February payroll employment rises (+236,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2013


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,000 in February, and the
unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business
services, construction, and health care.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent in February but has shown
little movement, on net, since September 2012. The number of unemployed
persons, at 12.0 million, also edged lower in February. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for whites (6.8 percent)
declined in February while the rates for adult men (7.1 percent), adult women
(7.0 percent), teenagers (25.1 percent), blacks (13.8 percent), and Hispanics
(9.6 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.1
percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See
tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
....

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised from
+196,000 to +219,000, and the change for January was revised from +157,000 to
+119,000.

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm
Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation

Statement of

Erica L. Groshen
Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Friday, March 8, 2013


Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,000 in February,
and the unemployment rate edged down from 7.9 to 7.7 percent. In
the prior 3 months, employment had risen by an average of 195,000
per month. In February, employment increased in professional and
business services, construction, and health care.

== == == ==

The increase is much more than had been expected. I had heard estimates like 150,000. Wednesday, the ADP survey was reporting 198,000. See the link a few lines down.

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.

ADP, for employment in February 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/111631869
U.S. Economy Added 198,000 Private-Sector Jobs in February, According to ADP Employment Report

BLS, for employment in January 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014387295
January payroll employment rises (+157,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%)

ADP, for employment in January 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014384927
U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Repo

BLS, for employment in December 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014356331
December payroll employment rises (+155,000); unemployment rate unchanged (7.8%)

From The Wall Street Journal. of January 4, 2013:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324374004578221291910741394.html
Economy Adds 155,000 Jobs



ADP, for employment in December 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014354896
U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report

BLS, for employment in November:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014328849
November payroll employment rises (+146,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)

ADP, for employment in November:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014326586
U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment Rep

ADP, for employment in October:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014286714
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment Report

BLS, for employment in September:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256565
U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%

and

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256816
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012

The charge was made that September’s BLS numbers were cooked. A fellow who used to head the BLS says this is not possible.

Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data — Former BLS Head
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/impossible-to-manipulate-labor-survey-data-former-bls-head/

By Geoffrey Rogow

Even if the U.S. government wanted to manipulate monthly jobs figures, it would be impossible to accomplish, said a former head of the U.S. government’s labor statistics agency.
….

But, Keith Hall, who served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until 2012, said in an interview Friday that there is no way someone at the agency could change any of the data from its two monthly employment surveys. The significant improvement in the unemployment rate may reflect normal statistical errors in the sampling process, he said, but that has nothing to do with manipulation.
….

Mr. Hall said the inconsistent reports reflect the different samples used in the two surveys, one focused on households the other on businesses. The establishment survey has a huge sample size of 141,000 business and agencies covering 486,000 worksites, whereas the household survey covers just 60,000 homes.

“The household survey is much smaller. When you look at something like labor force and employment levels, the uncertainty of those numbers is much larger,” said Mr. Hall. “Within two months, the household survey could show the unemployment rate eking back up.”
….

–Eric Morath contributed to this article.

ADP, for employment in September:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014254238
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP

BLS, for employment in August:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014221739
August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)

An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, "disappointing." It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:

August 2012 Report

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 201,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from June to July was revised up from the initial estimate of 163,000 to 173,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 185,000 in August, up from 156,000 in July. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 16,000 jobs in August. Manufacturing employment rose 3,000, following an increase of 6,000 in July.

ADP, for employment in August:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014220380
The ADP National Employment Report August 2012

BLS, for employment in July:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289
July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)

ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.

The ADP National Employment Report July 2012

BLS, for employment in June:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014160067
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)

Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that day’s Wall Street Journal.

Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks‎

AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Updated July 5, 2012, 7:26 p.m. ET

By SPENCER JAKAB Here is a statistic for the politically inclined: No incumbent president has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.2% since the Great Depression.

Economists expect Friday's release of June employment data will show 95,000 new jobs added. Meantime, the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 8.2%. That may be bittersweet or just plain bitter depending on one's political slant, but it is difficult to reconcile today's rate with past periods.

The headline unemployment rate has been flattered by the number of people no longer counted in the denominator used to calculate it. For example, a comparison of jobs data between the start and end of 2011 shows the ranks of the unemployed fell by 822,000 while the number of people not in the labor force grew by a larger 1.24 million. The unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points over that time to 8.5%.

