Breaking: SCOTUS agrees to hear challenge to Obama's health care bill. Bets?

[Atman]

One part of me says the GOP-led ideological majority of the court will 86 the whole deal, just because it is Obama's plan. Another part of me says the GOP-led ideological majority of the court will let it stand because it clearly benefits big industry/big business.

Thoughts?

[Myrina]

1. They're kinda in a bind with this one, aren't they?

:evilgrin:

[global1]

10. But If They Take Care Of Obama Big Business Might Lose This Battle......

but in the long run - they win the war because they help get the Repugs back in the drivers seat.

[Vincardog]

2. it clearly benefits big industry/big business. The GOP ALL business all the time

[RKP5637]

3. Whichever way benefits the corps. most will be what stands. People are

trivial and don't enter into the equation with respect to what's best for "we the people."

[Pirate Smile]

4. Upheld 7-2

[AngryAmish]

5. I think it will stand.

I've read that Scalia will vote to uphold essentially arguing that past precedent give congress unlimited power in folks lives where interstate commercial is concerned.

That is why need need a wise congress. Instead we have this one.

[Fumesucker]

6. I bet that you'll see smoke coming out of Scalia's ears on this one..

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. Seeing as how Thomas probably won't recuse himself on the matter

We can pretty much agree that he and the rest of the right-wing members of the court will AT LEAST strike down the individual mandate, the more progressive members of the Court will probably uphold all of it. The big question is what Kennedy will ultimately decide and he could probably go either way (but he seems to generally be a thoughtful person, so........). It's been really hard to say whether the GOP opposes the health care reform law because they really believe that people shouldn't be forced to purchase private insurance (despite having supported the concept in the 1990's and in Massachusetts in 2008) or if they're just opposed to it simply because it was something that President Obama got pushed through. :shrug:

[PoliticAverse]

8. Will Kagan or Thomas recuse themselves ? n/t

[pampango]

9. The SC is accepting the one appeals court decision that overturned the law.

It is not accepting the other appeals court decisions that ruled in favor of the HCR law. That sounds like the SC is poised to rule against it.

[joeybee12]

11. I know...the Gang of Five will have to struggle with how they can best hurt Obama

and also not hurt their corporate overlords who clearly benefit from the law...decisions, decisions!

[PoliticAverse]

12. They can delay hearing the case until 2015 when the tax/fee part of the mandate kicks in. n/t

[BlueIris]

13. I've said for a long time that the mandate won't make it past the Court.

So that's my bet.

[Aleric]

14. Thomas will follow Scalia

as usual

[Jim Lane]

15. I don't think they can "86 the whole deal" (the OP's words), just the mandate.

If I'm right about that, then their choice is to let the whole bill stand, or to strike down the mandate while leaving in place the ban on excluding pre-existing conditions.

That result would be disaster for the for-profit insurance companies. Millions of people, freed of the mandate, would refrain from buying health insurance, knowing that they could save their premiums while healthy and then buy a policy when and if they need it. That kind of gaming of the system is precisely what the mandate is designed to prevent.

Take away the mandate while making no other changes and all the big health insurance companies go bankrupt. We then get single-payer because it's the only way out of the resulting mess.

I'm sure Scalia and the gang would love to strike down the ban on exclusion of pre-existing conditions but I don't see how they can. The only serious constitutional argument is about the mandate.

Therefore, I predict they'll reluctantly uphold the whole thing.

My analysis assumes that the statute includes the standard severability clause, expressly providing that invalidation of one provision doesn't affect any others.

[Jim Lane]

16. dupe

[Yupster]

17. My guess is

a complicated ruling striking down parts and letting other parts stand leaving everyone confused.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

19. Now I'm confused.

:P

[kenny blankenship]

18. It will be upheld. 2 Reasons. It's the model of upcoming privatization of Social Security

If Government can compel you to tithe to financial industry for your health "care" (which BTW will not be improving any vs other countries nor getting any less expensive) GUESS WHAT ELSE you'll soon be tithing to private financial mega-corps for? Thaaaaat's Right! It's the Republican Wet Dream of the last 70 years. Social Security will be whittled away, and then become privatized. They will just follow the model set by health "care". And the "Democrats" will have started the ball rolling for it.

Secondly, the health care mafia was in crisis already in 2008. Their habit of making things expensive had gotten to be a very expensive habit! People are falling out of the system, and in ten years time costs to consumers were expected to double. If the Supreme Court doesn't uphold making the Federal Govt the enforcer for Big Insurance, the whole thing will resume its crashing and burning. People will fall out and the profits will have to be made up from a dwindling pool of policy holders. The cost spiral induced by having a useless middleman who jacks everything up year by year so they can report greater profitability to shareholders will crash the system finally definitely and completely. That would be to the good. Because then an actual health CARE system would have to be implemented at the government level, and the parasite of private insurance would have to be excised once and for all from the delivery of basic health care. In order to prevent a Single Payer system from being the eventual outcome of a collapsed private health insurance market, the Supreme Court MUST uphold the Romney-Obama Privatized Insurance Profitability Act of 2009.

There may be 5 Republicans on the Court, who probably do want to hurt Obama; but there are 9 Corporatists. In the end, presidents come and go, and the 5 Republicans will consider the long term consequence of their actions. If they rule to strike down this law, the ultimate outcome is Single Payer health care in America, aka Soshulisst Medicine! run by the Gubmint, taking over in no more than 15-20 years. Armageddon, in a word - for Republicans at least. The Republican Justices know the only salvation for the failing private sector is for the Government, rather than helping people, to instead put a gun to their heads and to force them pay whatever the Insurance Mafia say it costs. They will easily put aside their presidential election cycle aggression in order to preserve long term Republican ideological priorities and to grease the wheels of corporatism.