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Nate Silver: Romney bounce not receding and making gains in swing states (Original Post) budkin Oct 2012 OP
Complete bullshit! It won't last... cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #1
Obama has to do his part now. He has to win the next 2 debates. TroyD Oct 2012 #2
Romney had the WEEK of his life fugop Oct 2012 #10
Unfortunately, the media has its marching orders qanda Oct 2012 #3
Yep it's going to be all about getting out the vote fugop Oct 2012 #6
the media did not speak for obama during his debate "experience" nt msongs Oct 2012 #43
It wasn't *that* bad qanda Oct 2012 #68
Pre-debate article by Nate.... we'll see what the weekend brings scheming daemons Oct 2012 #4
Did he write this before the debate? Arkana Oct 2012 #7
he hasnt updated for October 12 yet. MFM008 Oct 2012 #18
I agree, women are not going to take the republican war against them lightly. Ryan made it very still_one Oct 2012 #14
Not going to react JustAnotherGen Oct 2012 #5
If it doesn't, it means one of three things, people don't really care about the supreme court, women still_one Oct 2012 #8
hahahaha.... okeedokee smoky fascisthunter Oct 2012 #9
Gawd, we really need another bombshell like the 47% tape to break through to all the Laurian Oct 2012 #11
But would the media give a shit? Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #15
I'm starting to think that its not just the debates maryellen99 Oct 2012 #20
Lots of people don't watch the debates, they just listen to the analysis. That's why Laurian Oct 2012 #38
Nate Silver is not Miss Cleo Blaukraut Oct 2012 #12
It is past that point Cosmocat Oct 2012 #28
Obama didn't fight back TroyD Oct 2012 #13
Yes he will. Things will start to change by Monday in our favor. The issues have never been still_one Oct 2012 #19
the issues have been clear for a long time now. accept that some people don't care about them JI7 Oct 2012 #22
Many people are not critical thinkers. The double talk from the republicans has confused those still_one Oct 2012 #44
'What The President did was a disaster' TroyD Oct 2012 #50
We agree. I believe the lesson has been learned the hard way. I also believe Hillary or Biden still_one Oct 2012 #71
oh please, the whores are not giving Biden the Credit they did Romney JI7 Oct 2012 #21
CNN called it a Tie TroyD Oct 2012 #29
just a 1.1% margin of victory now mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #16
I never thought 7.8 would move polls VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #27
'just a 1.1% margin of victory now' TroyD Oct 2012 #33
The jobs report VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #36
nates nov 6 projection mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #39
Do you mean the Popular Vote? TroyD Oct 2012 #42
popular vote mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #46
We Really need to focus on the Ground Game, the Media has been very Negatve Towards Obama JI7 Oct 2012 #17
The numbers in that poll were from Wed...the day of the debate... Tippy Oct 2012 #23
Then his ass should put his numbers at 50/50 and be done with it Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #24
Here: Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #25
Thanks, yes TroyD Oct 2012 #41
I'm sorry but silver referring to the mason Dixon polling as reliable is wrong. They are always still_one Oct 2012 #26
Fool me once, shame on Nate but fool me twice and shame on y'all who believe him :) aletier_v Oct 2012 #30
'How do we know Nate isn't a republican?' TroyD Oct 2012 #40
What the hell kind of guy puts out a model that gives Obama a 98% chance of winning Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #45
You haven't been following the model properly TroyD Oct 2012 #53
I understand the concept of the now cast Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #65
Nate started off in '08 on Daily Kos, about the least republican site (next to DU) on the web fujiyama Oct 2012 #74
i;ve been trying to tell you all blueknight Oct 2012 #31
I said the same thing TroyD Oct 2012 #35
^^^ Truth oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #51
LOL Onoz thread. Here's an idea Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #62
Silver is no guru he looks at the same polls we do and tends to WI_DEM Oct 2012 #32
It's stabilizing on Intrade. Don't worry, It is what it is... will be a big win. JackN415 Oct 2012 #34
I feel polls are pretty much a lot of BS! watercolors Oct 2012 #37
that's what happens when the troops get demoralized graham4anything Oct 2012 #47
Could you translate that into English please? TroyD Oct 2012 #54
demoralization is a tool of the enemy. Think positive not negative. Negativity kills hope and all graham4anything Oct 2012 #61
Stop being a whiny doom gloom Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #63
Nate's numbers are flawed because of Gravis Marketing. speedoo Oct 2012 #48
We have to stop making excuses TroyD Oct 2012 #56
I think Obama just cost us the helpisontheway Oct 2012 #49
What the flying f*ck are going on about? Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #67
Please go out and read the Rand poll... cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #52
And what about the Rand poll? TroyD Oct 2012 #57
First impressions are the most important Azathoth Oct 2012 #55
I agree with you TroyD Oct 2012 #58
I'll admit I'm not feeling too good raven42 Oct 2012 #59
We should stay positive TroyD Oct 2012 #60
We would be more positive if you stopped posting!nt Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #64
Malarkey! TroyD Oct 2012 #66
You even write like Mitt Romney Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #69
I woke up this morning called my sister and said bkkyosemite Oct 2012 #70
Has Nate been writing those wingnut e-mails allrevvedup Oct 2012 #72
Nate Silver has taken not only to using Gravis, a very disreputable polling firm with joke magical thyme Oct 2012 #73
THIS. theinquisitivechad Oct 2012 #75
Where did you find that headline? mzmolly Oct 2012 #76
It is what it is. RandySF Oct 2012 #77
The debate was only 24 hours ago. New polls will be out Monday and Romney's bounce will be GONE! nt Tx4obama Oct 2012 #78
hopefully better next week zach1845 Oct 2012 #79
We're getting killed, deal with it. Loge23 Oct 2012 #80

