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Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:01 PM

Nate Silver: Romney bounce not receding and making gains in swing states

God this is making me pull out my hair!!! This better reverse course after the next debate!

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-11-obamas-swing-state-firewall-has-brittle-foundation/#more-35900

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Reply Nate Silver: Romney bounce not receding and making gains in swing states (Original post)
budkin Oct 2012 OP
cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #1
TroyD Oct 2012 #2
fugop Oct 2012 #10
qanda Oct 2012 #3
fugop Oct 2012 #6
msongs Oct 2012 #43
qanda Oct 2012 #68
scheming daemons Oct 2012 #4
Arkana Oct 2012 #7
MFM008 Oct 2012 #18
still_one Oct 2012 #14
JustAnotherGen Oct 2012 #5
still_one Oct 2012 #8
fascisthunter Oct 2012 #9
Laurian Oct 2012 #11
Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #15
maryellen99 Oct 2012 #20
Laurian Oct 2012 #38
Blaukraut Oct 2012 #12
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #28
TroyD Oct 2012 #13
still_one Oct 2012 #19
JI7 Oct 2012 #22
still_one Oct 2012 #44
TroyD Oct 2012 #50
still_one Oct 2012 #71
JI7 Oct 2012 #21
TroyD Oct 2012 #29
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #16
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #27
TroyD Oct 2012 #33
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #36
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #39
TroyD Oct 2012 #42
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #46
JI7 Oct 2012 #17
Tippy Oct 2012 #23
Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #24
Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #25
TroyD Oct 2012 #41
still_one Oct 2012 #26
aletier_v Oct 2012 #30
TroyD Oct 2012 #40
Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #45
TroyD Oct 2012 #53
Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #65
fujiyama Oct 2012 #74
blueknight Oct 2012 #31
TroyD Oct 2012 #35
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #51
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #62
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #32
JackN415 Oct 2012 #34
watercolors Oct 2012 #37
graham4anything Oct 2012 #47
TroyD Oct 2012 #54
graham4anything Oct 2012 #61
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #63
speedoo Oct 2012 #48
TroyD Oct 2012 #56
helpisontheway Oct 2012 #49
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #67
cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #52
TroyD Oct 2012 #57
Azathoth Oct 2012 #55
TroyD Oct 2012 #58
raven42 Oct 2012 #59
TroyD Oct 2012 #60
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #64
TroyD Oct 2012 #66
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #69
bkkyosemite Oct 2012 #70
allrevvedup Oct 2012 #72
magical thyme Oct 2012 #73
theinquisitivechad Oct 2012 #75
mzmolly Oct 2012 #76
RandySF Oct 2012 #77
Tx4obama Oct 2012 #78
zach1845 Oct 2012 #79
Loge23 Oct 2012 #80

Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:04 PM

1. Complete bullshit! It won't last...

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:06 PM

2. Obama has to do his part now. He has to win the next 2 debates.

He has to bring back some of the voters who have gone to Romney. Voters are waiting right now. They are watching and waiting to see if Obama is able to beat Romney.

Romney had the night of his life last week. Now Obama needs 1 or 2 of those!

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Response to TroyD (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:12 PM

10. Romney had the WEEK of his life

Thanks to our sensationalizing media. It wasn't that one night ... It was the whole circle-jerking week that followed.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:07 PM

3. Unfortunately, the media has its marching orders

And Obama has been getting what seems like nothing but negative press since the debate. It's sickening.

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Response to qanda (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:08 PM

6. Yep it's going to be all about getting out the vote

People's stupidity never fails to amaze me.

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Response to qanda (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:32 PM

43. the media did not speak for obama during his debate "experience" nt

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Response to msongs (Reply #43)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:34 PM

68. It wasn't *that* bad

But the panning of it has been relentless. There's no reason to still be talking about it over a week later.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:07 PM

4. Pre-debate article by Nate.... we'll see what the weekend brings

I think we'll be pleasantly surprised by the weekend polling.

