How high do you think unemployment will rise to in the next 1-2 years?

[Taverner]

Poll question: How high do you think unemployment will rise to in the next 1-2 years?

Consindering that the debt bill, with all of its cuts, will kill a bunch of jobs, which in turn will kill more jobs, all because Rich White Men didn't want to lose their tax breaks...

A Full-blown depression is a foregone conclusion.

[Warren Stupidity]

1. 15% by the official numbers. nt

[Taverner]

2. That's now - and realistically its about 18%...

But it will rise...that's for sure

[Warren Stupidity]

13. no - officially now it is around 9.2%.

[maryellen99]

43. And when Romney gets in and he will

When he lets the economy default -I would say about 50%

[FSogol]

3. LOL. During the Great Depression it was only 27%.

Oh, the poutrage!

[Taverner]

5. Care to explain?

We're at 18% now (yeah on record it's 15%, but that's not counting folks who gave up)

The Great Depression will look like a cake walk after what's coming hits

If it doesn't manage to go above 30%, we will all be very lucky

[FSogol]

8. The rate is currently 9.2% (Or is this one of those wind chill/ humiditure things?)

:shrug:

[Taverner]

10. What you are referring to is the government unemployment rate

It does not take a lot of factors into account, such as (1) people who gave up looking for jobs, (2) people who have been out of work for longer than 9 months, (3) people who have run out of unemployment benefits....

You can find better numbers, you know...

[dmallind]

12. 2 and 3 are utterly false and fully included in U3

U3 has NOTHING to do with benefits or duration. The only way, other than working of course, you are excluded from U3 is if you haven't looked in a month - and if you can't be arsed to send in one CV or make one call in 4 weeks, no matter how little hopr you have of success, what the hell is the difference between that and not wanting to work?

[hobbit709]

19. And just how do they know?

Unless they call everyone in the country once a month to ask, those numbers are a WAG

[dmallind]

23. Tell me the formula for margin of error calculation then I will answer. nt

[hobbit709]

28. GIGO

[dmallind]

32. You have uncobvered evidence of wholesale lying or fasification in the household survey? Publish!

Be a hero! Bring down The Man! No more dark hints - tell all and be free!


....or, just try to cover your ass because somebody called your know-nothing shite.


I'm guessing the latter

[hobbit709]

34. How you leapt to that I don't know.

If dealing with inaccurate data input you get inaccurate data output.

I merely asked how do they determine if someone sent in a resume. I know of no one who has ever been asked that once their unemployment has run out and they no longer bother to file. They're still unemployed, but no longer counted. I'm one of those.

P.S. Thanks for your name calling:sarcasm:

[jtown1123]

21. Don't forget new college graduates who can't find jobs...

[pinqy]

14. people who aren't looking have never been counted, though.

The sort of exception is that until 1967 if someone wasn't looking specifically because they didn't think they'd find work and they were in an economically depressed area and the interviewer decided they should be unemployed, then they were counted as unemployed. That's never been a large number and even now is barely 1 million, and only raises the UE rate to 9.8% (the U-4).

[DJ13]

4. Even 30% wont be high enough to make our pols regret their vote for austerity

[NeedleCast]

6. Hyperbole Man To The Rescue

Things are a least a million bazillion times worse than reported.

Yes, in two years the US will have nearly the same level of unemployment as Somalia. That's likely.

FFS...

[RKP5637]

7. IMO we're headed into a depression. Already the "real" effective rate is around

16% to 20%. I think the methodology for unemployment and the rates spouted are ridiculous, a cover up. IMO nothing is being done to "really" create jobs. We're in the 21st century and the same old crap is being done to try to create jobs.

And some people have been in a depression now since day one. They are just ignored by MSM. I get most of my news from RT, AJZ and DU. MSM for me is just background noise.

[Taverner]

11. Yup,....

Much better than I said it

[Davis_X_Machina]

9. U3 will not exceed 10%.

[robcon]

15. Complete Bullshit thread.

You give away your stupidity: "A Full-blown depression is a foregone conclusion."