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
2. Obama has to do his part now. He has to win the next 2 debates.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:06 PM
Oct 2012

He has to bring back some of the voters who have gone to Romney. Voters are waiting right now. They are watching and waiting to see if Obama is able to beat Romney.

Romney had the night of his life last week. Now Obama needs 1 or 2 of those!

fugop

(1,828 posts)
10. Romney had the WEEK of his life
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:12 PM
Oct 2012

Thanks to our sensationalizing media. It wasn't that one night ... It was the whole circle-jerking week that followed.

qanda

(10,422 posts)
3. Unfortunately, the media has its marching orders
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:07 PM
Oct 2012

And Obama has been getting what seems like nothing but negative press since the debate. It's sickening.

fugop

(1,828 posts)
6. Yep it's going to be all about getting out the vote
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:08 PM
Oct 2012

People's stupidity never fails to amaze me.

qanda

(10,422 posts)
68. It wasn't *that* bad
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:34 PM
Oct 2012

But the panning of it has been relentless. There's no reason to still be talking about it over a week later.

 

scheming daemons

(25,487 posts)
4. Pre-debate article by Nate.... we'll see what the weekend brings
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:07 PM
Oct 2012

I think we'll be pleasantly surprised by the weekend polling.

still_one

(91,807 posts)
14. I agree, women are not going to take the republican war against them lightly. Ryan made it very
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:15 PM
Oct 2012

Clear that the election is about the supreme court, social security, war and women's rights

That information is being registered loud and clear

JustAnotherGen

(31,631 posts)
5. Not going to react
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:08 PM
Oct 2012

Not even to Nate Silver. They are up, they are down. There is panic, there is calm.

Simply not reacting to polls anymore.

still_one

(91,807 posts)
8. If it doesn't, it means one of three things, people don't really care about the supreme court, women
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:10 PM
Oct 2012

Rights, social security, Medicare, endless wars, or an improving economy in spite of repuke efforts to destroy it

However, I do not buy that. I believe by Monday you will see it moving back, and as long as the President continues where Biden left off by Friday we should be doing quite well

Laurian

(2,593 posts)
11. Gawd, we really need another bombshell like the 47% tape to break through to all the
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:13 PM
Oct 2012

non-thinkers who are willing to vote for Romney just because he's not Obama. They are not seeing the true character of this phony. I don't know if I can take another three weeks of this.

 

Floyd_Gondolli

(1,277 posts)
15. But would the media give a shit?
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:16 PM
Oct 2012

I'm seeing the same thing I saw in 2003 when they cheered us to war with Iraq without a hint of objectivity. The only difference is, now they're cheerleading this shit for brains to the WH.

I'm about to lose my shit over it, frankly. I can't stand people who are tone deaf and when those same tone deaf people have the mic it moves into the realm of being criminally negligent.

maryellen99

(3,778 posts)
20. I'm starting to think that its not just the debates
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:18 PM
Oct 2012

I think a lot of people are birthers plus I wonder how much damage that 2016 movie has done?