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Response to scheming daemons (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:09 PM

7. Did he write this before the debate?

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Response to Arkana (Reply #7)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:16 PM

18. he hasnt updated for October 12 yet.

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Response to scheming daemons (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:15 PM

14. I agree, women are not going to take the republican war against them lightly. Ryan made it very

Clear that the election is about the supreme court, social security, war and women's rights

That information is being registered loud and clear

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:08 PM

5. Not going to react

Not even to Nate Silver. They are up, they are down. There is panic, there is calm.

Simply not reacting to polls anymore.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:10 PM

8. If it doesn't, it means one of three things, people don't really care about the supreme court, women

Rights, social security, Medicare, endless wars, or an improving economy in spite of repuke efforts to destroy it

However, I do not buy that. I believe by Monday you will see it moving back, and as long as the President continues where Biden left off by Friday we should be doing quite well

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:10 PM

9. hahahaha.... okeedokee smoky

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:13 PM

11. Gawd, we really need another bombshell like the 47% tape to break through to all the

non-thinkers who are willing to vote for Romney just because he's not Obama. They are not seeing the true character of this phony. I don't know if I can take another three weeks of this.

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Response to Laurian (Reply #11)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:16 PM

15. But would the media give a shit?

 

I'm seeing the same thing I saw in 2003 when they cheered us to war with Iraq without a hint of objectivity. The only difference is, now they're cheerleading this shit for brains to the WH.

I'm about to lose my shit over it, frankly. I can't stand people who are tone deaf and when those same tone deaf people have the mic it moves into the realm of being criminally negligent.

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Response to Laurian (Reply #11)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:18 PM

20. I'm starting to think that its not just the debates

I think a lot of people are birthers plus I wonder how much damage that 2016 movie has done?

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Response to maryellen99 (Reply #20)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:28 PM

38. Lots of people don't watch the debates, they just listen to the analysis. That's why

the media bias can be devastating. How do you counteract the MSM bullhorn?

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:14 PM

12. Nate Silver is not Miss Cleo

He has the same information we have. He adds up polls and averages them out, and then extrapolates probabilities. Today's tracking polls (other than gallup) are showing that Romney's bounce has leveled out, and Obama's numbers are improving. So the bleeding has stopped. Again, though. This election was never going to be a landslide for Obama, and we will see final state and national polls bear that out. Neither is Romney's surge endless, or he'd be at 60-40 by election day - totally unrealistic. So settle down and GOTV.

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Response to Blaukraut (Reply #12)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:22 PM

28. It is past that point

First, you are right about drilling down and GOTV.

But, I was very certain after the debate that it would spike and recede.

The post debate rush has pretty much cleared and if anything Romney having a virtual tie, at least seems to have set.

I fear that what we saw was that up until their debate, people just were not tuned in, and the debate itself and framing from the media pushed a lot of people who were not enthused by Romney, but lean to the right to him.

I don't think they are going back.

We went in a week from having BO at about a 52 to 47 national win and carrying the senate to some pickups and closing the gap in the House pretty good to HOPING for BO to get a national win and having had such a big electoral margin to cross the finish line in the 280 range.

Romney has been SO bad, and the relentless stream of utter bullshit these two are putting forward it so obvious. If people are on board with it this late in the game, they are on board with it.



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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:15 PM

13. Obama didn't fight back

And that can be fatal in politics.

You have to be aggressive and you have to be ruthless. If you aren't willing to do those things, particularly when dealing with a pathological liar like Mitt Romney, you won't survive.

Ted Kennedy was at risk of losing his Senate seat in 1994. Mitt was ahead of him in the polls and was on track to win. It was only in the final weeks of the campaign that Ted overtook Romney and beat him.

He did that because he FOUGHT BACK. He exposed Romney as MULTIPLE CHOICE.

The key question is, can Obama do the same?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #13)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:17 PM

19. Yes he will. Things will start to change by Monday in our favor. The issues have never been

Clearer

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Response to still_one (Reply #19)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:19 PM

22. the issues have been clear for a long time now. accept that some people don't care about them

and will do whatever they "feel' like at the moment rather than based on issues.

