If we don't touch social security...

[dkf]

   ● The projected point at which the combined Trust Funds will be exhausted comes in 2036 -- one year sooner than projected last year. At that time, there will be sufficient non-interest income coming in to pay about 77 percent of scheduled benefits.

http://seniorjournal.com/NEWS/SocialSecurity/2011/20110515-SocSecTrusteesProject.htm


The projected date of HI Trust Fund exhaustion is 2024, five years earlier than estimated in last year’s report, at which time dedicated revenues would be sufficient to pay 90 percent of HI costs. The share of HI expenditures that can be financed with HI dedicated revenues is projected to decline slowly to 75 percent in 2045, and then to rise slowly, reaching 88 percent in 2085. Over 75 years, HI’s actuarial imbalance is estimated to be equivalent to 21 percent of tax receipts or 17 percent of program outlays.

The key dates regarding cash flows are shown in the following table.

KEY DATES FOR THE TRUST FUNDS
  OASI DI OASDI HI
First year outgo exceeds income excluding interesta 2017 2005 2010 2008
First year outgo exceeds income including interesta 2025 2009 2023 2008
Year trust funds are exhausted. 2038 2018 2036 2024


http://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/index.html

[Trajan]

1. Lift the income limit ...

BAM done ....

[in_cog_ni_to]

3. That's too easy. n/t

[R. P. McMurphy]

6. +1

[dkf]

8. Payout increases too then.

[dflprincess]

2. The answer is to remove the income cap n/t

[The Magistrate]

4. You Know, Ma'am, even the Soviets Contented themselves With Five Year Plans

And they, bear in mind, reserved the right to shoot people who did not work up to snuff.

No twenty-five year prediction has ever come close to describing the reality that eventuated....

[dkf]

7. Then forget planning and just let whatever happen happen.

The thinking is that we can prevent these cuts but we can just let it be too.

Frankly 75% payout is better than I expect so I would be happy. I think it's best we all prepare for a deeper cut than that.

[The Magistrate]

9. Seriously, Ma'am: Go Examine the Record

Find in the twentieth century any period of twenty-five years in which economic predictions at its beginning were not made hash of by the passing of a quarter century.

You might as well sort through the innards of a freshly slaughtered lamb....

[dkf]

13. Yeah the predictions said we would have a surplus in the SS trust funds longer than this.

Sometimes it's worse than expected you know.

[The Magistrate]

16. You Need To Tighten Up Your Game, Ma'am

Find me an economic projection for a twenty-five year period during the last century that events did not make hash of. Pick any decade you like; you will be unable to find one.

the problem with guesses of the sort you are touting is that they are linear projections off different portions of a curve, which curve is the wave-form of a cycle of unknown frequency and amplitude. Even when made by well-intentioned people, they cannot be accurate. The change in projection you reference illustrates the problem; the earlier projection did not envision the drop in employment and slowing of economic activity presently found. The new projection sets up for the same mistake in reverse; it assumes the present malaise will continue. But the history of economic activity in the modern period is one of discontinuity, of radical shifts in technology and practices, based on breakthroughs and innovations that are by their very nature unpredictable. The fact is that no one has the slightest idea what economic conditions will be ten, fifteen, or twenty-five years from now. The only thing more foolish than pretending to such knowledge is believing people who make such a pretense.

[valerief]

5. If we don't stop waging war, well, we'll be up shit's creek without a paddle. nt

[girl gone mad]

10. The Trust Fund can be supplemented from the US government at any time,

as was done in 1982.

The US government can always fund its social security obligations. There is no need for a Trust Fund to begin with. The idea that a sovereign government needs to save money in a special account in order to be able to pay for future commitments is completely absurd.

[suffragette]

11. Sounds like we need more stimulus, job creation,

an end of subsidies to companies that outsource labor, and a stop to payroll tax cuts.
Those all address work force and funding issues.


Throw in an end to tax cuts for the wealthy, ending the wars and reduction of military budget and a redirection of funding for excessive "security" operations to projects encouraging innovation in emerging industries such as sustainable energy so the "crisis" situation created by these choices is resolved and not used as an excuse to raid essential social services.

[Pholus]

12. Here are some more links supporting you. You'll especially like Michelle Bachmann's comments.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/michelebachmann/2009/09/08/social_security_is_broke

http://www.nationalreview.com/exchequer/258075/cbo-social-security-now-officially-broke

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_050710/content/01125114.guest.html

http://biggovernment.com/publius/2010/03/25/social-security-in-the-red-six-years-early/

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,591002,00.html

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[girl gone mad]

17. Seems to me you are unhappy that a government program functions precisely as intended..

with decades of success and stability and a guaranteed ability to pay its beneficiaries.

Would you prefer if people were dependent on Wall Street gamblers and con men to fund their retirements?

[jtown1123]

15. Please read James Galbraith, Dean Baker, Paul Krugman and other real economists on SS. Unrec