Laurian

(2,593 posts)
38. Lots of people don't watch the debates, they just listen to the analysis. That's why
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:28 PM
Oct 2012

the media bias can be devastating. How do you counteract the MSM bullhorn?

Blaukraut

(5,688 posts)
12. Nate Silver is not Miss Cleo
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:14 PM
Oct 2012

He has the same information we have. He adds up polls and averages them out, and then extrapolates probabilities. Today's tracking polls (other than gallup) are showing that Romney's bounce has leveled out, and Obama's numbers are improving. So the bleeding has stopped. Again, though. This election was never going to be a landslide for Obama, and we will see final state and national polls bear that out. Neither is Romney's surge endless, or he'd be at 60-40 by election day - totally unrealistic. So settle down and GOTV.

Cosmocat

(14,535 posts)
28. It is past that point
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:22 PM
Oct 2012

First, you are right about drilling down and GOTV.

But, I was very certain after the debate that it would spike and recede.

The post debate rush has pretty much cleared and if anything Romney having a virtual tie, at least seems to have set.

I fear that what we saw was that up until their debate, people just were not tuned in, and the debate itself and framing from the media pushed a lot of people who were not enthused by Romney, but lean to the right to him.

I don't think they are going back.

We went in a week from having BO at about a 52 to 47 national win and carrying the senate to some pickups and closing the gap in the House pretty good to HOPING for BO to get a national win and having had such a big electoral margin to cross the finish line in the 280 range.

Romney has been SO bad, and the relentless stream of utter bullshit these two are putting forward it so obvious. If people are on board with it this late in the game, they are on board with it.



TroyD

(4,551 posts)
13. Obama didn't fight back
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:15 PM
Oct 2012

And that can be fatal in politics.

You have to be aggressive and you have to be ruthless. If you aren't willing to do those things, particularly when dealing with a pathological liar like Mitt Romney, you won't survive.

Ted Kennedy was at risk of losing his Senate seat in 1994. Mitt was ahead of him in the polls and was on track to win. It was only in the final weeks of the campaign that Ted overtook Romney and beat him.

He did that because he FOUGHT BACK. He exposed Romney as MULTIPLE CHOICE.

The key question is, can Obama do the same?

still_one

(91,807 posts)
19. Yes he will. Things will start to change by Monday in our favor. The issues have never been
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:17 PM
Oct 2012

Clearer

JI7

(89,151 posts)
22. the issues have been clear for a long time now. accept that some people don't care about them
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:19 PM
Oct 2012

and will do whatever they "feel' like at the moment rather than based on issues.

still_one

(91,807 posts)
44. Many people are not critical thinkers. The double talk from the republicans has confused those
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:32 PM
Oct 2012

People

You and I see through it, but they really have to be reminded what is at stake

Bush double talked about the issues, especially women's rights, and for the most part the Dems and the media let him get away with it.

Biden called them on it, along with other issues. Ryan tried to double talk and bs about most of it, but he could not do that with social security, Medicare, abortion, and the supreme court

Biden would not let them

That is whymthe media is criticizing him on everything but the issues, because they know the differences were made clearer than they ever had been

What The President did was a disaster, when he said that romney's position, and his position on social security were the same was idiotic, and caused a lot of damage

Biden undid a lot of that damage, is is now up to the President, and he will do it

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
50. 'What The President did was a disaster'
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:37 PM
Oct 2012
What The President did was a disaster, when he said that romney's position, and his position on social security were the same was idiotic, and caused a lot of damage


I couldn't believe it when he said that. He seemed to forget he was in a debate and was dealing with a dangerous man like Romney.

This is why I was a Hillary supporter in the 2008 primaries. I worried then, as I worry now, that Obama is not willing to be ruthless with the Republicans.

In Jodi Kantor's book, "The Obamas" she talks about how Obama has a deep desire to be liked by the Republicans and to find common ground with them. He needs to watch that FDR speech from 1936 to realize how dangerous that is.

Don't tell people that you are similar to the Republicans - make the CONTRAST. Otherwise why should people vote for a Democrat?

still_one

(91,807 posts)
71. We agree. I believe the lesson has been learned the hard way. I also believe Hillary or Biden
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 08:02 PM
Oct 2012

Both would be excellent nominees in 2016

You were not the only one who could not believe what he said about social security

JI7

(89,151 posts)
21. oh please, the whores are not giving Biden the Credit they did Romney
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:18 PM
Oct 2012

Gore was aggressive and attacked for it. the whores called it a tie yesterday . while they have been going on for days Propping up Romney.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
29. CNN called it a Tie
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:23 PM
Oct 2012

That is correct. And we know about what FOX is like.