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Response to JI7 (Reply #22)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:32 PM

44. Many people are not critical thinkers. The double talk from the republicans has confused those

People

You and I see through it, but they really have to be reminded what is at stake

Bush double talked about the issues, especially women's rights, and for the most part the Dems and the media let him get away with it.

Biden called them on it, along with other issues. Ryan tried to double talk and bs about most of it, but he could not do that with social security, Medicare, abortion, and the supreme court

Biden would not let them

That is whymthe media is criticizing him on everything but the issues, because they know the differences were made clearer than they ever had been

What The President did was a disaster, when he said that romney's position, and his position on social security were the same was idiotic, and caused a lot of damage

Biden undid a lot of that damage, is is now up to the President, and he will do it

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Response to still_one (Reply #44)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:37 PM

50. 'What The President did was a disaster'

What The President did was a disaster, when he said that romney's position, and his position on social security were the same was idiotic, and caused a lot of damage


I couldn't believe it when he said that. He seemed to forget he was in a debate and was dealing with a dangerous man like Romney.

This is why I was a Hillary supporter in the 2008 primaries. I worried then, as I worry now, that Obama is not willing to be ruthless with the Republicans.

In Jodi Kantor's book, "The Obamas" she talks about how Obama has a deep desire to be liked by the Republicans and to find common ground with them. He needs to watch that FDR speech from 1936 to realize how dangerous that is.

Don't tell people that you are similar to the Republicans - make the CONTRAST. Otherwise why should people vote for a Democrat?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #50)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 08:02 PM

71. We agree. I believe the lesson has been learned the hard way. I also believe Hillary or Biden

Both would be excellent nominees in 2016

You were not the only one who could not believe what he said about social security

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Response to TroyD (Reply #13)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:18 PM

21. oh please, the whores are not giving Biden the Credit they did Romney

Gore was aggressive and attacked for it. the whores called it a tie yesterday . while they have been going on for days Propping up Romney.

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Response to JI7 (Reply #21)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:23 PM

29. CNN called it a Tie

That is correct. And we know about what FOX is like.

But CBS and other networks showed a win for Biden, as do many of the online polls and much of the commentary and reaction on Twitter.

Twitter Metrics that I've seen reported today show that Biden won.

But this is not about the V.P. debate. This is about the Presidential debate. That's what matters.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:16 PM

16. just a 1.1% margin of victory now

im surprised the 7.8 number seems completely meaningless.

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Response to mgcgulfcoast (Reply #16)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:22 PM

27. I never thought 7.8 would move polls

The GOP made sure of that with it's conspiracy theories. Moreover if previous months' job numbers did not move voters, why would good numbers ?

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Response to mgcgulfcoast (Reply #16)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:25 PM

33. 'just a 1.1% margin of victory now'

What number are you referring to?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #33)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:27 PM

36. The jobs report

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Response to TroyD (Reply #33)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:29 PM

39. nates nov 6 projection

its in the link. i think its 50.0-48.9

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Response to mgcgulfcoast (Reply #39)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:32 PM

42. Do you mean the Popular Vote?

Or the chance of winning?

What is the current chance of Obama winning?

60%? 65%?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #42)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:35 PM

46. popular vote

he also has moved florida and colorado to lean romney and dropped virginia to a 52.7% chance of an obama win.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:16 PM

17. We Really need to focus on the Ground Game, the Media has been very Negatve Towards Obama

and is propping up Romney even more than they did Bush.

i think a lot in the meda identify with Romney. consider the media these days don't really focus on real news and are very superficial . many of them relate to people like Romney and can't stand the "little people". they probably also want another disaster to occur to get them ratings.

low info sheep types will easily vote based on what the whores are pushing.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:21 PM

23. The numbers in that poll were from Wed...the day of the debate...

And you do not want to use any numbers from Mason/Dixon They are pro Republican....

