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Thu Jan 3, 2013, 11:59 AM

2014 Senate races - got some tough ones for the Democrats

2008 was a magical year for the democrats thanks to the very long and powerful coattails of Barack Obama. We added to the house and got damn close to a filibuster proof senate (58 dem senators + 2 indies that caucus'd with us). So alot of those names are coming up for re-election in 2014 and there could be some tough races ESPECIALLY since there will be no coattails of any length from Barack Obama.

Here's some of the toughest re-elections for 2014

Alaska: Mark Beglich was really just the right candidate at the right time in this race. He was running against indicted Ted Stevens who was extremely unpopular at the time in Alaska. But usually Alaska is pretty solidly red and I'm sure there are a slew of republicans including some Tea Partiers who would like to take back this seat for the red.

Arkansas: Mark Pryor is probably one of the most moderate democrats in the senate today. At one point he was living at that house owned by some religious lobbying group that was all senators including a few that ended up in a scandal. I forget the name of it. I think the only way he can win Arkansas is by staying as far right as possible but rumor has it Huckabee might run for Senate. To be honest, the only way I'd even care about this race is if it was close to a 50-50 tie in the senate.

Iowa: If Tom Harkins runs we keep the seat. He's popular in Iowa. But the guy is 75 years old so if he retires this seat could be a real tight one.

Louisianna: Mary Landieus tenure in this seat is always a challenge each election but she manages to get the win each time. I know she pisses off alot of non-LA democrats because she's in bed with Big Oil but inside the state that's the only way she can keep winning. Since Katrina the state has moved towards red, mainly because alot of democrats were displaced and never returned. Right republican candidate could make this a tight one.

New Jersey: Obviously this is Lautenberg's last term since the guy is 92 and only came out of retirement to step in for a disgraced democratic senator who stepped down (I forget the name). I know NJ seems like a solid blue state but republican Chris Christie is pretty popular in the state and there are a few big names that could run for senate like Rep Jon Runyon, whose district was hard hit by Sandy (and South NJ remembers him as a popular coach with the Philadelphia Eagles). I doubt Christie would run - he wants presidency but I know any GOP who runs for senate will have the Christie name behind them and that could be a major boost. Best candidate to go up against him would be popular NJ Mayor Cory Booker.

North Carolina: Another senate seat where we kinda lucked out thanks to Elizabeth Dole (r) crazy campaign ad against Kay Hagan (d) and of course Obama's very long coattails. Obama won NC back in 2008 and Kay Hagan took out incumbant Dole, but 2012 saw NC go republican again and you have to think that the republicans might find this a key pick up in 2014.

South Dakota: Both of the Dakotas seem extremely red and yet somehow we manage to win senate seats in these states. Tim Johnson is up for his 3rd run to keep the seat and it's always a tight race whomever the republican is running.

West Virginia: This is the same as Iowa. If 77 year old Jay Rockefeller runs again the seat will stay democrat but if he retires it could be fair game. West Virginia has pretty much is turning red; however, as long as the democrats stay both moderate AND coal-industry friendly they stand a chance to win.

As for Republicans up for re-election they are all in states that are pretty solidly red, so this may be a race where we will have to fight to hold on to the senate and that's always harder during midterm elections. I would love to see more minorities run for office. Sure the democrats can say we have more women, LGBT, non-Christians amongst our ranks in the senate but Republicans can now say they have the only African-American in the senate when SC Governor appointed Tim Scott to fill out the remaining term for retiring Jim DeMint. I know Cory Booker is interested in running but seriously why aren't more African Americans running for senate? I'd love to see Deval Patrick take over John Kerry' empty senate seat but I doubt he would run when he's still governor of the state.

Your thoughts and comments?




http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Senate/Maps/Dec20-s.html

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Reply 2014 Senate races - got some tough ones for the Democrats (Original post)
LynneSin Jan 2013 OP
dsc Jan 2013 #1
Proud Public Servant Jan 2013 #2
LynneSin Jan 2013 #5
dsc Jan 2013 #3
thatsrightimirish Jan 2013 #4
NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #6
Proud Liberal Dem Jan 2013 #7
LynneSin Jan 2013 #8
Proud Liberal Dem Jan 2013 #9
JonSatler Jan 2013 #10
NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #11

Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Jan 3, 2013, 12:09 PM

1. I disagree about Rockefeller

I think he is in deep trouble due to his comments about coal among other things. I think we might actually be better off with a new candidate (at least electorally).

