best, would make Trump more sympathetic to voters. Polls show by a margin of 3 to 1 that is not at all how Americans are reacting.

There was a point, until very recently where a small part of me did wonder "what if all of that is true?". But seeing Trump gasping for air last night, making claims about his health and coronavirus that as a doctor I know are 100% untrue, seeing polls out over the past few days showing Biden consistently up by double digits nationally, I now realize, it's over. It has been over for a long time. None of the bluster, the ultra right wing messaging, the race baiting, the downplaying coronavirus, the cult like behavior of the Republican party, Trump screaming like a madman at rallies, ramming through an ultra right wing justice, the state of the economy, sending out secret police to beat protesters, the yelling about voter fraud, that insane debate performance, Trump "beating" coronavirus, none of that was ever going to work.

I can say with absolute certainly that Americans are beyond sick of Trump, his psychotic enablers and fans, and all of the corruption, incompetence, and chaos that he brings. There is no brilliant plan for Trump to win the election. There is no untapped, ultra right wing groundswell of support. Americans aren't taking the dismissive tone about coronavirus seriously. People aren't happy because the Dow jones is doing ok. And the polls aren't wrong and haven't been wrong. And Trump isn't some brilliant political strategist. Americans gave up on Trump years ago, they just couldn't do anything about it until now. When we look back at why Trump lost, badly, we will say that Americans were just tired of the chaos.

Trump is out of his fucking mind

Is he really running around, waving to crowds and the media, giving interviews, etc? Not saying anything about running around with a mask off while covid positive, my biggest concern from a medical stand point is that he's going overexert himself while he is already in very, very rough shape and it won't end well. Physically he has been under an insane amount of stress in the last week and he is currently still infected with a very aggressive virus. He's on a bunch of drugs that are suppressing his symptoms. He's going to burn himself out very quickly and his symptoms are likely going to come back with a vengeance in the next day or two.

Unless he is somehow on the road to recovery (highly doubtful) holy shit, he is out of his fucking mind. The implications of his behavior today are likely going to catastrophic. This is absolutely horrifying to watch.
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