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:21 PM

24. Then his ass should put his numbers at 50/50 and be done with it

I'm getting tired of this shit.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:21 PM

25. Here:

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #25)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:31 PM

41. Thanks, yes

I am very familiar with Allan Lichtman and his keys.

He was also on The David Pakman Show earlier this year.

I know Lichtman has a good record.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:21 PM

26. I'm sorry but silver referring to the mason Dixon polling as reliable is wrong. They are always

Reliable toward republicans

The issues were never clearer last night, and that will show results by Monday

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:23 PM

30. Fool me once, shame on Nate but fool me twice and shame on y'all who believe him :)

How do we know Nate isn't a republican?

That 98% for Obama should caused a lot of overconfidence.

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Response to aletier_v (Reply #30)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:29 PM

40. 'How do we know Nate isn't a republican?'

This sort of attack is like something the Republicans would say.

First of all, I think Nate Silver actually used to BE a pollster for Obama several years ago.

Second of all, you're acting like Nate Silver is inventing the polls or like Nate Silver is responsible for Obama's bad debate.

Nate is just doing his job. It's not his fault that Obama's numbers went down. What is he supposed to do? Ignore them?

What's funny is that the Republicans think he's a Democratic shill and people here attack him for being a Republican.

Let's not fall into the same pattern as the Republicans in attacking the pollsters (unless they are obviously biased like Gravis etc. ).

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Response to TroyD (Reply #40)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:34 PM

45. What the hell kind of guy puts out a model that gives Obama a 98% chance of winning

and then a few days later he says it's a toss-up and a dead heat.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #45)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:44 PM

53. You haven't been following the model properly

The 98% chance of winning was the NOW CAST. It meant that if an election was held at the time when Obama was ahead nationally and ahead in every swing state, he would be guaranteed to win.

The NOV 6 CAST is different. It's a projection of how things will be on Election Day, not today. The NOV 6 CAST did not show 98% for Obama. It showed about 85% for Obama going into the Presidential Debate because as mentioned above, Obama was ahead almost everywhere.

And why is it now approaching a dead heat? Well, that's because Obama COLLAPSED. He went from a National lead of several points and huge leads in most of the swing states to falling behind Nationally, and losing ground in all the states, and falling behind in some of them (eg. Florida).

Does this explain it?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #53)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:14 PM

65. I understand the concept of the now cast

You don't have to explain it to me. The point is he's saying NOW it's a dead heat only a few days later. Doesn't give him much cred IMO.

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Response to aletier_v (Reply #30)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 09:41 PM

74. Nate started off in '08 on Daily Kos, about the least republican site (next to DU) on the web

I believe he was an Obama supporter. He started getting a lot of publicity after either IA or NH (not sure exactly when, but it was during the primaries). He started hitting it big later on during the general election and I remember him being featured in a few magazines.

Since having joined with the NYT, I'll agree with many that his commentary is sort of blah. He had a cool, independent website in '08, with interesting contributors. His presentation feels a little too slick and the site feels more neutered now. But I'm not certain exactly how Nate has changed his methodology since then. Maybe others more familiar with his models can chime in.

Maybe it's also the political environment. The polarization feels worse every year, and it feels worse now than even '04. Bush's extreme policies were the beginning. The Tea Party's ascent has simply made the country ungovernable.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:24 PM

31. i;ve been trying to tell you all

how bad the debate hurt our side, everyone told me i was wrong. not only did the pres lose the debate, but he seemed un-interested, bored, not up to the challenge. It makes me sick, but it is what it is.

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Response to blueknight (Reply #31)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:27 PM

35. I said the same thing

And I was also attacked at the time.

It's not easy admitting when our side was beaten so badly. Bottom line is that Obama let Romney humiliate him in front of America. That cost Obama credibility. At TPM, Obama used to have a huge lead in the 'Strong Leader' category or whatever they call it. Now he is barely ahead of Romney.

Romney came across as strong and masculine. That's what Americans like. Other Western countries don't fall for this stuff, but Americans do. Image matters a great deal.

