Bad news. Romney takes lead in Colorado after post-debate 8% margin swing

[Blue Yorker]

From Obama +5% to Romney +3% in poll only partially conducted after the debate. What the result would have been if both days had been post-debate is unknown.

I will post good-news polls today if any is released. Hopefully Gallup at 1pm.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_CO_1006.pdf

*I edited this post because I originally understated Romney's comeback. I said Romney led 1% previously. In fact, Obama had a 5% in the Sept. 25 poll.

[VirginiaTarheel]

1. Debates matter, so he should clear his schedule and get Bill Clinton to coach him ASAP

The media have gotten their comeback narrative confirmed by polls, and they are openly rooting for Romney now. The only thing Obama can do is show up at the next debates ready to kick butt and knock Romney out. He cannot afford to dismiss debates the way he did Wednesday night.

[K Gardner]

48. This "poll" also has Mitt winning the black vote 60 to 40. Please see the analysis

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021484850 here by DemocratSinceBirth.

Sheesh people

[liberalsrus1]

61. Debates matter

Exactly. Debates do matter because Romney has received a bigger bounce than we thought he would and it may even be bigger come Monday polls. Obama has to get a new debate team or devote more time to practicing because if he loses the next debate, it's all over and Romney will win this thing.

[Indpndnt]

64. Oh, absolutely.

Since the debate he's given a not-really-an-apology on the 47% remarks which just highlights that video all over again, his lies in the debate have been discussed all over the MSM, the new jobs numbers have his surrogates screaming about conspiracies, and Big Bird is stalking him at his rallies while tens of thousands of messages on Twitter and FB destroy him over his PBS plans.

Yeah, Willard's are having a great week.



Adding: Aw, tombstoned already?! Bummer.

[mvd]

2. Gravis Marketing is worse than Ras even

They always have the worst numbers for Obama. I also don't buy the have to consider all polls idea, because Democrats are more honest in polling and everything else.

[geek tragedy]

3. Gravis is an iffy pollster.

But, I think the polling is reflecting the reality that Obama's debate performance was more damaging to him than Romney's 47% comments.

He can still turn it around, but he has to be considered the underdog now.

[mvd]

4. I don't think so. First debates are often the worst for the incumbent.

The jobs numbers and debate adjustments should help. Obama should do well in the town hall debate. And call out the lies all over the country.

[geek tragedy]

9. Most watched debate ever, and the worst debate performance ever.

Pretty gruesome.

Romney acted like he believed his own bullshit. Obama acted like he doesn't believe the truth he was speaking.

The guy is not a fighter.

[mvd]

13. I didn't mind his strategy, but he took it too far

Still time to erase this minor bounce.

[fugop]

15. Can't take you seriously

Anyone who calls that the worst debate performance ever, when we had Bush barely able to get out a coherent thought in his first debate against Kerry, can't be taken seriously.

[geek tragedy]

17. Bush acted like he believed what he was saying.

Obama acted guilty and ashamed.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

24. Except it wasn't the most watched debate ever

The Carter-Reagan debate attracted 90 million viewers and other debates over the years drew comparable numbers. Additionally more people watched the Biden-Palin debate than Wednesday's debate.

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/top-ten-presidential-debates-1960-to-present/

I'll leave your armchair analysis of "the worst performance ever" in the realm of things that are subjective, which is where it belongs.

[cilla4progress]

26. Oh, Bama can fight.

He just didn't bring it Wednesday night.

[phleshdef]

43. I KNOW so because this poll has Romney carrying 60% of the African American vote.

[graham4anything]

5. Hillary45 in 2016 after Obama retires. This election is so over. Obama won months ago.

and nothing has changed.

The only important number is 7.8.

[TroyD]

49. 'This election is so over. Obama won months ago.'

Why do some people keep saying this?

Don't you realize how risky that is?

Perhaps that's what Obama believed when he walked out on stage on Wednesday night.

Stop taking things for granted.

You can never do that where Republicans are concerned.

