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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:17 PM

Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report saying Va. early voting looks bad for Dems

Anyone have a different take to talk me off the ledge?

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
@stevesingiser @HotlineJosh If Obama localities had only been 52.9% of all votes instead of 55.8% in '08, O would've won by 4 points, not 7.

15m Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Fairfax County (61% Obama) is DOWN 4.0% vs. this point in '08, even though statewide, early voting UP 9.4%

24m Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Huge drop-offs in Richmond, Arlington & C'ville indicative of understandable (yet troubling for Ds) decline in Af-Am, yuppie & college vote

26m Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
In VA's McCain localities, early vote = 95,744 (vs 80,881 at this pt in '08). VA's Obama localities = 152,084 (vs 145,673 in '08)

29m Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
3 of 4 top DECREASES in VA early voting vs '08: 1) Richmond City (-16.8%) 3) Arlington County (-14.0%) 4) Charlottesville City (-10.5%)

33m Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Overall, early vote up 9.4% across the board in VA vs this point in '08, but this 14% disparity very troubling #s for @BarackObama

36m Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won: http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/sbe_csv/STATS/

41m Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
While Democrats may be slightly overperforming GOP in VA Early Vote, advantage isn't nearly what it was in '08; it's down sharply...

42m Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Catalist (Dem data firm) new memo: "The abs vote data from VA show a closer race than OH, but a distinct Dem edge." < very clever spin

1h Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Forthcoming this PM: an analysis of Early Voting stats I've crunched so far, beginning with the closest prez state: Virginia

https://twitter.com/Redistrict

36 replies, 3661 views

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Reply Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report saying Va. early voting looks bad for Dems (Original post)
Adenoid_Hynkel Oct 2012 OP
Awknid Oct 2012 #1
Adenoid_Hynkel Oct 2012 #7
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #16
onenote Oct 2012 #18
all american girl Oct 2012 #31
Gin Oct 2012 #14
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #2
RBInMaine Oct 2012 #27
MSMITH33156 Oct 2012 #3
LiberalLoner Oct 2012 #4
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #11
LiberalLoner Oct 2012 #19
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #5
MSMITH33156 Oct 2012 #8
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #20
MSMITH33156 Oct 2012 #26
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #6
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #15
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #22
smorkingapple Oct 2012 #9
Jennicut Oct 2012 #10
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #13
WallaceRitchie Oct 2012 #12
beac Oct 2012 #17
DCBob Oct 2012 #25
budkin Oct 2012 #21
ItsTheMediaStupid Oct 2012 #23
BelieveMe3 Oct 2012 #24
RBInMaine Oct 2012 #29
yellowcanine Oct 2012 #30
kwolf68 Oct 2012 #28
AspenRose Oct 2012 #35
WallaceRitchie Oct 2012 #32
BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #33
JiminyJominy Oct 2012 #34
Jennicut Oct 2012 #36

Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:20 PM

1. Early voting

In Virginia? I wasn't aware we had early voting in VA.

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Response to Awknid (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:24 PM

7. ah - appears he's calling absentee voting early voting

Election Day is less than six weeks away, but early voting already has begun. Virginia law permits certain voters to cast absentee ballots as early as 45 days ahead of an election. This year, it began Sept. 21.

Among those eligible to vote absentee: military service members and citizens overseas, students and others out of town on Election Day, those medically unable to get to the polls, election officials or political operatives who are otherwise occupied, some emergency service personnel and people with work or religious conflicts.

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/09/early-voting-period-virginia-has-begun

And it appears those eligible to do so are groups that tend to lean GOP.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:32 PM

16. Big Military presence in VA, so this makes sense. Nothing to panic over.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:39 PM

18. Hard to know for sure, but this certainly doesn't look like a positive

"Early" absentee voting is no more difficult this year than it was 4 years ago and the fact that early absentee voting is up in areas that went for McCain by a bigger margin than in areas that went for Obama. That could reflect an enthusiasm gap. I will note the following: in my neighborhood, which is part of a Northern Virginia precinct that went overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008, there are far more Romney/Ryan signs than there were McCain signs, while the number of Obama signs appears to be about the same (I distributed Obama signs in the neighborhood last time so I have a pretty good idea of how many were posted). Signs aren't a scientific measure and one can't rule out the possibility that the increase in early voting in McCain areas is coming from Obama voters in those areas, but the fact that early absentee voting is down in portions of Northern Virginia is troubling.

(I should add that I have my application to early absentee vote filled out but haven't gone over to the County office to cast my vote yet; I think I voted early in 2008 around November 1.)

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:04 PM

31. I just got my form today to get an absintee ballot...

But I have no reason, so I will be voting in person. So maybe the slow returns is because people don't have them yet....just a thought.

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Response to Awknid (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:30 PM

14. Me either

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:22 PM

2. If you are on a ledge that is your problem!

Romney can take VA, NC, FL, and CO. He's lost OH, NV, IA, and WI. The campaign has made that clear. So I could care less about the rest. It would be nice, yes but this race is about the math and Romney can not win. Less than 2wks. Not going to happen.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:48 PM

27. But we want to WIN in CO, FL, VA, and NC and we CAN and WILL do all we CAN to WIN !

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:22 PM

3. There is no early voting in VA

I live in VA and it sucks. No early voting, and pretty tough criteria for getting an absentee ballot. Almost all voting in VA occurs on election day.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:22 PM

4. Wait my understanding of va voting laws

You can only vote early (absentee ballot) if you have a medical reason not to be able to vote, or a few other reasons like that. You can't just vote early just because you want to.