But CBS and other networks showed a win for Biden, as do many of the online polls and much of the commentary and reaction on Twitter.

Twitter Metrics that I've seen reported today show that Biden won.

But this is not about the V.P. debate. This is about the Presidential debate. That's what matters.

VirginiaTarheel

(823 posts)
27. I never thought 7.8 would move polls
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:22 PM
Oct 2012

The GOP made sure of that with it's conspiracy theories. Moreover if previous months' job numbers did not move voters, why would good numbers ?

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
42. Do you mean the Popular Vote?
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:32 PM
Oct 2012

Or the chance of winning?

What is the current chance of Obama winning?

60%? 65%?

mgcgulfcoast

(1,127 posts)
46. popular vote
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:35 PM
Oct 2012

he also has moved florida and colorado to lean romney and dropped virginia to a 52.7% chance of an obama win.

JI7

(89,151 posts)
17. We Really need to focus on the Ground Game, the Media has been very Negatve Towards Obama
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:16 PM
Oct 2012

and is propping up Romney even more than they did Bush.

i think a lot in the meda identify with Romney. consider the media these days don't really focus on real news and are very superficial . many of them relate to people like Romney and can't stand the "little people". they probably also want another disaster to occur to get them ratings.

low info sheep types will easily vote based on what the whores are pushing.

Tippy

(4,610 posts)
23. The numbers in that poll were from Wed...the day of the debate...
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:21 PM
Oct 2012

And you do not want to use any numbers from Mason/Dixon They are pro Republican....

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
41. Thanks, yes
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:31 PM
Oct 2012

I am very familiar with Allan Lichtman and his keys.

He was also on The David Pakman Show earlier this year.

I know Lichtman has a good record.

still_one

(91,807 posts)
26. I'm sorry but silver referring to the mason Dixon polling as reliable is wrong. They are always
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:21 PM
Oct 2012

Reliable toward republicans

The issues were never clearer last night, and that will show results by Monday

aletier_v

(1,773 posts)
30. Fool me once, shame on Nate but fool me twice and shame on y'all who believe him :)
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:23 PM
Oct 2012

How do we know Nate isn't a republican?

That 98% for Obama should caused a lot of overconfidence.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
40. 'How do we know Nate isn't a republican?'
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:29 PM
Oct 2012

This sort of attack is like something the Republicans would say.

First of all, I think Nate Silver actually used to BE a pollster for Obama several years ago.

Second of all, you're acting like Nate Silver is inventing the polls or like Nate Silver is responsible for Obama's bad debate.

Nate is just doing his job. It's not his fault that Obama's numbers went down. What is he supposed to do? Ignore them?

What's funny is that the Republicans think he's a Democratic shill and people here attack him for being a Republican.

Let's not fall into the same pattern as the Republicans in attacking the pollsters (unless they are obviously biased like Gravis etc. ).

 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
45. What the hell kind of guy puts out a model that gives Obama a 98% chance of winning
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:34 PM
Oct 2012

and then a few days later he says it's a toss-up and a dead heat.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
53. You haven't been following the model properly
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:44 PM
Oct 2012

The 98% chance of winning was the NOW CAST. It meant that if an election was held at the time when Obama was ahead nationally and ahead in every swing state, he would be guaranteed to win.

The NOV 6 CAST is different. It's a projection of how things will be on Election Day, not today. The NOV 6 CAST did not show 98% for Obama. It showed about 85% for Obama going into the Presidential Debate because as mentioned above, Obama was ahead almost everywhere.

And why is it now approaching a dead heat? Well, that's because Obama COLLAPSED. He went from a National lead of several points and huge leads in most of the swing states to falling behind Nationally, and losing ground in all the states, and falling behind in some of them (eg. Florida).

Does this explain it?

 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
65. I understand the concept of the now cast
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:14 PM
Oct 2012

You don't have to explain it to me. The point is he's saying NOW it's a dead heat only a few days later. Doesn't give him much cred IMO.

fujiyama

(15,185 posts)
74. Nate started off in '08 on Daily Kos, about the least republican site (next to DU) on the web
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 09:41 PM
Oct 2012

I believe he was an Obama supporter. He started getting a lot of publicity after either IA or NH (not sure exactly when, but it was during the primaries). He started hitting it big later on during the general election and I remember him being featured in a few magazines.