In fact, the participation rate—the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work—has fallen by 2.3 percentage points over the four years through May to 63.8%, a three-decade low. Nearly 88 million people—about seven times the ranks of the officially unemployed—aren't part of the headline rate's calculation.

Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when May’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.

Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillips’s appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12

ADP, for employment in June:

ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)

BLS, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014133487
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)

ADP, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014132307
May change in employment +133,000

BLS, for employment in April:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014113023
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)

ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:

There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635553
Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635507
BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635837
ADP & TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014111465
U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite

There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.

March, BLS:

Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)
March, ADP:

Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally

February, ADP:

ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man

One more thing:

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, "DOL Newsletter":

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The "household survey," or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The "establishment survey," or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Encouraging numbers

I wonder how much of that big "professional and business services" jump is related to tax season temporary work, if any.

[Dawgs]

2. Who cares? The election is over.

[Life Long Dem]

23. Must be why Fox and CNN didn't report this at the top of the hour this morning

Like MSNBC did.

[Proletariatprincess]

3. Be skeptical of these numbers...

The gov. has been cooking the books on unemployment figures for years. Usually when the stock market goes up the unemployment goes up too...or so it has been. This time the stock market hit an all time high and the unemployment went down a bit. Perhaps those Wall Street types felt it was unseemly this time and made some adjustment to the statistics....it could happen. They do run the show in this country, afterall.

[bhikkhu]

13. At least read the links - the BLS numbers aren't cooked

CPI you can make a good case for, but that's a completely different method, and a completely different kind of statistic. Try to educate yourself before repeating RW talking points.

[Proletariatprincess]

38. If GW Bush was still in office you wouldn't be so critical of my comment.

Try to open your mind before excepting everything you read. I don't need education on this issue, thank you very much. Nothing this government reports under any administration can be accepted on face value. There is always an ax to grind somewhere. Maybe you will grow up someday and not be so naive.

[Comrade_McKenzie]

25. What a freepy statement. nt

[Proletariatprincess]

39. your comment makes no sense at all...

and adds nothing to the conversation that I can see...

[Tarheel_Dem]

28. Is that you, Alex?

[Norbert]

37. But what about ADPs report.

They have good news and no reason to "cook the books".

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-06/adp-says-companies-in-u-s-added-198-000-workers-in-february.html

[Proletariatprincess]

40. Why would ADP have more credibility?

I am not being contrary, I would really like to know why it has no reason to cook the books.
I am sorry to be so cynical. I wasn't always this way, but I am an old women now and I think I see things a lot clearer than I did earlier in my life. My instincts are almost always proven right eventually. So I have learned to question everything no matter how painful it may seem to contemplate that we are being lied to on a grand scale and on a regular basis.

[OKNancy]

4. Strong jobs report expected to fuel stocks

An unexpectedly robust jobs report Friday could push Wall Street into yet another record-setting gain.
U.S. stock futures were higher ahead of the opening bell.

The U.S. government reported that 236,000 jobs were added to the economy in February, and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7%. That was much better than the 170,000 expected by economists surveyed by CNNMoney.
The strengthening U.S. economy, and particularly job growth, has helped push stocks to new highs.
The Dow finished at a new record Thursday, as the blue chip index and the S&P 500 advanced for a fifth straight day.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/08/investing/premarkets/index.html?iid=mkt_SF_news

[Kingofalldems]

5. Obama is a communist, a muslin and an atheist

[James48]

8. but I thought "muslin" is a type of cloth n/t

[BumRushDaShow]

19. Not in the RW Faux Snooze world.

It is the place where Nazis are "libruls" and "legitimate rape" is the only thing that produces life.

[onehandle]

6. They were pre-reporting 7.8 yesterday. So that's pretty good. nt

[jpak]

7. Debby Downer Disapproves.

yup

[OverDone]

9. DailyJobCuts.com

The numbers are what they are.

The real economy is what we live everyday

Layoff Numbers:
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

[Beacool]

11. I had never seen that site.

You just managed to depress me.

[OverDone]

14. More aware

Sorry, was hoping to make you more aware than anything.

[Beacool]

20. I know, I didn't mean that it was your fault.

It is what it is, but the info. is depressing. So many closings and lay-offs.

[bhikkhu]

16. That's called turn-over

where some businesses close and some open. Where some people lose jobs, some people get jobs.

