Irene's down to a Cat 1

[MrScorpio]

Nothing more than a slight breeze to 'cane veterans.

[cali]

1. depends. A Cat 1 with a strong storm surge in areas not protected, can

still do serious damage.

[cwydro]

2. Very disorganized right now also.

Category 1 can be a nasty day, but people should be fine.

[SoCalDem]

4. and Jim Cantore's mildly depressed

:)

good news to the people in Irene's path..fingers still crossed..

Cantore first went to Providence & then bugged out for NYC, thinking that would be the big show..

[TheCowsCameHome]

15. Cheer up, Jim. The LL Bean logo is waterproof.

[HereSince1628]

3. I am glad to see it weakening

It'd be fine with me if it just kept on weakening.

[Eddie Haskell]

5. The weather guy on Nags Head is searching for loose shingles.

He can't find any, but there was a piece of lawn furniture on its side.

[TheCowsCameHome]

10. He should check under his hat - something is damaged in there.

Don'tcha love those idiots?

[Raschel]

19. Me too! Glad for the folks out there, although I now they are still expecting very heavy rain & wind

[DCBob]

6. It will be a TS soon now that its mostly over land.

By the time it reaches NYC it will be just a bad rain storm.

[ellenrr]

13. hope so. Bloomberg was so criticized for inaction in respect to the big snowfall -

that he is now over-reacting.

altho...in all fairness - and not that I'm defending Bloomie or any politician - it can't be known what twist or turn it will take.

[DCBob]

16. actually in a situation like this its best to over-react.

especially as a mayor or other leadership role.

[Raschel]

17. I agree. Especially in the case of NYC with the water danger and high population.

It would be too difficult to evacuate in short notice.

[Harmony Blue]

21. It is hard to say at this point

it could go either way as we are in uncharted territory.

[Little Star]

7. You mean they shut down Atlantic City for nothing much????

I heard the closed the whole place down. Canceled shows, shut down the tables & slots! First time in 30 some odd years. That's a big loss for nothing much.

[DinahMoeHum]

11. So, they'll chalk it up as a hurricane DRILL and review their notes

on evacuation for natural disasters.

But this thing ain't over by a long shot. It could still go out to sea if it's moving NNE and strengthen.

Even if it does break apart before the worst gets here, we in the NYC metro area will still get heavy rain and wind, even from the remnants of this storm

Let's just get through today and tomorrow and then take stock of things.

[FLPanhandle]

20. and next time people won't listen to evacuation orders

Because of the over hyping of this storm.

[cwydro]

22. I never listened to the hype when I lived in the path of storms..

I learned to pay attention to NHC and make my own decisions.

You're right, people won't listen after too many false alarms.

[FLPanhandle]

36. Yep. We ignore the TV and just read the data from NHC.

Politicians and media are the least reliable source of information to make decisions on.

[cwydro]

38. DU is not so good to listen to either lol...

we have quite a few panic-mongers on here.

[FLPanhandle]

41. LOL

Yes, we do have a few panic mongers here. Maybe their lives are boring and just they really want some excitement.

[kdmorris]

30. Never mind...

self delete.

[TBF]

8. Happy to hear that - hope she continues to weaken. nt

[NNN0LHI]

9. Recommended

Happy to hear this.

Don

[auburngrad82]

12. It still has the potential for heavy storm surge and flooding. nt

[Major Hogwash]

14. That'll be blamed on Obama too by the end of the day at Faux Snooze.

"Obama couldn't even keep the storm up to a Cat 2 by landfall."
"When President Bush was in office we used to have great hurricanes."
"I miss those days."
"I miss Bush."
*sigh*
*sigh*

[FLPanhandle]

18. Yep. We don't even board the windows for Cat 1 Hurricanes.

Those are just entertainment.

[joshcryer]

23. Denialists are going to love to bash the modelers.

Fun times ahead.

[Harmony Blue]

24. Until this weather system breaks up

it is too early for denialists to claim victory.

My hope is that the hurricane doesn't go back over water.

[FLPanhandle]

25. The modelers never had it as bad as the media made it out to be.

The media over hyped this thing because it was NYC and the politicians reacted to the media.

NOAA had it as only a weak Cat 1 in the NYC area early yesterday but that info got lost in the ratings push.

[Broderick]

27. yep

So calm here in Virginia, where we expect maybe a max sustain winds of 50mph at best, that I am thinking of grilling out and walking the beach... Sigh. What a pant load the hype was. Yes, it is still a major storm, but in no way is this EPIC or a catastrophe like many other hurricanes have been in the past. The fact that it has a directional path to the elites that destroy this country and steal from the working class is the only reason this storm is getting hyped. I guess everyone needs a "crisis" to defect our attention from the rascals. Mother nature gave them something they could magnify to their liking.

[Harmony Blue]

28. A weak Cat 1 of this size hitting the NE

is unprecedented, so you shouldn't be proclaiming certainty at this point.

[FLPanhandle]

32. Bah.

A good Nor'easter produces winds that will be stronger than what Irene has left by the time it gets to the NE.

All hype.

[Harmony Blue]

35. Storm surge is the biggest threat from hurricanes

not wind. All Floridians know this.

[FLPanhandle]

37. Storm surge is related to wind strength too.

This doesn't have enough wind to generate a significant storm surge. Minor storm surge at best.

[Harmony Blue]

39. Hard to say given that not only wind speed determines storm surge

impact, but also the wind field size, and if it coincides with high tide.

[kdmorris]

48. And what the gradient is between land and sea bed

These are great graphics. Shows the difference between a storm surge that happens from a shallow continental shelf and a storm surges that happens with a steep continental shelf (this is also why most of the Atlantic would not see the sort of storm surges seen in the Gulf (for example, the Storm Surge with Katrina went 6-8 miles inland in some places. I'm on the Atlantic side of Florida and our evacuation zones only got 1-2 miles inland depending on the size/intensity of the storm)).

