Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report saying Va. early voting looks bad for Dems [View all]

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

Anyone have a different take to talk me off the ledge?

Dave Wasserman ?@Redistrict
@stevesingiser @HotlineJosh If Obama localities had only been 52.9% of all votes instead of 55.8% in '08, O would've won by 4 points, not 7.

15m Dave Wasserman ?@Redistrict
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Fairfax County (61% Obama) is DOWN 4.0% vs. this point in '08, even though statewide, early voting UP 9.4%

24m Dave Wasserman ?@Redistrict
Huge drop-offs in Richmond, Arlington & C'ville indicative of understandable (yet troubling for Ds) decline in Af-Am, yuppie & college vote

26m Dave Wasserman ?@Redistrict
In VA's McCain localities, early vote = 95,744 (vs 80,881 at this pt in '08). VA's Obama localities = 152,084 (vs 145,673 in '08)

29m Dave Wasserman ?@Redistrict
3 of 4 top DECREASES in VA early voting vs '08: 1) Richmond City (-16.8%) 3) Arlington County (-14.0%) 4) Charlottesville City (-10.5%)

33m Dave Wasserman ?@Redistrict
Overall, early vote up 9.4% across the board in VA vs this point in '08, but this 14% disparity very troubling #s for @BarackObama

36m Dave Wasserman ?@Redistrict
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won: http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/sbe_csv/STATS/

41m Dave Wasserman ?@Redistrict
While Democrats may be slightly overperforming GOP in VA Early Vote, advantage isn't nearly what it was in '08; it's down sharply...

42m Dave Wasserman ?@Redistrict
Catalist (Dem data firm) new memo: "The abs vote data from VA show a closer race than OH, but a distinct Dem edge." < very clever spin

1h Dave Wasserman ?@Redistrict
Forthcoming this PM: an analysis of Early Voting stats I've crunched so far, beginning with the closest prez state: Virginia

https://twitter.com/Redistrict