OH-12: Danny O'Connor goes on the offense with GOP tax cuts, Medicare

In the race for Ohio’s 12th congressional district, one party is on the airwaves talking about the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act more than the other: The Democratic Party.

Since July 16, shortly after the start of early voting for the Aug. 7 special election, a Republican ad about the tax cut has been taken off the air, replaced by one that makes only a glancing mention of it. The party’s ads are focusing more on Democratic nominee Danny O’Connor — his résumé, his political affiliations and his donations — as Democrats fold the tax cut into their own messaging.

In one ad, “Deserve,” O’Connor refers to the tax cut as “a corporate tax giveaway that adds $2 trillion in debt,” and cites comments by the Republican nominee, Troy Balderson, that endorsed raising the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare as a way to reduce the debt.

In another ad, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee uses B roll of Balderson at a corporate roundtable to make the same argument — by supporting new debt-financed tax cuts, Balderson will cut a path toward cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

The messaging in the Ohio district, which backed President Trump by 11 points in 2016, echoes what Democrats used to close their campaign in Pennsylvania’s old 18th District in March. At that time, the controversial tax cut — which got no Democratic votes — was experiencing a surge in popularity, with polls suggesting around 43 percent of Americans had backed the law.

Today, the same polling average has support for the law at 36 percent — better in swing districts but no longer seen as an issue that moves the needle. In Ohio, the law appeared in just one ad for Balderson, a spot paid for by the Congressional Leadership Fund, which promised that he would protect “our middle-class tax cut,” while “Nancy Pelosi called our tax cut crumbs.” O’Connor, like many Democrats in swing seats this year, has said that he would oppose Pelosi for speaker of the House, but Republicans have used his support from the national Democratic Party to tie him to Pelosi.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/07/23/in-ohio-less-gop-talk-about-tax-cuts-and-more-about-the-resistance/?utm_term=.21882175797c

Larry Sabato moved 17 House ratings in Democrats' direction.

PA-17: Rothfus vs. Lamb Clash Moves From Toss Up to Lean Democratic

In February, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court set up an epic clash when its new map paired two incumbents in the Pittsburgh suburbs in the new 17th CD. But a Monmouth University poll shows newly elected Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb leading three-term GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus 51 percent to 39 percent. It corroborates data parties have seen privately, and we're moving our rating from Toss Up to Lean Democratic.

The new 17th CD is close to Lamb's dream district. It unites almost all of suburban Allegheny County, including his home and political base of Mt. Lebanon, with Beaver County, which has a strong blue-collar Democratic heritage.

On the whole, it's much less Republican and more Pittsburgh-centric than either incumbent's current seat. Both Lamb and Rothfus's current seats voted for President Trump by around 20 points. But the new 17th CD voted for Trump by just two points, 49 percent to 47 percent (its PVI is R+3, versus R+11 in both the current 12th and 18th CDs). It also sports a double-digit Democratic voter registration advantage.

Technically, Lamb currently represents just 20 percent of the new 17th CD compared to 56 percent for Rothfus, according to widely respected number-crunching by the liberal website Daily Kos Elections. And, whereas Lamb came to Congress by a razor-thin 755 votes in a March special election, Rothfus has won comfortably with more than 59 percent in his last two races. But Rothfus might not have much of an incumbency advantage.

Rothfus, a 56-year old former corporate attorney, hasn't had a competitive race since defeating Democratic Rep. Mark Critz in 2012 and has kept a low profile in the House. On the other hand, Lamb, 34, is a Marine veteran and prosecutor riding sky-high publicity from his recent ad spending and special election victory. What's more, Lamb will be able to able to attack Rothfus's votes for the GOP healthcare and tax bills, cast before the new lines came out.


https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/pennsylvania-house/pa-17-rothfus-vs-lamb-clash-moves-toss-lean-democratic

GA-GOV: Republicans poised to nominate the greater evil.

