AL-SEN: I predict that Moore wins 53-47

I hope I’m wrong because Doug Jones ran the best Southern Democratic campaign in quite some time. But the deck is severely stacked in deep red Alabama. But like I said, I’ll be thrilled to be wrong.

AL-SEN: If Richard Shelby rejects Moore on the weekend before the election...

what kind of private polling numbers is he looking at?

My first 2018 predictions one year out.

1. Roy Moore wins in Alabama by high single digits. Jones ran the best best Southern Dem campaign in recent history, but the deck was always stacked against him.

2. Democrats narrowly take the House with surprise wins in the Southwest, Texas and Florida.

3. The Senate remains unchanged with Republicans picking up Missouri and Indiana while Dems flip Arizona and Nevada.

4. Democrats pick up governorships in VT, NH, ME, MA, MD, MI, IL, NV, NM and a few small red states on state level Democratic tidal waves, but Republicans take back Alaska. Numerous state legislative bodies flip.

AL-SEN: Trump to record robocall for Moore days before election

President Trump is set to record a robocall for GOP Senate candidate Roy Moore ahead of Alabama's election on Tuesday, according to a Politico report.

The call is expected to hit voters on Monday, and comes days after the president offered Moore his endorsement.

It will be Trump's second robocall for a Republican candidate in a little more than a month. He recorded one for Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia's gubernatorial race last month, though Gillespie lost the race to Democrat Ralph Northam.

Multiple women came forward last month to accuse Moore of pursuing sexual and romantic relations with them when they were teenagers and he was in his 30s.

After the allegations surfaced, Moore, now 70, faced calls from numerous GOP officials and lawmakers to withdraw from the Senate race, though he declined to do so. He has denied the allegations against him.


http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364119-trump-to-record-robocall-for-moore-days-before-election-report?rnd=1512853658

KY-06: Gray's Entry Moves Barr to Lean Republican

This week, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray announced he will challenge three-term GOP Rep. Andy Barr. Some Democrats are ecstatic because Gray is a popular mayor and wealthy construction businessman who carried the 6th CD in his 2016 bid against GOP Sen. Rand Paul, even while President Trump carried it 55 percent to 39 percent. But, he's not the only top-tier Democrat running in this red seat.

In August, retired fighter pilot and Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath launched her campaign with a video that went viral and helped her raise over $723,000. Her military profile is impressive, but she only moved back to Kentucky in the last year after retiring from teaching at the U.S. Naval Academy. Gray backers question the true strength of McGrath's grassroots support, but she's staying in the race.

McGrath's trailblazing story and outsider status fit the type of candidate who's gaining traction with Democrats in 2018. But after two terms as mayor, Gray begins the campaign with far more name recognition, the ability to self-fund and strong favorability with area Democrats. Gray, who is gay, led a swift push to relocate downtown confederate statues after the events in Charlottesville this summer.

The May Democratic primary also features African-American state Sen. Reggie Thomas, but he is unlikely to keep fundraising pace with Gray or McGrath. Some speculate that he may drop out and endorse Gray.


https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/kentucky-house/ky-06-grays-entry-moves-barr-lean-republican

MN-SEN: Attorney General Lori Swanson among those the running for appointment.

PERSONAL NOTE: I'm still processing Al Franken's departure and sorting through some strong feeling best kept to myself for the time-being.


Franken announced Thursday on the Senate floor that he would resign his seat in the coming weeks amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Attention now turns to DFL Gov. Mark Dayton, who is tasked with appointing someone to fill the soon-to-be vacant seat. In a statement, he said he will announce his choice in the next couple of days.

One of the biggest questions facing the governor is whether he should select a placeholder candidate — someone who will temporarily fill the seat and not run for election in November of 2018 — or give a boost to a Democrat who would run for the seat.

Plenty of potential candidate names are already floating around. Topping many lists is DFL Lt. Gov. Tina Smith — a longtime ally of Dayton whom many see as a likely placeholder candidate. Other names surfacing for the post include Attorney General Lori Swanson, 1st District Rep. Tim Walz and St. Paul Rep. Erin Murphy. Both Walz and Murphy are running for governor but could potentially switch to running for the Senate.

Others are saying they would like to see the governor appoint a person of color to the seat — such as 5th District Rep. Keith Ellison, who is African American, or state Rep. Ilhan Omar, who is Somali-American.


http://www.postbulletin.com/news/politics/who-will-replace-franken-political-leaders-weigh-in/article_d3127685-eee3-539b-85c5-931dcd57f3fe.html

Tweet of the Day

Trump didn't invite Democrats in Congress to the White House Hanukkah party

President Trump did not invite Democrats in Congress to the White House Hanukkah party on Thursday evening, according to The New York Times. Their exclusion means that the overwhelming majority of Jewish lawmakers were not present.

"It's deeply unfortunate that the White House Hanukkah Party — a bipartisan event bringing together Jewish and non-Jewish leaders alike to celebrate the Festival of Lights since 2001 — has turned into a partisan affair under this administration," Rep. Nita M. Lowey, D-New York, said in a statement, according to the report.

The two Jewish Republicans in Congress, Reps. David Kustoff, R-Tennessee, and Lee Zeldin, R-New York, attended the party, their offices told the Times. The 20 Jewish Democrats in Congress were not invited.

Mr. Trump also didn't invite leaders of the Reform Jewish movement, including Rabbi Rick Jacobs, the president of the Union for Reform Judaism. They have largely been critical of the administration's policies. He also didn't invite officials from J Street, the pro-Israel lobbying group that supports a two-state solution.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-didnt-invite-democrats-in-congress-to-the-white-house-hanukkah-party-reports-say/

My response to Trump's rally

$10 to Doug Jones.