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2016 Postmortem

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LynneSin

(95,337 posts)
Thu Jan 3, 2013, 12:59 PM Jan 2013

2014 Senate races - got some tough ones for the Democrats [View all]

2008 was a magical year for the democrats thanks to the very long and powerful coattails of Barack Obama. We added to the house and got damn close to a filibuster proof senate (58 dem senators + 2 indies that caucus'd with us). So alot of those names are coming up for re-election in 2014 and there could be some tough races ESPECIALLY since there will be no coattails of any length from Barack Obama.

Here's some of the toughest re-elections for 2014

Alaska: Mark Beglich was really just the right candidate at the right time in this race. He was running against indicted Ted Stevens who was extremely unpopular at the time in Alaska. But usually Alaska is pretty solidly red and I'm sure there are a slew of republicans including some Tea Partiers who would like to take back this seat for the red.

Arkansas: Mark Pryor is probably one of the most moderate democrats in the senate today. At one point he was living at that house owned by some religious lobbying group that was all senators including a few that ended up in a scandal. I forget the name of it. I think the only way he can win Arkansas is by staying as far right as possible but rumor has it Huckabee might run for Senate. To be honest, the only way I'd even care about this race is if it was close to a 50-50 tie in the senate.

Iowa: If Tom Harkins runs we keep the seat. He's popular in Iowa. But the guy is 75 years old so if he retires this seat could be a real tight one.

Louisianna: Mary Landieus tenure in this seat is always a challenge each election but she manages to get the win each time. I know she pisses off alot of non-LA democrats because she's in bed with Big Oil but inside the state that's the only way she can keep winning. Since Katrina the state has moved towards red, mainly because alot of democrats were displaced and never returned. Right republican candidate could make this a tight one.

New Jersey: Obviously this is Lautenberg's last term since the guy is 92 and only came out of retirement to step in for a disgraced democratic senator who stepped down (I forget the name). I know NJ seems like a solid blue state but republican Chris Christie is pretty popular in the state and there are a few big names that could run for senate like Rep Jon Runyon, whose district was hard hit by Sandy (and South NJ remembers him as a popular coach with the Philadelphia Eagles). I doubt Christie would run - he wants presidency but I know any GOP who runs for senate will have the Christie name behind them and that could be a major boost. Best candidate to go up against him would be popular NJ Mayor Cory Booker.

North Carolina: Another senate seat where we kinda lucked out thanks to Elizabeth Dole (r) crazy campaign ad against Kay Hagan (d) and of course Obama's very long coattails. Obama won NC back in 2008 and Kay Hagan took out incumbant Dole, but 2012 saw NC go republican again and you have to think that the republicans might find this a key pick up in 2014.

South Dakota: Both of the Dakotas seem extremely red and yet somehow we manage to win senate seats in these states. Tim Johnson is up for his 3rd run to keep the seat and it's always a tight race whomever the republican is running.

West Virginia: This is the same as Iowa. If 77 year old Jay Rockefeller runs again the seat will stay democrat but if he retires it could be fair game. West Virginia has pretty much is turning red; however, as long as the democrats stay both moderate AND coal-industry friendly they stand a chance to win.

As for Republicans up for re-election they are all in states that are pretty solidly red, so this may be a race where we will have to fight to hold on to the senate and that's always harder during midterm elections. I would love to see more minorities run for office. Sure the democrats can say we have more women, LGBT, non-Christians amongst our ranks in the senate but Republicans can now say they have the only African-American in the senate when SC Governor appointed Tim Scott to fill out the remaining term for retiring Jim DeMint. I know Cory Booker is interested in running but seriously why aren't more African Americans running for senate? I'd love to see Deval Patrick take over John Kerry' empty senate seat but I doubt he would run when he's still governor of the state.

Your thoughts and comments?




http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Senate/Maps/Dec20-s.html

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