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Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:56 PM

Pew freak out. Nate Silver says, "Get a grip."

According to Twitter, Barack Obama went from a huge favorite at 1 PM to a huge underdog at 4 PM. Get a grip, people.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/255412550932516864


Pew has Romney ahead by 4 points among likely voters, tied among registered voters (updated)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021495453


Pew Poll states the obvious: If actual electorate is R+3, Obama loses

<...>

Well, let's look in Pew's documentation (linked above), particularly in a section entitled, "Patters of Voter Support, September-October."

Did Romney's debate performance pluck some Democratic support away from Obama? Nope. The president's lead is virtually unchanged within his own party, from 93-5 in September to 94-5 now.

Did Romney strengthen himself among Republicans? Hardly, these numbers shifted from 92-5 to 91-7.

Did Romney achieve a major breakthrough among Independents? Only if you consider a 2-3 point shift within each candidate major (from Obama leading 45-44 to Romney ahead 46-42).

<...>

In other words, we've learned something we should already have known. That if the electorate on Nov. 6 is 3 percentage points more

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141808/-Pew-Poll-states-the-obvious-If-actual-electorate-is-R-3-Obama-loses

The independent numbers are wrong there (it's actually Obama 48, Romney 47), but point taken.

PEW! ...somethin' stinks!

I know there's probably a lot of sensitivity about going into the "polls are skewed" thing, especially when approaching a respected pollster like Pew. So I won't unskew at all...I'll just present some demographic info from page 14 of the PDF of the today's poll showing Romney ahead by 4, and you can make your own judgments or calculations as you see fit in the comments:

Reps: 392
Dems: 361

50+ voters outnumber everyone else more than 2-1

White (non-Hispanic) voters surveyed: 869
Everyone else: 173 (!!!)


Note: This is from the LIKELY VOTER column.



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141800/-PEW-somethin-stinks


35 replies, 4795 views

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Arrow 35 replies Author Time Post
Reply Pew freak out. Nate Silver says, "Get a grip." (Original post)
ProSense Oct 2012 OP
gabeana Oct 2012 #1
patrice Oct 2012 #24
theKed Oct 2012 #2
The Magistrate Oct 2012 #3
Blaukraut Oct 2012 #4
patrice Oct 2012 #21
spanone Oct 2012 #5
winstars Oct 2012 #6
nc4bo Oct 2012 #10
ailsagirl Oct 2012 #15
Glimmer of Hope Oct 2012 #17
Cha Oct 2012 #32
SidDithers Oct 2012 #7
mzmolly Oct 2012 #8
GoneOffShore Oct 2012 #9
SidDithers Oct 2012 #11
ProSense Oct 2012 #12
Cha Oct 2012 #30
kevink077 Oct 2012 #13
SunSeeker Oct 2012 #19
kevink077 Oct 2012 #23
DisabledAmerican Oct 2012 #29
meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #14
Gabi Hayes Oct 2012 #18
meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #25
Barack_America Oct 2012 #16
reformist2 Oct 2012 #28
Barack_America Oct 2012 #33
patrice Oct 2012 #20
patrice Oct 2012 #22
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #26
bluestateguy Oct 2012 #27
Cha Oct 2012 #31
Gabi Hayes Oct 2012 #34
Gabi Hayes Oct 2012 #35

Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:58 PM

1. comon sense view

no need to be running down the hall with your hair on fire, like some others on DU

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Response to gabeana (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:56 PM

24. Some of us here need to learn how to see what is happening, not just what we want to see, because

we predicted it one way or another and, therefore, want to be right.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:59 PM

2. Yeah...

It's pretty heavily weighted towards older, white folks (compare white to black and hispanic numbers, and the 50+ age group to all the others).

As you were, everybody.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:01 PM

3. Interesting, My Friend

We will see how the week develops.

"Come back with your shield, or on it."

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:07 PM

4. It's the media narrative now

Notice how all evening news led with the 'Romney is ahead' and 'Debate was game changer' themes, showing the Pew poll as evidence. We all know that, while the Pew poll may well be accurate, it was taken during the three days following the debate, where the post Romney-Gasm glow was still in full bloom. We also know that the trackers Gallup, Ras, Rand, and Ipsos, are more representative of the current voter sentiment. But don't count on the MSM to accurately report on ALL polls.

The scary thing here is that the media narrative will drive the national mood. If Romney is being presented as the winner and comeback kid, the American people will believe it and thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

There is not a lot of time left to put a stop to Romney's MEDIA momentum, and there will be no help from said media whatsoever. This wound was in part self-inflicted. Obama needed to be stronger in the debate, and he blew it. No use in crying over spilled milk, however. There is no margin for error going forward. The upcoming debates must be flawless, and there absolutely cannot be any gaffes on our side.

