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In reply to the discussion: You know why maddow is deppressed? cause of this PPP POLL HERE [View all]standingtall
(2,785 posts)Last edited Tue Oct 23, 2012, 09:02 AM - Edit history (3)
They only sample 9% African Americans, and Latino's. Looked like an under sampling to me. So I decided to try, and crunch the numbers.This is what I came up with
The Combined population of those swing states is 88,906,959
The population of African Americans in those swing states is 12,0726,615
So the percentage of African Americans in those states comes to roughly about 13.6%
That means they under sampled that demographic by over 4.5%
The total number of Latino's in those swing is about 9,446,094 which is about 10.6% so they were under sampled by over a 1.5%
There you have it 2 key demographics that favor Obama were under sampled, and he still won this poll. Also there is a well documented gender gap, and I believe Obama will carry women by 10% minimum. Probably closer to 15. Not going to try and crunch anymore numbers today, but I believe Democrats have about 9% advantage nationally among registered voters, and it's probably bigger than that among those swing states. Finally as talented a Rachel is I doubt she had time to crunch the numbers on this poll while she was making a fool of Steve Schmidt on live TV. So she wasn't depressed.