Since having joined with the NYT, I'll agree with many that his commentary is sort of blah. He had a cool, independent website in '08, with interesting contributors. His presentation feels a little too slick and the site feels more neutered now. But I'm not certain exactly how Nate has changed his methodology since then. Maybe others more familiar with his models can chime in.

Maybe it's also the political environment. The polarization feels worse every year, and it feels worse now than even '04. Bush's extreme policies were the beginning. The Tea Party's ascent has simply made the country ungovernable.

blueknight

(2,831 posts)
31. i;ve been trying to tell you all
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:24 PM
Oct 2012

how bad the debate hurt our side, everyone told me i was wrong. not only did the pres lose the debate, but he seemed un-interested, bored, not up to the challenge. It makes me sick, but it is what it is.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
35. I said the same thing
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:27 PM
Oct 2012

And I was also attacked at the time.

It's not easy admitting when our side was beaten so badly. Bottom line is that Obama let Romney humiliate him in front of America. That cost Obama credibility. At TPM, Obama used to have a huge lead in the 'Strong Leader' category or whatever they call it. Now he is barely ahead of Romney.

Romney came across as strong and masculine. That's what Americans like. Other Western countries don't fall for this stuff, but Americans do. Image matters a great deal.

oswaldactedalone

(3,489 posts)
51. ^^^ Truth
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:38 PM
Oct 2012

All this three dimensional chess talk was delusional thinking. I also believed the jobs numbers wouldn't move anything. The Prez effed up big time and he has two chances to make it right or he's a one-termer.

 

graham4anything

(11,464 posts)
47. that's what happens when the troops get demoralized
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:35 PM
Oct 2012

a glass half empty soon is empty

depression spreads

optimism grows

seeds of disent


people just couldn't keep their mouths shut, had to give advice about what went wrong

instead of seeing the brilliance of letting Mitt shoot his load and later fire blanks

jees, as the late great Harry Chapin said when someone yelled out "Banana's"
he said a good concert builds like sex builds
you don't climax and then get to the good stuff

the rope a dope is working

and the final knockout is 11/6

did everyone think it would be handed to us on Bush's silver platter?

btw-where is one, just one person who has switched sides.
take away everything and there is NO person who has switched sides.

and if the demoralization of Obama means he has been to the bottom, then the only way to go is up.

Hey Joe-refill my glass, and let's put this one away

 

graham4anything

(11,464 posts)
61. demoralization is a tool of the enemy. Think positive not negative. Negativity kills hope and all
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:07 PM
Oct 2012

or as someone said last week

debbie downers and sad sams sink ships

look at the other side-
Ryan got his ass kicked

NOT ONE REPUBLICAN in public or on a board posting was whining that Ryan lost.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

they found a sliver of something and said they won.

as Paul Simon might have said "negativity like a cancer grows&quot to paraphrase his line in S.O.S.

You don't need to kick Mittens ass in a meaningless debate a month before election

You need to win the election on election day

and the old cliche "loose lips sink ships"

still applies.

Think Positive.

Vince Lombardi didn't say awwwwwwww the polls suck when he won Super Bowl 1 & 2
Joe Willie Namath didn't say awwwwwwwwwwww the polls suck in 1969 when he won Super Bowl 3

and remember

a winner does what a loser won't.
Did you think Mittens was going to give up and slink off under a rock somewhere?
Did you think Ryan was going to disappear

Think positive.

and demoralization and demoralization of the troops is a long time weapon used in local, state, national, and international politics

To think negative is what they want and have planned to do.
Demoralization leads to apathetic voters.

Whereas motivational positiveness leads to more voters for ones side

To win- ONE PUTS THEIR BEST FACE AND GO FORWARD, even when the chips are down.
one can whine and lose
or smile and win.

we are almost there.
We don't need to kick Mitts ass in debate 2 or 3. (After all Gore and Kerry won all 3 debates and spin lost it. It is evident that debates don't bring victory for democrats anymore, no matter how big the win, so ignore the debates, and get to the important part

and remember-polls pick a subsection of voters to question

WHEREAS EARLY VOTERS ARE A DEFINITE DONE VOTE.
(not a percentage, or chance, but an actual vote.