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Response to Blaukraut (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:40 PM

21. +1

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:08 PM

5. K&r...

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:11 PM

6. Don't worry, Mittens is due to say or do something very stupid any time now!!!

I normally would not rely on my opponent making an error but he is consistent, give him a few days, he will deliver.

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Response to winstars (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:27 PM

10. I thought that foreign policy nonsense he spewed today fit the bill quite nicely. nm

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Response to winstars (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:16 PM

15. He's WAY overdue

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Response to winstars (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:20 PM

17. Do not forget about his tax returns!

What is he hiding?

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Response to winstars (Reply #6)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 06:05 AM

32. It's not what he said..

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:15 PM

7. Ideology is pretty striking too...

Conservative - 530
Moderate - 420
Liberal - 221

So, they interviewed 2 1/2 times as many Conservatives as Liberals?

Makes you go hmmmm..

Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:18 PM

8. Yep.

I noted that as well.

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:22 PM

9. You, ProSense and Nate Silver - the lifeboats of reason in a sea of hysteria

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Response to GoneOffShore (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:27 PM

11. Pro's in league by herself...

I'm just here to be entertained. But thanks for the kind words

Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:00 PM

12. Thanks. No woman is an island.

I've been inspired by Mitterature.



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Response to SidDithers (Reply #11)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:50 AM

30. Thank Goodness for Pro! And, I thought you

were here to Entertain!

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Response to GoneOffShore (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:51 PM

13. the hysteria is disgusting

Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow did way more to hurt Obama them Obama did. Obama did fine in the debate and his answers were sound. I will not watch MSNBC as I cannot stomach them anymore, their hysteria is nauseating. Obama will come on strong this last month and win, take it to the bank.

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Response to kevink077 (Reply #13)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:50 PM

19. Agreed. Rachel cited that PEW poll tonight without qualification.

And again stated emphatically that Romney won the debate and Obama lost the debate.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #19)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:51 PM

23. Rachel

She would just assume have Romney win to teach the left a "lesson". Her dramatics are over the top and the left needs to just stop watching. These clowns are really hurting the Democratic party. Her and Hysterical Chris need to take a good month long vacation. Lets get some rational people on the air.

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Response to kevink077 (Reply #13)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:21 AM

29. The Doomsayers here do more to hurt

 

Apparently the so called DU Jury hasn't learned that this is a Outlier poll. I tried to report one who used the poll as a excuse to down Obama's Debating. It's sad that the behavior is allowed when a Outlier poll is the issue. I mean seriously I thought this place was suppose to be Dem why are people allowed to use a horrible poll that people have proven as a outlier to attack Obama? The excuse that they are freaking out is not true they know what they are doing when blaming Obama. Sunday was a great bounce for Obama with the Job numbers.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:09 PM

14. How is that even a relevant poll?

Why is that considered a good sampling? I thought Pew was supposed to be a credible outfit. That doesn't look credible at all. It's crap, it's junk.

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Response to meadowlark5 (Reply #14)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:49 PM

18. do you know who founded Pew? right wing maniac, that's who. FDR hater, gave money

to the Liberty League and then the John Birch Society!

dunno what their current deal is, but their provenance is suspect, to say the least

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Response to Gabi Hayes (Reply #18)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:01 AM

25. Thanks for that info!

I did not know that. I've heard it referred to as credible but that poll sure didn't seem credible.

Good to know.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:17 PM

16. Southern respondents seem a bit over-represented as well.

449 vs. 219 from the Northeast, for example.

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Response to Barack_America (Reply #16)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:27 AM

28. 40% of their respondents are from the South, but only 33% of the US population is in the South.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #28)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 07:18 AM

33. Another poll to tell me what disproportionally rich, white, Southern conservatives feel...

...about the election.

Great. Very useful.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:06 PM

20. Out of sample size of 1112, 792 with incomes $30K & above = 70% of the sample.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:44 PM

22. Sorry! This makes so little sense, it looks like somekind of trap to me. nt

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:03 AM

26. It is a bad sample

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:21 AM

27. In 2010 the electorate was even betwe D and R

As it was in 2004, when the Bush team had an excellent turnout operation.

2008 was +7 (D). That is not likely again.

There has never been a +3 (R) electorate in the history of exit polling, at least in presidential elections.

I think a +2 or +3 (D) is probably more likely. Yes Obama has lost some ground; that is not in dispute. But that would only be an accurate poll if that was what the electorate looked like.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:59 AM

31. Tweet from Jeff Gauvin

Jeff Gauvin

@JeffersonObama According to the BELTWAY & Pew Narrative (based on their cross tabs) only white men over 50 WILL VOTE pic.twitter.com/9jJ7WsMu #POLLS #p2


http://theobamadiary.com/2012/10/08/chavez/#comments

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 08:08 PM

34. another rotten Pew poll comes out. this thread should be used in conjunction, if their methodology

is the same as on this joke

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Response to Gabi Hayes (Reply #34)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 08:15 PM

35. wtf? this thread isn't coming up......

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