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Thu Dec 27, 2012, 01:56 PM

 

I predict GOP re-takes the Senate in 2014 and Democrats win the Presidency in 2016

The reason why the Republicans will win the Senate back is because many more seats will be defended by incumbent Democrats than incumbent Republicans. In this country, the fact that one party wins more seats and the other has virtually no significance regarding which party people like better. The incumbent/challenger ratio has a lot to do with who wins.

On the contrary, this fact does not apply to Presidential elections, which are a better reflection of which party people want in power. It's one guy against the other, and the Democratic candidate will win. Thanks.

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Reply I predict GOP re-takes the Senate in 2014 and Democrats win the Presidency in 2016 (Original post)
Welcome_hubby Dec 2012 OP
Bluenorthwest Dec 2012 #1
tabbycat31 Dec 2012 #2
Honeycombe8 Dec 2012 #3
Lizzie Poppet Dec 2012 #6
krawhitham Dec 2012 #17
Honeycombe8 Dec 2012 #30
mythology Dec 2012 #25
Honeycombe8 Dec 2012 #31
brooklynite Dec 2012 #4
OldDem2012 Dec 2012 #5
ewagner Dec 2012 #7
CTyankee Dec 2012 #12
yardwork Dec 2012 #18
CTyankee Dec 2012 #20
yardwork Dec 2012 #23
CTyankee Dec 2012 #24
yardwork Dec 2012 #29
CTyankee Dec 2012 #33
yardwork Dec 2012 #34
SidDithers Dec 2012 #8
RomneyLies Dec 2012 #9
RomneyLies Dec 2012 #10
CTyankee Dec 2012 #16
hack89 Dec 2012 #11
Wellstone ruled Dec 2012 #13
randome Dec 2012 #14
bluesbassman Dec 2012 #21
GoCubsGo Dec 2012 #15
warrior1 Dec 2012 #19
Andy823 Dec 2012 #27
Gidney N Cloyd Dec 2012 #22
PennsylvaniaMatt Dec 2012 #26
AC_Mem Dec 2012 #28
Rex Dec 2012 #32
KharmaTrain Dec 2012 #35
Le Taz Hot Dec 2012 #36
Welcome_hubby Dec 2012 #38
backscatter712 Dec 2012 #37

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:11 PM

1. Which States do you see as toss ups or potential flips? I see two....both currenly Republican.

nt

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:17 PM

2. The Democrats defended a lot more Senate seats this year too

As the class of 2006 (Democratic year) was up for re-election this year.

What Democratic seats do you see flipping in 2014?

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:19 PM

3. I thought all Senators had to run every two years. This is so confusing.

ALL House of Rep representatives ran in 2012, right? But the Senate is staggered? Why the hell is that? It's so confusing.

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Response to Honeycombe8 (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:27 PM

6. Representatives every 2, Senators every 6.

I have a lot of trepidation about the 2014 elections, too...

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Response to Honeycombe8 (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:54 PM

17. 1/3 every 2 years run for Senate

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Response to krawhitham (Reply #17)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 06:30 PM

30. Why only 1/3rd? How was it started that way in teh first place...that certain states expire in

certain years and they have to run again, but other states expire in other years?

I guess I'll read up on this on the internets.

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Response to Honeycombe8 (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 03:59 PM

25. It's to better insulate the Senate from the momentary passions of the electorate

It's one of the reasons (along with not being able to gerrymander Senate seats) that the Tea Party wasn't able to get many Senators elected. The House was supposed to be the body reflective of the masses, where the Senators were nominated by the state legislatures to as a way to hold back the House.

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Response to mythology (Reply #25)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 06:30 PM

31. I see. Thanks. nt

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:22 PM

4. You mean like this year?

Where Democrats had 21 seats up compared to 10 for the Republicans?

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:27 PM

5. At the rate the GOP is going, they won't even be a viable party by 2014. nt.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:28 PM

7. Interesting fact about 2012...

...in states where a Senator was up for election/re-election...Democrats did MUCH better than expected....

but...

WITHIN States congressional districts...REPUBLICANS did much better in Congress

The TOTAL VOTES of the States were Democratic...so Senators, elected by the whole State were more likely to be Democratic while VOTES within Congressional Districts were GERRYMANDERED for Republicans and, hence Repubs were more likely to Win....

I think we keep the Senate and maybe pick off a few Republican Congressmen.

