2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver: Romney bounce not receding and making gains in swing states
God this is making me pull out my hair!!! This better reverse course after the next debate!
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-11-obamas-swing-state-firewall-has-brittle-foundation/#more-35900
cheriemedium59
(212 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)He has to bring back some of the voters who have gone to Romney. Voters are waiting right now. They are watching and waiting to see if Obama is able to beat Romney.
Romney had the night of his life last week. Now Obama needs 1 or 2 of those!
fugop
(1,828 posts)Thanks to our sensationalizing media. It wasn't that one night ... It was the whole circle-jerking week that followed.
qanda
(10,422 posts)And Obama has been getting what seems like nothing but negative press since the debate. It's sickening.
fugop
(1,828 posts)People's stupidity never fails to amaze me.
msongs
(67,129 posts)qanda
(10,422 posts)But the panning of it has been relentless. There's no reason to still be talking about it over a week later.
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)I think we'll be pleasantly surprised by the weekend polling.
Arkana
(24,347 posts)MFM008
(19,764 posts)still_one
(91,807 posts)Clear that the election is about the supreme court, social security, war and women's rights
That information is being registered loud and clear
JustAnotherGen
(31,631 posts)Not even to Nate Silver. They are up, they are down. There is panic, there is calm.
Simply not reacting to polls anymore.
still_one
(91,807 posts)Rights, social security, Medicare, endless wars, or an improving economy in spite of repuke efforts to destroy it
However, I do not buy that. I believe by Monday you will see it moving back, and as long as the President continues where Biden left off by Friday we should be doing quite well
fascisthunter
(29,381 posts)Laurian
(2,593 posts)non-thinkers who are willing to vote for Romney just because he's not Obama. They are not seeing the true character of this phony. I don't know if I can take another three weeks of this.
Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)I'm seeing the same thing I saw in 2003 when they cheered us to war with Iraq without a hint of objectivity. The only difference is, now they're cheerleading this shit for brains to the WH.
I'm about to lose my shit over it, frankly. I can't stand people who are tone deaf and when those same tone deaf people have the mic it moves into the realm of being criminally negligent.
maryellen99
(3,778 posts)I think a lot of people are birthers plus I wonder how much damage that 2016 movie has done?
Laurian
(2,593 posts)the media bias can be devastating. How do you counteract the MSM bullhorn?
Blaukraut
(5,688 posts)He has the same information we have. He adds up polls and averages them out, and then extrapolates probabilities. Today's tracking polls (other than gallup) are showing that Romney's bounce has leveled out, and Obama's numbers are improving. So the bleeding has stopped. Again, though. This election was never going to be a landslide for Obama, and we will see final state and national polls bear that out. Neither is Romney's surge endless, or he'd be at 60-40 by election day - totally unrealistic. So settle down and GOTV.
Cosmocat
(14,535 posts)First, you are right about drilling down and GOTV.
But, I was very certain after the debate that it would spike and recede.
The post debate rush has pretty much cleared and if anything Romney having a virtual tie, at least seems to have set.
I fear that what we saw was that up until their debate, people just were not tuned in, and the debate itself and framing from the media pushed a lot of people who were not enthused by Romney, but lean to the right to him.
I don't think they are going back.
We went in a week from having BO at about a 52 to 47 national win and carrying the senate to some pickups and closing the gap in the House pretty good to HOPING for BO to get a national win and having had such a big electoral margin to cross the finish line in the 280 range.
Romney has been SO bad, and the relentless stream of utter bullshit these two are putting forward it so obvious. If people are on board with it this late in the game, they are on board with it.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)And that can be fatal in politics.
You have to be aggressive and you have to be ruthless. If you aren't willing to do those things, particularly when dealing with a pathological liar like Mitt Romney, you won't survive.
Ted Kennedy was at risk of losing his Senate seat in 1994. Mitt was ahead of him in the polls and was on track to win. It was only in the final weeks of the campaign that Ted overtook Romney and beat him.
He did that because he FOUGHT BACK. He exposed Romney as MULTIPLE CHOICE.