Kemp 59%
Cagle 41%




https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ajt1qcHVAgDkgKFEnZKeIZrtXM9rUUIu/view

Nebraska: Medicaid expansion could impact voter turnout

Gov. Pete Ricketts' cautious reaction to what appears to be a successful petition drive to place a Medicaid expansion initiative on the November ballot may be an early sign that the issue could be a factor in this year's election.

While the governor, through his campaign spokesman, pointed to concerns about the proposal's impact on funding for current Medicaid recipients, a pool largely composed of children and the elderly, Democratic challenger Bob Krist quickly announced his support for the expansion of assistance to about 90,000 low-income, working Nebraskans who are uninsured now.

Supporters of the initiative say more than 133,000 Nebraskans signed their petitions.

Those are two big figures that conceivably could translate into voters in November.

It's interesting to note that when a petition drive to increase the state's minimum wage gained access to the 2014 general election ballot, it not only won overwhelming voter approval, but the voter turnout in the metropolitan Omaha congressional district contributed to Democratic congressional nominee Brad Ashford's upset of veteran Republican Rep. Lee Terry.

But, whoa, there were other factors at play in the Terry-Ashford contest that were working against the Republican congressman. Terry already was politically vulnerable, so it would be a mistake to suggest that the initiative voter turnout was an overriding factor.

And yet, no doubt it motivated some of the voter turnout.




https://journalstar.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/don-walton-medicaid-expansion-could-impact-voter-turnout/article_fa77ecb7-fb26-5c60-af08-0dfe88ca50c4.html

ID-GOV: Republican Brad Little up 38% to 28% over Paulette Jordan

ID-Gov: The Democratic pollster Clarity Campaign Labs has conducted a survey of Idaho's gubernatorial election for Idaho Voices for Change Now, and their poll gives Republican Lt. Gov. Brad Little a surprisingly modest 38-28 lead over Democrat Paulette Jordan. This is the first general election poll we've seen from anyone this cycle, so there’s little to indicate whether this poll is on the mark or not, but election observers widely believe the GOP is heavily favored in this deep-red state.



https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/7/23/1782674/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-7-23?t=1532377011789#update-1532377010000

Barbara Lee announces bid for Democratic Caucus chair

Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) on Monday jumped into the race to replace outgoing Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.) atop the House Democratic Caucus, setting the stage for a contest that’s sure to highlight the thorny questions of identity politics swirling around the party as many lawmakers clamor for change heading into the 2020 presidential cycle.

In a letter to her colleagues, Lee is vowing to spread power to a greener crop of lawmakers, many of whom have been frustrated by the long tenure of the current leaders.

“Our caucus is at its best when everyone has an opportunity to contribute and collaborate,” Lee wrote. “My top priority will be offering new ways to engage all members.”

The caucus chairmanship position opened up last month after the shocking primary defeat of Crowley, a popular 10-term lawmaker who was seen by many Democrats as a potential heir to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). His unexpected loss to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old democratic socialist and first-time candidate, means his leadership position will be up for grabs next year.

Lee, 72, will face Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.), 49, a former head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus who announced her bid for the post last week and edged out Lee by two votes in 2016 to become caucus vice chair. Others are also thought to be eying the race in the wake of Crowley’s loss.

If Lee secures the post, the former head of the Congressional Black Caucus would be the first African-American woman in either party to hold a House leadership post.


http://thehill.com/homenews/house/398361-barbara-lee-announces-bid-for-democratic-caucus-chair?__twitter_impression=true

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION: Carl Brewer for Kansas Governor

I'm Carl Brewer, and I want to be your next governor of Kansas.

My mother, along with some help from my grandparents, raised my five siblings and me right here in Kansas. My family has endured many struggles over the years, but through that, I've learned the importance of honesty, responsibility, education, and, above all, a faith in God.

At 16, I started my first full-time job at a meat-packing plant. I also spent many summers with my aunt and uncle on their ranch in Oklahoma, where I learned the value of farming and hard work.

