HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Politics 2014 (Forum) » Nate Silver: Romney bounc... » Reply #53
Introducing Discussionist: A new forum by the creators of DU

Reply #53


Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #45)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:44 PM

53. You haven't been following the model properly

The 98% chance of winning was the NOW CAST. It meant that if an election was held at the time when Obama was ahead nationally and ahead in every swing state, he would be guaranteed to win.

The NOV 6 CAST is different. It's a projection of how things will be on Election Day, not today. The NOV 6 CAST did not show 98% for Obama. It showed about 85% for Obama going into the Presidential Debate because as mentioned above, Obama was ahead almost everywhere.

And why is it now approaching a dead heat? Well, that's because Obama COLLAPSED. He went from a National lead of several points and huge leads in most of the swing states to falling behind Nationally, and losing ground in all the states, and falling behind in some of them (eg. Florida).

Does this explain it?

Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 80 replies Author Time Post
budkin Oct 2012 OP
cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #1
TroyD Oct 2012 #2
fugop Oct 2012 #10
qanda Oct 2012 #3
fugop Oct 2012 #6
msongs Oct 2012 #43
qanda Oct 2012 #68
scheming daemons Oct 2012 #4
Arkana Oct 2012 #7
MFM008 Oct 2012 #18
still_one Oct 2012 #14
JustAnotherGen Oct 2012 #5
still_one Oct 2012 #8
fascisthunter Oct 2012 #9
Laurian Oct 2012 #11
Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #15
maryellen99 Oct 2012 #20
Laurian Oct 2012 #38
Blaukraut Oct 2012 #12
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #28
TroyD Oct 2012 #13
still_one Oct 2012 #19
JI7 Oct 2012 #22
still_one Oct 2012 #44
TroyD Oct 2012 #50
still_one Oct 2012 #71
JI7 Oct 2012 #21
TroyD Oct 2012 #29
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #16
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #27
TroyD Oct 2012 #33
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #36
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #39
TroyD Oct 2012 #42
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #46
JI7 Oct 2012 #17
Tippy Oct 2012 #23
Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #24
Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #25
TroyD Oct 2012 #41
still_one Oct 2012 #26
aletier_v Oct 2012 #30
TroyD Oct 2012 #40
Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #45
LineLineLineLineReply You haven't been following the model properly
TroyD Oct 2012 #53
Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #65
fujiyama Oct 2012 #74
blueknight Oct 2012 #31
TroyD Oct 2012 #35
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #51
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #62
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #32
JackN415 Oct 2012 #34
watercolors Oct 2012 #37
graham4anything Oct 2012 #47
TroyD Oct 2012 #54
graham4anything Oct 2012 #61
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #63
speedoo Oct 2012 #48
TroyD Oct 2012 #56
helpisontheway Oct 2012 #49
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #67
cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #52
TroyD Oct 2012 #57
Azathoth Oct 2012 #55
TroyD Oct 2012 #58
raven42 Oct 2012 #59
TroyD Oct 2012 #60
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #64
TroyD Oct 2012 #66
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #69
bkkyosemite Oct 2012 #70
allrevvedup Oct 2012 #72
magical thyme Oct 2012 #73
theinquisitivechad Oct 2012 #75
mzmolly Oct 2012 #76
RandySF Oct 2012 #77
Tx4obama Oct 2012 #78
zach1845 Oct 2012 #79
Loge23 Oct 2012 #80
Please login to view edit histories.