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Related: About this forumU.S. Economy Added 135,000 Private-Sector Jobs in May, According to ADP National Employment Report
Last edited Fri Jun 7, 2013, 04:24 PM - Edit history (1)
No LBN this morning.
U.S. Economy Added 135,000 Private-Sector Jobs in May, According to ADP National Employment Report
Private-sector employment increased by 135,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis. (The estimated gain from March to April was revised down to 113,000).
Highlights
Small businesses (1-49 employees) +58,000
Medium businesses (50-499 employees) +39,000
Large businesses (500 or more employees) +39,000
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2013/May/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-May2013-Final-Press-Release.pdf
ADP NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT REPORT: PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT INCREASED BY 135,000 JOBS IN MAY
ROSELAND, N.J. June 5, 2013 Private sector employment increased by 135,000 jobs from April to May, according to the May ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moodys Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADPs actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Aprils job gains were revised downward to 113,000 from 119,000.
The goods-producing sector shed a total of 3,000 jobs in May. Although construction payrolls rose by 5,000 in May, on top of an increase of 8,000 jobs in April, the manufacturing industry recorded a total loss of 6,000 jobs in May. ... Service-providing industries added 138,000 jobs in May, an improvement over the April gain of 113,000. However, the gains in May are below the average monthly gain of 156,000 during the first quarter. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, professional/business services added 42,000 jobs added over the month, more than twice as many as in April. Trade/transportation/utilities recorded a gain of 31,000 jobs, while financial activities added 7,000 jobs.
"U.S. private sector employment increased by 135,000 jobs during the month of May 2013, a slight increase over the previous month of April," said Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. "The majority of new jobs in May came from the service-providing sector, which added a total of 138,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector recorded a loss of 3,000 jobs. Notably, a gain of 5,000 jobs in the construction industry during May was offset by a decline of 6,000 lost jobs in the manufacturing industry."
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moodys Analytics, said, "The job market continues to expand, but growth has slowed since the beginning of the year. The slowdown is evident across all industries and all but the largest companies. Manufacturers are reducing payrolls. The softer job market this spring is largely due to significant fiscal drag from tax increases and government spending cuts."
== == == ==
Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.
What is important about these statistics is not so much this months number, but the trend. So lets look at some earlier numbers.
BLS, for employment in April 2013:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/111634764
April payroll employment increases by 165,000; unemployment rate changes little (7.5%)
ADP, for employment in April 2013:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014470978
US Economy Added 119000 Private-Sector Jobs in April, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in March 2013:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014445294
March payroll employment edges up (+88,000); unemployment rate changes little (7.6%)
ADP, for employment in March 2013:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014442827
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in March, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in February 2013:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014419050
February payroll employment rises (+236,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)
ADP, for employment in February 2013:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/111631869
U.S. Economy Added 198,000 Private-Sector Jobs in February, According to ADP Employment Report
BLS, for employment in January 2013:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014387295
January payroll employment rises (+157,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%)
ADP, for employment in January 2013:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014384927
U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Repo
BLS, for employment in December 2012:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014356331
December payroll employment rises (+155,000); unemployment rate unchanged (7.8%)
From The Wall Street Journal. of January 4, 2013:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324374004578221291910741394.html
Economy Adds 155,000 Jobs
ADP, for employment in December 2012:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014354896
U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in November:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014328849
November payroll employment rises (+146,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)
ADP, for employment in November:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014326586
U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment Rep
ADP, for employment in October:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014286714
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in September:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256565
U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%
and
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256816
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012
The charge was made that Septembers BLS numbers were cooked. A fellow who used to head the BLS says this is not possible.
Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data Former BLS Head
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/impossible-to-manipulate-labor-survey-data-former-bls-head/
By Geoffrey Rogow
Even if the U.S. government wanted to manipulate monthly jobs figures, it would be impossible to accomplish, said a former head of the U.S. governments labor statistics agency.
.
But, Keith Hall, who served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until 2012, said in an interview Friday that there is no way someone at the agency could change any of the data from its two monthly employment surveys. The significant improvement in the unemployment rate may reflect normal statistical errors in the sampling process, he said, but that has nothing to do with manipulation.
.
Mr. Hall said the inconsistent reports reflect the different samples used in the two surveys, one focused on households the other on businesses. The establishment survey has a huge sample size of 141,000 business and agencies covering 486,000 worksites, whereas the household survey covers just 60,000 homes.
The household survey is much smaller. When you look at something like labor force and employment levels, the uncertainty of those numbers is much larger, said Mr. Hall. Within two months, the household survey could show the unemployment rate eking back up.
.
Eric Morath contributed to this article.
ADP, for employment in September:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014254238
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP
BLS, for employment in August:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014221739
August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)
An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, "disappointing." It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:
August 2012 Report
Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 201,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from June to July was revised up from the initial estimate of 163,000 to 173,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 185,000 in August, up from 156,000 in July. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 16,000 jobs in August. Manufacturing employment rose 3,000, following an increase of 6,000 in July.
ADP, for employment in August:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014220380
The ADP National Employment Report August 2012
BLS, for employment in July:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289
July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)
ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.
The ADP National Employment Report July 2012
BLS, for employment in June:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014160067
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)
Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that days Wall Street Journal.
Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks?
AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Updated July 5, 2012, 7:26 p.m. ET
By SPENCER JAKAB Here is a statistic for the politically inclined: No incumbent president has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.2% since the Great Depression.
Economists expect Friday's release of June employment data will show 95,000 new jobs added. Meantime, the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 8.2%. That may be bittersweet or just plain bitter depending on one's political slant, but it is difficult to reconcile today's rate with past periods.
The headline unemployment rate has been flattered by the number of people no longer counted in the denominator used to calculate it. For example, a comparison of jobs data between the start and end of 2011 shows the ranks of the unemployed fell by 822,000 while the number of people not in the labor force grew by a larger 1.24 million. The unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points over that time to 8.5%.
In fact, the participation ratethe share of the working-age population either working or looking for workhas fallen by 2.3 percentage points over the four years through May to 63.8%, a three-decade low. Nearly 88 million peopleabout seven times the ranks of the officially unemployedaren't part of the headline rate's calculation.
Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when Mays figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.
Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillipss appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12
ADP, for employment in June:
ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)
BLS, for employment in May:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014133487
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)
ADP, for employment in May:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014132307
May change in employment +133,000
BLS, for employment in April:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014113023
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)
ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:
There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635553
Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635507
BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635837
ADP & TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014111465
U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite
There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.
March, BLS:
Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)
March, ADP:
Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally
February, ADP:
ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man
One more thing:
So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.
http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator
Well, enough of that. On with the show.
As it has been written: The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.
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U.S. Economy Added 135,000 Private-Sector Jobs in May, According to ADP National Employment Report (Original Post)
mahatmakanejeeves
Jun 2013
OP
FogerRox
(13,211 posts)1. Send me a memo when ADP gets 3 months in a row correct.