From there, I served in the Kansas Army National Guard, where I became the first African American President of my Officer Candidate School Class. As a captain, I saw firsthand the heroism of my fellow soldiers while we patrolled the death and destruction on the night after the Andover and Hesston tornado. I later served as the Company Commander of infantry and artillery companies.

I worked in the aircraft industry for 32 years. I began as a sheet metal worker, and later joined the Machinists Union and became a union steward. I moved forward as a manufacturing engineer and eventually moved onto the management team at Spirit Aviation.

For 37 years, I have been married to my wife, Cathy. She is an amazing mother to our four children. Together we attend Holy Savior Catholic Church where I also sing in the choir. We especially love being grandparents to our 13 grandchildren and 3 great-grandchildren.


My hobbies include hunting, fishing and I am also a barbecue pit master. I make and sell my own BBQ sauce, and sometimes even compete at culinary events around the state.

One of the greatest privileges of my career was serving as the Mayor of Wichita from 2007-2015 where my message has always been: We cannot wait for others to take care of us. We must identify and bring back opportunities for our businesses. We must look outside our nation’s borders, building relationships and opening doors, to the lead the way for our companies.

During that time, I worked both sides of the political divide to help the city thrive despite the worst recession since the Great Depression. I was the first African American elected by city-wide popular vote as Mayor of Wichita. I was later was re-elected with 69% of the vote.

As Mayor, I led the city in developing the community’s engagement in international trade. I promoted trade as a key strategy to secure Wichita’s economic future, championing exports to mayors in cities across Kansas and Missouri.

As Kansas needs to claim its fair share in the global marketplace, I visited foreign nations and hosting foreign delegations to Wichita, introducing countless foreign businessmen and leaders to the quality products manufactured by Wichita companies.

In 2013, leaning on the professional services of the City of Wichita’s private sector trade partner Kansas Global Trade Services, Wichita was selected to be one of the 28 metros in Brookings’ Global Cities Initiative (GCI) – a program aimed at helping the leaders of American metropolitan areas strengthen their regional economies by becoming more competitive in the global marketplace. Wichita also unveiled the Global Air Capital-China program --a unique platform to promote the region’s aviation industry in China. Using the power of government to build business relationships in China, the Air Capital program focuses on export transactions and has the potential to attract foreign investors.

As mayor of a city that was thriving despite the Great Recession, I was asked to the visit the White House and share my views with President Barack Obama on several occasions. I had bi-weekly phone calls with Vice-President Joe Biden to stay in contact with national officials about the goals, needs and future of both Wichita and Kansas.

We've seen Wichita grow and thrive over the past decade. Now it's time for the entire state to experience the wonderful opportunities all of our communities deserve. With your support, I will get Kansas back on track.




https://www.brewerforkansas.com

MI-GOV: New poll shows Whitmer, Schuette likely to win in Michigan primary

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. - A new poll released by Emerson College, based in Massachusetts, shows the two favorites in the race for governor are Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette and Democratic former lawmaker Gretchen Whitmer. They are out to big leads with two weeks left in the race.

Whitmer is leading the Democratic primary field with 39 percent, followed by businessman Shri Thanedar at 17 percent, and former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed at 12 percent. About a third of voters are still undecided.

Schuette leads the primary on the Republican side for Governor with 35 percent, followed by Lt. Gov. Brian Calley at 13 percent, Jim Hines at 9 percent and Patrick Colbeck at 7 percent. About a third of Republican primary voters are also undecided.

In a hypothetical matchup, Whitmer is ahead of Schuette by 7 points with a margin of error at 4 percent. That makes Whitmer the one to beat in November at this juncture of the campaign.

The Michigan Emerson College polling was conducted July 19-21.



https://www.wzzm13.com/article/news/politics/michigan-politics/new-poll-shows-whitmer-schuette-likely-to-win-in-michigan-primary/69-576773216

MA-07: Incumbent Mike Capuano leads primary challenger Ayanna Pressley by nine percent.