The election is not over, and Obama has not won.

[graham4anything]

54. let's go through it again...

Show me ONE voter that has switched sides that is an Obama fan?
Just one???

I see no evidence of any Obama fan suddenly voting for Mitt.(in any electoral state that is needed for 270.)

Again, let's rehash the football analogy

It's late in the 4th quarter
Obama winning by 6 TDS(or if you wish 9 TDS for 9 swing states, if there are that many.)
So Obama has minimum 42 to 0 lead

Even if Mitt gets 4 TDS from now to election day, its 42 to at most 28(2 pt. after each time)
BUT that is saying Obama doesn't get any more points.

This attitude forgets the 7.8 number which is all people have heard.
That is the equivelant to 2 more TDS for Obama let's say.
And is the story that drives.

No matter what the republicanlibertariantea says, the 7.8 is the number people see.
NOTHING has changed for Mitt, and he did not have a knockout blow.

Obama lost NOTHING even if (and I don't believe it) Mitt gained a few.

It's like the bullshit in 2008 after Obama had it won in the primary and with the way the votes in the future primaries were divided, HILLARY COULD NOT WIN, yet the RushLimbaugh rush the vote operation Kaos wasted months, just to have the enivitable
and basically NO Democrat Hillary voter switched to McCain/Sarah instead.

Do you not see this? (or don't you want that outcome???)

And Obama set it up (whether on purpose or by happenstance) that he outsmarted Mitt even if those think he was somewhat lethargic. Because now Mitt has to answer to it all,
and looks(EXCEPT TO THOSE ALREADY VOTING FOR HIM, which are not enough to win, like he wants Americans not to have jobs or be happy that times are getting better.

He boxed himself in.
Whatever sport analogy, Mitt cannot come back, it is statistically impossible, and just about every state with problems of voters not being able to vote, the courts are ruling in the democrat(Obama) favor.

[liberalsrus1]

62. That's how disaster begins

It's people like you that are fucking cheerleaders when the ship is going down and on fire! Obama is in trouble dude and he doesn't need anymore bullshit from supporters telling him he's perfect. He got stomped in the debate on Wednesday....let's be brutally honest here....we have to wake up before it's too late. Obama was weak because he hasn't had to stand up to naysayers.....he keeps getting the softballs from the press and although it's great to watch, it does nothing to steel him against the onslaught he received and will continue to receive in the next two debates. His debate team needs to be fired and get some people in there that challenges him bigtime. That's the only way Obama will stay standing in the next debate. It's like tough love for your kids. Obama needs a big dose of tough love right now.

[MFM008]

56. exactly

repugs must be watched like ebola virus on a slide. Dont take your eye offa them for a second.

[FBaggins]

52. You're fooling yourself.

The only important number is 7.8.

If that were true... the race is lost.

Fortunately, that isn't the only important issue.

[BeyondGeography]

53. Why is yesterday's unemployment number important if Obama won months ago?

What are you peddling here?

[kaiserhog]

6. Gravis is a Republican polling firm.

Isn't Gravis a Republican polling firm. I believe Alex Castellanos is part of that firm.

[Blue Yorker]

8. Castellanos is from Purple Poll n/t

[Jennicut]

14. Doug Kaplan is in charge of that poll and

yes, he has given donations to Repubs in the past.

[dennis4868]

7. Thanks

I really thought Obama would take Colorado. Seems like its slipping away. Other state polls moving into Romney's direction as well. Go ahead and bash me for being negative but I'm a concerned DUer and Obama fan. That debate really changed things

[mvd]

10. Let us see Gallup, PPP, Quinnipiac, and other solid polls..

before worrying. Romney obviously got a little bump, as seen in Ipsos - but voters will come back IMO. I bet Bush was concerned after the first debate with Kerry.

[oswaldactedalone]

18. It was a devastatingly

bad performance by Obama. Let's hope the $181 million can buy enough ads to stem the tide. Obviously, the next two debates are crucial as well.

