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Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:17 PM

Pew has Romney ahead by 4 points among likely voters, tied among registered voters (updated)

The gain is almost entirely among white Republicans.





http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

Obama lost two points among independents, Romney gained one point.

Obama lost 7 points among blacks, Romney lost 4 points.

Obama gained a point among Democrats, and Romney lost a point.

Obama lost 5 points among Republicans, and Romney gained 3 point.

Updated to add, poll was unskewed:

Current LV

Republican 36 percent
Democrat 31 percent
Independent 30 percent

September LV

Republican 29 percent
Democrat 39 percent
Independent 30 percent


Current RV

Republican 33 percent
Democrat 32 percent
Independent 31 percent


September RV

Republican 28 percent
Democrat 37 percent
Independent 31 percent

http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/10-8-12%20Political%20Release.pdf

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Reply Pew has Romney ahead by 4 points among likely voters, tied among registered voters (updated) (Original post)
ProSense Oct 2012 OP
boxman15 Oct 2012 #1
DisabledAmerican Oct 2012 #2
Roselma Oct 2012 #5
Care Acutely Oct 2012 #50
phleshdef Oct 2012 #3
ProSense Oct 2012 #7
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2012 #4
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2012 #24
gabeana Oct 2012 #33
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2012 #65
BeyondGeography Oct 2012 #6
ProSense Oct 2012 #10
Cattledog Oct 2012 #8
ProSense Oct 2012 #12
alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #16
sharp_stick Oct 2012 #41
andym Oct 2012 #35
JaneyVee Oct 2012 #49
Care Acutely Oct 2012 #57
WestWisconsinDem Oct 2012 #68
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #9
ProSense Oct 2012 #17
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #26
nc4bo Oct 2012 #61
boxman15 Oct 2012 #11
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #13
boxman15 Oct 2012 #19
DisabledAmerican Oct 2012 #21
Puddy Oct 2012 #45
ProSense Oct 2012 #46
Puddy Oct 2012 #47
DisabledAmerican Oct 2012 #20
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #40
reformist2 Oct 2012 #14
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #15
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #18
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #23
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #30
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #22
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #28
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #32
ProSense Oct 2012 #36
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #37
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #53
Jennicut Oct 2012 #58
winstars Oct 2012 #60
reformist2 Oct 2012 #25
Mass Oct 2012 #27
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #34
tallahasseedem Oct 2012 #29
BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #31
andym Oct 2012 #38
7worldtrade Oct 2012 #39
MFM008 Oct 2012 #42
DisabledAmerican Oct 2012 #43
ProSense Oct 2012 #44
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #56
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #48
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #52
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #55
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #59
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #66
renate Oct 2012 #64
hifiguy Oct 2012 #51
ProSense Oct 2012 #54
underpants Oct 2012 #62
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #63
reformist2 Oct 2012 #67

Response to ProSense (Original post)


Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:19 PM

2. out liner

 

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Response to DisabledAmerican (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:21 PM

5. I hope so. Gallup has Obama up by 5 today.

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Response to DisabledAmerican (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:11 PM

50. That's "outlier"

As in, to lie outside of normal range. Just a friendly FYI. Carry on.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:20 PM

3. I don't believe the African American change is reality.

 

I don't question Pew's methodology. I think they are a credible polling firm. But I don't believe Romney really gained 7 percent more of the African American vote.

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Response to phleshdef (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:22 PM

7. No he lost support, but so did Obama n/t

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:20 PM

4. this sucks. look at those women numbers. time to show the real romney

who wants to get rid of planned parenthood and bomb innocents in Iran

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:35 PM

24. PHEW...they just explained it on MSNBC

Obama was up before and after the debate. The debate bounce for a couple days was Romney's. The Pew poll measured this - what they said was Obama's worse polling period in the last week.

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #24)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:41 PM

33. So is this good news for Obama

meaning this is just noise from the debate

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Response to gabeana (Reply #33)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:33 PM

65. lord I hope so. Fallout from debate I think is real to some degree

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:22 PM

6. 88% of the black vote...poll falls apart right there

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:23 PM

10. It's post-debate high

for Republicans.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:22 PM

8. Romney the new Reagan?

Who would have thought!

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Response to Cattledog (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:25 PM

12. No, he lost a point among Democrats

There are no Romney Democrats, just the typical right-leaning group of about 8 percent.

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Response to Cattledog (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:28 PM

16. Say Reagan again...you haven't quite spammed the entire board with that opinion

 

You should say it at least 50 more times!

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:47 PM

41. We should start a pool

see if he actually makes it that far.

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Response to Cattledog (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:41 PM

35. Romney thought this!

He's been saying its Reagan/Carter 2.

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Response to Cattledog (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:09 PM

49. If Romney is the new Reagan that means he would triple the deficit & size of Govt

 

Just like Reagan did.