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Jan 3, 2013, 12:10 PM

2. You could also add Baucus

Another Blue Dog Dem in a red state. Of the 7 Dems running in states Romney won, Baucus probably has the best chance of hanging on, but he's still in a somewhat unfavorable position. I also think you're overestimating Rockefeller's chances in WV, given how red that state now is (one of only 2 or three where every county went for Romney); if he runs again, he's in for the fight of his career.

On the plus side, I'd bet on Collins being primaried from the right and losing, which would allow us to pick up Maine. But we're still in a precarious position with regard to maintaining control of teh Senate.

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Response to Proud Public Servant (Reply #2)

Thu Jan 3, 2013, 01:07 PM

5. I never thought about that with Collins

She is the most moderate of republicans and a sure win IF she is the candidate in the general election. But the Tea Party could give us a gift by running a primary candidate against her. Is Maine and Open or Closed Primary? If it's opened then I think alot of independents and moderate dem voters might help Collins hang on but closed could spell doom.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Jan 3, 2013, 12:13 PM

3. I actually like Hagan's chances

Our entire government has just turned GOP after the 2012 election and already the 'moderate' McCrory is showing us what a crock his moderate campaign was. They won't be able to help themselves. They will go over board and give Hagan a great foil to run against.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Jan 3, 2013, 01:00 PM

4. We won't know anything until the Republicans nominate their candidates.

They are capable of anything.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Jan 3, 2013, 09:33 PM

6. Red State Democratic held US Senate Seats up for grabs.

1)AK(Begich-D)- Republican challengers will either be Treadwell-R or Miller-R, Begich-D will be in a similar situation as Tester-MT and/or Heitkamp-ND.
2)AR(Pryor-D)- Huckabee-R is the only R that could give Pryor-D a race but he is focused on 2016-WH.
3)LA(Landrieu-D)- Jindal-R is the only R that could give Landrieu-D a race but he is focused on 2016-WH. Landry-R is Todd Akin part 2.
4)MT(Baucus-D)- Hill-R and Rehberg-R lost in 2012, Daines-R is likely to target Tester-D in 2018.
5)NC(Hagan-D)- Ellmers-R or McHenry-R will make it easy for Hagan to win.
6)SD(Johnson-D)- Rounds-R is the strongest Republican. Democrats need to make sure Johnson-D runs again, Herseth Sandlin-D is a plan B -1D
7)WV(Rockefeller-D)-Capito-R is the strongest Republican. Democrats need to make sure Rockefeller runs again, Tennant-D is plan B -2D
Purple State Democratic held seats up for grabs in 2014.
1)CO(Udall-D)- Tipton-R,Gardner-R,Lamborn-R,and/or Coffman-R are too conservative to win statewide.
2)IA(Harkin-D)- Harkin-D easily wins against King-R.
3)MI(Levin-D)-seat becomes competitive if Levin-D retires but Democrats will hold on to the seat. Peters-D or Schauer-D
4)MN(Franken-D)-likely GOP challenger is Bachmann-R.
5)NH(Shaheen-D)- defeats Sununu-R,LaMontagne-R,Bass-R,or Guinta-R.
6)NM(Udall-D)- Solid/Likely Democratic.
7)OR(Merkley-D)- Smith-R or Walden-R are unlikely to run. Solid/Likely Democratic.
8)VA(Warner-D- Solid/Likely Democratic.
Democrats will hold onto
DE(Coons-D),HI(Schatz-D),IL(Durbin-D or Simon-D),MA(Markey-D),NJ(Booker-D or Pallone-D),and RI(Reed-D).

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Fri Jan 4, 2013, 08:43 PM

7. Not to sound overconfident/cocky

but the 2012 Democratic Senate races were supposed to be a difficult year for Democrats and we NETTED two Senate seats, mostly because teabaggers won their primaries, one of which displaced a long-standing Republican incumbent who would've been favored to win (Lugar) and then, predictably, self-destructed. If the teabaggers are able to win more primaries in 2014, we may emerge the same (or better) AGAIN. So far, there have been two consecutive elections where the teabaggers managed to cost the Republican almost certain victories. So, please proceed, teabaggers!