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Response to blueknight (Reply #31)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:38 PM

51. ^^^ Truth

All this three dimensional chess talk was delusional thinking. I also believed the jobs numbers wouldn't move anything. The Prez effed up big time and he has two chances to make it right or he's a one-termer.

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #51)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:09 PM

62. LOL Onoz thread. Here's an idea

Donate
Make a call
Volunteer
GOTV

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:24 PM

32. Silver is no guru he looks at the same polls we do and tends to

take them at face value.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:26 PM

34. It's stabilizing on Intrade. Don't worry, It is what it is... will be a big win.

 

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:28 PM

37. I feel polls are pretty much a lot of BS!

Don't put a lot of stock into them.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:35 PM

47. that's what happens when the troops get demoralized

 

a glass half empty soon is empty

depression spreads

optimism grows

seeds of disent


people just couldn't keep their mouths shut, had to give advice about what went wrong

instead of seeing the brilliance of letting Mitt shoot his load and later fire blanks

jees, as the late great Harry Chapin said when someone yelled out "Banana's"
he said a good concert builds like sex builds
you don't climax and then get to the good stuff

the rope a dope is working

and the final knockout is 11/6

did everyone think it would be handed to us on Bush's silver platter?

btw-where is one, just one person who has switched sides.
take away everything and there is NO person who has switched sides.

and if the demoralization of Obama means he has been to the bottom, then the only way to go is up.

Hey Joe-refill my glass, and let's put this one away

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #47)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:47 PM

54. Could you translate that into English please?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #54)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:07 PM

61. demoralization is a tool of the enemy. Think positive not negative. Negativity kills hope and all

 

or as someone said last week

debbie downers and sad sams sink ships

look at the other side-
Ryan got his ass kicked

NOT ONE REPUBLICAN in public or on a board posting was whining that Ryan lost.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

they found a sliver of something and said they won.

as Paul Simon might have said "negativity like a cancer grows"(to paraphrase his line in S.O.S.

You don't need to kick Mittens ass in a meaningless debate a month before election

You need to win the election on election day

and the old cliche "loose lips sink ships"

still applies.

Think Positive.

Vince Lombardi didn't say awwwwwwww the polls suck when he won Super Bowl 1 & 2
Joe Willie Namath didn't say awwwwwwwwwwww the polls suck in 1969 when he won Super Bowl 3

and remember

a winner does what a loser won't.
Did you think Mittens was going to give up and slink off under a rock somewhere?
Did you think Ryan was going to disappear

Think positive.

and demoralization and demoralization of the troops is a long time weapon used in local, state, national, and international politics

To think negative is what they want and have planned to do.
Demoralization leads to apathetic voters.

Whereas motivational positiveness leads to more voters for ones side

To win- ONE PUTS THEIR BEST FACE AND GO FORWARD, even when the chips are down.
one can whine and lose
or smile and win.

we are almost there.
We don't need to kick Mitts ass in debate 2 or 3. (After all Gore and Kerry won all 3 debates and spin lost it. It is evident that debates don't bring victory for democrats anymore, no matter how big the win, so ignore the debates, and get to the important part

and remember-polls pick a subsection of voters to question

WHEREAS EARLY VOTERS ARE A DEFINITE DONE VOTE.
(not a percentage, or chance, but an actual vote.

And if the stories about Ohio and early voting are true, Mittens CAN NOT win the election without Ohio. Because any small other chance would mean Mitt turned the tide, and if Mitt did so he would not lose Ohio, but he is losing Ohio. Therefore the small amount of other states will not suddenly turn his way. Advantage Obama, game set and match and winner Obama.

Thinking one wins, increases the chance of winning.

Mittens coming back is as likely as Goldwater, Mondale and Dukakis all thinking they would.

And in a revenge of 2000, Thank God the electoral college is still here.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #54)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:11 PM

63. Stop being a whiny doom gloom

PITA and make a difference instead. That's the abridged version, expletives deleted.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:36 PM

48. Nate's numbers are flawed because of Gravis Marketing.

His state data for Colorado, NC and Ohio are skewed rethug because of Gravis Marketing polls which are probably fraudulent.