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Response to Cattledog (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:21 PM

57. Well - just LOOK AT YOU and your Reagan-ness, Reaganocity, whatever.

"This race is closer than you think. If you don't think Obama's in trouble you're deluding yourself. The 2008 mojo is gone. If he wins by 2 million I'd be surprised...this just might be another 2000. "
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=580591

"Liberals don't read."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1138790

"No apology. Only spineless liberals apologize."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=33985

"Pew a 9pt swing to Romney up 49-45
Ouch! Reagan type swing!"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251126408

"Carter Reagn type change...O is in trouble."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=126430

and of course this one, "Romney the new Reagan?"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1495497

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Response to Cattledog (Reply #8)


Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:22 PM

9. I think this poll does not make sense.

 

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:28 PM

17. Evidently,

Republicans like liars. Still, this chart is telling.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #17)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:36 PM

26. Biden will have to kick some but thursday.

 

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Response to ProSense (Reply #17)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:10 PM

61. Romney? New ideas? gtfoohwtbs.

They are a combo of 30 year old trickle down bs coupled with whatever populist idea Obama is running with at any given moment.

The only thing new is that some of it is coming out of WilLIARd's mouth.

Some people are so very incredibly stupid.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:23 PM

11. This poll is probably an outlier. So is MSNBC's most likely.

What we're looking at now is probably what Gallup says they've seen the past 3 days (not the 7 day average) which is an extremely close, virtually tied election.

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Response to boxman15 (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:27 PM

13. Are all the polls outliers?

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #13)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:28 PM

19. No. But it's very hard for me to believe either candidate is up by 4-5 points right now.

47-47 seems about right, which is what Gallup has seen the past few days.

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Response to boxman15 (Reply #19)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:29 PM

21. WRONG Obama is ahead in the latest polls stop spreading the 47 point lie

 

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Response to DisabledAmerican (Reply #21)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:59 PM

45. I don't understand.....

Whats the lie? According to Gallup's post-debate Oct. 4th-6th poll it's a tie. ][link:http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx|

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Response to Puddy (Reply #45)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:03 PM

46. Here ya go, Puddy:

Today's Gallup - 50 Obama to 45 Romney
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021494231

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

Just for you, and welcome.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #46)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:07 PM

47. Thanks for the response I will ignore the 3 day poll.... Thanks again!

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Response to boxman15 (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:28 PM

20. There is no TIE Obama is ahead in all polls

 

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Response to DisabledAmerican (Reply #20)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:46 PM

40. Do you realize what OP you're writing that in?

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:27 PM

14. How is Obama -6 overall when he's only -2 among independents?? Thse poll numbers are crap.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)


Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:28 PM

18. Hmmm. This poll is based on REGISTERED voters, not LIKELY voters...

....big difference, don't you think?

Additionally, I'm having a hard time understanding where they found the 7% change among blacks. That doesn't make any sense to me...I'd have to see the numbers and demographics involved.

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Response to OldDem2012 (Reply #18)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:30 PM

23. Re-read the chart

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #23)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:39 PM

30. How big was the sample in all categories? nt.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:30 PM

22. This poll is through October 7. The job numbers haven't taken affect yet.

 

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #22)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:38 PM

28. October 7th was YESTERDAY...

I'm more curious about the daily distribution of samples -- although the poll is entirely post-debate, it includes both the Friday which other polls suggest was a big pro-Romney day, and a Sunday which, likewise, seems to have been a big Obama day. How many samples in the Pew survey were taken on each day? If approximately equal, that could indicate we've still got a problem. If more samples were taken Thursday-Friday, it could provide a more logical explanation. In any event, I'd be leery of any non-tracker taken before today -- there was simply too much volatility from Thursday through Sunday to draw conclusions from a poll taken sometime in that period.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #28)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:41 PM

32. Right. That's my point. The job numbers were out Friday. It'll take some time for those job numbers

 

to reflect true opinion. We need to wait a few days.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #28)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:42 PM

36. You're making good points.

I think the RW is driving everyone crazy. I'm still pissed that Gravis is still being factored into the averages.

RCP has two Gallup tracking numbers, and one includes the other.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #28)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:43 PM

37. What Do You Think Of My Conclusion In Post 34?

.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #37)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:17 PM

53. Semi-agree...

If few of the Pew numbers came from Sunday, and most from Thursday-Friday, it makes perfect sense. We can't know that, though, even if there are grounds to suspect it.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #28)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:26 PM

58. Only a little over a hundred were done Sunday.

Most of it was Thursday through Friday and some on Saturday per Huffington Post

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #58)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:48 PM

60. Right, HP says 1046 of 1201 interviews taken Thursday-Saturday. Most probably from Thurs and Friday

We need new polling to see what really happened. Rmoney did well in the debate, no doubt, and then the jobs numbers and the almost fact checking by the MSM stopped his mojo. So if most had us down Thursday and Friday, that shit changed by the weekend. We need to calm down and see more polls come out. Hanging on every thing Gallup and Pew and Ras does and says and when they polled is fun but more data is needed to see just WTF happened after the debates... Lets see what shakes out by Wednesday and then hopefully Joe opens up a can of Whoop Ass on Lying Ryan...

Its been a couple of days since Mittens said or did something stupid, so he statisticly is due for a gaffe...

Soon...

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:36 PM

25. Here's an explanation: The fraction of independents went from 34% up to 41% between polls.


The fraction of Dems in the poll went down from 36% to 29%. Not very consistent there with your samples, Pew...