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Response to LiberalLoner (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:28 PM

11. There is in-person absentee voting...

Here are contingencies and what is required to bring to the facility:

http://vote.barackobama.com/en/VA/early-voting/

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:39 PM

19. Thank you. I'll be voting on Election Day myself...

And I don't care if I have to stand in line for 12 hours, nothing but death will stop me from voting for PBO! And even if I'm dead I will still vote if I can figure out how to press the buttons as a ghost!

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:23 PM

5. Many of us here in the MD and DC area have been working hard in VA

There are a lot of voters that we encountered that didn't know a thing about early voting. These numbers do not surprise me. Many people are waiting until election day. The early voting facilities are too inconvenient for a lot of these voters.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:25 PM

8. You can't early vote in VA.

You can only vote via absentee with a reason.

http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/absenteevoting.html

Either that, or you vote in person.

There is something called "in person absentee", but again, it's not the same thing as early voting. You have to fit a criteria listed in the link I posted. You can't just show up and vote early.

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Response to MSMITH33156 (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:40 PM

20. See my post upthread. I correct myself. That's what we are telling voters.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #20)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:47 PM

26. Ah, good

I live in VA, thought I was going crazy wondering how I somehow didn't notice early voting, I would have voted already.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:23 PM

6. Virginia is icing, not part of our firewall.

And, honestly, not all OFA state operations are created equal.

NC, OH, IA are probably the best. VA and CO are less effective.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:31 PM

15. You said: VA and CO are less effective.

YOU ARE WRONG!!

People from all over Maryland and DC are working their asses off in VA. This is insulting to us!

OFA offices are incredibly organized. Their organization has been nothing short of outstanding!

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:42 PM

22. Okay, they enjoy less of an advantage compared to the Republican efforts.

It could be that the state Republican operations in Virginia and Colorado are just way better than in Iowa and Ohio.

But this seems to indicate that the ground game isn't going to be much of an advantage in every state. In some states, we need every bit of OFA's capability just to keep pace with the Republicans.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:25 PM

9. Check Steve Singiser twitter

https://twitter.com/stevesingiser

Not seeing the OMG here. Obama localities 64.3% of EV in 2008. 61.4% of EV today. A net diff of 5.8%.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:28 PM

10. It is absentee voting.

Repubs traditionally usually do well in absentee voting. Don't have statistics on 2008 though. Most voters in VA will vote on election day though.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:30 PM

13. They typically do even better in VA due to the military presence there.

We are working HARD in VA to get people to the polls on Election Day.

For those who tell us that they can't make it on Election Day, due to work or care for an incapacitated person, they can vote early in-person:

http://vote.barackobama.com/en/VA/early-voting/

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:29 PM

12. So?

No basis for panic. Just because more ballots are being cast early in certain locales, it doesn't mean they favor one candidate or the other. That is an assumption. Assume nothing. A long way to go in this election. We'll only know for certain on November 6.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:33 PM

17. Dave Wasserman is clearly a moron.

As others have explained above, we don't have "early voting" only absentee and "absentee in person" (where you vote on a machine at the registrar's office.)

Those stats are MEANINGLESS.

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Response to beac (Reply #17)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:46 PM

25. +1

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:41 PM

21. It's all about Ohio

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:43 PM

23. More Obfuscation

Just another media putz trying to make Romnesia look good.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:45 PM

24. we don't need VA

we need Ohio. VA can turn red and we are fine.

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Response to BelieveMe3 (Reply #24)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:50 PM

29. We are campaigning like hell in VA and CAN win there and SHOULD try like hell to do so.

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Response to BelieveMe3 (Reply #24)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:56 PM

30. We need all the EVs we can get. What if we don't get Ohio?

We need to keep trying hard anywhere there is a reasonable chance, and VA is one such place.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:49 PM

28. As someone living in Va


I would LOVE to get Virginia in the O column, but I just don't have a good feeling about it. I hope I am wrong and I hope Ohio, Wisky and others come through for us. The main thing is re-electing the President, even if Va Dems could feel better on election night.

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Response to kwolf68 (Reply #28)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:52 PM

35. I agree with you.

NoVA,here.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:08 PM

32. Virgil Goode

Don't forget that a decent percentage of supposed Romney voters will actually be casting ballots for former Virginia Congressman Virgil Goode or Gary Johnson. They could siphon off 5% of Romney's votes... and most likely in former McCain "localities".

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:17 PM

33. Screw VA, Focus on OH, WI, IA, and MN!!

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:24 PM

34. SmokingApple's Post

got overlooked by many of you.

Virginia was won by 6.3% in 08. as of right now we are showing our numbers down by 5.5% or so. All this means is that this state is A LOT CLOSER this time but still very winnable. not sure why some of you are so quick to write off the win here. defeatist mentality.

we are less than 2 weeks away from election day...time to harden our backbone and not get deflated by every piece of somewhat negative news. the VA result is still very much up in the air, and we can still win that state if we keep the pressure on.

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Response to JiminyJominy (Reply #34)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:56 PM

36. VA is actually closer then FL or NC in terms of the polling.

On RCP it is a tie, on Pollster it is Obama ahead by less then a point. Pollster for Huffpo includes all polls done on VA so it is probably more accurate. VA is close but not impossible.

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