U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%

[flpoljunkie]

Source: Talkingpointsmemo Livewire

U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%

IGOR BOBIC 8:32 AM EDT, FRIDAY OCTOBER 5, 2012

The U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate falling from 8.1% to 7.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics.

The August jobs report showed the economy gained 96,000 jobs, with the national unemployment rate falling to 8.1%.

Read more: http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/us-economy-added-114-000-jobs-in-september

[babylonsister]

1. And per m$nbc, this is a bad thing. nt

[flpoljunkie]

2. Yep. No surprise there. Joe spinning hard to dump on the 7.8%.

[babylonsister]

3. Joe spinning hard on everything! Kinda pathetic. nt

[flpoljunkie]

4. The CNBC guy says it's a very big win for President Obama to say the unemployment rate is 7.8%

[kelliekat44]

45. You know, at some point, one has to call the RW on their absolute hate for anything good happening

for the country. They seem to hate any positive news at all but seemed to glory in the attack on our people in Bengazi. What is wrong with the RW pundits and their followers? They aren't happy unless something bad is happening. Just follow the stock market. Whenever it's good news for main street, Wall street tanks. When workers are suffering Wall Street does well. If a company is suffering their answer seems to be throw the workers under the nearest bus and "harvest" the maximum profit you can.

[Robbins]

5. Are you kidding me

We did better than In august

we are no longer In 8 percent unemployment.We are back to where we were before Obama walked through the door.

[flpoljunkie]

7. And more people were looking for work in September--.1% more, that's 418,000.

[CTyankee]

6. Dr. Krugman kinda predicted as much. A couple of weeks ago or so he wrote a column

about how inevitably consumer demand has to grow as things wear out, technology improves and makes some things obsolete, etc. This is inevitable.

[flpoljunkie]

9. The fact that the unemployment rate has fallen to 7.8% is what the American people will get

[CTyankee]

16. Of course. Better jobs numbers and lower unemployment rate.

going in the right direction...

[politicaljack78]

35. Moving Forward. n/t

[Inuca]

8. Also

@ezraklein

114k jobs in September. Unemployment rate falls to 7.8. 86k more jobs in Aug and July than we thought.

And

@ezraklein

Also, employment-to-pop ratio and labor force participation are both up. So drop outs are not why unemployment rate went down

[skeewee08]

10. 7.8% that's what i'm talking!!!!!!

and it would be lower if the rethugs in congress will pass the job bill that they promised in 2010

[Cosmocat]

20. BIG TIME!

Though there is one more report that might clear next month, THIS is the number that will be set for the home drive now.

[OldDem2012]

28. Actually, the GOP promised to create jobs in return for the massive tax cuts....

...for the wealthy and large corporations when those acts were passed under the Bush Administration in 2001 and 2003.

Gee, who would have thought they were lying for personal financial gain?

[politicaljack78]

36. and allow us to continue Moving Forward ! n/t

[littlemissmartypants]

11. Great Catch, flpoljunkie...

Fantastic News!!! We are going to win!!

[flpoljunkie]

12. Morning Joe's Scarborough now insisting the 7.8% figure has to be wrong!

Ha!

[winstars]

14. Saw that, I gotta go to the gym, wish I could watch the last 10 minutes of him crying!!!

"Someone gotta tell me how they arrive at these numbers"

The same way they do each month when they were bad and you loved them asshole!!!

[JDPriestly]

32. It may be. These numbers are often corrected.

But the general mood in the country is that there is slow, painfully slow improvement. We were expecting inflation and a double dip, according to conservatives. So this is a good sign.

We are moving in the right direction, slowly but surely.

[helpisontheway]

13. Oh I would LOVE to see Joe Scarborough's face! However, I'm avoiding the shows until they stop

talking about the debate. Perhaps I will turn it on mute just so I can see his pathetic face!

[politicaljack78]

37. I caught it while running errands.

He was incredulous. It's as if someone, perhaps a former intern, had taken a pan and smacked him across the face. The man was dumbstruck and demanded a clarification on the accounting. How could such be???? It's cause the country is Moving Forward !

[helpisontheway]

15. Exactly winstar! No questions asked when they numbers were bad! nt

[CTyankee]

17. Poor Joe! He had his sugar high yesterday, only to have these numbers dash all his

hopes for a glide to Romney victory!