[Township75]

16. It will rise to 128%!

!

[drpepper67]

17. Has anyone visited

www.monster.com lately?

[Yavin4]

18. You Mean The Multiple Listing Recruiter Ghetto?

Monster.com is a poor indicator of employment.

[drpepper67]

25. Oh. I wasn't saying it was.

My son just got a job from there is all.

[Tuesday Afternoon]

29. that is good news. congrats to your son!

:)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. My GF Got A Job From Monster That She No Longer Has

Your desription makes me depressed because it seems to be true.

But what's the use of posting jobs that don't exist.

Plus, I can't imagine the number of applicants for every job.

[Yavin4]

42. The Majority of the Postings Are For Recruiters Looking to Build Their Databases

Recruiters want large database so that they can show them off to prospective clients. Today's recruiters hamper the job search far worse than help it.

[Little Star]

20. 30 % if they count the actual real numbers.

[snooper2]

24. The actual real numbers ROFL

Tell that to all the muthafuckers stuck on 75 southbound this morning :rofl:

Read all the information at this link,

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm


chill and watch this video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JTtI3zhOP4



Then come back to me

[snooper2]

22. God people are either stupid or fucking with you ROFL ROFL 25-30%

Come on, let's take some bets...PM me your TN and we'll chat..

I got $1000 to throw around at this one, I'll even give you 5-1 odds :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:


The stupid on DU is hurty hurty :rofl:

Back to the youtubes- the best mix of all time on youtube- - SLAMMIN!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euYCBSH3WPo&feature=related

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Think THE HEADLINE/OFFICIAL Number Goes Back Over Ten Percent

That effectively reduces the chance of Obama's reelection to less than fifty percent. In fact I don't think there's a sentient, dispassionate person who would argue that he doesn't go into this reelection campaign as the underdog, despite all the advantages of incumbency.

I think it will be 12% in 012. That's awful.

[Yo_Mama]

26. Hmm. DU is a bit math-challenged?

If this poll refers to the "official" rate (U3), it is currently 9.2%. I don't think it is going to double or triple on cuts of at most 25 billion in two years. If all of that occurred in one year, it would be about 0.001% of total GDP. That will not change the unemployment rate much.

Official is U3. U4 - Unemployed plus discouraged workers (people who did not actively look for work because they believed there was no chance) is 9.8%. U5 - U4 plus marginally attached - is 10.7%. U6 - U5 plus people working part-time because that's all they can find - is 16.2%.

The official stats are here:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Inflation, which is causing the the year over year drops in real wages, is a much more serious economic drag:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.t01.htm

To provide us all another index as to likely effect, let's think about gas prices:
http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

On page 2 of that report you can look at how much Americans spent on gas in June 2011 compared to June 2010. The total was about 9 billion more - in one month. So over three months the effect of higher gas prices will total to a much greater net effect on the US economy than the debt deal.

Assume that the net debt and later adjustments total to 50 billion (more than double the estimated effect) over two years. Still, if gas prices remain where they are now, over the next two years the estimated drop in discretionary spending will be 168 billion.

Since DU already knows what has happened to unemployment rates from the current rise in gas prices, which is a much greater economic drag than the proposed cuts, I don't understand why anyone would think that unemployment is suddenly going to rise astronomically over the much smaller amounts contained in the debt deal?

[salin]

30. I think there will be an uptick

due to the continuing declining revenues - and reciprocal layoffs that will happen at the federal and state govt levels.

Not the crazy numbers offered in this poll, mind you. Maybe another 2-3%

I think increased fuel costs will keep spurring shopping cart inflation (at the stores - where the transportation costs often get passed on) will be another drag on the economy, as you point out.

I think continued contractions in consumer spending will also keep playing a role in preventing any real change in the economic picture.

[Yo_Mama]

35. More realistic

However all the increase in unemployment we are going to see won't be from the debt deal, and in fact not much of it will be.