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:38 PM

27. Pew has always been an extremely reactive poll. It was pleasant, but not very realistic, with Obama

up by 8. It is not realistic any more than before..

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Response to Mass (Reply #27)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:41 PM

34. I'm Thinking It Caught All Of The Bounce From The Debate For RobMe

And it missed the ebb from the good job numbers that almost every other pollster including Rasmussen and Gallup found.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:39 PM

29. This poll was to be expected...

the only thing that matters is that we GOTV!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:40 PM

31. "Obama lost 5 points among Republicans, and Romney gained 3 point."

Ya think?

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:45 PM

38. Let's hope the bounce is transient. nt.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:45 PM

39. Its consistent with 3 strong polling days for Romney after the debates

The problem with polling after any major event is that you see the immediate effect, not the lasting effect. Gallup's 7 day tracking was actually one of the polls that did a good job of smoothing out the immediate effects because of the long time frame. Of course, they completely eviscerated their credibility by publicly disseminating the numbers for each of the 3 days after the debate. I'm not sure they have ever done that before.

luckily, I think, most people I know (even die hard liberals) don't follow the polls on a day to day basis. Its a particular form of OCD for me.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:52 PM

42. this makes me sad

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:54 PM

43. Looks like the doom and gloomers finally have their thread

 

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Response to DisabledAmerican (Reply #43)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:58 PM

44. Let them keep pushing this poll.

Any poll that shows Obama with 94 percent of the Democratic vote, and Romney with 91 percent of the Republican vote is not good news for Romney.

The poll undersampled Democrats, and Romney's gains are entirely white Republicans.

That likely had something to do with the curious drop in black support across both candidates.

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Response to DisabledAmerican (Reply #43)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:29 PM

56. Bingo. nt.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:08 PM

48. Some background on Pew....

...The Pew Research Center is funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts :

"The Trusts, a single entity, is the successor to, and sole beneficiary of, seven charitable funds established between 1948 and 1979 by J. Howard Pew, Mary Ethel Pew, Joseph N. Pew, Jr., and Mabel Pew Myrin—the adult sons and daughters of Sunoco founder Joseph N. Pew and his wife, Mary Anderson Pew. The Trusts is based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, with an office in Washington, D.C.

Although today the Pew Charitable Trusts is non-partisan and non-ideological, Joseph Pew and his heirs were themselves politically conservative. The mission of the J. Howard Pew Freedom Trust was to "acquaint the American people with the evils of bureaucracy and the values of a free market and to inform our people of the struggle, persecution, hardship, sacrifice and death by which freedom of the individual was won." Joseph N. Pew, Jr. called Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal "a gigantic scheme to raze U.S. businesses to a dead level and debase the citizenry into a mass of ballot-casting serfs."[2]

Most of the early beneficiaries were such conservative organizations as the John Birch Society, the American Liberty League, and the American Enterprise Institute,[3][4] although other beneficiaries included a cancer research institute, a museum, higher education, the American Red Cross, and historically black colleges. For many years, the Trusts tended to fund charities and conservative causes in Philadelphia.

In 2004, the Pew Trusts applied to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to change its status from private foundation to non-profit organization. Since the Pew's change to a charitable foundation, it can now raise funds freely and devote up to 5% of its budget to lobbying the public sector."


Always follow the money...it usually tells you quite a bit.

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Response to OldDem2012 (Reply #48)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:14 PM

52. This is seriously foolish

Why didn't you post this three weeks ago when they had Obama up six among likely voters?

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #52)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:27 PM

55. 1. Because I don't believe I was on the board yet....

....my first comment was posted September 26th.

2. It's not possible to comment on every single post on DU if you have other things to do.

Just my opinion, but only the "seriously foolish" turn up their noses at good background intelligence that help you understand a possible bias. You don't have to like my posts, but you need to respect me as you would any other poster on DU.

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Response to OldDem2012 (Reply #55)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:29 PM

59. No, I do not have to respect you at all

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #59)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:43 PM

66. Well, if you're going to act like a spoiled two-year-old, I'll just treat you like one. nt.

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Response to OldDem2012 (Reply #55)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:16 PM

64. I do!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:14 PM

51. Repeat after me: National polls are meaningless.

 

Nate Silver taught us this valuable lesson four years ago.

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Response to hifiguy (Reply #51)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:18 PM

54. They are what they are. n/t

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:13 PM

62. Obama had 13% support from Republicans???

REally???

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:15 PM

63. bottom line is we got to GOTV

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:53 PM

67. 100% of the move in the Pew Poll from Sep--> Oct can be explained by the change in sample.


When the percentage of Dems goes from 39--> 31%, and the percentage of Repubs jumps from 29% --> 36%, that's basically like taking 7% away from Obama and handing it to Romney right there. I'm actually surprised the October results weren't even more pro-Romney. That's not to say one poll is wrong, the other right. But because of the huge swing in voter identification between the two polls, it throws the results of all Pew polling into question.

Also of interest - the sample size for the October poll dropped from 2400 down to 1200. Why?

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