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Response to ewagner (Reply #7)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:48 PM

12. I think the logic is with your assessment.

We Dems have a really serious task ahead in state leges where we simply MUST gain more seats to reverse this insane gerrymandering of districts. This is where I see the real problem is...

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Response to CTyankee (Reply #12)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:58 PM

18. Yes. That's what happened to North Carolina, for example.

In 2010, for the first time in more than 100 years, the Republicans won a majority in the North Carolina state legislature. Since it was a census year, and North Carolina grew in population, the entire state was redistricted. The Republicans controlled that redistricting and the result is a hideously unrepresentative redrawing of district lines that ensures a Republican majority in North Carolina for a long time. Furthermore, even though more Democrats than Republicans voted in 2012, the Congressional delegation from North Carolina is also now Republican dominated.

To put the icing on the cake the people of my state also elected a Republican governor. Koch Brothers money convinced them that the Republicans will fix everything that ails us.

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Response to yardwork (Reply #18)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 03:14 PM

20. That is too bad for what I believed was a forward-evolving state given the

scientific and other learned research going on in the state at the time. What happened to that scenario?

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Response to CTyankee (Reply #20)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 03:32 PM

23. Very long story.

First, it's still correct that there is a lot of learned research going on in the state. There are pockets of deep blue in North Carolina, including the university towns around the Research Triangle Park and Asheville.

Several factors came together to create this mess. First, many of the old-time rural Democrats in North Carolina have social views that are more in line with the Tea Party. The "southern strategy" has been making inroads for a long time. In the 1980s the churches got coopted by the Republican Party. It is not easy to convince people to vote Democratic when their pastors tell them every Sunday and Wednesday night that they will go to hell if they don't vote Republican.

Outside the universities and research industries, the economy of North Carolina was badly hurt by the outsourcing of labor overseas. Tobacco of course is no longer a major cash crop and the cigarette industry is gone. Cotton is gone. Furniture making is gone overseas. And even within the research industry, many jobs are gone. Telecommunications gone - virtually all outsourced overseas. Small manufacturing all over the state gone. People are looking for somebody to blame, and Koch Brothers money is there with advertising telling them that this is all the fault of Socialist Obama and the Democrats.

Meanwhile, the Democrats who held power within North Carolina for so long became complacent and corrupt. Not all of them, but the heavily-funded Republicans were there to uncover scandal after scandal involving Democratic governors and other leaders. People got fed up. They thought that the Republicans offered a better way.

Now I fear that the Tea Partiers who have seized control will defund our strengths. The jewel in North Carolina's crown has always been the state university system.

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Response to yardwork (Reply #23)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 03:49 PM

24. Yes, it is a jewel and exactly what the tea partiers DON'T want: educated citizens.

Any chance of a strengthening of that learned researched industry expanding, in order to gain a higher number of progressive voters to the state?

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Response to CTyankee (Reply #24)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 06:17 PM

29. I don't know.

Telecommunications and high tech used to be a mainstay of the Research Triangle Park. Now manufacturing is all outsourced and many of the businesses went under.

There are efforts to ramp up innovation. Personally, I believe that if we had universal health coverage, there would be a boom in entrepreneurship and innovation all over the country. North Carolina in particular has a culture that supports the idea of small businesses and individual entrepreneurship. Lack of health insurance is a massive barrier to going into business for oneself, though. If we could guarantee access to high quality health care for everybody we would see things turn around.

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Response to yardwork (Reply #29)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 06:54 PM

33. Perhaps Obamacare will help with that. But you are right. Universal health care in

western and scandinavian countries HELP boost entrepreneurship. How can it not?

It is the saddest of things that the people who need universal health care the most in our country are often its most virulent haters, all due to the propaganda spewed by the RW. As a person who travels often in Europe, I am struck by how ignorant so many Americans are about European health care. I try to explain it to people who are duped. But they simply have no way of knowing what I am talking about...

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Response to CTyankee (Reply #33)

Fri Dec 28, 2012, 11:48 PM

34. I agree that that is incredibly sad.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:28 PM

8. Sure. You've got no idea who the candidates will be...

but you're already got it figured that Democrats will lose the White House in 4 years.

Gotcha.

Sid

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:32 PM

9. In 2012, Democrats were defending 21 seats to the Republican 10 and 2 Independents who voted Dem

 

In 2014 the Democrats defend 20 seats to the Republican 13.