I love it when Joe Scar is in agony...

[goclark]

41. How sweet it is!

Boo - Hoo BoringJoe, Boo Hoo Hoo!

[jsr]

18. Game over for Romney.

[flpoljunkie]

19. TPM adds July jobs report revised up from 141,000 to 181,000 and August from 96,000 to 142,000.

The labor force rose by 418,000 jobs, while the labor force participation rate was little changed at 63.6 percent.

The July jobs report was revised from +141,000 to +181,000, and the August jobs report was revised from +96,000 to +142,000.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/us-economy-added-114-000-jobs-in-september

[llmart]

21. Another point on the economy......

and I'm sure others have noticed - when I checked my IRA yesterday which I only do about once a month - it had gained $10,000 in one month! I haven't added anything to it, so as a retired person on a fixed income I am very pleased with how my IRA has gained.

[onehandle]

22. Plus Numbers = No pResident Rmoney nt

[demwing]

23. Are these numbers subject to revision

the way weekly numbers often are?

[mathematic]

26. Yes, two revisions

One in each of the next two monthly jobs reports. For example, both July and August numbers were revised up about 40-50k each.

The next jobs report is Nov 2 and it will contain revisions for August and September. If economic reports are generally positive in Oct, as they were in Sept, then you can expect the Aug & Sept numbers to be revised up.

[TahitiNut]

24. That's ACTUALLY 200,000 jobs when ALL increases are aggregated.

When the 114,000 September jobs are added to the (restated/adjusted) 46,000 August jobs and (restated/adjusted) 40,000 July jobs, we get 200,000 more jobs than previously reported.

It's always essential to comprehend what the statistics are describing. Without that fundamental comprehension, then the narrow parroting of cherry-picked numbers is deceitful.

[Light63]

25. The least we could do...

Well now! Great news! Although our new optometric practice is not doing great, but we are very happy that we have contributed a small portion to the work force in July/August. I've often joked with the spouse, "We are building back America one step at a time!"

Obama all-the-way!

[bhikkhu]

27. And one other thing to remember about the labor participation rate:

Its supposed to be falling, as the baby boom generation begins to retire



- also meaning the old saw about the US needing 150,000 new jobs per month to keep up with population growth is not true, and hasn't been for some time. The job creation we have had under Obama and the recovery from recession really is better than the consistently gloomy reporting has portrayed it.

[lillypaddle]

29. That is very welcome news

So sorry rmoney.

[magic59]

30. The ex CEO of GE said Obama made those numbers up

because he failed so bad at the debate. Now, a big rich guy like that wouldn't lie, would he?

[geardaddy]

34. Jack Welch is a d-bag.

[Third Doctor]

31. This great news! The traitorous repubs are hating this right now.

[politicaljack78]

38. They hate the fact, we are Moving Forward ! n/t

[Kingofalldems]

33. Isn't this great Cave people?

[mahatmakanejeeves]

39. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2012


The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm
payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing
but changed little in most other major industries.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 7.8 percent in September.
For the first 8 months of the year, the rate held within a narrow range of 8.1
and 8.3 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.1 million, decreased by
456,000 in September. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.3 percent),
adult women (7.0 percent), and whites (7.0 percent) declined over the month.
The unemployment rates for teenagers (23.7 percent), blacks (13.4 percent), and
Hispanics (9.9 percent) were little changed. The jobless rate for Asians, at
4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), fell over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2,
and A-3.)
....

The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks declined by 302,000 over
the month to 2.5 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for
27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.8 million and accounted for 40.1
percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

Read more: Link: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

- - - - - - - -

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers. We’ll start with the ADP estimate.

ADP, for employment in September:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014254238
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP

U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP National Employment Report

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 162,000 from August to September, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gains in previous months were revised lower: The July increase was reduced by 17,000 to an increase of 156,000, while the August increase was reduced by 12,000 to an increase of 189,000.

Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 144,000 in September, down from 175,000 in August. Employment in the private, good-producing sector added 18,000 jobs in the September. Manufacturing employment rose 4,000, while construction employment rose 10,000, the strongest since March when mild winter weather was boosting construction activity. The financial services sector added 7,000 jobs in September, marking the fourteenth consecutive monthly gain.

