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Reply #19


Response to Blue Yorker (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 12:13 PM

19. Why would debate shift "very likely Obama" supporters

Mitt's numbers didn't go up at all. Obama's went down over 4% from very likely Obama to more equivocal. The debate obviously had an effect, but its hard to believe that hardcore Obama supporters dropped him and no Romney leaners moved into the hard core Romney camp. I can see "likely" or "somewhat likely" obama supporters moving toward Romney, but I don't really see how the debate would shift 10% of very likely Obama supporters into undecideds or lean Romney.

Also, Gravis Marketing is extremely republican. On September 28 Gravis gave Obama a 4 point lead in MI when the RCP average was 9 points, for example. while it says its nonpartisan, but its principal, Doug Kaplan, appears to donate to republican candidates.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021265606

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