The key question is, can Obama do the same?
still_one
(91,807 posts)Clearer
JI7
(89,151 posts)and will do whatever they "feel' like at the moment rather than based on issues.
still_one
(91,807 posts)People
You and I see through it, but they really have to be reminded what is at stake
Bush double talked about the issues, especially women's rights, and for the most part the Dems and the media let him get away with it.
Biden called them on it, along with other issues. Ryan tried to double talk and bs about most of it, but he could not do that with social security, Medicare, abortion, and the supreme court
Biden would not let them
That is whymthe media is criticizing him on everything but the issues, because they know the differences were made clearer than they ever had been
What The President did was a disaster, when he said that romney's position, and his position on social security were the same was idiotic, and caused a lot of damage
Biden undid a lot of that damage, is is now up to the President, and he will do it
TroyD
(4,551 posts)I couldn't believe it when he said that. He seemed to forget he was in a debate and was dealing with a dangerous man like Romney.
This is why I was a Hillary supporter in the 2008 primaries. I worried then, as I worry now, that Obama is not willing to be ruthless with the Republicans.
In Jodi Kantor's book, "The Obamas" she talks about how Obama has a deep desire to be liked by the Republicans and to find common ground with them. He needs to watch that FDR speech from 1936 to realize how dangerous that is.
Don't tell people that you are similar to the Republicans - make the CONTRAST. Otherwise why should people vote for a Democrat?
still_one
(91,807 posts)Both would be excellent nominees in 2016
You were not the only one who could not believe what he said about social security
JI7
(89,151 posts)Gore was aggressive and attacked for it. the whores called it a tie yesterday . while they have been going on for days Propping up Romney.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)That is correct. And we know about what FOX is like.
But CBS and other networks showed a win for Biden, as do many of the online polls and much of the commentary and reaction on Twitter.
Twitter Metrics that I've seen reported today show that Biden won.
But this is not about the V.P. debate. This is about the Presidential debate. That's what matters.
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)im surprised the 7.8 number seems completely meaningless.
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)The GOP made sure of that with it's conspiracy theories. Moreover if previous months' job numbers did not move voters, why would good numbers ?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)What number are you referring to?
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)its in the link. i think its 50.0-48.9
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Or the chance of winning?
What is the current chance of Obama winning?
60%? 65%?
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)he also has moved florida and colorado to lean romney and dropped virginia to a 52.7% chance of an obama win.
JI7
(89,151 posts)and is propping up Romney even more than they did Bush.
i think a lot in the meda identify with Romney. consider the media these days don't really focus on real news and are very superficial . many of them relate to people like Romney and can't stand the "little people". they probably also want another disaster to occur to get them ratings.
low info sheep types will easily vote based on what the whores are pushing.
Tippy
(4,610 posts)And you do not want to use any numbers from Mason/Dixon They are pro Republican....
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)I'm getting tired of this shit.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)I am very familiar with Allan Lichtman and his keys.
He was also on The David Pakman Show earlier this year.
I know Lichtman has a good record.
still_one
(91,807 posts)Reliable toward republicans
The issues were never clearer last night, and that will show results by Monday
aletier_v
(1,773 posts)How do we know Nate isn't a republican?
That 98% for Obama should caused a lot of overconfidence.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)This sort of attack is like something the Republicans would say.
First of all, I think Nate Silver actually used to BE a pollster for Obama several years ago.
Second of all, you're acting like Nate Silver is inventing the polls or like Nate Silver is responsible for Obama's bad debate.
Nate is just doing his job. It's not his fault that Obama's numbers went down. What is he supposed to do? Ignore them?
What's funny is that the Republicans think he's a Democratic shill and people here attack him for being a Republican.
Let's not fall into the same pattern as the Republicans in attacking the pollsters (unless they are obviously biased like Gravis etc. ).
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)and then a few days later he says it's a toss-up and a dead heat.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)The 98% chance of winning was the NOW CAST. It meant that if an election was held at the time when Obama was ahead nationally and ahead in every swing state, he would be guaranteed to win.
