Bookmark this post

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The current bull market that started under President Obama in 2009 is dead. I will leave it the verdict of history if Trump killed it.

[Achilleaze]

1. Dirty Donny* and his KGOP republican cronies KILLED IT

republicans are infamous for their economic FAIL, as far as the average citizen goes. But will the rich republicans get richer in the midst of the republican econo-clusterf*ck? You can bet your keister on it.

* aka republcian Draft-Dodger-in-Chief

[Hoyt]

2. Not much on using Stocks indices because it'll go back up 800 weeks or months from now and

trumpsters will be applauding their boy.

Unemployment, wage increases, inflation, etc., are better measures when related to politics. Right now, I don't think we have much economically to use against trump other than ill-advised tax cuts, tariffs starting trade war, and deficits. His ignorant white wing supporters, and even those who might go for a Democrat, are probably too stupid to understand.

While it's obvious that Obama's economy has carried us where we are, the market has still done a lot better than I thought it would under trump (not because of him, but in spite).


Inauguration 2017

Dow 19,827.25.
S&P 2,271.31.
Nasdaq 5,555.33


Today's close

Dow 25,027
S&P 2700
Nasdaq 7158

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. It has done reasonably well because Trump has been more bluster than action

2nd quarter GDP 4.2%
3rd quarter GDP 3.5%
4th quarter GDP 2.5% (projected)

He couldn't even get two 4%+ GDP quarters in a row out of his tax cut.

It is more likely than not the economy will be slower next year than this year.

[Hoyt]

4. Maybe, but bet we'll go into 2020 election with a relatively decent economy. That's not going to be

the best area to attack trump on, IMO. There's plenty of other stuff, though.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. If the bear market materializes the markets will be lower than when he was inaugurated,

[Hoyt]

9. Sure, if that happens.

[OilemFirchen]

7. The stock market is leading indicator.

Unemployment and the CPI are lagging indicators.

That is, the market is a predictor of future events, while unemployment and the CPI will only reflect the economy in retrospect.

Likely the best leading indicator is the bond yield curve, because treasuries are safe havens. As of today the 2 to 10 year yield curve is 11 basis points from inflection. (For reference, the year began with a 54 basis point spread. When Trump took office it was at 128.)

All conventional indications suggest that we are entering a bear market.

[Hoyt]

8. Fine, go trying to explain that to someone who voted for trump.

Leading Indicators are worthless attracting votes, especially when the unemployment rate is very low. That’s my point.

[OilemFirchen]

11. I'm trying to explain it to YOU.

There are no guarantees, of course, but your assumption that the market will be performing well in 2020 is belied by the best indicators. There's no need to explain to Trump supporters what's going on with the economy now if it turns south in the next two years.

[Hoyt]

12. My point is, it goes down 600. Then a week later, like last week,

it goes up 1000. If you were yelling about the 600 to show how bad trump is, it was negated and then some the following week.

I do believe we’ll get to the 2020 election with a relatively good economy, unemployment low, inflation relatively low, consumer sentiment high like it is now, etc. Grousing about trump’s economy won’t work, except among the choir.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. This bull market is already long in the tooth.

None of us have crystal balls but the indices indicate the market and the economy will be lower and slower in 2019 and 2020 than it is now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. When short term yields are higher than long term yields that indicate an impending recession.

Economics 101

[OilemFirchen]

16. Yes, and it's not because it's a simple variable for prediction purposes.

It's because it indicates that investors are moving into treasuries. and that's because treasuries are a better investment.

People can pooh-pooh leading indicators as woo to their hearts content, but they are actually useful because they actually reflect actual sentiment based on the actual economy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. The markets are forward looking.

Unemployment, GDP, and inflation are backwards looking. Trump tried to juice the economy to win the mid terms with his massive tax cuts. His party still got shellacked. Now he has no tools to stimulate the economy.

[OilemFirchen]

10. Per my previous post:

The NYSE Composite Index (NYA) is down 680.74 points YTD. That's a 5% drop.

[Hoyt]

14. Yet, it's up over 20% in 23 months.

[OilemFirchen]

18. No.

Roughly 8.7%.

1/5/16: 11,247.69
12/4/18: 12,221.98

[Hoyt]

19. DOW, S&P, NASDAQ, are as displayed above.

[OilemFirchen]

20. The NYA is the NYSE Composite index.

Note that it peaked in January. The trend this year has been down:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/nya/charts


On edit: Peak corrected for this year.

[Hoyt]

21. Know what it is, but no one has used it in this thread.

[OilemFirchen]

22. That's a shame.

Relying on one index (the DOW in this case) is a recipe for disaster.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. The Dow is an artificial index anyway

They are constantly throwing off poor performing stocks and replacing them.

[Hoyt]

25. I relied on Dow, SP500, NASDAQ, the most commonly quoted indices.

[OilemFirchen]

26. That's up to you, of course.

If your investments are atypically tied to these indices, you're doing okay. If your market predictions are, and you've gambled long... not so much.

The NYSE Composite (^NYA)[ is a stock market index covering all common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange, including American depositary receipts, real estate investment trusts, tracking stocks, and foreign listings. It includes corporations in each of the ten industries listed in the Industry Classification Benchmark. It uses free-float market cap weighting.

Over 2,000 stocks are covered in the index, of which over 1,600 are from United States corporations and over 360 are foreign listings; however foreign companies are very prevalent among the largest companies in the index: of the 100 companies in the index having the largest market capitalization (and thus the largest impact on the index), more than half (55) are non-U.S. issues.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator

[Hoyt]

27. Every major financial new organization disagrees, but use what you like

Heck, use the Bitcoin Index if you want.

[OilemFirchen]

28. That's a shame too. But they don't disagree on my fundamental assertion.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211510414#post7

Likely the best leading indicator is the bond yield curve, because treasuries are safe havens.

Reuters: Dollar weak as U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion sparks recession fears
MarketWatch: Brace for a 15% plunge in S&P 500 next year if the Treasury yield curve fully inverts
CNBC: Treasury yields continue slide with traders wary of ‘curve inversion’
Bloomberg: The U.S. Yield Curve Just Inverted. That’s Huge.

[Staph]

5. I had a meeting with my investments guy today.

He (and his corporation, who shall remain nameless) say that the signs point to a recession as early as next summer or as late as the beginning of 2020. We are meeting again in February to move my investments out of stocks and into safer bonds.

[.99center]

23. I take it the $1.5 trillion tax cut for the wealthy

Isn't going to be trickling down anytime soon?