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Welcome_hubby

(312 posts) Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:56 PM Dec 2012

I predict GOP re-takes the Senate in 2014 and Democrats win the Presidency in 2016 [View all]

The reason why the Republicans will win the Senate back is because many more seats will be defended by incumbent Democrats than incumbent Republicans. In this country, the fact that one party wins more seats and the other has virtually no significance regarding which party people like better. The incumbent/challenger ratio has a lot to do with who wins.

On the contrary, this fact does not apply to Presidential elections, which are a better reflection of which party people want in power. It's one guy against the other, and the Democratic candidate will win. Thanks.

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I predict GOP re-takes the Senate in 2014 and Democrats win the Presidency in 2016 [View all] Welcome_hubby Dec 2012 OP

Which States do you see as toss ups or potential flips? I see two....both currenly Republican. Bluenorthwest Dec 2012 #1

The Democrats defended a lot more Senate seats this year too tabbycat31 Dec 2012 #2

I thought all Senators had to run every two years. This is so confusing. Honeycombe8 Dec 2012 #3

Representatives every 2, Senators every 6. Lizzie Poppet Dec 2012 #6

1/3 every 2 years run for Senate krawhitham Dec 2012 #17

Why only 1/3rd? How was it started that way in teh first place...that certain states expire in Honeycombe8 Dec 2012 #30

It's to better insulate the Senate from the momentary passions of the electorate mythology Dec 2012 #25

I see. Thanks. nt Honeycombe8 Dec 2012 #31

You mean like this year? brooklynite Dec 2012 #4

At the rate the GOP is going, they won't even be a viable party by 2014. nt. OldDem2012 Dec 2012 #5

Interesting fact about 2012... ewagner Dec 2012 #7

I think the logic is with your assessment. CTyankee Dec 2012 #12

Yes. That's what happened to North Carolina, for example. yardwork Dec 2012 #18

That is too bad for what I believed was a forward-evolving state given the CTyankee Dec 2012 #20

Very long story. yardwork Dec 2012 #23

Yes, it is a jewel and exactly what the tea partiers DON'T want: educated citizens. CTyankee Dec 2012 #24

I don't know. yardwork Dec 2012 #29

Perhaps Obamacare will help with that. But you are right. Universal health care in CTyankee Dec 2012 #33

I agree that that is incredibly sad. yardwork Dec 2012 #34

Sure. You've got no idea who the candidates will be... SidDithers Dec 2012 #8

In 2012, Democrats were defending 21 seats to the Republican 10 and 2 Independents who voted Dem RomneyLies Dec 2012 #9

One addition, in 2016, the Dems defend 9 seats to the GOP's 24 RomneyLies Dec 2012 #10

I don't see Dems having to go that far left to successfully challenge the tea baggers. CTyankee Dec 2012 #16

A lot depends on how stupid the Dems get on gun control hack89 Dec 2012 #11

Somebody needs to take a chill pill. Wellstone ruled Dec 2012 #13

Unless you've examined each individual race, you are only guessing. That doesn't help. randome Dec 2012 #14

"Guessing" isn't the first verb I first thought of. bluesbassman Dec 2012 #21

This message was self-deleted by its author GoCubsGo Dec 2012 #15

bullshit warrior1 Dec 2012 #19

+100,000... nt Andy823 Dec 2012 #27

Incumbency is usually a tough thing to run against. Gidney N Cloyd Dec 2012 #22

If we go over the cliff... PennsylvaniaMatt Dec 2012 #26

OFA AC_Mem Dec 2012 #28

I predict the Dems will take the House and keep the Senate and WH. Rex Dec 2012 #32

Two Big Unknown Factors... KharmaTrain Dec 2012 #35

Hit and Run Le Taz Hot Dec 2012 #36

That's a lie. I am not a new poster Welcome_hubby Dec 2012 #38

The Serious People predicted the GOP would retake the Senate in 2012... backscatter712 Dec 2012 #37