The NOV 6 CAST is different. It's a projection of how things will be on Election Day, not today. The NOV 6 CAST did not show 98% for Obama. It showed about 85% for Obama going into the Presidential Debate because as mentioned above, Obama was ahead almost everywhere.
And why is it now approaching a dead heat? Well, that's because Obama COLLAPSED. He went from a National lead of several points and huge leads in most of the swing states to falling behind Nationally, and losing ground in all the states, and falling behind in some of them (eg. Florida).
Does this explain it?
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)You don't have to explain it to me. The point is he's saying NOW it's a dead heat only a few days later. Doesn't give him much cred IMO.
fujiyama
(15,185 posts)I believe he was an Obama supporter. He started getting a lot of publicity after either IA or NH (not sure exactly when, but it was during the primaries). He started hitting it big later on during the general election and I remember him being featured in a few magazines.
Since having joined with the NYT, I'll agree with many that his commentary is sort of blah. He had a cool, independent website in '08, with interesting contributors. His presentation feels a little too slick and the site feels more neutered now. But I'm not certain exactly how Nate has changed his methodology since then. Maybe others more familiar with his models can chime in.
Maybe it's also the political environment. The polarization feels worse every year, and it feels worse now than even '04. Bush's extreme policies were the beginning. The Tea Party's ascent has simply made the country ungovernable.
blueknight
(2,831 posts)how bad the debate hurt our side, everyone told me i was wrong. not only did the pres lose the debate, but he seemed un-interested, bored, not up to the challenge. It makes me sick, but it is what it is.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)And I was also attacked at the time.
It's not easy admitting when our side was beaten so badly. Bottom line is that Obama let Romney humiliate him in front of America. That cost Obama credibility. At TPM, Obama used to have a huge lead in the 'Strong Leader' category or whatever they call it. Now he is barely ahead of Romney.
Romney came across as strong and masculine. That's what Americans like. Other Western countries don't fall for this stuff, but Americans do. Image matters a great deal.
oswaldactedalone
(3,489 posts)All this three dimensional chess talk was delusional thinking. I also believed the jobs numbers wouldn't move anything. The Prez effed up big time and he has two chances to make it right or he's a one-termer.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)Donate
Make a call
Volunteer
GOTV
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)take them at face value.
JackN415
(924 posts)watercolors
(1,921 posts)Don't put a lot of stock into them.
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)a glass half empty soon is empty
depression spreads
optimism grows
seeds of disent
people just couldn't keep their mouths shut, had to give advice about what went wrong
instead of seeing the brilliance of letting Mitt shoot his load and later fire blanks
jees, as the late great Harry Chapin said when someone yelled out "Banana's"
he said a good concert builds like sex builds
you don't climax and then get to the good stuff
the rope a dope is working
and the final knockout is 11/6
did everyone think it would be handed to us on Bush's silver platter?
btw-where is one, just one person who has switched sides.
take away everything and there is NO person who has switched sides.
and if the demoralization of Obama means he has been to the bottom, then the only way to go is up.
Hey Joe-refill my glass, and let's put this one away
TroyD
(4,551 posts)graham4anything
(11,464 posts)or as someone said last week
debbie downers and sad sams sink ships
look at the other side-
Ryan got his ass kicked
NOT ONE REPUBLICAN in public or on a board posting was whining that Ryan lost.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
they found a sliver of something and said they won.
as Paul Simon might have said "negativity like a cancer grows" to paraphrase his line in S.O.S.
You don't need to kick Mittens ass in a meaningless debate a month before election
You need to win the election on election day
and the old cliche "loose lips sink ships"
still applies.
Think Positive.
Vince Lombardi didn't say awwwwwwww the polls suck when he won Super Bowl 1 & 2
Joe Willie Namath didn't say awwwwwwwwwwww the polls suck in 1969 when he won Super Bowl 3
and remember
a winner does what a loser won't.
Did you think Mittens was going to give up and slink off under a rock somewhere?
Did you think Ryan was going to disappear
Think positive.
and demoralization and demoralization of the troops is a long time weapon used in local, state, national, and international politics
To think negative is what they want and have planned to do.