[dkf]

28. Gee I am so glad I am not in a swing state.

[RBInMaine]

46. The sky is actually still up there. Just look. And enough of the hyperbole. It was a weak

performance yes, but nothing to be getting so worked up about. It was ONE debate. Move on.

[Drunken Irishman]

33. Are you and the OP in cahoots?

Seriously. Every negative post I've seen since the debates has either been from Blue Yorker or you. It's quite pathetic ... and annoying.

The kicker? Both of you hardly ever posted until the polls started closing and now it's every single day with your doom and gloom. You're not fooling anyone, really.

[lunatica]

35. It's PANIC time!!!

[Cha]

44. AND..

The OP posted some shit Glen Greenwald thread the other day saying: "There no difference between Romney and Pres Obama" I really have to wonder what's up with this..

[liberalsrus1]

60. Thanks

I'm with you. Obama did not come out swinging and I think looking down only made him look weak. That isn't what we want. What the hell happened to his debate staff? Where the hell were they the days before the debate......in a hooka lounge? It was a royal republican ass-kicking and it cannot happen again.

[earthside]

11. Colorado is going to be tough.

Our unemployment situation here is stuck at eight percent.

And anecdotally I have friends and relatives that are having a difficult time finding jobs ... and an even worse time finding a decent paying job.

There are pockets of rural Colorado that have double digit unemployment.

Plus, the Repuglicans are better organized than they were four years ago.

It all depends on the Obama campaign's ability to get Obama voters to vote in metro Denver and Ft. Collins.

I would call Colorado a toss-up -- it could go either way -- and it is going to be much closer than it was in 2008.

[VirginiaTarheel]

12. Who is in charge of Obama's debate prep?

They should be fired or reassigned now. WHy continue with people who recklessly let the president go out unprepared on Wednesday night? Get some new debate preparers now before it is too late.

[otohara]

23. I Expect The Team Wasn't Prepared

for the sheer number of lies and flip-flops by the agitated pit-bull Romney.
I figure they were prepared for a few, but not 27.

[lunatica]

34. This gif is made for you

[MjolnirTime]

16. The pattern is striking, not in the polls, but in your posts. One theme hammered home.

And you throw in all the shit Repuke outlets taboot!

[lamp_shade]

25. I just had the same thought. Hmmmm.

[7worldtrade]

19. Why would debate shift "very likely Obama" supporters

Mitt's numbers didn't go up at all. Obama's went down over 4% from very likely Obama to more equivocal. The debate obviously had an effect, but its hard to believe that hardcore Obama supporters dropped him and no Romney leaners moved into the hard core Romney camp. I can see "likely" or "somewhat likely" obama supporters moving toward Romney, but I don't really see how the debate would shift 10% of very likely Obama supporters into undecideds or lean Romney.

Also, Gravis Marketing is extremely republican. On September 28 Gravis gave Obama a 4 point lead in MI when the RCP average was 9 points, for example. while it says its nonpartisan, but its principal, Doug Kaplan, appears to donate to republican candidates.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021265606

[BellaKos]

20. It must be the altitude. n/t

[otohara]

21. It's Bad News Saturday

CO will go blue, because all politics is local and we have Amendment 64!

[WI_DEM]

22. You should identify that Gravis is a Republican polling firm just as Daily Kos does when...

they use their polls in their polling wrap:

FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney 49, Obama 47

FLORIDA (We Ask America--R): Romney 49, Obama 46, Others 1

MONTANA (The Mellman Group for JET PAC [DGA]--D): Romney 48, Obama 44

NEVADA (Gravis--R): Obama 49, Romney 48

NEW MEXICO (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 43

OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama 50, Romney 49

OHIO (We Ask America--R): Romney 47, Obama 46, Others 1

VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Romney 49, Obama 48

VIRGINIA (We Ask America--R): Romney 48, Obama 45, Others 2

Gravis also has a poll out showing the GOP candidate for Senator in Nevada up by 16-points, totally unbelievable.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/05/1140583/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Polling-Wrap-Attack-of-the-Republican-Snap-Pollsters?showAll=yes

[cilla4progress]

27. RCP average still has him up

.5 in Colorado

[louis-t]

29. Oh, I see, and THOSE polls aren't 'skewed'?

Rumnuts twitches and bullies his way through a debate and gets an 8 point swing?