(The Gulf slopes up to land and the Atlantic is steep)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/animations/surgea.swf (Shallow Continental Shelf)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/animations/surgeb.swf (Steep Continental Shelf)

[pipi_k]

42. If it were just wind...

OK.

Maybe. Wind speeds are projected to still be at 75 MPH by the time it reaches CT and MA.

Winter storms don't usually approach that speed here.

But we're also looking at tons of rain on top of that. We have had lots of rain already in the past weeks. The ground is still saturated in some spots.

Many trees were also weakened by the tornado in June. People still have tarps on their roofs.

Wind + lots of water means it could still get very unpleasant around here.

Granted, not as bad as Andrew or Katrina, but "not as bad as" doesn't mean a thing to the people who are affected by it...

[kdmorris]

50. Pipi.. I don't think anyone is trying to say that you shouldn't be prepared

Even a minimal CAT1 storm can cause a lot of damage, especially in areas that are, as you said "already saturated" and areas like MA that don't have to deal with being under a Hurricane Warning every year. (or the areas around DC that had an earthquake last week). I don't think it was the OP's intent to make it seem like this won't be any big deal to you (though I don't know the OP). If this were on it's way to Florida though, in the same state it's currently in... I personally wouldn't see this as that big of a deal, though I would sure as hell prepare for it. BUT... I've lived here for 14 years, so I've been through a lot of these. (originally from Maryland, still have family there, and I tell them the same thing. Prepare, but don't panic. If you panic, then you cannot handle things when you need to)

You will likely have massive flooding, downed trees (and downed trees mean possible property damage) and be without power for a period of time. That is the type of stuff you need to prepare for, as much as possible. If you live on the Coast, I'm hoping you are not sitting in your beach front house right now, because who knows how far the storm surge will travel inland. And a 4-8 foot storm surge is predicted in the MA area. I agree that it will get unpleasant there. At this point, you should be done with or almost done with any preparations you need to make for the storm's passage, including evacuation, if you are in an evacuation zone.

But the East Coast isn't going to fall off the earth and it's certainly not the end of life as you know if, nor is it the "storm of a century" or "the storm to end all storms" or "like Andrew and Katrina combined in it's destructiveness" (all of which I heard on my local news when Irene passed here). That is the only problem I have with the way this storm has been handled. Because when people hear that about every storm that comes along... they eventually just tune it out and then, when they really need to listen, because the storm is just that bad, they put their own lives in jeopardy by thinking that "Well, they said that about Irene {insert name of any other "storm of the century") and it didn't happen. I can't afford to prepare/don't feel like evacuating again/I'll just turn and miss us/etc"

Hope you make it through with minimal loss to property and you get your power back ASAP (or never lose it). Listen to your local Emergency Management officials and try to ignore the "we're all gonna die" crowd. Be safe up there!

[kdmorris]

29. I don't see why

The models (and modelers) have done an amazing job with this storm. But the media, in their ratings push, haven't been giving people the news that the models (and modelers) have been putting out there.

[joshcryer]

51. Thanks for the corrections, to the above posters.

I clearly wasn't paying close enough attention, I was reading NWS reports and read into them too much.

[DCBob]

26. Latest sat image shows it may be taking an unexpected turn to the west..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

Maybe just an imagery thing.

[kdmorris]

31. That appears to possibly be deep convection

building to the west of center. But hurricanes do take jogs to the west or north all the time, so it's possible that it did that after it made landfall.

[DCBob]

34. Looks like the center of the circulation is well to the west of the expected track..

to see the expected path turn on "trop points" check box.

[kdmorris]

43. I am familiar with the site

I did say that it could have jogged to the west a bit, but until it actually misses it's next point, I would not say it's "well to the west of the expected track". Very often, tropical systems do a sort of stair stepping path but still end up with an OVERALL direction of x. To me, it still looks like the large red area is to the west of the center and the center is still on track.

That being said... be safe up there, Bob. There is likely to be flooding in the Potomoc and Patuxent rivers (Calvert County), just from the amount of water shoved into the Chesapeake.

[DCBob]

44. yes, thanks!

[kdmorris]

47. Per the NHC (11 AM Advisory)

You were right in that it was a little west of the forecast track. Instead of continuing along NNE, it did move due north for a time.

IRENE MOVED ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...BUT
HAS WOBBLED BACK TO THE RIGHT SINCE THAT TIME. SMOOTHING THROUGH
THESE TEMPORARY CHANGES IN HEADING YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 015/13 KT. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER
48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
TURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE
UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD

(Good eye :) )

[DCBob]

49. ha.. good to know I wasnt just imaging things!

albeit just a nudge.

[hedgehog]

33. Kind of early to be downplaying the media hype, IMO.

Better to wait a few days to see what happens as the storm moves north. Even without a storm surge, the rainfall could cause a lot of flooding.

In any case, the option is to evacuate people ahead of time possibly unnecessarily, or to risk people getting caught in a storm.

[Broderick]

40. It's a puppy

And the directional path will prevent the storm surge and flooding from past hurricanes that hit NC and traveled inland and poured water into the bay. This one is a dud. Long before it hit land, the buoy wind speed recorders a mere 60 miles from the center of the storm were recording 60 MPH winds. Epic my ass.

[Harmony Blue]

45. I hope it is a weakling like Gloria was

but too early to tell.

[DCBob]

46. Ominous dark clouds appearing in the southeast from my vantage point north of DC.

Should be raining buckets here soon.