The US unemployment rate has risen from 8.8% in March to 9.2% in June. That was basically from cart inflation, as you so rightly point out. People are running out of money to spend on utilities, groceries and transportation, so they are cutting discretionary spending which chops jobs fast. And indeed, that did happen - from March to June, US seasonally adjusted employment on the household survey fell from 139,864 to 139,334 - a loss of over 500,000 jobs, which is quite statistically significant.

So we were in a declining economic trajectory before this ever passed, losing jobs already, and experiencing the knock-on effects of declining real wages, which were causing more job losses. Which sets up another recession, which fact has been blindingly obvious for the last couple of months.

IMO the much more serious economic damage was done last December, when Congress and the President failed to extend unemployment benefits, raised federal taxes on the bottom 40% of wage earners, and drastically cut federal taxes for a lot of high earners. That was pure death, economically speaking.

And then let's not forget the Fed, which launched its epically stupid QE2 program, which promptly created inflation and cut real incomes.

It is even arguable that the debt limit deal will increase real growth over the next two years, because there is a strong monetary component to our current collapsing economy. The Fed's professed willingness to keep throwing money has bolstered the confidence of commodity traders who should be running for the exits and instead are throwing kerosene on the economic bonfire.

However even commodity traders may realize that the Federal government is going to be facing a crunch, and that the Fed will be correspondingly constrained (the Fed had asked the Federal government to indulge in more fiscal stimulus along with its QE2 program).

So in the wake of the deal it appears that the confidence of commodity traders is badly shaken, and if that produces less speculation, it may ease our economic decline.

[salin]

37. that is a little ray of hope at the end of your post

per scaled back speculation. Thanks - not seeing many rays of light.

Great post.

[Yo_Mama]

39. Well, if the news that Obama wants to do it again is right...

My projected economic trajectory is pretty bad.

I am referring to the FICA tax cuts, and all the reports that Obama is going to ask Congress to extend them.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4900838

This was a huge giveaway to anyone earning over 75K a year. If your wages are 100K, that's a $2000 tax cut! But in combination they also cut the Making Work Pay tax credit, which was limited to $400 dollars and phased out for higher earners.

So - raise taxes on some poor schmoe making 15K, give a professor earning 145K a $2,000 tax cut. Oh, yes, this shows up in the real economy. It's not the people paying $500 for a handbag who create the need for most of the jobs in the country - it's your average joe or josephine. So when you follow regressive tax policies, and regressive monetary policies, you screw up the economy.

Anyone looking at the fact that Campbell's Soup has to expand outside the country, because people in this country can't buy their product, and 40% increases in high-end department store sales, knows exactly what's going on.

Obama did something that not even Ronald Reagan did. I don't know what Obama's real beliefs are, but he is governing kind of like an oligarch, and it's not working. It appears he has not learned anything yet.

I don't think he's evil. I think he's stupid. Politically astute, but in real-world matters, dumb as can be. He talks to rich people and nutty college professors, and whatever they say, he believes. This guy's so dumb he takes the head of GE and asks him how to make the economy work. I guess GE's not going to be paying any taxes for the next decade!

[Imajika]

33. These choices are pretty absurd...

Assuming we are talking about the official unemployment rate, it is likely to be between 8.5% - 10.5% by November 2012.

"A Full-blown depression is a foregone conclusion."

LOL, no it is not. Sluggish growth or a possible minor double dip recession is far more likely. Think lost decade rather than full blown depression.

[jpak]

36. 23349040044 Brazillion pwercent!!!!111

:D

[area51]

38. Unemployment

According to this article is already 30½%, which is worse than the '30s Depression.

[Liberal_in_LA]

40. i hope it goes down

[lumberjack_jeff]

41. The number to watch is the employment/population ratio.

In 2000 it was 65%. Today it's 58%.

In 2014 I give 50:50 odds that it reaches 50%.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

[readmoreoften]

44. I think the official rate will be between 12 and 15%