BLS, for employment in August:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014221739
August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)

An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, "disappointing." It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:

August 2012 Report

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 201,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from June to July was revised up from the initial estimate of 163,000 to 173,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 185,000 in August, up from 156,000 in July. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 16,000 jobs in August. Manufacturing employment rose 3,000, following an increase of 6,000 in July.

ADP, for employment in August:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014220380
The ADP National Employment Report August 2012

BLS, for employment in July:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289
July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)

ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.

The ADP National Employment Report July 2012

BLS, for employment in June:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014160067
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)

Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that day’s Wall Street Journal.

Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks?

AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Updated July 5, 2012, 7:26 p.m. ET

By SPENCER JAKAB Here is a statistic for the politically inclined: No incumbent president has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.2% since the Great Depression.

Economists expect Friday's release of June employment data will show 95,000 new jobs added. Meantime, the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 8.2%. That may be bittersweet or just plain bitter depending on one's political slant, but it is difficult to reconcile today's rate with past periods.

The headline unemployment rate has been flattered by the number of people no longer counted in the denominator used to calculate it. For example, a comparison of jobs data between the start and end of 2011 shows the ranks of the unemployed fell by 822,000 while the number of people not in the labor force grew by a larger 1.24 million. The unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points over that time to 8.5%.

In fact, the participation rate—the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work—has fallen by 2.3 percentage points over the four years through May to 63.8%, a three-decade low. Nearly 88 million people—about seven times the ranks of the officially unemployed—aren't part of the headline rate's calculation.

Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when May'’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.

Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillips’s appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12

ADP, for employment in June:

ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)

BLS, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014133487
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)

ADP, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014132307
May change in employment +133,000

BLS, for employment in April:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014113023
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)

ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:

There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635553
Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635507
BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635837
ADP & TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014111465
U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite

There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.

March, BLS:

Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)
March, ADP:

Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally

February, ADP:

ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man

One more thing:

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, "DOL Newsletter":

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The "household survey," or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The "establishment survey," or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

40. Former GE CEO Welch Says White House Manipulates Jobs Data

Former GE CEO Welch Says White House Manipulates Jobs Data

Tim Catts, Bloomberg Copyright 2012 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Tim Catts, ©2012 Bloomberg News
Published 7:59 a.m., Friday, October 5, 2012

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Former General Electric Co. Chief Executive Officer Jack Welch accused the Obama administration on Twitter of manipulating today’s employment data for political advantage.

“Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can’t debate so change numbers,” Welch, 76, wrote in a message posted immediately after the U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy added 114,000 jobs last month. That pushed the unemployment rate to 7.8 percent, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009.

[ThoughtCriminal]

42. Average number of jobs created per month during Bush Administration

20,000

20,000!

And the GOP wants to go back to those policies?

[Liberal_in_LA]

46. and many months with huge negative numbers.

[animalcrackers]

43. Kind of off topic

But I can see why Willard retracted his 47% statements last night. He was probably hoping to take some of the media attention away from a good jobs report, and if it was bad he could pick up on it anyways. Regardless, good news for the country

[davidn3600]

44. What kind of jobs though?

Are these jobs with a livable wage?

Dont mean to rain on a parade but if these gains are mainly minimum wage, part-time, or seasonal workers.....im not all that thrilled.

[Norbert]

47. Legit Question

I live in the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State area and I can tell you Cincinnati went from 11.7% unemployment at the beginning of 2010 to 7.6 percent in August. We are still waiting on the September figures. I was one of those 11.7% and I'm happy to report that I have been part of the August 92.4%. I lost my permanent full time job while Dubya was in office and have now a permanent full time job during the Obama Administration not too surprizingly. My new perm job puts the old job to shame. If anything I was underemployed before as I was trying to hang on to a job I hated. I still get calls from job recruiters about 2 times a week.

I may be far from objective on the subject but you can see it in Cincinnati. Stores are more crowded, car dealers are busy and more homes in the area are putting "sold" signs up. Sales breeds employment which breed more sales. There is still room for improvement in Cincinnati but we have come a long way in less than three years.

If Cincinnati is to some degree a reflection of the country I would say many of these positions filled are good paying career positions like the one I have. I would say next month you will see more seasonal positions adding to the employment figures as Macys, Kohls and the other big stores ramp up for Christmas. 7.7%? 7.6? Maybe, but I'll let Rmoney and the Right Wing crazies worry about that.