The only real thing that we have to make sure to do is GOTV!

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #7)

Fri Jan 4, 2013, 08:49 PM

8. I agree but some of those states were traditionally democratic states

Like Massachusetts.

All the states up for re-election are pretty much solid redstates outside of Maine. If Collins survives her primary then she'll win Maine again.

Plus it's an off-year. Obama has strong coattails that helped us win many of those races. So we need to try and find that momentum again and not slack off like we did in 2010

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Response to LynneSin (Reply #8)

Fri Jan 4, 2013, 08:58 PM

9. Turnout will certainly be key

IMHO we've got to figure that magic combination for making OUR voters willing to crawl over broken glass and walk over hot coals to vote for Democrats/against Republicans at ALL levels of government (i.e. local, state, federal). We can't just show up for Presidential elections every 4 years and expect to be able to fundamentally change things and help maintain that change. President Obama got a lot of stuff done during the first two years and then since we slacked off in 2010, President Obama's ability to get anything substantial done legislatively has been severely hampered and, what's worse, we're spending more time constantly trying to deal with a series of manufactured crises instigated by the teabaggers. Plus, we lost the ability to have significant influence over redistricting and now we'll have to work twice as hard to pry some of those Republicans out of their safely gerrymandered districts.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Sat Jan 5, 2013, 09:27 PM

10. What about Michigan?

Carl Levin will be 80 in 2014 and said he might not run. The state seems to be turning red but might vote Democratic after their most recent Governor turned out to be a huge disappointment.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Sun Jan 6, 2013, 12:11 AM

11. 2014 US Senate Election.

Republican held seats.
Republicans hold onto AL(Sessions-R),GA(Chambliss-R),ID(Risch-R),KS(Roberts-R),KY(McConnell-R),ME(Collins-R),MS(Cochran-R),NE(Johanns-R),OK(Inhofe-R),SC(Graham-R),SC(Scott-R),TN(Alexander-R),TX(Cornyn-R),and WY(Enzi-R)
MS(Cochran-R) is a possible retiree, If Cochran decides to retire or faces a strong Teaparty primary challenge- Democrats could recruit current State AG Jim Hood or former State AG Mike Moore. Republican nominee will be either Nunnele,Harper,or Palazzo.
ME(Collins-R) loses in a primary to a LePage endorsed candidate. Democrats will support the Independent in the general election with the anticipation he or she will caucus with the Senate Democrats.
GA(Chambliss-R) and SC(Graham-R) are vulnerable to Teaparty primary challenges but Democrats don't have any viable top tier candidates in those states. GA-Democrats could convince Barrow to pull a Donnelly.
KY(McConnell-R) will face a top tier general election opponent, Republican money will be going to KY instead of potential vulnerable Democratic held seats in MI(Open) or NC(Hagan-D). -4R

Democratic held seats.
Democrats hold onto CO(Udall-D),DE(Coons-D),HI(Schatz-D),IL(Durbin-D),IA(Harkin-D),MN(Franken-D),NH(Shaheen-D),NJ(Booker-D),NM(Udall-D),OR(Merkley-D),RI(Reed-D),and VA(Warner-D)
Red State Democratic held US Senate seats that will remain in the Democratic column are AR(Pryor-D) and MT(Baucus-D)- Republicans don't have any viable candidates in those states. The Republican nominees in LA(Landrieu-D) and NC(Hagan-D) will be Akin part 2. In SD(assuming Johnson-D retires) Rounds-R defeats Herseth-D, and WV(assuming Rockefeller-D retires) Capito-R vs Tenant-D race will be a Tossup. In AK(Begich-D survives a tough challenge against either Miller-R or Treadwell-R).
In MI(assuming Levin-D retires) Gretchen Whitmer-D vs John Engler-R. Democratic nominee wins. ie 2012 WI(Baldwin-D vs Thompson-R).
In MA(assuming Brown-R win the 2013 Special Election)- Democrats recruit either US Attorney Carmen Ortiz or Newton Mayor Setti Warren or Deval runs.

The 2014 repeat of 2012 is Democrats picking up MA(Brown-R),ME(Open-R),and MS(Open-R). They narrowly come up short in KY(McConnell-R) and GA(Open-R).
Democrats lose SD(Open-D),narrowly hold onto WV(Open-D) and AK(Begich-D).

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