IA POLL: Newt 33, Romney 18, Paul 18. -- SC POLL: Newt 38, Romney 22.

[jefferson_dem]

Bwahahahaha...

Polls: Gingrich Leads in Iowa, S.C.
By Steven Shepard

Updated: December 6, 2011 | 6:29 a.m.
December 6, 2011 | 6:10 a.m.

Former House Speaker and GOP presidential contender Newt Gingrich leads in the key early states of Iowa and South Carolina, according to two new polls that underscore that he is poised to claim two of the first three contests in the Republican presidential nominating process.

Gingrich leads the field in the Hawkeye State with 33 percent of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers supporting him, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll released early on Tuesday. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, are tied for second place, with 18 percent each. Texas Gov. Rick Perry is fourth, with 11 percent. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is at 8 percent, while former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., is at 7 percent. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who is not actively campaigning in the Hawkeye State, earned just 2 percent. Three percent are undecided.

The poll was conducted Nov. 30-Dec. 4, largely before embattled businessman Herman Cain withdrew from the race amid allegations that he had sexually harassed women. Cain supporters were reallocated based on their second choice.

Iowa will kick off the nominating process with caucuses on Jan. 3.

In South Carolina, which holds its primary on Jan. 21, Gingrich held a significant lead over Romney of 38 percent to 22 percent, according to a Winthrop University poll. Perry was third, with 9 percent, followed by Cain with 7 percent, Bachmann at 5 percent, Paul at 4 percent, Santorum at 3 percent and Huntsman at 1 percent. Nine percent of likely primary voters are undecided.

<SNIP>

http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/polls-gingrich-leads-in-iowa-s-c--20111206

[oberliner]

1. If Rom loses NH he is in big troub

Specially since he won't win the other 2.

Where does that leave things?

[joshcryer]

3. Yeah, but if Romney pulls through, it'll be all over for Newt. "Comeback kid" and all.

Note that I don't know how this will go given the utter chaos of the Republican field right now.

[customerserviceguy]

6. Romney can't win more than NH

and a few western states with substantial Mormon populations. Unless Newt self-destructs (still possible, but looking less likely every day) he'll win Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida. He'll be crowned the putative nominee, because Huntsman, Santorum, Bachmann, and possibly even Perry will have done so poorly that they'll have pulled out. Perry may have a large warchest, but all he can do with it is destroy Mitt.

[joshcryer]

7. Fair enough. Any comments on Paul creeping up on Romney?

[oberliner]

10. Paul has a hard ceiling

I don't see him crashing past it.

[TheWraith]

18. I agree. He's as much of a niche candidate as Romney is.

Paul might manage to place second, but I don't think he has any staying power past Iowa and maybe a better than expected showing in New Hampshire.

[customerserviceguy]

14. Paul has more Republicons who distrust him than Romney does

Paul attracts a fringe element that, absent him, wouldn't be voting Repuke, or possibly at all. There's no one else like him out there, on either side of the aisle, and he's the kind you either love or hate, you don't learn to love him. Yes, in caucus states where massive turnout by a highly motivated minority means something, Paul's going to grab some delegates. But he's never going to get above the 12-15 percent range in a primary where independents are not allowed to participate.

In fact, I'm seriously hoping that Paul controls about that percentage (or maybe greater) proportion of delegates by the time the Rethugs get to Tampa, with Mittens holding his 30 percent, Newt with 40-45, and perhaps even Perry or Bachmann hanging on to their 10-15 percent. I'd love to have either the Newt side or the Mitt side think that the other one 'stole' the nomination, you would have massive defections to third parties in the general election, and it offers the President a considerable edge in his fight to be re-elected.

[oberliner]

9. He can win Florida

I think Mitt will do well in Florida if he takes NH.

[customerserviceguy]

15. I can't see that happening

Yes, there are a lot of Northeasterners down in Florida, that might have some fond memories of Mitt in MA, but not nearly enough to make a difference. I don't seem to remember Giuliani doing well down there four years ago.

Current polling shows Newt with nearly three times the strength of Romney : http://www.politico.com/2012-election/florida

And that's with Cain still getting a couple of points less than Mitt. I predict that the lion's share of his support goes to Newt, with extremely little of it to Romney.

[oberliner]

17. Bookmark this page!

I strongly disagree with your prediction.

I guess we will see how it plays out.

I see the RW'ers coalescing around Mitt in the not so distant future.

[customerserviceguy]

19. Bookmarked!

And we only have a very short time to see who's right. Maybe we should put a wager on it, some California microbrew against some real NY maple syrup, for example.

[joshcryer]

20. Ha! Cute. Can't wait to see who's right. Not far off, as you say.

Fun times ahead!

[customerserviceguy]

21. Somehow, I feel that watching Repuke primary battles

is a bit like supporting bull or cockfighting. But, I guess they don't feel true pain the way other sentient creatures do...

[WI_DEM]

13. it depends on how big Romney wins NH

it has always been considered a solid state for him, but if he wins by only a few points it's over for Romney. It would be like when Johnson 'won' NH over McCarthy in '68 or Muskie 'won' NH over McGovern in '72--closer than expected so the press turned losses for McCarthy and McGovern into wins.

[jefferson_dem]

2. In Iowa, Newt spanks Romney in every category, including trust on the economy (31-20).

Mittens is in a heap of trouble.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_120411.html

[joshcryer]

5. What's interesting is how Paul is eeking up to Perry.

Could the Republican chaos of a primary really lead to a Paul nomination!?

[customerserviceguy]

16. No freaking way

Paul's way too noninterventionist for your average Republicon. They know that his voters are not a regular part of the GOP base, they're fringe elements that are only too happy to vote for a libertarian, and they don't care which party such an individual comes from.

[joshcryer]

4. Please. please, let it be Newt.

Please!

[tomm2thumbs]

8. newt gets the joke

although I wonder if Mitt Romney's budget can handle shoveling more cash into the machine to pull this one out of the hat

his spending is good for the economy -- sort of like Meg Whitman's was in California. What we need are more rich, dumb Republicans with an eye for fame - THAT will help the economy!




Have another Tiffany's ring ma' dear.

[AlinPA]

11. It's over for Romney before a vote is cast.

[Armin-A]

12. look at the comments

on the posted link.....


Okay so heres the game.... get a pen and paper ready and tally how many times you laugh

[center rising]

22. Republicans continue to shoot themselves

[AtomicKitten]

23. I'm calling it for Newt in Iowa, Romney in NH, and Newt in So. Carolina.

It's possible Newt will flame out before the first vote is cast, but I think the teabaggers know they've tried on every pair of mommy's shoes and need to pick a pair. I think Newt's a keeper. I'm buying a gallon size bucket for popcorn to watch the clown show because with Newt it is sure to be spectacular.