Has anyone brought Grantcart's work on Gravis Marketing to Nate's attention?

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Response to speedoo (Reply #48)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:51 PM

56. We have to stop making excuses

Of course Gravis is skewed, and so is ARG for that matter.

I've sent messages to Nate about this, and I'm sure other people have too. That would change the numbers somewhat, but it still ignores the fundamental issue here:

Romney had a GAME CHANGER. He went from being a nearly sure loser to giving himself a good shot of winning. In one night he knocked Obama flat and re-set the entire race.

That's why we're seeing such massive changes in the polls.

Now having said that, as long as Obama remains ahead in Ohio, he's still in the game. And as long as the Obama internal polls continue to show signs of stability that's good too.

But we can't blame all of this on Gravis. They are just taking advantage of a situation that Obama created.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:37 PM

49. I think Obama just cost us the

Election. All because he did not want to fight back. if Romney's numbers were temporary they would have dropped once the job numbers were added in. I kerp saying a few more days. i kept telling myself that maybe once that awful Friday drops off the trackers. But from the title it appears Romney is still polling high. I feel like crying but I know it will not do any good. Probably should take a break from DU for the weekend so I can stop worrying about something that I can't control.

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Response to helpisontheway (Reply #49)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:33 PM

67. What the flying f*ck are going on about?

Seriously, there are already polls today with him ahead. There were the battleground polls from EARLIER this week (released near midnight surprise suprise) with him still holding leads. So cut the crap. If you really, REALLY feel like it might be lost this is the time to show your mettle. This is the time to show who you are and what defines you. Do you crumple and cry or do you take a stand and make use evey last breath to make a difference to get just ONE MORE VOTE. Many have given their lives for less.

Think of your username for God's Sake.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:38 PM

52. Please go out and read the Rand poll...

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Response to cheriemedium59 (Reply #52)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:51 PM

57. And what about the Rand poll?

I'm aware it shows Obama ahead by about 2 points or so today.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:49 PM

55. First impressions are the most important

The Romney bounce isn't going to recede on its own. Biden's performance last night probably stopped any further hemorrhaging, but the damage already done is largely irreparable. Obama's surrender last week gave folks who were just tuning in to the race a clear initial impression that many are going to carry through to election day. Those who were not enthusiastic about voting for him and were looking for a viable alternative now have one. We would need something truly game-changing to move the race back to where it was in September, and barring another 47% video splashing across the front pages, the only place that could happen is in the debates. And we won't get a blowout debate victory for the simple reason that Romney isn't going to show up and and fall asleep on stage for 90 minutes the way Obama did.

We're going to have to accept that the days of "80% chance of victory" are gone for good. This thing is tooth-and-nails right down to Nov. 6. The sooner we move from denial into a realist fight-for-our-lives mentality, the better.

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Response to Azathoth (Reply #55)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:54 PM

58. I agree with you

I've been cautioning against overconfidence all week, but some people like posting threads chuckling away at how Romney is on the way down to a major crash and that Obama will rope a dope him etc.

The first debate is usually the most watched. And the second is going to be the townhall which may not provide the opportunity for a direct confrontation rematch that many people want.

Obama needs to do well there, but he also needs to win the foreign policy debate and make that his strength again and not concede anything there to Romney.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:54 PM

59. I'll admit I'm not feeling too good

about the way these polls are trending right now. But I still think this is a very winnable election for President Obama. If he has at least a couple of decent outings in the last two debates he can still pull this out. But it's going to be close--like 2000 and 2004. The big concern I have is the effects of Citizens United. All of these SuperPacs are pouring money into the swing states in the final few weeks, and the Democrats are going to be outspent big time. As gullible as much of the electorate has become (e.g., the same idiots who will decide who to vote for based on how a candidate "performs" in a debate, no matter their actual positions on the issues) I don't have much confidence in their ability to see through the corporate/right-wing propaganda.