[fugop]

30. I'm supposed to get worried over a GRAVIS poll?

Please. These guys have zero credibility. Look up some of their polls. Again and again, they put up numbers that flow against everyone else (Romney up 5 in Va. only two-three days after the Obama and Clinton speeches at DNC; showing leads for Romney in Fla. when everyone else was showing Obama; showing only a 4-point Obama lead in Ohio when everyone else - including campaign internals for both parties, I believe - showing a 9-point lead.

Anyway, Romney obviously got a bit of a bounce. But this polling company? Is crap. There's some bad news out there, but anything tied to Gravis ain't making me sweat.

[WallaceRitchie]

31. READ THE INTERNALS

This poll seems not so accurate.

Blacks
40% Obama,
57.5% Romney?

Age
41% 30-49,
29.5% 50-64
14.8% 18-29
14.7% 65+

40% Obama job approval?

Seriously? You want "unskew" this one. No way Romney gets 60% of the black vote. Voters above age 50 are most likely to vote. Those over 65 vote more than any other age group. Obama's approval rating nationally was 54% (per Gallup) on Thursday.

Not buying it.

[fugop]

38. Is that REAL?

I was trying to zoom through the crosstabs but didn't see this. SERIOUSLY? This pollster has 60 percent of the black vote going to Romney?

If that's true, then yea. That's all I need to know about this poll.

Also curious as to how accurate the breakdown of Dems and Reps is. I know Colo. has been trending to have more independents, so that makes sense, but last I saw, Republicans had a verrrrry slight edge on Dems - this seems to have a higher one than the last one I saw.

Also seems to have a pretty small Hispanic participation in the poll, but ... shrug. As I said, if that percentage of the black vote (60% Romney- 40% Obama) is actually what this pollster is putting forward, just cross any results off. It's ridiculous.

[barnabas63]

47. oh noes!!!

Romney's winning the black vote!!

[cash__whatiwant]

32. I don't know if Obama will take Colorado again.

Wasn't CO one of the few states to vote for Dole after voting for Clinton? There are a lot of gun lovers in CO, and for whatever reason, Independents seem to like Romney, which there are many of in CO.

[WallaceRitchie]

40. Third party

This poll also had 4.8% choosing "Other" unnamed candidates. Former Governor Gary Johnson of neighboring New Mexico has polled higher than that himself in Colorado. (7-10%) Throw in Virgil Goode (a possible Romney spoiler in Virginia) and it wouldn't surprise me to see Romney losing via third party options.

I have a hard time taking any Colorado poll seriously when only two candidates are presented as choices.

[cash__whatiwant]

71. I don't really see gary Johnson being a huge

Spoiler for Romney. I don't think it's automatic that gary Johnson takes from mittens 100%. He had youth voter appeal...

[Drunken Irishman]

36. You're now on my ignore list...

I think it's obvious you're a troll. I say this with respect, but the fact you've only been here a month and every post I've seen of yours has been negative pretty much proves that you're here to upset the flock. If you're not a troll, if you're legit ... that makes it worse. I have advice for you, go outside, enjoy the sun and get the fuck off the internet and out of politics. You're obviously not cut out for this game. Yeesh. I've never seen so much pearl-clenching in my life. It's annoying and it's absolutely pathetic.

Stop being pathetic and stiffen the fuck up. Jesus Christ.

