U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in March, According to ADP National Employment Report

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Fri Apr 5, 2013, 08:41 AM - Edit history (4)

Source: ADP (Automatic Data Processing)

U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in March, According to ADP National Employment Report.

ADP national Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 158,000 Jobs in March

Roseland, N.J. – April 3, 2013 - Private sector employment increased by 158,000 jobs from February to March, according to the March ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which, is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Revisions to job gains in the two prior months were offsetting; February’s gain of 198,000 jobs was revised upward by 39,000 to 237,000, and January’s 215,000 gain was revised down by 38,000 to 177,000.
....

Goods-producing employment rose by 7,000 jobs in March, its slowest pace of growth in six months. Construction added no net jobs over the month; this follows average monthly gains of 29,000 in the three months prior. Meanwhile, manufacturers added 9,000 jobs.

Service-providing jobs increased by 151,000. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, professional/business services had the largest gain with 39,000 jobs added over the month. Trade/transportation/utilities added 22,000 jobs and financial activities added 9,000 jobs.

“The U.S. private sector added 158,000 jobs in the month of March 2013, with the majority of the new jobs created by service providers,” said Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Over the first quarter of 2013, the ADP National Employment Report has reported an average gain of 191,000 new private sector jobs per month.”





Read more: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2013/March/NER/NER-March-2013.aspx

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The estimate I heard on the radio earlier this week was that 200,000 jobs would be created in March. The ADP report says that fewer jobs than expected were actually created.

See the press release at:

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2013/March/NER/docs/ADP%20NATIONAL%20EMPLOYMENT%20REPORT_Press%20Release_2013_03.pdf

We'll get the BLS numbers on Friday.

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Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.

BLS, for employment in February 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014419050
February payroll employment rises (+236,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)

ADP, for employment in February 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/111631869
U.S. Economy Added 198,000 Private-Sector Jobs in February, According to ADP Employment Report

BLS, for employment in January 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014387295
January payroll employment rises (+157,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%)

ADP, for employment in January 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014384927
U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Repo

BLS, for employment in December 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014356331
December payroll employment rises (+155,000); unemployment rate unchanged (7.8%)

From The Wall Street Journal. of January 4, 2013:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324374004578221291910741394.html
Economy Adds 155,000 Jobs



ADP, for employment in December 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014354896
U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report

BLS, for employment in November:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014328849
November payroll employment rises (+146,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)

ADP, for employment in November:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014326586
U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment Rep

ADP, for employment in October:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014286714
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment Report

BLS, for employment in September:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256565
U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%

and

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256816
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012

The charge was made that September’s BLS numbers were cooked. A fellow who used to head the BLS says this is not possible.

Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data — Former BLS Head
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/impossible-to-manipulate-labor-survey-data-former-bls-head/

By Geoffrey Rogow

Even if the U.S. government wanted to manipulate monthly jobs figures, it would be impossible to accomplish, said a former head of the U.S. government’s labor statistics agency.
….

But, Keith Hall, who served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until 2012, said in an interview Friday that there is no way someone at the agency could change any of the data from its two monthly employment surveys. The significant improvement in the unemployment rate may reflect normal statistical errors in the sampling process, he said, but that has nothing to do with manipulation.
….

Mr. Hall said the inconsistent reports reflect the different samples used in the two surveys, one focused on households the other on businesses. The establishment survey has a huge sample size of 141,000 business and agencies covering 486,000 worksites, whereas the household survey covers just 60,000 homes.

“The household survey is much smaller. When you look at something like labor force and employment levels, the uncertainty of those numbers is much larger,” said Mr. Hall. “Within two months, the household survey could show the unemployment rate eking back up.”
….

–Eric Morath contributed to this article.

ADP, for employment in September:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014254238
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP

BLS, for employment in August:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014221739
August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)

An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, "disappointing." It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:

August 2012 Report

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 201,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from June to July was revised up from the initial estimate of 163,000 to 173,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 185,000 in August, up from 156,000 in July. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 16,000 jobs in August. Manufacturing employment rose 3,000, following an increase of 6,000 in July.