And if the stories about Ohio and early voting are true, Mittens CAN NOT win the election without Ohio. Because any small other chance would mean Mitt turned the tide, and if Mitt did so he would not lose Ohio, but he is losing Ohio. Therefore the small amount of other states will not suddenly turn his way. Advantage Obama, game set and match and winner Obama.

Thinking one wins, increases the chance of winning.

Mittens coming back is as likely as Goldwater, Mondale and Dukakis all thinking they would.

And in a revenge of 2000, Thank God the electoral college is still here.

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
63. Stop being a whiny doom gloom
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:11 PM
Oct 2012

PITA and make a difference instead. That's the abridged version, expletives deleted.

speedoo

(11,229 posts)
48. Nate's numbers are flawed because of Gravis Marketing.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:36 PM
Oct 2012

His state data for Colorado, NC and Ohio are skewed rethug because of Gravis Marketing polls which are probably fraudulent.

Has anyone brought Grantcart's work on Gravis Marketing to Nate's attention?

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
56. We have to stop making excuses
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:51 PM
Oct 2012

Of course Gravis is skewed, and so is ARG for that matter.

I've sent messages to Nate about this, and I'm sure other people have too. That would change the numbers somewhat, but it still ignores the fundamental issue here:

Romney had a GAME CHANGER. He went from being a nearly sure loser to giving himself a good shot of winning. In one night he knocked Obama flat and re-set the entire race.

That's why we're seeing such massive changes in the polls.

Now having said that, as long as Obama remains ahead in Ohio, he's still in the game. And as long as the Obama internal polls continue to show signs of stability that's good too.

But we can't blame all of this on Gravis. They are just taking advantage of a situation that Obama created.

helpisontheway

(5,002 posts)
49. I think Obama just cost us the
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:37 PM
Oct 2012

Election. All because he did not want to fight back. if Romney's numbers were temporary they would have dropped once the job numbers were added in. I kerp saying a few more days. i kept telling myself that maybe once that awful Friday drops off the trackers. But from the title it appears Romney is still polling high. I feel like crying but I know it will not do any good. Probably should take a break from DU for the weekend so I can stop worrying about something that I can't control.

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
67. What the flying f*ck are going on about?
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:33 PM
Oct 2012

Seriously, there are already polls today with him ahead. There were the battleground polls from EARLIER this week (released near midnight surprise suprise) with him still holding leads. So cut the crap. If you really, REALLY feel like it might be lost this is the time to show your mettle. This is the time to show who you are and what defines you. Do you crumple and cry or do you take a stand and make use evey last breath to make a difference to get just ONE MORE VOTE. Many have given their lives for less.

Think of your username for God's Sake.

Azathoth

(4,602 posts)
55. First impressions are the most important
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:49 PM
Oct 2012

The Romney bounce isn't going to recede on its own. Biden's performance last night probably stopped any further hemorrhaging, but the damage already done is largely irreparable. Obama's surrender last week gave folks who were just tuning in to the race a clear initial impression that many are going to carry through to election day. Those who were not enthusiastic about voting for him and were looking for a viable alternative now have one. We would need something truly game-changing to move the race back to where it was in September, and barring another 47% video splashing across the front pages, the only place that could happen is in the debates. And we won't get a blowout debate victory for the simple reason that Romney isn't going to show up and and fall asleep on stage for 90 minutes the way Obama did.

We're going to have to accept that the days of "80% chance of victory" are gone for good. This thing is tooth-and-nails right down to Nov. 6. The sooner we move from denial into a realist fight-for-our-lives mentality, the better.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
58. I agree with you
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:54 PM
Oct 2012

I've been cautioning against overconfidence all week, but some people like posting threads chuckling away at how Romney is on the way down to a major crash and that Obama will rope a dope him etc.

The first debate is usually the most watched. And the second is going to be the townhall which may not provide the opportunity for a direct confrontation rematch that many people want.

Obama needs to do well there, but he also needs to win the foreign policy debate and make that his strength again and not concede anything there to Romney.

raven42

(88 posts)
59. I'll admit I'm not feeling too good
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:54 PM
Oct 2012

about the way these polls are trending right now. But I still think this is a very winnable election for President Obama. If he has at least a couple of decent outings in the last two debates he can still pull this out. But it's going to be close--like 2000 and 2004. The big concern I have is the effects of Citizens United. All of these SuperPacs are pouring money into the swing states in the final few weeks, and the Democrats are going to be outspent big time. As gullible as much of the electorate has become (e.g., the same idiots who will decide who to vote for based on how a candidate "performs" in a debate, no matter their actual positions on the issues) I don't have much confidence in their ability to see through the corporate/right-wing propaganda.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
60. We should stay positive
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:57 PM
Oct 2012

Obama still has the advantage in Ohio and the Electoral College, and a good chance of winning.