[AtomicKitten]

37. You've been busy here.

[phleshdef]

39. This poll has Romney getting 60% of the African American vote. In other words, its bullshit.

[phleshdef]

42. Blue Yorker, when are you going to acknowledge what I just pointed out here? ^^^^

[WallaceRitchie]

45. Age

Over 40% of respondents were in the 30-49 age group... and just 14% of those polled were 65+... when the latter group is the most likely age group to vote, and will oppose Romney's entitlement plans.

[regnaD kciN]

59. I thought the older you are, the more Republican you voted...

...so that number should suggest a higher Romney total, not a lower one.

Still, any poll that shows R+17.5 among African-Americans can probably be dismissed out-of-hand.

[Blue Idaho]

41. You seem to be awfully busy delivering bad news these days...

It's almost as if you enjoy it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. Ahhhh-The Poll Which Suggests African Americans Are Breaking For Robme 2-1

.

[valerief]

51. Columbine Colorado. No surprise. nt

[landolfi]

55. I don't think so.

An 8% swing? Where was this poll taken, a Romney rally?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. So Gravis Has Robme Winning The African American Vote 2-1 And Latino Participation Down 35%

.

[ProSense]

65. Here's the problem:

Why the hell are people, including Nate Silver, giving these polls credibility?

Here's Nate:

There were few state polls published on Saturday, but a Gravis Marketing poll of Colorado also showed a sharp reversal toward Mr. Romney. He led in its newest survey, which was conducted on Thursday after the debate, by 3.5 percentage points. Although Gravis Marketing polls have had a very strong Republican lean so far this cycle, the trend in the poll is nevertheless extremely favorable for Mr. Romney, since he had trailed Mr. Obama by roughly five percentage points in a poll it conducted in September.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/

The poll is utter bullshit. Still, if they want to take these absurd polls seriously an increase Republican delusion, so be it.

"Fair and balanced" is creating the impression that psychos rule this country. You see, Republicans are complaining about the polls so every poll has to be given merit.

Lying is Genius. Greed is good. Vague is brilliant. Cheating is American.

[mzmolly]

58. Gravis polled more Republicans than Dems in this poll.

Polled percentages.

Other 39.8%
Republican 31.9%
Democrat 28.3%

The spread for Romney, is almost identical to the difference between R's and D's. 3.6 percent more R's were polled and 3.5 is the supposed advantage for Rmoney.

31.9-28.3 = 3.6

Romney 49.4%
Obama 45.9%
Other 4.8%

49.4-45.9 = 3.5

The 'other' column being nearly 40% is also very curious.

[progressivebydesign]

67. Yah the "other" is suspect. Most "independents" are republicans, and the ALWAYS oversample them nt

[budkin]

63. I don't buy it. Let's see how things look on Tuesday from the reputable pollsters n/t

[progressivebydesign]

66. another shiny happy poll number from the usual suspects.

C'mon.. you always pick the WORST polls to post. And this place has Romney winning the AA vote by a wide margin??? I can't tell if you're a pessimistic person or overly "concerned." that poll is a JOKE.. really, some people need to stop this.

[MFM008]

68. sorry gop polls are not surprising.

[bak3000]

69. GOOD NEWS!

Everyone has the ability and should consider matching names to threads before they enter. As an outside observer, it's quite clear that certain posters "get off" on UN-nerving others. I especially employ those who have medical conditions to avoid "debbie downer" postings. You'll feel better!

One other piece of GOOD news: If ANYONE thinks the President will lose enough swing states--THAT HE'S ALWAYS lead in--to allow Thirston Howell Redux to be elected, you're smoking or snortin whatever slick Willie was geeked up on Wednesday night.

RMoney WILL LOSE!

[mzmolly]

70. Welcome.

[grantcart]

72. Next time put the pollster in the OP. If you don't we have to assume you don't have a clue when

you have a serious development or when your getting played by the RW.

[Panasonic]

73. I live in Colorado. People are still yanking their Rmoney signs.

Gravis has zero credibility and is a +15 for any polls from Gravis. So Obama is in excellent shape.

Now I've got go back to convincing my mom to mail in Obama instead of Rmoney. I'll work on her after the holidays are done.