Demoralization leads to apathetic voters.
Whereas motivational positiveness leads to more voters for ones side
To win- ONE PUTS THEIR BEST FACE AND GO FORWARD, even when the chips are down.
one can whine and lose
or smile and win.
we are almost there.
We don't need to kick Mitts ass in debate 2 or 3. (After all Gore and Kerry won all 3 debates and spin lost it. It is evident that debates don't bring victory for democrats anymore, no matter how big the win, so ignore the debates, and get to the important part
and remember-polls pick a subsection of voters to question
WHEREAS EARLY VOTERS ARE A DEFINITE DONE VOTE.
(not a percentage, or chance, but an actual vote.
And if the stories about Ohio and early voting are true, Mittens CAN NOT win the election without Ohio. Because any small other chance would mean Mitt turned the tide, and if Mitt did so he would not lose Ohio, but he is losing Ohio. Therefore the small amount of other states will not suddenly turn his way. Advantage Obama, game set and match and winner Obama.
Thinking one wins, increases the chance of winning.
Mittens coming back is as likely as Goldwater, Mondale and Dukakis all thinking they would.
And in a revenge of 2000, Thank God the electoral college is still here.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)PITA and make a difference instead. That's the abridged version, expletives deleted.
speedoo
(11,229 posts)His state data for Colorado, NC and Ohio are skewed rethug because of Gravis Marketing polls which are probably fraudulent.
Has anyone brought Grantcart's work on Gravis Marketing to Nate's attention?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Of course Gravis is skewed, and so is ARG for that matter.
I've sent messages to Nate about this, and I'm sure other people have too. That would change the numbers somewhat, but it still ignores the fundamental issue here:
Romney had a GAME CHANGER. He went from being a nearly sure loser to giving himself a good shot of winning. In one night he knocked Obama flat and re-set the entire race.
That's why we're seeing such massive changes in the polls.
Now having said that, as long as Obama remains ahead in Ohio, he's still in the game. And as long as the Obama internal polls continue to show signs of stability that's good too.
But we can't blame all of this on Gravis. They are just taking advantage of a situation that Obama created.
helpisontheway
(5,002 posts)Election. All because he did not want to fight back. if Romney's numbers were temporary they would have dropped once the job numbers were added in. I kerp saying a few more days. i kept telling myself that maybe once that awful Friday drops off the trackers. But from the title it appears Romney is still polling high. I feel like crying but I know it will not do any good. Probably should take a break from DU for the weekend so I can stop worrying about something that I can't control.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)Seriously, there are already polls today with him ahead. There were the battleground polls from EARLIER this week (released near midnight surprise suprise) with him still holding leads. So cut the crap. If you really, REALLY feel like it might be lost this is the time to show your mettle. This is the time to show who you are and what defines you. Do you crumple and cry or do you take a stand and make use evey last breath to make a difference to get just ONE MORE VOTE. Many have given their lives for less.
Think of your username for God's Sake.
cheriemedium59
(212 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)I'm aware it shows Obama ahead by about 2 points or so today.
Azathoth
(4,602 posts)The Romney bounce isn't going to recede on its own. Biden's performance last night probably stopped any further hemorrhaging, but the damage already done is largely irreparable. Obama's surrender last week gave folks who were just tuning in to the race a clear initial impression that many are going to carry through to election day. Those who were not enthusiastic about voting for him and were looking for a viable alternative now have one. We would need something truly game-changing to move the race back to where it was in September, and barring another 47% video splashing across the front pages, the only place that could happen is in the debates. And we won't get a blowout debate victory for the simple reason that Romney isn't going to show up and and fall asleep on stage for 90 minutes the way Obama did.
We're going to have to accept that the days of "80% chance of victory" are gone for good. This thing is tooth-and-nails right down to Nov. 6. The sooner we move from denial into a realist fight-for-our-lives mentality, the better.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)I've been cautioning against overconfidence all week, but some people like posting threads chuckling away at how Romney is on the way down to a major crash and that Obama will rope a dope him etc.
The first debate is usually the most watched. And the second is going to be the townhall which may not provide the opportunity for a direct confrontation rematch that many people want.