But I do hope this is a lesson to those who thought Obama was going to mop the floor with Romney.

Hard work every day is important. No more complacency and overconfidence.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
66. Malarkey!
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:21 PM
Oct 2012

I post lots of good stuff here and many people have told me so.

I'm just one of several people here who is saying to stop underestimating Romney. It's dangerous.

Today I have posted many positive threads, polls & issues that demonstrate that how we can beat Romney. Take a look at them.

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
69. You even write like Mitt Romney
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:36 PM
Oct 2012

Here are my program directives! I have been of aid!

You need to work harder on your positivity matrix.

bkkyosemite

(5,792 posts)
70. I woke up this morning called my sister and said
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 07:37 PM
Oct 2012

walk me through this I'm bummed.

What bothers me is that Obama was what 330's EV's and now down to 289. Why? Because of one debate he went down so much in the polls. I feel the fix is in. The people who own the voting machines with no paper trail are repubs, Romney is so confident. The polls had Obama definitely winning and all polls were winning high. It's as if they were waiting for an excuse any excuse to start the down turn on Obama's high numbers to make it look legit.

Maybe I'm worrying for nothing but I do have that intuition type of feeling those that hate Obama are doing something to fix the election right before our eyes. The freepers on my FB don't notice at all that the two R's are lying even when I put up a video of the lies right out of their mouths...ceases to amaze me.

Please don't stone me. Maybe tomorrow I'll feel better.

 

allrevvedup

(408 posts)
72. Has Nate been writing those wingnut e-mails
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 08:07 PM
Oct 2012

my GOP relations used to send? I think I recognize the style.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
73. Nate Silver has taken not only to using Gravis, a very disreputable polling firm with joke
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 08:22 PM
Oct 2012

for bios and with serious outliers for results, but apparently is weighting them more heavily in state polls than other, more reputable polls. It makes no sense.

It's really weird. I'm wondering if, having pushed Obama's odds up around 80%, the debate performance scared him and he's now overcompensating on the downside to try to appear right no matter what happens.

RandySF

(57,196 posts)
77. It is what it is.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:22 PM
Oct 2012

Nate Silver knows what he's doing and he doesn't weight every poll equally. The race is indeed closing but this isn't the first time. Same thing happened to Reagan in 1984 and Bush in 2004.

Tx4obama

(36,974 posts)
78. The debate was only 24 hours ago. New polls will be out Monday and Romney's bounce will be GONE! nt
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:24 PM
Oct 2012

 

zach1845

(30 posts)
79. hopefully better next week
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:26 PM
Oct 2012

however I am doubtfull.
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
New ohio poll comes out tomorrow.
Ohio looks pretty darn close on the first night of our poll there. We'll do more calls tomorrow and have results in the evening
Expand

4h PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

@mattsharrington will release Ohio numbers tomorrow
View conversation

Also they showed a tie in battleground debates of who won the VP debate and
Ohio is way off pace on early voting then the 2008 election.(granted we have still have the lead but repubs narrowed the gap dramatically.

I guess we cant expect a bounce even a small one if the VP debate was perceived as a tie especially by those in the battleground states.


Loge23

(3,922 posts)
80. We're getting killed, deal with it.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:37 PM
Oct 2012

Denying the situation we're in is not going to change it.
We are losing this election as it stands right now. Crazy? Of course.
But an aging actor who played a President in the role of his lifetime was elected twice in this country.

Whatever the reason: racism, ignorance, image over substance, etc. - here we are. In a country just barely recovering from the reckless and treasonous actions of the right wing, the electorate is about to choose a ultra-rich white guy with a faux-intellectual reactionary running mate, both beholden to the lunatic fringe, over the effectively hobbled sitting President - the land of the 'fraid and the home of the (brain) freeze. Make no mistake - we'll be f&^%ed for the rest of many of our lives.

Maybe it's time to realize - it's not a great country, it's a stupid one and it's controlled by idiots. Whatever, but wake up - we are losing.

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