ADP, for employment in August:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014220380
The ADP National Employment Report August 2012

BLS, for employment in July:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289
July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)

ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.

The ADP National Employment Report July 2012

BLS, for employment in June:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014160067
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)

Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that day’s Wall Street Journal.

Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks‎

AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Updated July 5, 2012, 7:26 p.m. ET

By SPENCER JAKAB Here is a statistic for the politically inclined: No incumbent president has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.2% since the Great Depression.

Economists expect Friday's release of June employment data will show 95,000 new jobs added. Meantime, the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 8.2%. That may be bittersweet or just plain bitter depending on one's political slant, but it is difficult to reconcile today's rate with past periods.

The headline unemployment rate has been flattered by the number of people no longer counted in the denominator used to calculate it. For example, a comparison of jobs data between the start and end of 2011 shows the ranks of the unemployed fell by 822,000 while the number of people not in the labor force grew by a larger 1.24 million. The unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points over that time to 8.5%.

In fact, the participation rate—the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work—has fallen by 2.3 percentage points over the four years through May to 63.8%, a three-decade low. Nearly 88 million people—about seven times the ranks of the officially unemployed—aren't part of the headline rate's calculation.

Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when May’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.

Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillips’s appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12

ADP, for employment in June:

ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)

BLS, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014133487
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)

ADP, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014132307
May change in employment +133,000

BLS, for employment in April:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014113023
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)

ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:

There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635553
Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635507
BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635837
ADP & TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014111465
U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite

There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.

March, BLS:

Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)
March, ADP:

Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally

February, ADP:

ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man

One more thing:

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

[LiberalEsto]

1. And WMFJ?

I see these numbers, but I have to ask, Where's My Fucking Job? I've been out of work 4 1/2 years and can't even find freelance work.

And why are people who commute through Union Station in Washington, DC seeing masses of homeless people all around the station every day? Why aren't they getting help?

I'm not trying to put you on the spot, mahatmakanejeeves. I'm trying to ask Congress and the White House why things still seem bad to many of us.

[phleshdef]

3. Your profile says you live in Maryland where unemployment is currently 6.7%

I'm sorry for your situation and I hope you find something. But it seems based on the numbers, the people of your state are doing better than the national average and your state is in striking distance of full employment.

[LiberalEsto]

5. A lot of people here, in DC and in Virginia are getting furloughed

from federal jobs, and I don't know what other impacts the sequestration will have on employment. How that will affect the unemployment rate, I don't know.

Thanks for your kind words and encouragement.

My husband, an IT professional, wants to change jobs and has been looking since October, with not a single interview. In the past he's always been able to find a job in his area of expertise in less than a month.

If I were able to stand for 8 hours a day, I'd have had a job ages ago. At 61, with osteoarthritis and a herniated disc in my back, there is no way I can bag groceries or work as a cashier. I was a newspaper reporter for more than 25 years, and a marketing/tech writer for 8, but newspapers are constantly laying people off and I have no expectation that I'll ever work at one again.

[Comrade_McKenzie]

2. And despite the fearmongering by some, the economy continues to get better...

Thanks for the info!

[Dryvinwhileblind]

4. 8.8 million jobs lost from Sept. 2008 - Mar. 2012...

...Jobs paying btwn. $14.00 - $21.00 per hr. represented about 60% of those jobs lost, but such "mid wage" jobs have comprised only 27% of jobs gained during the "recovery". In contrast, lower paying jobs constituted roughly 58% of jobs gained. These are ALL B.L.S. numbers. So.....tell me again how well our employment numbers are, how our economy is doing. Excluding living wages, EVERYTHING has risen to historic levels, including the bullshit factor(s). When I hear, and see, that these numbers are "impossible" to rig, once again I remember the difference between painting the porch post red, where they want the focus , and the porch itself falling apart, where the hocus pocus ain't working!, unless you're focused on the hokey pokey porch post. My, how this hope, it changes.