Obama needs to do well there, but he also needs to win the foreign policy debate and make that his strength again and not concede anything there to Romney.
raven42
(88 posts)about the way these polls are trending right now. But I still think this is a very winnable election for President Obama. If he has at least a couple of decent outings in the last two debates he can still pull this out. But it's going to be close--like 2000 and 2004. The big concern I have is the effects of Citizens United. All of these SuperPacs are pouring money into the swing states in the final few weeks, and the Democrats are going to be outspent big time. As gullible as much of the electorate has become (e.g., the same idiots who will decide who to vote for based on how a candidate "performs" in a debate, no matter their actual positions on the issues) I don't have much confidence in their ability to see through the corporate/right-wing propaganda.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Obama still has the advantage in Ohio and the Electoral College, and a good chance of winning.
But I do hope this is a lesson to those who thought Obama was going to mop the floor with Romney.
Hard work every day is important. No more complacency and overconfidence.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)I post lots of good stuff here and many people have told me so.
I'm just one of several people here who is saying to stop underestimating Romney. It's dangerous.
Today I have posted many positive threads, polls & issues that demonstrate that how we can beat Romney. Take a look at them.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)Here are my program directives! I have been of aid!
You need to work harder on your positivity matrix.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)walk me through this I'm bummed.
What bothers me is that Obama was what 330's EV's and now down to 289. Why? Because of one debate he went down so much in the polls. I feel the fix is in. The people who own the voting machines with no paper trail are repubs, Romney is so confident. The polls had Obama definitely winning and all polls were winning high. It's as if they were waiting for an excuse any excuse to start the down turn on Obama's high numbers to make it look legit.
Maybe I'm worrying for nothing but I do have that intuition type of feeling those that hate Obama are doing something to fix the election right before our eyes. The freepers on my FB don't notice at all that the two R's are lying even when I put up a video of the lies right out of their mouths...ceases to amaze me.
Please don't stone me. Maybe tomorrow I'll feel better.
allrevvedup
(408 posts)my GOP relations used to send? I think I recognize the style.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)for bios and with serious outliers for results, but apparently is weighting them more heavily in state polls than other, more reputable polls. It makes no sense.
It's really weird. I'm wondering if, having pushed Obama's odds up around 80%, the debate performance scared him and he's now overcompensating on the downside to try to appear right no matter what happens.
theinquisitivechad
(322 posts)Magical thyme, you are a magical herb.
mzmolly
(50,952 posts)RandySF
(57,196 posts)Nate Silver knows what he's doing and he doesn't weight every poll equally. The race is indeed closing but this isn't the first time. Same thing happened to Reagan in 1984 and Bush in 2004.
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)zach1845
(30 posts)however I am doubtfull.
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
New ohio poll comes out tomorrow.
Ohio looks pretty darn close on the first night of our poll there. We'll do more calls tomorrow and have results in the evening
Expand
4h PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
@mattsharrington will release Ohio numbers tomorrow
View conversation
Also they showed a tie in battleground debates of who won the VP debate and
Ohio is way off pace on early voting then the 2008 election.(granted we have still have the lead but repubs narrowed the gap dramatically.
I guess we cant expect a bounce even a small one if the VP debate was perceived as a tie especially by those in the battleground states.
Loge23
(3,922 posts)Denying the situation we're in is not going to change it.
We are losing this election as it stands right now. Crazy? Of course.
But an aging actor who played a President in the role of his lifetime was elected twice in this country.
Whatever the reason: racism, ignorance, image over substance, etc. - here we are. In a country just barely recovering from the reckless and treasonous actions of the right wing, the electorate is about to choose a ultra-rich white guy with a faux-intellectual reactionary running mate, both beholden to the lunatic fringe, over the effectively hobbled sitting President - the land of the 'fraid and the home of the (brain) freeze. Make no mistake - we'll be f&^%ed for the rest of many of our lives.
Maybe it's time to realize - it's not a great country, it's a stupid one and it's controlled by idiots. Whatever, but wake up - we are losing.