2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Nate Silver: Romney bounce not receding and making gains in swing states [View all]TroyD
(4,551 posts)The 98% chance of winning was the NOW CAST. It meant that if an election was held at the time when Obama was ahead nationally and ahead in every swing state, he would be guaranteed to win.
The NOV 6 CAST is different. It's a projection of how things will be on Election Day, not today. The NOV 6 CAST did not show 98% for Obama. It showed about 85% for Obama going into the Presidential Debate because as mentioned above, Obama was ahead almost everywhere.
And why is it now approaching a dead heat? Well, that's because Obama COLLAPSED. He went from a National lead of several points and huge leads in most of the swing states to falling behind Nationally, and losing ground in all the states, and falling behind in some of them (eg. Florida).
Does this explain it?