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Response to raven42 (Reply #59)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:57 PM

60. We should stay positive

Obama still has the advantage in Ohio and the Electoral College, and a good chance of winning.

But I do hope this is a lesson to those who thought Obama was going to mop the floor with Romney.

Hard work every day is important. No more complacency and overconfidence.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #60)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:13 PM

64. We would be more positive if you stopped posting!nt

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #64)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:21 PM

66. Malarkey!

I post lots of good stuff here and many people have told me so.

I'm just one of several people here who is saying to stop underestimating Romney. It's dangerous.

Today I have posted many positive threads, polls & issues that demonstrate that how we can beat Romney. Take a look at them.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #66)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:36 PM

69. You even write like Mitt Romney

Here are my program directives! I have been of aid!

You need to work harder on your positivity matrix.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 07:37 PM

70. I woke up this morning called my sister and said

walk me through this I'm bummed.

What bothers me is that Obama was what 330's EV's and now down to 289. Why? Because of one debate he went down so much in the polls. I feel the fix is in. The people who own the voting machines with no paper trail are repubs, Romney is so confident. The polls had Obama definitely winning and all polls were winning high. It's as if they were waiting for an excuse any excuse to start the down turn on Obama's high numbers to make it look legit.

Maybe I'm worrying for nothing but I do have that intuition type of feeling those that hate Obama are doing something to fix the election right before our eyes. The freepers on my FB don't notice at all that the two R's are lying even when I put up a video of the lies right out of their mouths...ceases to amaze me.

Please don't stone me. Maybe tomorrow I'll feel better.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 08:07 PM

72. Has Nate been writing those wingnut e-mails

 

my GOP relations used to send? I think I recognize the style.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 08:22 PM

73. Nate Silver has taken not only to using Gravis, a very disreputable polling firm with joke

for bios and with serious outliers for results, but apparently is weighting them more heavily in state polls than other, more reputable polls. It makes no sense.

It's really weird. I'm wondering if, having pushed Obama's odds up around 80%, the debate performance scared him and he's now overcompensating on the downside to try to appear right no matter what happens.

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Response to magical thyme (Reply #73)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:11 PM

75. THIS.

Magical thyme, you are a magical herb.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:19 PM

76. Where did you find that headline?



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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:22 PM

77. It is what it is.

Nate Silver knows what he's doing and he doesn't weight every poll equally. The race is indeed closing but this isn't the first time. Same thing happened to Reagan in 1984 and Bush in 2004.

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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:24 PM

78. The debate was only 24 hours ago. New polls will be out Monday and Romney's bounce will be GONE! nt


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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:26 PM

79. hopefully better next week

 

however I am doubtfull.
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
New ohio poll comes out tomorrow.
Ohio looks pretty darn close on the first night of our poll there. We'll do more calls tomorrow and have results in the evening
Expand

4h PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

@mattsharrington will release Ohio numbers tomorrow
View conversation

Also they showed a tie in battleground debates of who won the VP debate and
Ohio is way off pace on early voting then the 2008 election.(granted we have still have the lead but repubs narrowed the gap dramatically.

I guess we cant expect a bounce even a small one if the VP debate was perceived as a tie especially by those in the battleground states.


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Response to budkin (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:37 PM

80. We're getting killed, deal with it.

Denying the situation we're in is not going to change it.
We are losing this election as it stands right now. Crazy? Of course.
But an aging actor who played a President in the role of his lifetime was elected twice in this country.

Whatever the reason: racism, ignorance, image over substance, etc. - here we are. In a country just barely recovering from the reckless and treasonous actions of the right wing, the electorate is about to choose a ultra-rich white guy with a faux-intellectual reactionary running mate, both beholden to the lunatic fringe, over the effectively hobbled sitting President - the land of the 'fraid and the home of the (brain) freeze. Make no mistake - we'll be f&^%ed for the rest of many of our lives.

Maybe it's time to realize - it's not a great country, it's a stupid one and it's controlled by idiots. Whatever, but wake up - we are losing.

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