The biggest problem seats for the Democratic Party will be those up in MT, AK, SD, LA, AR, and WV

I suspect Susan Collins' seat in Maine may be vulnerable on the Republican side, especially if the teabaggers mount a primary assault.

I think the Democrats could hold the Senate in 2014 if sufficiently moderate Democrats are put up in those problem states where the incumbent is retiring. If the Democrats go to the opposite of the teabaggers and push those nominations too far t the left, then the Dems could definitely lose control of the Senate.

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Response to RomneyLies (Reply #9)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:39 PM

10. One addition, in 2016, the Dems defend 9 seats to the GOP's 24

 

I see no vulnerable Democratic seats that year but at least seven vulnerable GOP seats.

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Response to RomneyLies (Reply #9)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:52 PM

16. I don't see Dems having to go that far left to successfully challenge the tea baggers.

The republicans in general and the teabaggers specifically are a losing brand with the American public. The stunts they are pulling now should offput one hell of a lot of voters come 2014...and they don't seem to want to learn anything...

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:41 PM

11. A lot depends on how stupid the Dems get on gun control

they have a fine line to walk.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:50 PM

13. Somebody needs to take a chill pill.

Look at the demographics. Rethugs will loose bigtime after today. This fake fiscal cliff crap is being fomented by the 1%ers whom are the money baggers for the Thugs. You f-- with the average Joe and Jane you are done. Social Media is the big weapon for the Dems,the Thugs can't handle the TRUTH,that's the long and the short of it. The end game here is,the House and the Senate will be in Democratic control in 2014,and we have Single payer Health Care by 2016. Stop worrying about the the Rethugs,they are toast just like the Wigs.

Predictionresident Obama goes before the Nation Tomorrow if the Orange Man does not get it done. Gloves are off,going to be interesting and the Teabillies will destroy the Rethug Party. USA USA!!!

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:50 PM

14. Unless you've examined each individual race, you are only guessing. That doesn't help.

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Response to randome (Reply #14)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 03:22 PM

21. "Guessing" isn't the first verb I first thought of.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 03:00 PM

19. bullshit

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Response to warrior1 (Reply #19)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 04:36 PM

27. +100,000... nt

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 03:31 PM

22. Incumbency is usually a tough thing to run against.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 04:27 PM

26. If we go over the cliff...

Support for the GOP is going to plummet. And it will only get worse. I predict that Dems keep the Senate in 2014 and win the Presidency in 2016 (whether our candidate is Hillary or someone else).

With regards to the House, I would like to be optimistic, and the Republicans only have a 34 seat advantage, so taking back the House it isn't out of the realm of possibilities, but hopefully we will pick up some seats in 2014, positioning ourselves for taking over control in 2016.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 05:32 PM

28. OFA

This is why I hope OFA stays active as a resource to keep our feet to the fire with GOTV. I don't underestimate the GOP however I also know that democrats are smart and we are learning more about the corruption and real intention of the Republicans every day. Its all about getting people educated and engaged and OFA is outstanding in this regard.

The GOP is aware as well and they will be more crafty in 2014; we must be prepared.

Shine on
Annette

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 06:31 PM

32. I predict the Dems will take the House and keep the Senate and WH.

And we will have liberal judges on the bench and soon.

Easy peasy.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Fri Dec 28, 2012, 11:59 PM

35. Two Big Unknown Factors...

...First is how many incumbent Democrats will retire. I'm not fully familiar with the list but I would think there'll be fewer seats to cover in 2014 than in 2012. Having incumbents running makes a big difference in being able to win elections in purple and red states and holding the Senate.

The other wildcard will be how many incumbent rushpublicans get primaried by teabaggers. I expect we'll see a couple nutbags emerge as the rushpublican candidate taking what was a race that many thought would be a safe rushpublican win and flip if for the Democrats.

As usual...stay tuned...

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2012, 12:03 AM

36. Hit and Run

by a new poster with no supporting evidence for his/her argument. Kind of hard to take it seriously at this point.

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Response to Le Taz Hot (Reply #36)

Sun Dec 30, 2012, 02:56 PM

38. That's a lie. I am not a new poster

 

I have 281 posts.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2012, 12:07 AM

37. The Serious People predicted the GOP would retake the Senate in 2012...

...but they seemed to have completely fucked that up.

If the Repubs are going to continue to nominate batshit fundie teabagger morons for Senate seats, they're going to keep losing.

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