The most important numbers overall are how the two balance. It sucks to lose a job, but its better to lose a job if you can go get another job, than if no one is hiring. That's why we look at overall job numbers - jobs lost vs jobs gained.

Looking just a jobs lost is what the repugs do, when there's a black democrat in office.

[OverDone]

17. Totally Agree

Its just one side of the Job situation.
And as you said several are just business as usual.

Its just a reference, use it as you may or not at all.

[dmallind]

18. No that's half the numbers - you need to look at hiring too.

Which was, obviously, higher this month than layoffs.

If layoffs told the whole story, it would be in a world in which it is literally impossible to be hired after losing a job. Since I've done that 4 times myself and since we have an increase in employment, that is dotally and statistically rendered the nonsense it must be.

People live getting jobs every day too.

[OverDone]

22. Already Agreed with that

Your side, one side of the situation.

Love to see a hiring site, besides a bunch of listing. Insurance Agent - 80,000 listing worldwide.
Like to see some more local companies.

[Drunken Irishman]

33. We're never going to have an economy where people aren't laid off...

It happens. It sucks. It's awful. But that's just life. Even in the 90s, when the economy was growing like crazy, you could find a ton of people who were laid off or struggling. The hope with an economy is that the market is good enough so that those who lose their job can quickly find another. I don't know if we're there yet - but the unemployment rate dropping and pushing 250,000 job gains in a month is a way to get to that point.

[n2doc]

10. If it wasn't for Austerity at the fed and state/local government level, we would be in the 6's

And I would be willing to bet the deficit would be lower, with the extra people working and buying things (this making companies make and hire more) more than offsetting their salaries.

If it wern't for republicans, we would be out of this mess.

[BootinUp]

12. If only the public sector was also adding jobs instead of shedding them. Imagine. nt

[Beacool]

15. This is good news!!!

Unfortunately, it's still difficult to find a job for the people who have been unemployed for a long-term.

Long-Term Unemployment Inches Up In February Jobs Report

WASHINGTON -- The national unemployment rate ticked down to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent in February as the economy added a relatively impressive 236,000 jobs, the government announced Friday. But the report didn't have great news on the long-term unemployment front.

The number of Americans who have been jobless for at least six months inched up to 4.8 million after declining slightly in each of the previous months since October. The percentage of unemployed Americans out of work six months or longer increased to 40.2 percent after dipping below 40 percent in December and January for the first time since 2009.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/08/long-term-unemployment_n_2818829.html

[iamthebandfanman]

21. just imagine if they started rehiring gov workers..

what the official unemployment number would be...

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

24. The Repukes can't be too happy about this.

Right now Paul Ryan is thinking about creative ways to sabotage the economy.

[brentspeak]

26. Real jobs or McJobs?

Full-time employment that pay a solid salary plus benefits...or temp jobs that pay crap and no benefits?

Funny how the cheerleaders never complain that both today's Democrats and Republican presidents and members of Congress don't mind having the U-3 (rather than the more honest U-6) as the Official Unemployment figure.

[Tarheel_Dem]

29. "Employment increased in professional and business services, construction, and health care"

Contained in the article you should've read, but extrapolate what you will, as I'm sure you'll do anyway. But these do sound like "solid salary" jobs. I know that depresses the hell out of ya, but there it is!

[Johnny2X2X]

30. Wages

Average hourly wage increased from $23.78 to $23.82 an hour.

[davidn3600]

32. Oh... well then why do we need to increase the minimum wage?

I guess if the average wage in $23.82 an hour and rising, we don't need to raise the minimum wage.

All must be well.

[phleshdef]

36. Wow, a whole field of strawmen there.

[brentspeak]

35. That's for existing jobs

My question focused on the new jobs.

[stevenleser]

41. You understand that this must mean the new jobs averaged higher than existing jobs, right? nt

[davidn3600]

27. It's meaningless if most of these new jobs are at or near minimum wage

The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

[Johnny2X2X]

31. You sound like a low information Republican voter dude.

Wages increased, the jobs created were in high paying sectors. The housing market was largely responsible for Americans' net gain of over $1 Trillion in net wealth in the 4th quarter on 2012.

Are we where we need to be? No. Are we headed to where we need to be? Yes.

[Drunken Irishman]

34. It's the typical DU downers...

Who have to pooh-pooh any good news. It happens a lot on here. You'll get used to it!